Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

The application of numerical weather prediction(NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous(yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008–16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation.The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation,NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations.Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.     

A comprehensive VIKOR method for integration of various exploratory data in mineral potential mapping

The central Iranian volcanic-sedimentary belt in Kerman province of Iran that is located within the Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc zone is chosen to integrate diverse evidential layers for mineral potential mapping. The studied area has high potential of mineral occurrences especially porphyry copper, and the prepared potential maps aim to outline new prospect zones for further investigation. Two evidential layers including the downward continued map and the analytic signal of filtered magnetic data are generated to be used as geophysical plausible traces of porphyry copper occurrences. The low values of the resistivity layer acquired from airborne frequency domain electromagnetic data are also used as an electrical criterion in this study. Four remote sensing evidential layers including argillic, phyllic, propylitic, and hydroxyl alterations are extracted from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images in order to map the altered areas associated with porphyry copper deposits. The Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images are used as well to prepare iron oxide layer. Since potassic alteration is generally the mainstay of copper ore mineralization, the airborne potassium radiometry data is used to explore both phyllic and potassic alteration. Finally, the geochemical layers of Cu/B/Pb/Zn elements and the main geochemical component responsible for ore mineralization extracted from principal component analysis are included in the integration process to prepare final potential maps. The conventional and the extended version of VIKOR method (as a well-known algorithm in multi-criteria decision making problems) produced two mineral potential maps, and the results were compared with the ones acquired from prevalent methods of the index overlay and fuzzy logic operators of sum and gamma. The final mineral potential maps based upon desired geo-data set indicate adequately matching of high potential zones with previous working and active mines of copper deposits.     

Development of a new connection for precast concrete walls subjected to cyclic loading

The Industrialized Building System (IBS) was recently introduced to minimize the time and cost of project construction. Accordingly, ensuring the integration of the connection of precast components in IBS structures is an important factor that ensures stability of buildings subjected to dynamic loads from earthquakes, vehicles, and machineries. However, structural engineers still lack knowledge on the proper connection and detailed joints of IBS structure construction. Therefore, this study proposes a special precast concrete wall-to-wall connection system for dynamic loads that resists multidirectional imposed loads and reduces vibration effects (PI2014701723). This system is designed to connect two adjacent precast wall panels by using two steel U-shaped channels (i.e., male and female joints). During casting, each joint is adapted for incorporation into a respective wall panel after considering the following conditions: one side of the steel channel opens into the thickness face of the panel; a U-shaped rubber is implemented between the two channels to dissipate the vibration effect; and bolts and nuts are used to create an extension between the two U-shaped male and female steel channels. The developed finite element model of the precast wall is subjected to cyclic loads to evaluate the performance of the proposed connection during an imposed dynamic load. Connection performance is then compared with conventional connections based on the energy dissipation, stress, deformation, and concrete damage in the plastic range. The proposed precast connection is capable of exceeding the energy absorption of precast walls subjected to dynamic load, thereby improving its resistance behavior in all principal directions.     

Impact of Lithofacies and Structures on the Hydrogeochemistry of the Lower Miocene Aquifer at Moghra Oasis,North Western Desert,Egypt

Natural Resources Research - The Moghra Oasis is one of the major Egyptian desert-reclamation projects. Understanding the hydrochemistry of the Moghra aquifer is an onus to properly plan and manage...     

The effect of density stratification on the resonant absorption of MHD waves in coronal loops

The standing quasi-modes of the ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) in a zero-β cylindrical magnetic flux tube that undergoes a longitudinal density stratification and radial density structuring are considered. The radial structuring is assumed to be a linearly varying density profile. Using the relevant connection formulae of the resonant absorption, the dispersion relation for the fast MHD body waves is derived and solved numerically to obtain both the frequencies and damping rates of the fundamental and first-overtone,   k = 1, 2  , modes of both the kink  ( m = 1)  and fluting  ( m = 2)  waves, where k and m are the longitudinal and azimuthal mode numbers, respectively.     

