地图线状要素眼动识别的朴素贝叶斯方法

眼动追踪技术在人机交互、用户行为识别、预测等方面得到了广泛应用,但是如何自动识别用户的地图阅读行为,眼动行为仍具有一定的挑战性.本文提出了一种基于朴素贝叶斯分类模型的方法识别用户阅读地图线状要素时的眼动行为.本试验首先通过25名被试者阅读地图过程中的眼动行为进行数据采集,然后提取了250个眼动特征并对其进行离散化处理,采用最小冗余最大相关方法进行特征选择排序.结果显示,当采用信息熵法,特征数量为m=5时分类准确率最大为78.27％;而采用信息差法,特征数量为m=4时分类准确率达到最大值为77.01％.本文提出的基于朴素贝叶斯的方法在准确率方面优于已有研究方法.此外,由于特征数量的减少,大幅提高了算法的执行效率.本文提出的地图阅读行为眼动识别方法,为未来眼控交互式地图研究奠定基础.     

CNS/SINS组合导航系统的UKF算法研究

天文/捷联惯性（CNS/SINS）组合导航系统采用姿态组合,可使姿态角处于收敛状态,并有效抑制位置及速度的发散。为提高组合导航系统的精度,本文设计了CNS/SINS组合导航系统的UKF算法,在建立CNS/SINS组合导航系统非线性状态方程及线性量测方程的基础上,首先对UKF的量测更新过程进行简化,降低其计算量;然后,基于平台误差角提出系统状态协方差矩阵中姿态角协方差矩阵的计算方法,并推导了UKF算法中姿态量测值一步预测误差对应的平台角误差向量表达式,进而建立CNS/SINS组合导航系统的UKF算法;最后进行仿真实验。结果表明,相对于线性卡尔曼滤波算法及EKF算法,本文算法可明显提高组合导航系统的各导航参数精度,并且本文算法对滤波器初始姿态角误差变化具有较高的鲁棒性。     

The aerosol radiative effect on a severe haze episode in the Yangtze River Delta

Due to increased aerosol emissions and unfavorable weather conditions, severe haze events have occurred frequently in China in the last 10 years. In addition, the interaction between the boundary layer and the aerosol radiative effect may be another important factor in haze formation. To better understand the effect of this interaction, the aerosol radiative effect on a severe haze episode that took place in December 2013 was investigated by using two WRF-Chem model simulations with different aerosol configurations. The results showed that the maximal reduction of regional average surface shortwave radiation, latent heat, and sensible heat during this event were 88, 12, and 37 W m^–2, respectively. The planetary boundary layer height, daytime temperature, and wind speed dropped by 276 m, 1°C, and 0.33 m s^–1, respectively. The ventilation coefficient dropped by 8%–24% for in the central and northwestern Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The upper level of the atmosphere was warmed and the lower level was cooled, which stabilized the stratification. In a word, the dispersion ability of the atmosphere was weakened due to the aerosol radiative feedback. Additional results showed that the PM_2.5 concentration in the central and northwestern YRD increased by 6–18 μg m^–3, which is less than 15% of the average PM_2.5 concentration during the severely polluted period in this area. The vertical profile showed that the PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations increased below 950 hPa, with a maximum increase of 7 and 8 μg m^–3, respectively. Concentrations reduced between 950 and 800 hPa, however, with a maximum reduction of 3.5 and 4.5 μg m^–3, respectively. Generally, the aerosol radiative effect aggravated the level of pollution, but the effect was limited, and this haze event was mainly caused by the stagnant meteorological conditions. The interaction between the boundary layer and the aerosol radiative effect may have been less important than the large-scale static weather conditions for the formation of this haze episode.     

黄河流域能源消费碳排放时空格局演变及影响因素——基于DMSP/OLS与NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据

科学估算并动态监测长时间序列区域能源消费碳排放发展态势,是制定、实施及评估地区碳减排策略的科学依据和基础保障。基于构建的长时间序列可相互比较的DMSP/OLS与NPP/VIIRS两种夜间灯光数据集,本文模拟了2000—2018年黄河流域能源消费碳排放的时空变化特征,并从流域地理分异的角度对其影响因素进行解析。结果表明：① 2000—2018年黄河流域能源消费碳排放呈现总量不断上升但增长速率下降的态势,整体表现出收敛趋势,但还未达到碳峰值;流域内部碳排放总量呈中游>下游>上游的地理分异特征。② 以黄河干流及主要支流为串联的核心城市形成了若干规模不一的高密度碳排放中心。③ 黄河流域碳排放呈显著的正的全局空间自相关,并形成了以晋陕蒙资源型城市为依托的中上游碳排放高-高集聚,以及上游甘青宁地区为主的碳排放低-低集聚。④ 经济发展水平对碳排放空间分异的影响力始终最强,其次为城镇化水平与人口规模,“GDP+”能源结构、能源强度与产业结构所主导的交互作用是导致碳排放持续增长的主要推动力。从构建流域生命共同体的视角出发,结合黄河流域自然环境特点与经济社会特征,并统筹上下游、左右岸、干支流之间的关系,分区施策与分时施策并行,对实现以碳减排为目标的黄河流域生态保护与可持续发展意义重大。     

Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models

Worldwide, the majority of rapidly growing neighborhoods are found in the Global South. They often exhibit different building construction and development patterns than the Global North, and urban climate research in many such neighborhoods has to date been sparse. This study presents local-scale observations of net radiation (Q _* ) and sensible heat flux (Q _H ) from a lightweight low-rise neighborhood in the desert climate of Andacollo, Chile, and compares observations with results from a process-based urban energy-balance model (TUF3D) and a local-scale empirical model (LUMPS) for a 14-day period in autumn 2009. This is a unique neighborhood-climate combination in the urban energy-balance literature, and results show good agreement between observations and models for Q _* and Q _H . The unmeasured latent heat flux (Q _E ) is modeled with an updated version of TUF3D and two versions of LUMPS (a forward and inverse application). Both LUMPS implementations predict slightly higher Q _E than TUF3D, which may indicate a bias in LUMPS parameters towards mid-latitude, non-desert climates. Overall, the energy balance is dominated by sensible and storage heat fluxes with mean daytime Bowen ratios of 2.57 (observed Q _H /LUMPS Q _E )–3.46 (TUF3D). Storage heat flux (ΔQ _S ) is modeled with TUF3D, the empirical objective hysteresis model (OHM), and the inverse LUMPS implementation. Agreement between models is generally good; the OHM-predicted diurnal cycle deviates somewhat relative to the other two models, likely because OHM coefficients are not specified for the roof and wall construction materials found in this neighborhood. New facet-scale and local-scale OHM coefficients are developed based on modeled ΔQ _S and observed Q _* . Coefficients in the empirical models OHM and LUMPS are derived from observations in primarily non-desert climates in European/North American neighborhoods and must be updated as measurements in lightweight low-rise (and other) neighborhoods in various climates become available.     

CINRAD/SA雷达伺服电机连续故障诊断分析

CINRAD/SA天气雷达投入业务运行以来,在天线伺服系统方面出现了很多次故障,而直流方位电机是天线伺服系统的主要组成部分也是发生故障较多的部件之一。2014年福建长乐CINRAD/SA天气雷达在重大天气保障过程中,连续发生方位电机卡死造成雷达停机和测速机性能降低引起天线转速不稳造成雷达产品异常的故障;根据天线控制信号流程,通过运行雷达RDASOT测试程序、测量直流方位电机阻值、测量测速机反馈电压等方法,分析其故障的成因,对雷达伺服直流电机故障分析及解决方法有重要的指导作用。     

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-EA-II domain using the COSMO-CLM model

The COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model is applied to perform regional climate simulation over the second phase of CORDEX-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II) domain in this study. Driven by the ERAInterim reanalysis data, the model was integrated from 1988 to 2010 with a high resolution of 0.22°. The model’s ability to reproduce mean climatology and climatic extremes is evaluated based on various aspects. The CCLM model is capable of capturing the basic features of the East Asia climate, including the seasonal mean patterns, interannual variations, annual cycles and climate extreme indices for both surface air temperature and precipitation. Some biases are evident in certain areas and seasons. Warm and wet biases appear in the arid and semi-arid areas over the northwestern and northern parts of the domain. The simulated climate over the Tibetan Plateau is colder and wetter than the observations, while South China, East China, and India are drier. The model biases may be caused by the simulated anticyclonic and cyclonic biases in low-level circulations, the simulated water vapor content biases, and the inadequate physical parameterizations in the CCLM model. A parallel 0.44° simulation is conducted and the comparison results show some added value introduced by the higher resolution 0.22° simulation. As a result, the CCLM model could be an adequate member for the next stage of the CORDEX-EA project, while further studies should be encouraged.     

冬季黑潮暖流区加热异常对东亚副热带西风急流影响的数值研究

通过对大气环流格点模式GAMIL性能的检验表明, 模式较好地再现了东亚地区大气环流型态、高空西风急流变化及表面加热场的季节变化。在此基础上, 设计敏感性试验研究了冬季西太平洋黑潮暖流关键区加热异常对高空西风急流影响, 数值试验结果表明冬季西太平洋黑潮暖流区加热正异常将引起东亚大槽偏东, 大陆冷高压、阿留申低压及位于低纬太平洋上的西太平洋副高均有所增强, 从而导致了冬季风环流加强。相应地, 东北太平洋上出现了明显的气旋差值环流, 而在中高纬大陆海洋交界地区出现反气旋式差值环流; 同时, 西风急流区南侧的低纬地区位势高度及温度场为正异常, 而北侧的中高纬地区为负异常, 这种分布将使得急流区经向气压梯度和南北温差加大, 导致急流的增强。模式结果分别从热力适应理论及热成风的角度验证了黑潮暖流区表面加热异常对急流的影响机理。     

湘西北2008年初持续冰雪灾害及对椪柑影响分析

2008年初湘西北出现了自1956年有气象记录以来低温持续时间最长、冰冻范围最大、强度最强的一次低温雨雪冰冻天气过程,罕见的特大冰冻灾害给当地支柱产业之一的椪柑生产带来严重影响.本文从天气学和农业气象学角度出发,对低温雨雪造成的椪柑冻害及椪柑成果的贮藏、销售影响进行了详细评估,旨在为湘西北椪柑生产恢复与制定防灾减灾措施提出科学依据.