Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) for seismic site characterization using 2D genetic algorithm at Bahrah area,Wadi Fatima,Saudi Arabia

The present study deals with the seismic site classification of Bahrah area, Wadi Fatima, to characterize the local site conditions. The dynamic behavior of sediments was studied by the application of surface wave inversion. The multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) shallow geophysical technique was utilized for site classification. MASW survey was carried out at 66 sites along with 13 seismic refraction profiles at suitable localities. MASW and seismic refraction profiles were processed and compared with the available borehole data. The integration of MASW techniques with seismic refraction and borehole data progressively enhanced the subsurface visualization and reliability of the shear wave velocity estimation in the subsurface in the study area. The subsurface shear-wave velocity model was achieved by the solution of an inverse problem-based dispersion of surface waves and propagation in a vertically heterogeneous medium. The 2D genetic algorithm was employed for the inversion of dispersion curves to obtain velocity and thickness of subsurface layers. The depth to engineering bedrock and velocity of shear waves in the first 30 m was deciphered and mapped. The depth of bedrock in study area varies from 4 to 30 m, and V _{S 30} ranges from 320 to 800 m/s. The most of study area falls in B and C class categories in addition to few sites of D class according to the NEHRP guidelines.     

Red Sea faulting and salt diapirism as a potential geotechnical hazard in Jazan,southwest Saudi Arabia: inferences from gravity data

Natural Hazards - The main objective of this study is to detect the subsurface extension of salt diapirs and structural deformations in the city of Jazan and its suburbs using gravity data. Salt...     

Structural Setting and Kinematic Analysis of the Halaban Region,Eastern Arabian Shield,Saudi Arabia

The vorticity analysis technique was applied to measure the different lithological units,such as schist,metagranite and metavolcano-sedimentary rocks,which are present in the Halaban region.This work aims to interpret the relationship between the different lithologies and the tectonic setting,in order to elucidate the nature of kinematic analysis in the Halaban region.The kinematic analyses were applied to feldspar porphyroclasts,quartz and hornblende for twentysix samples.The kinematic vorticity number (W_m) for deformed rocks in the study area ranged from～0.6 to 0.9.The direction of the long axes for finite strain data (X axes) revealed a WNW trend with shallow dipping.The direction of the short axes for finite strain data (Z axes) were represented by vertical with associated horizontal foliation.The results of the kinematic vorticity and strain analyses are characterized by simple shear with different degrees of deformation in the Halaban region.Furthermore,our finite strain data shows no significant volume change during deformation.The subhorizontal foliation was synchronized with thrusting and deformation.Furthermore,throughout the overlying nappes,the same attitudes of tectonic contacts are observable,the nappes in the orogens being formed from simple shear deformation.     

A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain

Natural Hazards - The increase of frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change gives evidence of severe challenges faced by infrastructure systems. Among them, the...     

Nature,origin and evolution of a Late Pleistocene incised valley‐fill,Sunda Shelf,Southeast Asia

Understanding the stratigraphic fill and reconstructing the palaeo‐hydrology of incised valleys can help to constrain those factors that controlled their origin, evolution and regional significance. This condition is addressed through the analysis of a large (up to 18 km wide by 80 m deep) and exceptionally well‐imaged Late Pleistocene incised valley from the Sunda Shelf (South China Sea) based on shallow three‐dimensional seismic data from a large (11 500 km²), ‘merge’ survey, supplemented with site survey data (boreholes and seismic). This approach has enabled the characterization of the planform geometry, cross‐sectional area and internal stratigraphic architecture, which together allow reconstruction of the palaeo‐hydrology. The valley‐fill displays five notable stratigraphic features: (i) it is considerably larger than other seismically resolvable channel forms and can be traced for at least 180 km along its length; (ii) it is located in the axial part of the Malay Basin; (iii) the youngest part of the valley‐fill is dominated by a large (600 m wide and 23 m deep), high‐sinuosity channel, with well‐developed lateral accretion surfaces; (iv) the immediately adjacent interfluves contain much smaller, dendritic channel systems, which resemble tributaries that drained into the larger incised valley system; and (v) a ca 16 m thick, shell‐bearing, Holocene clay caps the valley‐fill. The dimension, basin location and palaeo‐hydrology of this incised valley leads to the conclusion that it represents the trunk river, which flowed along the length of the Malay Basin; it connected the Gulf of Thailand in the north with the South China Sea in the south‐east. The length of the river system (>1200 km long) enables examination of the upstream to downstream controls on the evolution of the incised valley, including sea‐level, climate and tectonics. The valley size, orientation and palaeo‐hydrology suggest close interaction between the regional tectonic framework, low‐angle shelf physiography and a humid‐tropical climatic setting.     

