A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

天山-准噶尔地区地震层析成像与壳幔结构

通过对东西天山两条天然地震剖面的远震P波与近震P波走时资料以及2001-2007年新疆地方台网的近震走时资料分析,获得了天山-准噶尔地区的三维地震层析图像.层析反演使用的台站数140个,地震事件1132个,P波走时数24904条.检测板试验结果指出,东西天山剖面、天山轴部和东准噶尔地区P波速度扰动恢复能力相对高.纵波波...     

从亚洲大陆块体拼贴过程看大陆造山带的形成与演化

本文就亚洲大陆喜马拉雅造山带和大别-苏鲁造山带构造演化模式进行详细评述,并据大地构造学和古地磁学最新研究成果讨论并总结大陆造山带形成与演化模式,即大陆碰撞造山带的演化可能涉及以下5个连续的过程: 碰撞旋转拼合陆内挤压反弹.     

Tectonic facies and the archipelago-accretion process of the West Kunlun,China

A tectonic facies investigation carried out in the West Kunlun, China allows us to have worked out a tectonic model of orogen. The tectonic facies, from the north to the south, are composed of the following: 1. Southern Tarim tectonic realm; 2. North Kudi magmatic arc; 3. Kudi mélange; 4. Kudi micro-continent; 5. main shear zone; 6. Xianan Bridge calc alkaline complex; 7. Mazar-Kangxiwar mélange-accretion complex; and 8. Tianshuihai foreland fold-thrust belt. The tectonic facies 1»5 recorded the history of the northward subduction of the Prototethys and southward accretion of Eurasia in the Late Proterozoic-Early Paleozoic time, while the tectonic facies 6»8 recorded the history of the northward subduction of the Paleotethys and southward accretion of Eurasia in the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic time, that of the tectonic evolution of the passive margin of the Qiangtang block, and that of the docking, and the final amalgamation of the Qiangtang block to the Eurasian continent. The tectonic facies investigation has indicated that a complicated archipelago-accretion orogenesis took place in the West Kunlun orogen, which was the important character of southward growth of the Eurasian continent.

     

气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究

气候对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的定量影响是目前生态脆弱敏感区对气候变化响应领域的研究热点问题。前人已在气候变化对农牧交错带界线的定性影响方面有较为深刻的认识,但仍缺乏在时间和空间上对气候贡献率进行有针对性的定量辨识。本文利用1970年以来长时间序列的国家气象站点数据和土地利用遥感解译数据,分别提取了基于气候要素和土地利用的20世纪70年代、80年代、90年代和21世纪前10年4个时期的北方农牧交错带界线,通过垂直和水平方向变动探测方法（FishNet）和界线变迁方向变动探测方法（DSAS）对气候界线与土地利用界线的时空变化进行探测,定量分析了不同时期气候对农牧交错带界线变迁影响的贡献率。结果表明,气候与土地利用界线空间分布格局及气候贡献率在不同时期、不同区域差异较大,在西北地区变幅最小,东北地区变幅最大。在大兴安岭东南缘农田控制水源涵养生态功能区西北段以及内蒙古高原东南缘农、林、牧业生态—生产功能区西北段,气候与土地利用界线空间耦合关系最为密切,在该地区基于FishNet方法下水平方向上气候贡献率达10.7%~44.4%,垂直方向上达4.7%~55.9%;基于DSAS方法下气候贡献率为1.1%~16.8%。两种方法探测结果大部分趋于一致,但DSAS方法精度高,适用于小范围精确探测;FishNet方法更简单,适用于精度要求不高、快速直观的统计分析。本研究可为北方农牧交错带内农牧业生产适应气候变化、合理开发土地生产潜力、保护农牧交错带区内生态环境提供科学依据和指导。     

Vegetation of Mangroves： Spatial and Temporal Pattern of itsDominant Populations in Futian National Nature Reserve

The community characteristics of mangroves in the Futian Nature Reserve,Shenzhen, China are given based on surveying of 33 quadrats in 4 transects which stretch from the higher tidal zone to the lower tidal zone. The results show that there are 6 community types in this area: Kandelia candel association, Avicennia marina association, A egiceras corniculatum association, Kandelia candel Aegiceras corniculatum association,degiceras corniculatum Kandelia candel association and Acanthus ilicifolius association.Kandelia candel, degiceras corniculatum and dvicennia marina dominate the typicalquadrats. Kandelia candel can be seen at almost all quadrats, Aegiceras corniculatumdistributes mostly toward the estuary and the higher tidal zone, Avicennia marina distributesmostly toward the bay and the lower tidal zone, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza occasionally occurs toward the Estuary with one or several individuals, Acanthus ilicifolius was common towardthe higher tidal zone, as an accompanying species, Derris trifoliata was common in manymature ouadrats. Totallv. 6 snecies of man~rove plants and 3 soecies of semi-mangrove plants appear in this research area. From the higher tidal zone to the lower tidal zone, the average diameter and basal area of mangrove trees increase gradually. According to the results, the dvicennia marina dominates in average diameter and basal area, and the degicerascorniculatum trees are on the contrary. From the transect ! to the transect 4, the importance value ot dvicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Kandelia candel decreases, and degiceras corniculatum increases. In this area, the Kandelia candel population and Ae giceras corniculatum population are developing populations with many seedlings and saplings, but the Avicennia marina population is in a mature stage with few seedlings and not so many total individuals. According to this research, we suppose that Aegiceras corniculatum should be developed toward the estuary and the dvicennia marina association should be protected.     

中国土地利用变化遥感研究的回顾与展望——基于陈述彭学术思想的引领

20世纪80年代以来中国社会经济快速发展带来的工业化、城市化正深刻影响着中国土地利用空间格局并影响到区域和国家生态与环境状况。在陈述彭先生指导下,1992年以来中国科学院建立起了完整的土地利用/覆盖变化遥感监测与数据分析技术路线,以及独特的分类体系和动态区划体系,奠定了中国LUCC信息平台的基础。本文在系统回顾陈述彭学术思想指导中国LUCC研究的基础上,面向国家需求与国际科技前沿梳理了我国LUCC研究的核心科学问题,并总结了中国科学院团队在最近20年LUCC研究取得的成果,包括土地利用/覆盖动态时空表征与分析模型、土地利用/覆盖变化过程及驱动机制、基于大数据和云计算的土地利用/覆盖变化探测方法、城市土地利用变化的区域气候/生态效应、气候变化与土地利用变化对农田生态系统的影响、林业活动的区域气候/生态效应,在此基础上对未来LUCC研究的前景进行了展望。