1961—2015年中国降水面积变化特征研究

基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐月与逐日降水量网格数据集，采用线性趋势、克里金插值（Kriging）、森斜率等方法，分析1961—2015年中国3个自然区的降水量和降水面积的变化特征。结果表明：（1） 中国1961—2015年年均和季节平均降水量呈现由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的空间分布特征，中国一半以上的地区年均和四季降水量呈增加趋势。（2） 日变化特征上，东部季风区、西北干旱区和青藏高寒区均以小雨和中雨为主，其日降水面积多年平均值分别为：1 112.75×10³ km²、52.65×10³ km²，1 380.57×10³ km²、92.83×10³ km²，1 253.9×10³ km²、34.3×10³ km²，暴雨和大暴雨占的面积较小；三个区域不同等级日降水面积年内变化均符合二次函数曲线，三个区小雨日平均降水面积年际变化均呈略微减少趋势，青藏高寒区和西北干旱区大雨、暴雨和大暴雨均呈略微增加趋势，大暴雨整体波动较大。（3） 季节变化特征上，三个区四季均以小雨为主，暴雨和大暴雨所占面积较少。春季和秋季三个区小雨降水面积均呈减少趋势，春季和夏季三个区暴雨降水面积均呈增加趋势，冬季三个区中雨和大雨降水面积呈增加趋势。（4） 东部季风区春季和秋季，西北干旱区年均和四季，青藏高寒区春季、秋季和冬季不同等级降水量对应的降水面积均符合负指数分布规律。km²     

基于温度作为辅助变量的中国降水δ^18O空间分布特征

本研究利用从WorldClim获得的高分辨率气象数据分析稳定同位素温度效应,研究发现最热季度的平均气温与中国62个站点同位素年平均值之间表现出很好的相关性（R2=0．79）。在此基础上利用地统计学方法,也就是采用温度作为辅助变量的空间插值算法——局部平均的简单克里金法（Simple Kriging with locally varying mean,SKlm）,对中国降水中稳定同位素年平均值空间分布进行了模拟,得到了较高分辨率的中国降水中年均δ^18O空间分布图,该图能够较好地表现区域同位素变化模式,能够反映如降水汽团的来源、性质等的气候环境背景,也能在一定程度上反映包括当地的纬度、地形、海拔高度等在内的局部地理因素。     

1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析(英文)

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1:50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/ 2011 were also analyzed. The results show that:(1) In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin's glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km~2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km~2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800.(2) Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change.(3) Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate.(4) Analysis of the six meteorological stations' annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to some extent.     

1962–2011年长江流域极端气温变化（英文）

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2011,the methods of linear regression,principal component analysis and correlation analysis are employed to investigate the temporal variability and spatial distribution of temperature extremes.Sixteen indices of extreme temperature are selected.The results are as follows:(1) The occurrence of cold days,cold nights,ice days,frost days and cold spell duration indicator has significantly decreased by –0.84,–2.78,–0.48,–3.29 and –0.67 days per decade,respectively.While the occurrence of warm days,warm nights,summer days,tropical nights,warm spell duration indicator and growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 2.24,2.86,2.93,1.80,0.83 and 2.30 days per decade,respectively.The tendency rate of the coldest day,coldest night,warmest day,warmest night and diurnal temperature range is 0.33,0.47,0.16,0.19 and –0.07℃ per decade,respectively.(2) The magnitudes of changes in cold indices(cold nights,coldest day and coldest night) are obviously greater than those of warm indices(warm nights,warmest day and warmest night).The change ranges of night indices(warm nights and cold nights) are larger than those of day indices(warm days and cold days),which indicates that the change of day and night temperature is asymmetrical.(3) Spatially,the regionally averaged values of cold indices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are larger than those in the middle and lower reaches.However,the regionally averaged values of most warm indices(except warm spell duration indicator) and growing season length in the middle and lower reaches are larger than those in the upper reaches.(4) The extreme temperature indices are well correlated with each other except diurnal temperature range.     