Ocellar lamprophyre dyke bearing mineralization,Wadi Nugrus,Eastern Desert,Egypt: Geology,mineralogy and geochemical implications

The ocellar lamprophyre dyke (ENE-WSW) is recorded at Wadi Nugrus, Eastern Desert, Egypt. It cuts porphyritic biotite granites and varies in thickness from 0.5 to 1.5 m and up to 3 km in length. The lamprophyre dyke has been altered, and it is characterized by porphyritic and panidiomorphic textures with plagioclase, olivine, and augite constituting the porphyritic phase in a fine groundmass of the same composition. Rutile, titanite, apatite, fluorite, graphite, calcite, allanite, autunite and Fe-Ti oxides are accessory minerals. Kaolinite, chlorite and epidote are secondary minerals. Carbonitization and hematitization are common. Rounded to sub-rounded porphyritic and zoned ocelli with radiate or brush-like shapes are generally common and represent physical traps for mineralization. The ocellar features are interpreted to represent the late stage of magmatic segregation or magmatic crystallization involving two immiscible magmatic liquids.     

A comparative study on the rheology and wave dissipation of kaolinite and natural Hendijan Coast mud, the Persian Gulf

The objective of this paper is to investigate the rheological behavior of kaolinite and Hendijan mud, located at the northwest part of the Persian Gulf, and the dissipative role of this muddy bed on surface water waves. A series of laboratory rheological tests was conducted to investigate the rheological response of mud to rotary and cyclic shear rates. While a viscoplastic Bingham model can successfully be applied for continuous controlled shear-stress tests, the rheology of fluid mud displays complex viscoelastic behavior in time-periodic motion. The comparisons of the behavior of natural Hendijan mud with commercial kaolinite show rheological similarities. A large number of laboratory wave-flume experiments were carried out with a focus on the dissipative role of the fluid mud. Assuming four rheological models of viscous, Kelvin-Voigt viscoelastic, Bingham viscoplastic, and viscoelastic-plastic for fluid mud layer, a numerical multi-layered model was applied to analyze the effects of different parameters of surface wave and muddy bed on wave attenuation. The predicted results based on different rheological models generally agree with the obtained wave-flume data implying that the adopted rheological model does not play an important role in the accuracy of prediction.     

Triangulation-to-GPS and GPS-to-GPS geodesy in Trinidad, West Indies: Neotectonics, seismic risk, and geologic implications

We estimated horizontal velocities at 25 sites first surveyed in a 1901-1903 British Ordnance Survey triangulation and then resurveyed with GPS in 1994-1995 to identify Trinidad's principal active on-land faults, quantify fault-slip-rates, and test for elastic locking. Our best-fit single-fault elastic dislocation model put 12 ± 3 mm/yr of dextral strike-slip on the Central Range Fault (1-2 km locking depth), an apparently aseismic active fault. The estimated motions also showed statistically insignificant horizontal motion (2.2 ± 1.8 mm/yr of right-slip; 2.7 ± 2.0 mm/yr of N-S shortening) on the eastward on-strike extension of the El Pilar Fault, known to be the active transform fault in Venezuela. Repeat GPS measurements made between 1994 and 2005 at two sites spanning the island north to south showed a 14 ± 3 mm/yr eastward (plate-motion-parallel) dextral velocity differential, consistent with our best-fit historic (1901-1995) fault-slip-rate. Paleoseismology trenching demonstrates that the Central Range Fault cuts <5000-year-old sediment and is capped by ∼550-year-old sediment, suggesting that it may be locked and may have ruptured at least once during this time interval. About ∼5 mm/yr of slip could be taken up on the Los Bajos Fault and additional faults in the offshore south of Trinidad. The existing 1901-1995 and 1994-2005 geodetic data alone cannot resolve whether the Central Range Fault is essentially creeping (≤1-2 km locking depth) or locked to a more standard depth of 10 km.