Estimating the Vehicle‐Miles‐Traveled Implications of Alternative Metropolitan Growth Scenarios: A Boston Example

This study demonstrates the potential value, and difficulties, in utilizing large‐scale, location aware, administrative data together with urban modeling to address current policy issues in a timely fashion. We take advantage of a unique dataset of millions of odometer readings from annual safety inspections of all private passenger vehicles in Metropolitan Boston to estimate the vehicle‐miles‐traveled (VMT) implication of alternative metropolitan growth scenarios: a sprawl‐type “let‐it‐be” scenario and a smart‐growth‐type “winds‐of‐change” scenario. The data are georeferenced to 250 × 250 m grid cells developed by MassGIS. We apply a greedy algorithm to assign Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level household growth projections to grid cells and then use spatial interpolation tools to estimate VMT‐per‐vehicle surfaces for the region. If new growth households have similar VMT behavior as their neighbors, then the let‐it‐be scenario will generate 12–15% more VMT per household compared to the winds‐of‐change scenario. However, even the “wind‐of‐change” scenario, will result in new households averaging higher VMT per household than the Metro Boston average observed in 2005. The implication is that urban growth management can significantly reduce GHG but, by itself, will not be sufficient to achieve the GHG emission reduction targets set by the State for the transportation sector.     

2013年4月22日科尔沁左翼后旗M5.3地震的发震构造初探

2013年4月22日内蒙古通辽市科尔沁左翼后旗、辽宁阜新市彰武县交界发生5.3级地震.研究发现,该地震序列震中分布、震源机制及烈度考察极震区长轴方向均为近东西方向,与横贯震区的养畜牧河断裂走向一致,综合判定该断裂是5.3级地震的发震构造.     

Effect of seawater on incident plane P and SV waves at ocean bottom and engineering characteristics of offshore ground motion records off the coast of southern California,USA

The effect of seawater on vertical ground motions is studied via a theoretical method and then actual offshore ground motion records are analyzed using a statistical method. A theoretical analysis of the effect of seawater on incident plane P and SV waves at ocean bottom indicate that on one hand, the affected frequency range of vertical ground motions is prominent due to P wave resonance in the water layer if the impedance ratio between the seawater and the underlying medium is large, but it is greatly suppressed if the impedance ratio is small; on the other hand, for the ocean bottom interface model selected herein, vertical ground motions consisting of mostly P waves are more easily affected by seawater than those dominated by SV waves. The statistical analysis of engineering parameters of offshore ground motion records indicate that:(1) Under the infl uence of softer surface soil at the seafl oor, both horizontal and vertical spectral accelerations of offshore motions are exaggerated at long period components, which leads to the peak spectral values moving to a longer period.(2) The spectral ratios(V/H) of offshore ground motions are much smaller than onshore ground motions near the P wave resonant frequencies in the water layer; and as the period becomes larger, the effect of seawater becomes smaller, which leads to a similar V/H at intermediate periods(near 2 s). These results are consistent with the conclusions of Boore and Smith(1999), but the V/H of offshore motion may be smaller than the onshore ground motions at longer periods(more than 5 s).     

The role of aluminium in the preservation of microbial biosignatures

Demonstrating the biogenicity of presumptive microfossils in the geological record often requires supporting chemical signatures, including isotopic signatures. Understanding the mechanisms that promote the preservation of microbial biosignatures associated with microfossils is fundamental to unravelling the palaeomicrobiological history of the material. Organomineralization of microorganisms is likely to represent the first stages of microbial fossilisation and has been hypothesised to prevent the autolytic degradation of microbial cell envelope structures. In the present study, two distinct fossilisation textures(permineralised microfossils and iron oxide encrusted cell envelopes)identified throughout iron-rich rock samples were analysed using nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry(NanoSIMS). In this system, aluminium is enriched around the permineralised microfossils, while iron is enriched within the intracellularly, within distinct cell envelopes. Remarkably,while cell wall structures are indicated, carbon and nitrogen biosignatures are not preserved with permineralised microfossils. Therefore, the enrichment of aluminium, delineating these microfossils appears to have been critical to their structural preservation in this iron-rich environment. In contrast,NanoSIMS analysis of mineral encrusted cell envelopes reveals that preserved carbon and nitrogen biosignatures are associated with the cell envelope structures of these microfossils. Interestingly, iron is depleted in regions where carbon and nitrogen are preserved. In contrast aluminium appears to be slightly enriched in regions associated with remnant cell envelope structures. The correlation of aluminium with carbon and nitrogen biosignatures suggests the complexation of aluminium with preserved cell envelope structures before or immediately after cell death may have inactivated autolytic activity preventing the rapid breakdown of these organic, macromolecular structures.Combined, these results highlight that aluminium may play an important role in the preservation of microorganisms within the rock record.     