黄河流域降水稳定同位素的云下二次蒸发效应

雨滴从云底降落到地面过程的云下二次蒸发现象会影响雨滴中的同位素比率，明确降水过程中稳定同位素的变化对研究流域水循环具有重要意义。基于全球降水同位素网络（GNIP）、相关文献同位素数据以及气象数据，首先建立局地大气水线（LMWL）定性分析了黄河流域云下二次蒸发与各气象要素间的关系，其次运用改进的Stewart模型定量计算了蒸发剩余比（f）和云底降水与地面降水的D-excess之差（Δd）。结果表明：（1） 黄河流域LMWL方程为：δ²H=7.01δ¹⁸O+1.25（n=293，R²=0.92），斜率和截距相比GMWL均较小，说明雨滴在下落过程中受到云下二次蒸发的影响。其中0～10 mm的降雨事件对云下二次蒸发影响显著；气温越高，或者水汽压、相对湿度越小，云下二次蒸发越强烈。（2） 季节变化上，从春季到冬季， f和Δd逐渐增大，云下二次蒸发逐渐减小。空间变化上，蒙甘区、蒙中区、晋陕甘区和渭河区的西安，年际间云下二次蒸发变化较大，而青南区、祁连-青海湖区、渭河区的平凉、长武、华山和鲁淮区年际差异较小。（3） 降水中Δd和f之间的线性关系在不同气象要素范围内有不同的数值，由于不同区域各气象条件存在差异，因此在应用经验公式时需考虑研究区的具体气象条件。     

近50 年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征

利用中国气象局整编的1960-2009 年西南地区108 站逐日气温、降水等资料,计算年、月地表湿润指数,并进行标准化,统计极端干旱发生频率,对年际、年代际、季风期和非季风期的极端干旱变化特征进行分析,得出结论：(1) 整体上,四川盆地西南部、横断山区南端、广西南部沿海和贵州北部是近50 年来年极端干旱发生频率明显增加的地区;年代际变化上,20 世纪60-80 年代极端干旱呈逐渐减少趋势,高发区交替出现在东南-西北-东,90 年代下降明显,整个地区都转湿,进入21 世纪后,极端干旱距平呈现正距平,且增幅较大,区域间差异却显著减小。(2) 季风期与非季风期的极端干旱变化有很大差异,季风期极端干旱频率在不断增加,多发生在四川盆地周边海拔较高的山区、广西大部和“帚形山脉”地带,海拔对季风期极端干旱发生频率有一定影响;非季风期缓慢下降,整体偏湿。(3) 通过滑动t 检验和小波分析发现,季风期西南极端干旱在2003 年发生突变,非季风期在1989 年突变,年极端干旱发生频率是季风期和非季风期的突变叠加的结果;年极端干旱存在准5年和准12 年的周期变化。     

“蒸发悖论”在黄河流域的探讨

利用黄河流域72个气象站点1960-2010年的气象资料,系统分析了过去51年间气温、降水量以及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势,研究了气温、降水量与潜在蒸散量之间的长期变化趋势关系,对影响潜在蒸散量下降的主要因子进行了探讨,重点对黄河流域是否存在“蒸发悖论”进行验证.研究结果表明:(1)过去51年间,黄河流域内气温增加显著、潜在蒸散量呈下降趋势,总体上存在“蒸发悖论”;(2)“蒸发悖论”具有空间上和时间上的不一致性,随着气温增加,春、夏、冬三季潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,减少区域主要集中于山西、河南大部分区域以及甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西等少部分区域;时间上主要表现在1960-1979年潜在蒸散量变化趋势不明显,1980-2010年气温与潜在蒸散量变化趋势在空间分布上的逆向关系更加明显;(3)过去51年间,降水量无论是年际还是夏、秋季变化趋势都不明显,降水量与潜在蒸散量时空变化分布上大体呈现逆向变化关系;(4)从气象要素变化对潜在蒸散量变化的贡献率来看,近51年来风速的明显减小是导致黄河流域潜在蒸散量减少的主导因素.     

基于高分辨率格点数据的1961-2013年青藏高原雪雨比变化

基于国家气象信息中心发布的1961-2013年全国0.5° × 0.5°逐日降水量和日平均气温格点数据集以及气象站点日降水量和日平均气温实测资料,采用森斜率,M-K突变分析,IDW空间插值以及小波分析等方法,对近53年来青藏高原的降水量,降雨量,降雪量以及雪雨比的时空变化,突变和周期等特征进行了分析.结果表明:① 从时间尺度上看,青藏高原的降水量和降雨量总体呈增加趋势,增加幅度分别为0.6 mm·a^-1(p < 0.05)和1.3 mm·a^-1(p < 0.001);而降雪量和雪雨比均呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别为0.6 mm·a^-1(p < 0.01)和0.5% a^-1(p < 0.001).② 从空间分布上看,青藏高原的大部分地区降水量和降雨量呈增加趋势,而降雪量却呈现减少趋势.因此,雪雨比在青藏高原相应呈现减少趋势.③ 突变和周期分析表明,青藏高原降水量,降雨量,降雪量和雪雨比的突变时间分别出现在2005,2004,1996和1998年左右,而周期变化集中为5年,10年,16年,20年左右.④ 青藏高原降水量倾向率和降雨量倾向率均随海拔的升高呈现出先降低后升高的变化趋势,降雪量倾向率随海拔的升高而降低,雪雨比倾向率随海拔的升高呈微弱的下降趋势.