高分辨率WRF三维变分同化在北京地区降水预报中的应用

为迎接2008年北京奥运会,改进北京地区的天气预报,建立了一个基于三重嵌套区域(27/9/3 km)的WRF三维变分同化(WRFVar)和WRF模式的高分辨率快速更新循环同化预报(Rapid-Up-date Cycle)系统,并针对2006年8月1日发生在北京地区的强对流天气进行了一系列数值试验,结果表明:高分辨率的快速更新循环系统很好地预报出了此次强降水过程;在WRF三维变分同化里调节背景场误差和观测误差,提高了降水预报的效果;插值得出的3 km背景场误差可以作为一个合理的近似在3 km分辨率的WRFVar中使用,用户可以不必积累高分辨率的预报场去计算背景场误差,从而节省大量计算资源。3 h频次的RUC已经能满足预报要求,更高频次(1 h)的RUC并没有导致预报的进一步提高。     

Simulation of Tsaoling landslide, Taiwan, based on Saint Venant equations over general topography

The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake triggered the catastrophic Tsaoling landslide in Taiwan. The geomorphological change measured from the data of the 1989 and 2000 aerial photos reveals that the scar and deposit volumes are about 0.126 km³ and 0.15 km³ respectively. The debris material ran over a distance of 1.6 km with 500 m descent in elevation. In this paper, we use the continuum model of hydraulic flow, SHALTOP^2D, based on the equations of Bouchut and Westdickenberg to simulate numerically the landslide dynamics. When the mass is moving, the flow is assumed hydrostatic with a basal Coulomb friction. The best fit is obtained using the basal friction angle equal to 6°, the only parameter of the simulation, uniformly applied in the calculation domain. The landslide front reaches the Chinshui river valley, the foothill of the slope, within only about 25 s after initiation and the motion settles in about 113 s. The maximum speed is estimated 75 m/s. The spreading of the deposit agrees well with the field measurement.     

Energy transition,CO2 mitigation,and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model

The salinization of freshwater-dependent coastal ecosystems precedes inundation by sea level rise. This type of saltwater intrusion places communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure at substantial risk. Risk perceptions of local residents are an indicator to gauge public support for climate change adaptation planning. Here, we document residential perspectives on the present and future threats posed by saltwater intrusion in a rural, low-lying region in coastal North Carolina, and we compare the spatial distribution of survey responses to physical landscape variables such as distance to coastline, artificial drainage density, elevation, saltwater intrusion vulnerability, and actual salinity measured during a synoptic field survey. We evaluate and discuss the degree of alignment or misalignment between risk perceptions and metrics of exposure to saltwater intrusion. Risk perceptions align well with the physical landscape characteristics, as residents with greater exposure to saltwater intrusion, including those living on low-lying land with high concentrations of artificial drainages, perceive greater risk than people living in low-exposure areas. Uncertainty about threats of saltwater intrusion is greatest among those living at higher elevations, whose properties and communities are less likely to be exposed to high salinity. As rising sea levels, drought, and coastal storms increase the likelihood of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions, integrated assessments of risk perceptions and physical exposure are critical for developing outreach activities and planning adaptation measures.

     

全国土地质量地球化学调查二十年

土地质量地球化学调查计划是我国继区域化探全国扫面计划之后一个新的国家地球化学填图计划,该计划实施20年来,在支撑土壤环境污染防控、土地资源管理、国家重大立法、精准扶贫等方面做出了重大贡献,显著拓展了地质工作服务链。本文从计划的提出背景、项目的组织实施、主要进展、调查技术的进步和分析测试技术的提高与质量控制方案的完善等方面回顾了该计划的发展历程。从全国耕地地球化学状况、全国省会城市土壤环境质量状况、中国主要淡水湖泊沉积物环境质量状况、中国主要农耕区20年来土壤碳库变化4个方面对调查成果做了全面总结。全方位介绍了调查应用成果在土地管理、土壤污染防治、农业种植结构调整、脱贫攻坚、地方病防治、油气勘查、固体矿产勘查等7个领域中的应用。并在调查技术革新、评价方法创新和调查与研究融合三个方面对土地质量地球化学调查工作的未来发展趋势做了展望。     

2015年11月浙江省降水异常成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流资料、NOAA ERSST.V3b海温资料以及浙江省66个台站1971年以来的降水资料,分析了浙江省11月降水偏多对应的高低层大气环流异常特征以及与热带海温异常的联系,并在此基础上对2015年11月浙江省降水异常偏多的事实进行梳理和个例诊断。结果显示,2015年11月浙江省处于降水偏多的气候背景,同时北半球北极涛动正位相异常偏强、中高纬地区经向环流偏弱,西北太平洋副热带高压强度异常偏强、位置偏西是造成降水异常偏多的主要原因;统计分析表明巴尔喀什湖地区500 hPa高度场和西太平洋副热带高压强度与浙江省11月份降水具有显著相关;厄尔尼诺是导致浙江省11月降水偏多的重要外强迫因子之一,2015年11月Niño3.4指数达历史峰值,是造成浙江省同期降水异常偏多的主要原因。     

Study on the simulation of acoustic logging measurements in horizontal and deviated wells