Building the Hindu Kush: monazite records of terrane accretion,plutonism and the evolution of the Himalaya–Karakoram–Tibet orogen

In situ U‐Th/Pb (LA‐ICP‐MS) monazite ages from the Hindu Kush of NW Pakistan provide new petrochronologic constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Himalaya–Karakoram–Tibet orogen. Monazites from two adjacent garnet + staurolite schist specimens yield multiple age populations that record the major Mesozoic and Cenozoic deformational, magmatic and metamorphic events along the southern margin of Eurasia. These include the accretion of the Hindu Kush–SW Pamir to Eurasia during the Late Triassic, followed by the accretion of the Karakoram terrane in the Early Jurassic. Younger Jurassic and Cretaceous ages record the development of an Andean‐style volcanic arc along the southern Eurasian margin, which ended with the docking of the Kohistan island arc and the emplacement of the Kohistan–Ladakh batholith during the Late Cretaceous. The initial Eocene collision of India with Eurasia was followed by widespread high‐temperature metamorphism and anatexis associated with crustal thickening within the Himalaya system in the Late Oligocene and Early Miocene.     

Hydrochemical assessment of groundwater from shallow aquifers in parts of Wadi Al Hamad,Madinah, Saudi Arabia

The present study was carried out in the Mulaylih area which forms a part of Wadi Al Hamad in the Madinah Province of Saudi Arabia. Thirty groundwater samples from agricultural farms were collected and analyzed for various physio-chemical parameters including trace elements. The area is occupied by the Quaternary alluvium deposits which form shallow unconfined aquifers. Evaporation and ion exchange are the major processes which control the major ion chemistry of the area. The extreme aridity has results in high total dissolved solid values (average of 9793.47 mg/l). Trace element concentrations are low and are mainly attributed to geogenic sources (silicate weathering). Na-Cl groundwater type is the main hydrochemical facies found in the area. The waters are found to be oversaturated with calcite/aragonite and dolomite. The average nitrate concentration was found to be 134.10 mg/l and is much higher than the WHO recommended limit of 50 mg/l in drinking water. Their high values are mainly associated with the application of N-fertilizers on the agricultural farms. The average fluoride concentration in the study was found to be 1.54 mg/l. The relation between F and Cl and Cl and Na reveals that the fluoride concentrations are mainly attributed to geogenic sources. A comparison of the groundwater quality with the Saudi drinking water standards shows that the water is unfit for drinking. The high salinity and sodicity of the groundwater make it unfit for irrigation. Principal component analysis resulted in extraction of four principal components accounting for 79.5% of the total data variability and supports the fact that the natural hydrochemical processes (evaporation and ion exchange) control the overall groundwater chemistry.     

Application of diffracted wave analysis to time‐lapse seismic data for CO2 leakage detection

Time‐lapse seismic analysis is utilized in CO₂ geosequestration to verify the CO₂ containment within a reservoir. A major risk associated with geosequestration is a possible leakage of CO₂ from the storage formation into overlaying formations. To mitigate this risk, the deployment of carbon capture and storage projects requires fast and reliable detection of relatively small volumes of CO₂ outside the storage formation. To do this, it is necessary to predict typical seepage scenarios and improve subsurface seepage detection methods. In this work we present a technique for CO₂ monitoring based on the detection of diffracted waves in time‐lapse seismic data. In the case of CO₂ seepage, the migrating plume might form small secondary accumulations that would produce diffracted, rather than reflected waves. From time‐lapse data analysis, we are able to separate the diffracted waves from the predominant reflections in order to image the small CO₂ plumes. To explore possibilities to detect relatively small amounts of CO₂, we performed synthetic time‐lapse seismic modelling based on the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) Otway project data. The detection method is based on defining the CO₂ location by measuring the coherency of the signal along diffraction offset‐traveltime curves. The technique is applied to a time‐lapse stacked section using a stacking velocity to construct offset‐traveltime curves. Given the amount of noise found in the surface seismic data, the predicted minimum detectable amount of CO₂ is 1000–2000 tonnes. This method was also applied to real data obtained from a time‐lapse seismic physical model. The use of diffractions rather than reflections for monitoring small amounts of CO₂ can enhance the capability of subsurface monitoring in CO₂ geosequestration projects.