Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

     

Analytic Element Modeling of Steady Interface Flow in Multilayer Aquifers Using AnAqSim

This paper presents the analytic element modeling approach implemented in the software AnAqSim for simulating steady groundwater flow with a sharp fresh‐salt interface in multilayer (three‐dimensional) aquifer systems. Compared with numerical methods for variable‐density interface modeling, this approach allows quick model construction and can yield useful guidance about the three‐dimensional configuration of an interface even at a large scale. The approach employs subdomains and multiple layers as outlined by Fitts (2010) with the addition of discharge potentials for shallow interface flow (Strack 1989). The following simplifying assumptions are made: steady flow, a sharp interface between fresh‐ and salt water, static salt water, and no resistance to vertical flow and hydrostatic heads within each fresh water layer. A key component of this approach is a transition to a thin fixed minimum fresh water thickness mode when the fresh water thickness approaches zero. This allows the solution to converge and determine the steady interface position without a long transient simulation. The approach is checked against the widely used numerical codes SEAWAT and SWI/MODFLOW and a hypothetical application of the method to a coastal wellfield is presented.     

The transition from complex crater to peak-ring basin on the Moon: New observations from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument

Impact craters on planetary bodies transition with increasing size from simple, to complex, to peak-ring basins and finally to multi-ring basins. Important to understanding the relationship between complex craters with central peaks and multi-ring basins is the analysis of protobasins (exhibiting a rim crest and interior ring plus a central peak) and peak-ring basins (exhibiting a rim crest and an interior ring). New data have permitted improved portrayal and classification of these transitional features on the Moon. We used new 128 pixel/degree gridded topographic data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, combined with image mosaics, to conduct a survey of craters >50 km in diameter on the Moon and to update the existing catalogs of lunar peak-ring basins and protobasins. Our updated catalog includes 17 peak-ring basins (rim-crest diameters range from 207 km to 582 km, geometric mean = 343 km) and 3 protobasins (137-170 km, geometric mean = 157 km). Several basins inferred to be multi-ring basins in prior studies (Apollo, Moscoviense, Grimaldi, Freundlich-Sharonov, Coulomb-Sarton, and Korolev) are now classified as peak-ring basins due to their similarities with lunar peak-ring basin morphologies and absence of definitive topographic ring structures greater than two in number. We also include in our catalog 23 craters exhibiting small ring-like clusters of peaks (50-205 km, geometric mean = 81 km); one (Humboldt) exhibits a rim-crest diameter and an interior morphology that may be uniquely transitional to the process of forming peak rings. A power-law fit to ring diameters (D_ring) and rim-crest diameters (D_r) of peak-ring basins on the Moon [D_ring = 0.14 ± 0.10(D_r)^1.21±0.13] reveals a trend that is very similar to a power-law fit to peak-ring basin diameters on Mercury [D_ring = 0.25 ± 0.14(D_rim)^1.13±0.10] [Baker, D.M.H. et al. [2011]. Planet. Space Sci., in press]. Plots of ring/rim-crest ratios versus rim-crest diameters for peak-ring basins and protobasins on the Moon also reveal a continuous, nonlinear trend that is similar to trends observed for Mercury and Venus and suggest that protobasins and peak-ring basins are parts of a continuum of basin morphologies. The surface density of peak-ring basins on the Moon (4.5 × 10⁻⁷ per km²) is a factor of two less than Mercury (9.9 × 10⁻⁷ per km²), which may be a function of their widely different mean impact velocities (19.4 km/s and 42.5 km/s, respectively) and differences in peak-ring basin onset diameters. New calculations of the onset diameter for peak-ring basins on the Moon and the terrestrial planets re-affirm previous analyses that the Moon has the largest onset diameter for peak-ring basins in the inner Solar System. Comparisons of the predictions of models for the formation of peak-ring basins with the characteristics of the new basin catalog for the Moon suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. In particular, a power-law model of growth of an interior melt cavity with increasing crater diameter is consistent with power-law fits to the peak-ring basin data for the Moon and Mercury. We suggest that the relationship between the depth of melting and depth of the transient cavity offers a plausible control on the onset diameter and subsequent development of peak-ring basins and also multi-ring basins, which is consistent with both planetary gravitational acceleration and mean impact velocity being important in determining the onset of basin morphological forms on the terrestrial planets.     

An automated cross‐correlation based event detection technique and its application to a surface passive data set

In studies on heavy oil, shale reservoirs, tight gas and enhanced geothermal systems, the use of surface passive seismic data to monitor induced microseismicity due to the fluid flow in the subsurface is becoming more common. However, in most studies passive seismic records contain days and months of data and manually analysing the data can be expensive and inaccurate. Moreover, in the presence of noise, detecting the arrival of weak microseismic events becomes challenging. Hence, the use of an automated, accurate and computationally fast technique for event detection in passive seismic data is essential. The conventional automatic event identification algorithm computes a running‐window energy ratio of the short‐term average to the long‐term average of the passive seismic data for each trace. We show that for the common case of a low signal‐to‐noise ratio in surface passive records, the conventional method is not sufficiently effective at event identification. Here, we extend the conventional algorithm by introducing a technique that is based on the cross‐correlation of the energy ratios computed by the conventional method. With our technique we can measure the similarities amongst the computed energy ratios at different traces. Our approach is successful at improving the detectability of events with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio that are not detectable with the conventional algorithm. Also, our algorithm has the advantage to identify if an event is common to all stations (a regional event) or to a limited number of stations (a local event). We provide examples of applying our technique to synthetic data and a field surface passive data set recorded at a geothermal site.     

Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Differential developmental toxicity of naphthoic acid isomers in medaka (Oryzias latipes) embryos

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread persistent pollutants that readily undergo biotic and abiotic conversion to numerous transformation products in rivers, lakes and estuarine sediments. Here we characterize the developmental toxicity of four PAH transformation products each structural isomers of hydroxynaphthoic acid: 1H2NA, 2H1NA, 2H3NA, and 6H2NA. Medaka fish (Oryzias latipes) embryos and eleutheroembryos were used to determine toxicity. A 96-well micro-plate format was used to establish a robust, statistically significant platform for assessment of early life stages. Individual naphthoic acid isomers demonstrated a rank order of toxicity with 1H2NA > 2H1NA > 2H3NA > 6H2NA being more toxic. Abnormalities of circulatory system were most pronounced including pericardial edema and tube heart. To determine if HNA isomers were AhR ligands, spatial-temporal expression and activity of CYP1A was measured via in vivo EROD assessments. qPCR measurement of CYP1A induction proved different between isomers dosed at respective concentrations affecting 50% of exposed individuals (EC50s). In vitro, all ANH isomers transactivated mouse AhR using a medaka CYP1A promoter specific reporter assay. Circulatory abnormalities followed P450 induction and response was consistent with PAH toxicity. A 96-well micro-plates proved suitable as exposure chambers and provided statistically sound evaluations as well as efficient toxicity screens. Our results demonstrate the use of medaka embryos for toxicity analysis thereby achieving REACH objectives for the reduction of adult animal testing in toxicity evaluations.     

A requiem for the IFQ in US fisheries?

Despite their apparent economic benefits to harvesters, individual fishing quotas (IFQs) have only been adopted in three US fisheries: Mid-Atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog; South Atlantic wreckfish; and, North Pacific halibut and sablefish. During the 1996 reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Congress temporarily blocked implementation of additional IFQ programs in US fisheries. In this paper, we argue that because of the emergence of an alternative, the cooperative, it is unlikely that new IFQs will be adopted in federally managed US fisheries. From an economic perspective, cooperatives offer the advantage of eliminating production externalities that may remain under an IFQ program with relatively large owner classes. More significantly, development of IFQ programs appears to be increasingly overwhelmed by the proliferation of both equity concerns and seemingly interminable rent-seeking behavior — both issues that can effectively block adoption of IFQs. Ironically (and paradoxically?), by reducing the scope of the equity issues acknowledged, the cooperative alternative narrows the pool of claimants and modifies the behavior of the remainder, making implementation more likely. A further irony exists in that IFQs are widely thought to be best designed at the local/regional level while part of the appeal of the cooperative model is that it appears to shortcut the often protracted nature of the local/regional political process by relying on direct intervention from Washington, DC, in the form of actions by Congress or the Justice Department.     

A Long-Term Decrease of the Mid-Size Segmentation Lengths Observed in the He <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> (30.4 nm) Solar EUV Emission

Power spectra of segmentation-cell length (a dominant length scale of EUV emission in the transition region) from full-disk He?ii extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during periods of quiet-Sun conditions for a time interval from 1996 to 2015 were analyzed. The spatial power as a function of the spatial frequency from about 0.04 to 0.27 (EIT) or up to 0.48 (AIA) Mm^?1 depends on the distribution of the observed segmentation-cell dimensions – a structure of the solar EUV network. The temporal variations of the spatial power reported by Didkovsky and Gurman (Solar Phys. 289, 153, 2014) were suggested as decreases at the mid-spatial frequencies for the compared spectra when the power curves at the highest spatial frequencies of 0.5 pix^?1 were adjusted to match each other. This approach has been extended in this work to compare spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies expressed in the solar spatial frequency units of Mm^?1. A model of EIT and AIA spatial responses allowed us to directly compare spatial spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies for five years of joint operation of EIT and AIA, from 2010 to 2015. Based on this approach, we represent these ratio changes as a long-term network transformation that may be interpreted as a continuous dissipation of mid-size network structures to the smaller-size structures in the transition region. In contrast to expected cycling of the segmentation-cell dimension structures and associated spatial power in the spectra with the solar cycle, the spectra demonstrate a significant and steady change of the EUV network. The temporal trend across these structural spectra is not critically sensitive to any long-term instrumental changes, e.g. degradation of sensitivity, but to the change of the segmentation-cell dimensions of the EUV network structure.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

Towards global space geodetic mapping of the dynamic deformation field after great earthquakes

GPS systems can be used as seismometers by sampling ground positions to detect travelling seismic waves. Data from dense geodetic networks near large earthquakes have been used to improve magnitude estimates, for tsunami warning, and to better understand the rupture processes. Here, we present 1 Hz GPS records of the March 11th, 2011, Mw = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake at unprecedented teleseismic distances. The spatial and temporal variations of the three‐dimensional GPS displacement vector field show various body waves, Love and Rayleigh surface waves along the direct path, and Love waves from the more than 31 000 km long major arc path. These results suggest that seismic wavefields can be mapped at teleseismic distances globally using space geodesy and could thus be used for source and structural studies. Data from numerous real‐time kinematic GPS networks could be combined to show the displacement field, giving unparalleled views of Earth's response to large earthquakes.