The conventional acoustic logging interpretation method, which is based on vertical wells that penetrate isotropic formations, is not suitable for horizontal and deviated wells penetrating anisotropic formations. This unsuitability is because during horizontal and deviated well drilling, cuttings will splash on the well wall or fall into the borehole bottom and form a thin bed of cuttings. In addition, the high velocity layers at different depths and intrinsic anisotropy may affect acoustic logging measurements. In this study, we examine how these factors affect the acoustic wave slowness measured in horizontal and deviated wells that are surrounded by an anisotropic medium using numerical simulation. We use the staggered-grid finite difference method in time domain (FDTD) combined with hybrid-PML. First, we acquire the acoustic slowness using a simulated array logging system, and then, we analyze how various factors affect acoustic slowness measurements and the differences between the effects of these factors. The factors considered are high-velocity layers, thin beds of cuttings, dipping angle, formation thickness, and anisotropy. The simulation results show that these factors affect acoustic wave slowness measurements differently. We observe that when the wavelength is much smaller than the distance between the borehole wall and high velocity layer, the true slowness of the formation could be acquired. When the wavelengths are of the same order (i.e., in the near-field scenarios), the geometrical acoustics theory is no longer applicable. Furthermore, when a thin bed of cuttings exists at the bottom of the borehole, Fermat's principle is still applicable, and true slowness can be acquired. In anisotropic formations, the measured slowness changes with increments in the dipping angle. Finally, for a measurement system with specific spacing, the slowness of a thin target layer can be acquired when the distance covered by the logging tool is sufficiently long. Based on systematical simulations with different dipping angles and anisotropy in homogenous TI media, slowness estimation charts are established to quantitatively determine the slowness at any dipping angle and for any value of the anisotropic ratio. Synthetic examples with different acoustic logging tools and different elastic parameters demonstrate that the acoustic slowness estimation method can be conveniently applied to horizontal and deviated wells in TI formations with high accuracy.     

Evaluation of Hydraulic Properties of Aquitards Using Earthquake‐Triggered Groundwater Variation

The hydraulic properties of aquitards are not easily obtained because monitoring wells are usually installed in aquifers for groundwater resources management. Earthquake‐induced crust stress (strain) triggers groundwater level variations over a short period of time in a large area. These groundwater anomalies can be used to investigate aquifer systems. This study uses a poroelastic model to fit the postseismic variations of groundwater level triggered by the Chi‐Chi earthquake to evaluate the hydraulic properties of aquitards in the Jhoushuei River alluvial fan (JRAF), Taiwan. Six of the adopted eight wells with depths of 70 to 130 m showed good agreement with the recovery theory. The mean hydraulic conductivities (K) of the aquifers for the eight wells are 1.62 × 10^?4 to 9.06 × 10^?4 m/s, and the thicknesses are 18.8 to 46.1 m. The thicknesses of the aquitards are 11.3 to 42.0 m. Under the isotropic assumption for K, the estimated values of K for the aquitards are 3.0 × 10^?8 to 2.1 × 10^?6 m/s, corresponding to a silty medium. The results match the values obtained for the geological material of the drilling core and those reported in previous studies. The estimated values were combined with those given in previous studies to determine the distribution of K in the first two aquitards in the JRAF. The distribution patterns of the aquitards reflect the sedimentary environments and fit the geological material. The proposed technique can be used to evaluate the K value of aquitards using inverse methods. The inversion results can be used in hydrogeological analyses, contaminant modeling, and subsidence evaluation.     

One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs

The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude M_v ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes M_v ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes M_v ≤ 5.     

Acoustic reflection well logging modeling using the frequency-domain finite-element method with a hybrid PML

In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML (H-PML) combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML (C-PML) with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML (M-PML). The H-PML boundary conditions can better suppress the numerical instability in some extreme models. and the computational speed of finite-element method and the dynamic range are greatly increased using this HPML. We use the finiteelement method with a hybrid PML to model the acoustic reflection of the interface when wireline and well logging while drilling (LWD), in a formation with a reflector outside the borehole. The simulation results suggests that the PS- and SP- reflected waves arrive at the same time when the inclination between the well and the outer interface is zero, and the difference in arrival times increases with increasing dip angle. When there are fractures outside the well, the reflection signal is clearer in the subsequent reflection waves and may be used to identify the fractured zone. The difference between the dominant wavelength and the model scale shows that LWD reflection logging data are of higher resolution and quality than wireline acoustic reflection logging.     

浙江6个列岛大型底栖藻类分类多样性

本文基于对七星列岛大型底栖藻类的实地调查,结合浙南3个列岛(七星列岛、南麂列岛和洞头列岛)和浙北3个列岛(渔山列岛、中街山列岛和马鞍列岛)大型底栖藻类物种组成的有关文献,构建大型底栖藻类基础数据库。采用平均分类差异指数△~+、分类差异变异指数∧~+、G-F多样性测度指数和相似性系数开展分类多样性研究。结果显示:6个列岛藻类在目级和科级的相似性很高,其值均在0.800以上;洞头列岛的△~+值最高(77.42),中街山列岛最低(72.65),这表明洞头列岛大型底栖藻类类群间的亲缘关系较远,中街山列岛藻类类群间的亲缘关系较近;七星列岛的∧~+值最高,达942.00,南麂列岛最低,仅865.12,这表明南麂列岛大型底栖藻类在不同分类阶元分布最均匀,七星列岛的藻类分布较集中;南麂列岛无论是F指数、G指数还是G-F指数的值均比其他5个列岛高,依次为18.62,4.40和0.76,这说明南麂列岛藻类的生态位分化程度较高。本研究构建了6个列岛大型底栖藻类资源与分类多样性基础数据库,为有效保护和管理大型底栖藻类提供了理论依据。