吉林省产业发展与能源消费实证研究

在吉林省经济能源发展特征分析基础上,利用协整理论、指数分解法和线性对数函数分析了吉林省2000-2011 年能源消费和经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：① 能源消费与经济增长存在一种长期因果关系,每增加1 亿元GDP就要消费1.758 万t 标准煤,表明吉林省的经济发展属于能源依赖型;② 如果其他因素不变,1979-2011 年吉林省累计的5390.05 万t 标准煤的能源消费量实际增长中,单纯经济总产出变化带来的增加量为6518.135 万t 标准煤;单纯产业结构变化引起的增加量为1895.739 万t 标准煤;单纯产业能源强度变化引起的减少量为3023.82万t 标准煤;③ 2000-2011 年吉林省能源消费强度相对指数分解结果可以看出,以2000 年作为基年,2011 年的能源强度为2000 年的88%,效率指数和结构指数分别为2000 年的72%和121%。④ 从产业结构变动与能源消费强度的关系来看,总能源消费强度的变动与所有的结构因素都是相关的;煤炭消费强度对工业结构变化最为敏感;石油消费强度的结构因素多于煤炭;电力消费强度的变动与所有的结构因素都是相关的。⑤ 就结构变动的影响程度来看,农业比重下降有助于综合能源消费强度、煤炭消费强度、电力消费强度的降低。农业比重变化对综合能源消费强度和电力消费强度影响大于第三产业和第二产业比重变化对这两者能源消费强度的影响。对于煤炭消费强度、天然气消费强度的影响作用最强的产业是工业,石油消费强度与批发零售、交通运输和工业结构变化有关。     

吉林省产业发展与能源效率研究(英文)

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is revealed by employing cointegration theory, the index decomposition method, and a log-linear regression approach based on a case study of Jilin Province, China. The results suggest: 1) the economic development and energy consumption are interdetermined, whose relationship is positive and long-term. The economic development is highly depending on the energy in Jilin Province. 2) Under the condition of other unchanged factors, the change of industrial energy efficiency contributes to the energy saving, while that of industrial structure increases the energy consumption. 3) The industrial structure change enhances the energy intensity, but the energy utility efficiency change lowers it. From the view of contribution to the energy consumption, the contribution of industrial structure was more than that of the energy utility efficiency in 2000-2011. 4) In 2000-2011, the comprehensive energy intensity change and hydroelectricity energy intensity change were related to all industrial structures' change, and the influencing factors about structure of oil energy intensity change were more than those of coal energy intensity change; from the impact degree, agricultural proportion decreased exerted an positive and greater effect on lowering the energy intensity of comprehensive energy and hydroelectricity, and industrial one did on coal and natural gas. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: the major way to promote the coordinated development of the industrial economy and energy consumption is to optimize the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and low energy consumption industrial sectors and to enhance the energy utility efficiency.     

磷矿市场走势分析

经过了50余年的持续增长,全球磷肥和磷矿市场自2012年下半年以来出现了下行趋势,属必然发生的理性回归,其根本原因为市场误导出现的产能过剩。磷块岩产量主要受制于磷肥消耗量,二者存在高度正相关性。目前条件下,全球磷肥和磷块岩年消耗量的极限分别约为38.9Mt和172.49Mt,未来一个时期,年消耗量走势分别在各自的极限值上下波动。国家有关部门应从宏观层面进行布局和指导,企业不应盲目"跟风",以避免出现"周期性的危机"。     

夜光藻高效培养方法建立及其有性繁殖发生机制的初步研究

夜光藻(Noctilucascintillans)是典型的赤潮生物,在世界多个海域形成过大面积赤潮,对海洋生态系统构成一定的威胁。夜光藻赤潮的发生不仅受外界环境因子的影响,其有性繁殖的方式在赤潮发生过程中也起着重要作用。本研究从连云港海域分离获得一株夜光藻,利用自行设计的饵料藻投喂装置,以天然海水为培养基,在温度20～25℃范围内实现了夜光藻的室内长期培养,并观察记录了夜光藻配子发生全过程。研究结果表明,夜光藻不同生长阶段培养体系中配子母细胞与营养细胞密度变化趋势基本一致,显示夜光藻的有性繁殖发生与种群丰度存在一定的相关性,但它们之间的因果关系还有待进一步探讨。本研究结果加深了对夜光藻有性繁殖的认识,有助于阐明其种群增长模式,并深入理解其赤潮暴发机制。