An example of drastic natural changes in the intertidal biota and the implications for monitoring programmes

During a period of about two years at Parkmore Point, Co. Kerry, Ireland, fucoids drastically decreased in the mid and upper shore, meanwhile barnacle abundance increased on the upper shore and mussels increased on the lower shore. Causes could not be determined but human interference was excluded due to remoteness, and changes were so localized as to exclude climatic factors. These drastic natural changes emphasize the need for guarded interpretation of monitoring data from areas suspected of pollution.     

Antibiotics in the Hong Kong metropolitan area: Ubiquitous distribution and fate in Victoria Harbour

We investigated the presence and fate of 16 antibiotics belonging to seven groups (β-lactams, fluoroquinolones, macrolides, sulfonamides, tetracyclines, trimethoprim and amphenicols) in effluents of sewage plants and receiving waters in Hong Kong. Cefalexin, amoxicillin, ofloxacin and erythromycin-H₂O were ubiquitous in sea water throughout Victoria Harbour, indicating continuous discharge to the environment. This is one of the few studies reporting the frequent occurrence of cefalexin and amoxicillin in sewage effluents and sea water (170-5070 and 64-1670 ng/L in sewage; 6.1-493 and 0.64-76 ng/L in sea water, respectively). Mass flows from seven sewage plants discharged an estimated total of 14.4 kg/day to the Harbour. Typhoon shelters also appeared to play an important role as sources of antibiotics, as evidenced by elevated concentrations within their boundaries. Mass balance estimations suggested significant quantities of antibiotics are discharged to the Harbour without passage through treatment plants.     

Use of the clam Asaphis deflorata as a potential indicator of organochlorine bioaccumulation in Hong Kong coastal sediments

In order to test its ability as a bioaccumulator, the deposit feeding clam Asaphis deflorata, collected from a clean coastal area in Hong Kong (Ding Chau, Ma On Shan), was exposed to field-collected sediments representing a gradient of contamination. Sediments were collected from four sites, namely Shek O in the southeast of Hong Kong Island, Ap Lei Chau in Aberdeen district, Tai Kok Tsui in the Mong Kok waterfront, and To Kwa Wan near Kowloon City pier. Shek O was the cleanest and To Kwa Wan was the most polluted site. Replicate 30L fiberglass tanks containing equal numbers of organisms were maintained for 28 days, with equal quantities of sediment and filtered seawater. Prior to this the animals were depurated for 10 days in clean sediment. During the 28-day holding period, sampling of both sediment and clams was performed on days 0, 10 and 28, along with condition index measurements. Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in sediments showed that Shek O was the cleanest of the sites, followed by Ap Lei Chau, Tai Kok Tsui and To Kwa Wan. There were marked differences among the sites, especially in PAH concentrations, with To Kwa Wan showing extremely high sediment concentrations. Following exposure, the biota concentrations of various organochlorine pesticides and PCBs suggested that there was sediment concentration-dependent accumulation by A. deflorata on day 10 of the experiment. However, there was no significant increase on day 28 for any of the compounds tested. Contaminant concentrations in clams feeding on Shek O sediments were minimal and almost the same on all sampling days, indicating the presence of only baseline contaminant concentrations. The condition indices (CI) of the clams on various sampling days showed that the animals were relatively more stable in sediment from Shek O. There were some deaths in all the test tanks (including those containing Shek O sediments). In addition, clams appeared to bury faster in the cleaner Shek O sediment and remained buried, unlike those in the sediment from the other locations, where some remained predominantly on the surface. Nevertheless, despite not completely burying, the clams in other test sediments still exhibited sediment concentration-dependent tissue accumulation. The results of the investigation indicate the possibility of developing a standard test protocol for bioaccumulation by sediment dwelling invertebrates, for practical use in Hong Kong, using A. deflorata.     

Use of the clam Asaphis deflorata as a potential indicator of organochlorine bioaccumulation in Hong Kong coastal sediments

In order to test its ability as a bioaccumulator, the deposit feeding clam Asaphis deflorata, collected from a clean coastal area in Hong Kong (Ding Chau, Ma On Shan), was exposed to field-collected sediments representing a gradient of contamination. Sediments were collected from four sites, namely Shek O in the southeast of Hong Kong Island, Ap Lei Chau in Aberdeen district, Tai Kok Tsui in the Mong Kok waterfront, and To Kwa Wan near Kowloon City pier. Shek O was the cleanest and To Kwa Wan was the most polluted site. Replicate 30 L fiberglass tanks containing equal numbers of organisms were maintained for 28 days, with equal quantities of sediment and filtered seawater. Prior to this the animals were depurated for 10 days in clean sediment. During the 28-day holding period, sampling of both sediment and clams was performed on days 0, 10 and 28, along with condition index measurements. Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in sediments showed that Shek O was the cleanest of the sites, followed by Ap Lei Chau, Tai Kok Tsui and To Kwa Wan. There were marked differences among the sites, especially in PAH concentrations, with To Kwa Wan showing extremely high sediment concentrations.Following exposure, the biota concentrations of various organochlorine pesticides and PCBs suggested that there was sediment concentration-dependent accumulation by A. deflorata on day 10 of the experiment. However, there was no significant increase on day 28 for any of the compounds tested. Contaminant concentrations in clams feeding on Shek O sediments were minimal and almost the same on all sampling days, indicating the presence of only baseline contaminant concentrations. The condition indices (CI) of the clams on various sampling days showed that the animals were relatively more stable in sediment from Shek O. There were some deaths in all the test tanks (including those containing Shek O sediments). In addition, clams appeared to bury faster in the cleaner Shek O sediment and remained buried, unlike those in the sediment from the other locations, where some remained predominantly on the surface. Nevertheless, despite not completely burying, the clams in other test sediments still exhibited sediment concentration-dependent tissue accumulation. The results of the investigation indicate the possibility of developing a standard test protocol for bioaccumulation by sediment dwelling invertebrates, for practical use in Hong Kong, using A. deflorata.     

