GPS/LEO掩星观测的变分同化技术

在简单介绍GPS/LEO掩星探测大气的发展历史和科学意义之后,详细阐述了反演的基本原理;分析了标准反演中存在的问题,并说明一维变分同化(1DVAR)在反演方法中的重要性;给出了一维变分同化中价值函数的求解,以及各种同化因子;简单介绍了对当前气象学中普遍使用的四维变分同化(4DVAR);重点讨论了各种同化方法,以及使用各种同化因子的优缺点。最后,通过CHAMP卫星的观测实例分析,验证了GPS数据在数值天气预报(NWP)中的作用,以及相对于标准反演法一维变分对气象要素的改进。     

Approach to Mountain Hazards in Tibet, China

Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km^2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.     

对"数字地球"的几点认识

自“数字地球”的概念被提出以来，已引起全球的广泛关注和积极响应。然而，数字地球在目前还仅仅是一个概念。为了逐步建立“数字地球”，需要就“数字地球”的理论、技术以及实现进行深入地探讨。从“数字地球”的产生背景、基本概念、研究内容、构成框架、关键技术、实施难点和发展战略等方面谈了对“数字地球”的一些认识。     

Optical monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41

The results of a photometric monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41, performed at the optical R and B bands in 2002 February–March, are presented. With a 60/90 cm Schmidt telescope at the Xinglong station of the National Astronomical Observatories of China, we observed the source exhibiting amplitude variations of up to 0.78 mag in both bands during the whole campaign. Intraday and even intranight variations are detected as well. A typical variability time-scale of about 36 d is derived from our 2-month observations at the optical bands, which is identical to that found at a radio wavelength of 92 cm, suggesting a common origin for the variations in 4C 38.41 from optical to radio bands.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

STRATEGY OF MAIZE′S CONCENTRATING TO ADVANTAGE AREAS IN JILIN PROVINCE

WiththedevelopmentofagricultureandChina'sentryintoWTO,thesituationofsupplyanddemandinmaizemarkethaschangedgreatly.Facingtherelativesurplusofmaizeandtheformationofbuyer'smarket,weshouldfullydeveloprelativeadvantages,carryouttheunevenstrategyofsupportingthesuperior inmaizeproduction andcultivateadvantagedareasofmaize.Theabovestrategicmeasurescanrapidlyim-provetheinternationally competitiveabilityandpro-ductivityofmaizeinJilinProvince,getoutofthea-griculturalpredicamentandmaketheagriculturalde-…     

中国大陆科学钻探先导孔零偏VSP资料解释

用六级三分量检波器在中国大陆科学钻探先导孔中实施了零偏VSP测量.数据处理结果表明,中国大陆科学钻探孔区超高压变质岩石的地震波速度主要介于4500～7000m/s之间,显著高于一般的沉积岩地区,而且随深度变化不明显.声波测井速度系统地稍低于VSP层速度,可能是由于井壁处岩石的完整性受到破坏而造成的.地震波速度与岩石密度和岩性存在明确的对应关系,榴辉岩的密度和地震波速度均显著高于片麻岩类岩石;由榴辉岩退变生成的斜长角闪岩类岩石,其密度和地震波速度均呈现出较大的变化,主要与其退变质程度有关;超基性岩中的裂隙系统导致其密度和地震波速度大幅度下降.由于榴辉岩与其他岩石类型之间存在较大的波阻抗差异,因此用零偏VSP资料标定该区地震波的地质层位是有效的.关于地震波反射的原因,通过综合研究地震波(包括反射纵波、上行转换横波、井筒波)的特征、岩石速度和密度分布以及井径变化,认为主要是岩性分界面、韧性剪切带和断裂(带),但还有一些因素尚待进一步研究.     

The FAST/SKA site selection in Guizhou province

Many karst depressions with diameters of 300 m to 500 m, suitable for constructing Arecibo-style radio telescopes, were identified in the south of Guizhou Province by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies together with field investigations. Fundamental topography and landform databases were established for 391candidate depressions, and using GIS the3-dimensional images of depressions, at a scale of 1:10000, were then simulated to fit a spherical antenna. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

彗木碰撞期间3.6和12cm射电观测

本文介绍了1994年7月SL－9彗星撞击木星期间3．6cm和12cm射电连续谱观测的结果．在3．6cm波长上，撞击事件无明显的视效应，在12cm波长上，木星的射电平均视流量增加约20％．     

成都及附近地区旅游气候资源研究

通过对成都及附近等7个地区多年气候资源及人体舒适指数进行分级比较，得出了7个地区的人体舒适指数的时间分布特征及对当地旅游的影响。