Using advanced soft computing techniques for regional shoreline geoid model estimation and evaluation

This study aims at evaluating the global geoid model for a regional shoreline fitting using advanced soft computing techniques and global navigation satellite system/leveling measurements. Artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, and least square support vector machine models are developed and used to fit the global geoid model for the north coastal Egyptian line. In addition, a novel estimation geoid model is designed and evaluated based on the latest global geoid models. The results of the three estimation models show that they can be used to correct the shoreline geoid model, in terms of root mean square error that ranges from 1.7 to 8.5?cm. Moreover, it is found that the least square vector machine model is a competitive approach with certain advantage in solving complex problems represented by missing data.     

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.     

Wetlands and low-gradient topography are associated with longer hydrologic transit times in Precambrian Shield headwater catchments

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics, and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including till, thin soils, bedrock outcrops, and depressional wetland features that play contrasting hydrologic roles. This study presents approximately 3.5 years of precipitation and streamflow water isotope data and estimates mean transit times (MTTs) and the young water fraction (p_y) across six small catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The main objectives were to define a typical range of MTTs for headwater catchments in this region and to identify landscape variables that best explain differences in MTTs/p_y using airborne light detection and ranging and digital terrain analysis. Of the transit time distributions, the two parallel linear reservoir and gamma distributions best describe the hydrology of these catchments, particularly because of their ability to capture more extreme changes related to events such as snowmelt. The estimated MTTs, regardless of the modelling approach or distribution used, are positively associated with the percent wetland area and negatively with mean slope in the catchments. In this landscape, low-gradient features such as wetlands increase catchment scale water storage when antecedent conditions are dryer and decrease transit times when there is a moisture surplus, which plausibly explains the increases in MTTs and mean annual runoff from catchments with significant coverage of these landscape features.     

Changes in hillslope hydrology in a perched,shallow soil system due to clearcutting and residual biomass removal

Sustainable fuels legislation and volatility in energy prices have put additional pressures on the forestry sector to intensify the harvesting of biomass for “advanced biofuel” production. To better understand how residual biomass removal after harvest affects forest hydrology in relatively low slope terrain, a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study was conducted in the USDA Forest Service's Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, USA. Hydrological measurements were made from 2010–2013 on a forested hillslope that was divided into three treatment blocks, where one block was harvested and residual biomass removed (Biomass Removed), the second was harvested and residual biomass left (Biomass Left), and the last block was left as an Unharvested Control. The pre-harvest period (2 years) was 2010–11 and post-harvest (2 years) was 2012–13. Water table elevation at the upslope and downslope position, subsurface runoff, and soil moisture were measured between May–November. Mixed effect statistical models were used to compare both the before-after and “control” treatment ratios (ratios between harvested hillslopes and the Unharvested Control hillslope). Subsurface runoff significantly increased (p < .05) at both harvested hillslopes but to a greater degree on the Biomass Left hillslope. Greater subsurface runoff volumes at both harvested hillslopes were driven by substantial increases during fall, with additional significant increases during summer on the Biomass Left hillslope. The hydrological connectivity, inferred from event runoff ratios, increased due to harvesting at both hillslopes but only significantly on the Biomass Left hillslope. The winter harvest minimized soil disturbance, resulting in no change to the effective hydraulic conductivity distribution with depth. Thus, the observed hydrological changes were driven by increased effective precipitation and decreased evapotranspiration, increasing the duration that both harvested hillslopes were hydrologically active. The harvesting of residual biomass appears to lessen hydrological connectivity relative to leaving residual biomass on the hillslope, potentially decreasing downstream hydrological impacts of similar forestry operations.     

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.     