Analysis of nonlinear associations between prenatal methylmercury exposure from fish consumption and neurodevelopmental outcomes in the Seychelles Main Cohort at 17 years

The Seychelles Child Development Study has been examining the relationship between prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure from consuming fish during pregnancy and child development. This study re-analyzes seven outcomes in the 17 year Main Cohort data to determine if there are nonlinear or non-homogeneous (subgroup) associations that were not identified in the linear analysis. We adopted two statistical approaches. First, we carried out an additive nonlinear analysis assuming homogeneous prenatal MeHg-outcome relationships to explore overall associations. Second, we applied the regression tree to the Woodcock–Johnson Calculation subtest (it was significantly associated in earlier analyses) and identified 4 clusters based on covariates. Then we used additive models to assess the prenatal MeHg association in each of the four clusters for all seven outcomes. This approach assumes nonlinear associations in each cluster and non-homogeneous associations between clusters. The additive nonlinear analysis yielded prenatal MeHg curves similar to the linear analysis. For the regression tree analysis, the curves relating prenatal MeHg to outcomes between the 4 clusters differed and some crossed at higher prenatal MeHg levels, suggesting non-homogeneity in the upper range of exposure. Additionally, some of the curves suggested a possible non-linear relationship within the range of exposure we studied. This non-linear analysis supports the findings from the linear analysis. It shows little evidence to support an adverse association of prenatal MeHg exposure through maternal consumption of fish contaminated with natural background levels. However, the tree analysis suggests that the prenatal exposure/outcome relationship may not be homogeneous across all individuals and that some subpopulations may have an adverse association in the upper range of the exposures studied. More robust data in the higher levels of exposure in this cohort are needed to confirm this finding.     

Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010 were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60 min after initiation of runoff, with plot‐scale monitoring of runoff every 5 min during that period. Runoff was simulated with the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion/Simulator of Transport with Infiltration and Runoff (KINEROS2/STWIR) field‐scale model, whose hydrodynamics are based on the kinematic wave equation. Because of the non‐linear nature of the model and a highly parameterized model with respect to the available data, several approaches were investigated to upscale nine runoff‐related parameters from a series of small monitored plots to the field scale. Inverse modeling was performed using the model‐independent Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to individually calibrate the nine KINEROS2/STWIR parameters on 36 plots. The parameters were averaged, and bootstrapping was used to assess uncertainty of the parameters via estimation of confidence intervals (CI). A Monte Carlo simulation using the bootstrap results showed reasonable field‐scale representation of flow rates. Median values of calibrated parameters were within the 95% CI obtained with bootstrapping. The simulated results for the median values associated with the 90% CI flow rates produced similar trends as those exhibited with the observed data, suggesting that median values of the calibrated parameters from the PEST inverse modeling could be used to represent the field scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the integrated roles of insurance and retrofit in managing natural disaster risk: a multi-stakeholder perspective

This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk.     

Implications of Weighting Metrics for Line Generalization with Visvalingam's Algorithm

Visvalingam's algorithm was designed for caricatural line generalization. A distinction must be made between the algorithm and its operational definition, which includes the metric used to drive it. When the algorithm was first introduced, it was demonstrated using the concept of the effective area of triangles. It was noted that alternative metrics could be used and that the metrics could be weighted, for example to take account of shape.

Ordnance Survey (Great Britain) and others are using Visvalingam's algorithm for generalizing coastlines and other natural features, with complex parameter-driven functions to weight the original metric. This paper shows how free software and data were used to scrutinize the implications of one of Matthew Bloch's simple and transparent weighting functions. The results look promising, when compared with manually produced mid and small-scale maps; and encourage further research focussed on weighting functions and related topics, such as self-intersection of lines and model-based generalization. The paper discusses why weights were used in some projects. It comments on their range of applicability and reiterates the original guidance provided for the use of weights. It also demonstrates how weights can undermine the algorithm's capacity to draw caricatures with very few points. The paper provides sufficient background and links to the authors’ test data and to open source software for the benefit of others wishing to undertake research in line generalization using Visvalingam's algorithm.