STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS OF BINARY TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN SUMMER: CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS FOR ACTIVE AND INACTIVE YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

Using the 1949-2007 western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) best-track data archived at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the western North Pacific from 1949 to 2007,both the characteristics of binary and multiple TCs and samples of interactions among TCs and multi-TCs are identified and statistically analyzed.According to the various features of individual TC tracks and interacting tracks,seven distinct types are proposed to describe the binary system of TCs and their interaction samples.The mean trajectories of the west and east component of binary TCs in each type are obtained using a new cluster analysis technique.These types are then analyzed in terms of landfall process,occurrence seasonality,coexistent lifetime,especially the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation.Finally,typical steering flows and conceptual models of the binary TCs at different phases are established based on six-hourly flow maps of the binary system and the averages are determined of the mean steering flow of ten representative binary TCs.Then,typical steering flows and conceptual models at the beginning,middle and final phase in each type are established to describe the large-scale circulation patterns of the binary system interaction types.     

Development of an integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme and its associated numerical experiments

An integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme, based on the vertical Kuo-Anthes and the slantwise Nordeng convective parameterization schemes, is introduced into the MM5 model. By employing the MM5 model with the proposed scheme, numerical simulations of a snowstorm event that occurred over southern China on 28-29 January 2008 and of Typhoon Haitang (2005) are conducted. The results indicate that during the snowstorm event, the atmosphere was convectively stable in the vertical directi...     

应用位涡分析1214号台风“天秤”异常路径

1214号台风"天秤"在移动过程中出现异常转向的极端个例,其路径呈近180°逆转向,以及强度的多次变化,使得"天秤"的路径预报十分困难。本文采用NCEP再分析资料,从位涡的观点结合天气学形势分析,以及应用兰金涡的假设对台风"天秤"异常转向路径进行诊断分析研究。结果表明:(1)藤原效应,高空槽的东移,副高位置稳定少动是导致"天秤"接近180°转向的主要原因。(2)"天秤"与1215号台风"布拉万"的逆时针互旋是造成"天秤"异常路径的关键因子,在藤原效应中,"天秤"受到主要影响。(3)"布拉万"向西北方向的移动,影响了副高的西伸。高空槽通过对下游大陆高压的影响,进一步间接影响了"天秤"的运动,这类异常路径的形成是大尺度环境场与藤原效应相互作用的结果。     

CHAMP卫星观测的热层大气密度变化特征

采用2001-2010年CHAMP（CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload）卫星高精度加速度计反演的热层大气总质量密度观测数据,对400 km高度大气密度的变化特征进行了分析与研究。结果表明,太阳辐射高低整体上控制着热层大气密度数值大小变化,在太阳宁静期热层大气密度受地磁活动控制,其最大值区域在地磁12-18时（地方时）内移动,重复周期为4~5个月,与地磁活动的Ap指数变化相似。对比经验模式与CHAMP卫星观测值,两者偏差纬向分布较均匀,经向变化明显;当太阳活动处于中低水平即F_10.7小于120时,模式值偏高5%~10%;当F_10.7大于130时,模式值偏低10%以上。为经验模式的改进提供相应的参考。     

一次大气波导过程的数值模拟

利用ARPS模式对南京周围地区的一次大气波导过程进行了数值模拟,通过对南京站初始时刻、 6 h和14 h的模拟结果分析表明:同化探空资料的初始场较NCEP资料更接近实况,初始场对预报结果的影响具有一定的持续性,且同化了探空资料的初始场的模拟结果比未同化探空资料的初始场的模拟结果较接近于真实大气状况;同化多个测站探空资料的数值模拟表明ARPS模式对大气波导具有一定的预报能力.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON A DYNAMIC ASYMMETRICAL TYPHOON INITIALIZATION SCHEME BASED ON 4D-VAR

Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six summer typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.     

热带气旋内中尺度波动的不稳定机理研究进展

在回顾了近年来热带气旋波动动力学研究的基础上,介绍了热带气旋内中尺度波动不稳定机理研究方面的进展,分别对热带气旋三类中尺度特征波动的不稳定,即经典重力惯性波、涡旋Rossby波和具有物理性质不可分的混合波的不稳定进行了物理分析,给出了热带气旋内对称不稳定、横波不稳定、对流对称不稳定、涡旋Rossby波正压不稳定及混合波不稳定的动力解释,进一步说明热带气旋内中尺度扰动发展是与基本气流的动力(水平和垂直切变)及热力状态之间的相互作用密切相关。     

应用ATOVS资料和非对称Bogus资料对登陆台风韦帕的4DVAR数值模拟分析

前人研究中BDA方法采用的轴对称Bogus台风不能反映个别台风具体特征并弃掉了背景场的合理成分,也没有考虑大环境场的影响及湿热要素的同化。因此,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实际观测信息并考虑副高影响的精细非对称台风Bogus方法,并在MM5的伴随同化系统中引入快速辐射传输模式RTTOV8,通过四维变分同化(4DVAR)技术,加入海面风场和气压场Bogus资料及多颗卫星多条轨道上的ATOVS红外和微波卫星辐射亮温资料并考虑Noah陆面过程方案来对登陆台风韦帕进行数值模拟,结果表明,单独同化海面Bogus资料的BDA方案可间接产生初始场非对称三维环流结构和暖心结构,但对湿度场及台风周围大环境场的调整不足,台风登陆后的路径预报改善也不明显;引入陆面过程方案弥补了Bogus资料对台风登陆后路径预报的不足;加入ATOVS资料能对湿度场及台风周围环境场做出调整,重构了大量中尺度结构信息,取得更为精细的初始台风环流和温压湿场结构,保持BDA方案路径及强度预报的优势的同时,使预报的降水强度增加,降水落区发生改变。     

几种台风初始化方法及其对比实验

利用中尺度MM5V3模式及其伴随系统，运用四维变分同化方法，将Bogus台风作为观测资料进而优化台风初始场，对0422号台风个例进行了数值模拟和试验，并与传统Bogus方法和Nudging方法进行比较。结果表明，经过BDA方案优化的台风初始场更加接近实际台风的结构，有效地提高了台风路径和强度预报的准确率。     

消去分析台风方法的对比研究

详细分析了GFDL飓风模式和MM5模式消去分析台风的原理, 通过10个台风个例的对比分析指出, GFDL方案从平均意义上求取分析台风中心位置和半径的方法, 优于MM5方案采用涡度极值来确定分析台风中心以及将分析台风中心半径定为常数的方法。而MM5方案考虑要素场之间的协调, 较GFDL方案更为合理。试验结果表明:通过将两者优点相结合对MM5方案进行修正, 能够更加合理、彻底地消去分析台风。