Steady Lateral Growth of Three-Dimensional Particle Laden Density Currents

In this paper the steady lateral growth of three-dimensional turbulent inclined turbidity current is investigated. To simulate the current, an experimental setup is developed to analyze the turbidity current for different regimes in the particle laden density currents environment. The Buckingham's π theorem together with a dimensional analysis is implemented to derive the appropriate non-dimensional variables. The experimental results were normalized and plotted in the form of non-dimensional graphs from which a theoretical model is developed and analyzed. Based on the results obtained for the steady lateral growth, three different regimes, namely, inertia-viscous one as the first regime, buoyancy-viscous and gravity-viscous as the second and third regimes are distinguished within the current.In these regimes, the force balance is between the driving and resisting forces. Namely, in the first regime, the force balance is between the inertia and viscous forces, in the second regime, the buoyancy and viscous forces, and in the third regime, gravity and viscous forces are balanced. The experimental results indicate that the lateral growth rate in the first regime is smaller than that in the second and third regimes due to the magnitude and type of the forces involved in those regimes. According to the graphical results, the three different lateral growth rates appear when the normalized current length is smaller than about 3, between about 3 and 10, and larger than about 10. In those regions,the slopes of the data are different with respect to one another.     

Geostatistical features of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivities in Frenchman Creek Watershed in Western Nebraska

This study evaluated the spatial variability of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) in different stream morphologies in the Frenchman Creek Watershed, Western Nebraska, using different variogram models. Streambed K_v values were determined in situ using permeameter tests at 10 sites in Frenchman, Stinking Water and Spring Creeks during the dry season at baseflow conditions. Measurements were taken both in straight and meandering stream channels during a 5 day period at similar flow conditions. Each test site comprised of at least three transects and each transect comprised of at least three K_v measurements. Linear, Gaussian, exponential and spherical variogram models were used with Kriging gridding method for the 10 sites. As a goodness-of-fit statistic for the variogram models, cross-validation results showed differences in the median absolute deviation and the standard deviation of the cross-validation residuals. Results show that using the geometric means of the 10 sites for gridding performs better than using either all the K_v values from the 93 permeameter tests or 10 K_v values from the middle transects and centre permeameters. Incorporating both the spatial variability and the uncertainty involved in the measurement at a reach segment can yield more accurate grid results that can be useful in calibrating K_v at watershed or sub-watershed scales in distributed hydrological models.     

Micromechanical approach to effective viscoelastic properties of micro‐fractured geomaterials

The aim of this paper is to formulate a micromechanics‐based approach to non‐aging viscoelastic behavior of materials with randomly distributed micro‐fractures. Unlike cracks, fractures are discontinuities that are able to transfer stresses and can therefore be regarded from a mechanical viewpoint as interfaces endowed with a specific behavior under normal and shear loading. Making use of the elastic‐viscoelastic correspondence principle together with a Mori‐Tanka homogenization scheme, the effective viscoelastic behavior is assessed from properties of the material constituents and damage parameters related to density and size of fractures. It is notably shown that the homogenized behavior thus formulated can be described in most cases by means of a generalized Maxwell rheological model. For practical implementation in structural analyses, an approximate model for the isotropic homogenized fractured medium is formulated within the class of Burger models. Although the approximation is basically developed for short‐term and long‐term behaviors, numerical applications indicate that the approximate Burger model accurately reproduce the homogenized viscoelastic behavior also in the transient conditions.     

Fully nonlinear heavy ion-acoustic solitary waves in astrophysical degenerate relativistic quantum plasmas

Fully nonlinear features of heavy ion-acoustic solitary waves (HIASWs) have been investigated in an astrophysical degenerate relativistic quantum plasma (ADRQP) containing relativistically degenerate electrons and non-relativistically degenerate light ion species, and non-degenerate heavy ion species. The pseudo-energy balance equation is derived from the fluid dynamical equations by adopting the well-known Sagdeev-potential approach, and the properties of arbitrary amplitude HIASWs are examined. The small amplitude limit for the propagation of HIASWs is also recovered. The basic features (width, amplitude, polarity, critical Mach number, speed, etc.) of HIASWs are found to be significantly modified by the relativistic effect of the electron species, and also by the variation of the number density of electron, light ion, and heavy ion species. The basic properties of HIASWs, that may propagated in some realistic astrophysical plasma systems (e.g., in white dwarfs), are briefly discussed.