土壤温度和湿度对冬小麦田土壤空气 CO2浓度的影响

通过同步观测耕层土壤空气CO2浓度廓线、土壤温度和土壤含水量,主要研究和讨论了华东地区典型稻麦轮作农田旱地阶段的土壤空气CO2浓度的变化规律,及土壤温度和含水量对它的影响.结果表明:麦田土壤空气CO2浓度与植物生长密切相关.土壤空气CO2浓度受土壤温度的影响较为显著,且深层的相关性要明显大于浅层.观测阶段的麦田土壤含水量介于30%和44%之间,与土壤空气CO2浓度有较好的相关性(相关性R2=0.61,统计显著性p＜0.001).土壤空气CO2浓度与土壤含水量呈正相关性的原因可能是:高土壤含水量导致的低充气孔隙度降低了土壤空气CO2扩散速率,从而导致土壤空气CO2聚积,浓度升高.在0～30 cm土层中,上层土壤气体中的CO2向上垂直扩散要比下层土壤快.土壤温度对土壤空气CO2浓度的影响大于土壤含水量.     

利用重力异常反演马里亚纳海沟海底地形

针对利用船舶测量海底地形效率低和成本高的缺点,选取西太平洋板块俯冲菲律宾板块而形成的马里亚纳海沟所在海域作为实验区域,依据重力地质方法（GGM）,利用重力异常数据反演海底地形。采用移去恢复技术确定了重力地质法模型的密度差异常数为2.32 g/cm³。分析比较了GGM海深模型、ETOPO1模型和直接将船测点海深数据格网化（模型1）3种海深模型之间的差异,并依据反演结果对"挑战者深渊"两侧地貌进行了研究。结果表明：GGM模型反演海底地形的结果优于ETOPO1模型,更优于将船测点海深数据直接格网化的结果;模型相对误差与海深的关系不大,受海底地形变化影响明显;在船测数据匮乏或者过于稀疏的海域,模型间海深差值结果较大;"挑战者深渊"海沟两侧的地貌有明显差异,在海沟南侧水深小于5 000 m的浅海部分,坡度平缓（2°~5°）,而在水深大于5 000 m的部分,坡度明显增大（10°~15°）;海沟北侧在整个下降阶段坡度很大（10°~15°）,11°45'N附近出现一个缓冲地带。     

夏帝发七年“泰山震”的解读

概述了对今本《竹书纪年》夏帝发"七年,陟。泰山震"这条记载的各种见解和涉及的今本《竹书纪年》的争鸣等;分析了这条史料的关键字"陟"、"震"在古文中的字义和在《竹书纪年》中的特定含义,结合夏商周断代工程研究成果等,认为对夏帝发"七年,陟。泰山震"的确切解读是:夏帝发于在位的第七年(约公元前1652年)崩亡;这一年泰山发生地震或受到地震的影响,地震发生的时间比此前推算的公元前1831年推后了179年,但无法确定这次地震的震中位置和震级。     

公元462年8月17日“兖州地震”震中的校订

对公元462年8月17日(南朝宋孝武帝大明六年七月甲申)兖州地震"地裂泉涌"等史料的可靠性进行分析,重点考证这次地震时"兖州"、"鲁郡"的治所,认为:(1)当时兖州的州治在湖陆,即今山东微山县昭阳湖内,不是以前认为的瑕丘(今兖州东北)或鄄城(今鄄城东);(2)鲁郡的郡治在驺县(今邹城峄山南故邾城),不是以前认为的鲁县(今曲阜)。在此基础上,利用确定历史地震基本参数的方法,结合地震破坏情况和余震活动等,校订了这次地震的震中位置(35.0°N、117.0°E,参考地名为山东省微山滕州交界一带,定位精度为3类)。     

华北北部地区现今应力场时空变化特征研究.

依据2002——2006年的中小地震资料,利用格点尝试法分析计算了华北北部4个应力小区的平均主应力轴,讨论了华北北部地区的现今应力场特征.在此基础上,对1977——1998年研究区内的单个地震震源机制解进行了进一步的分析计算,并结合以往的研究结果,研究了华北北部地区现今应力场随时间的变化特征,结果印证了唐山地震前后,唐山震源区及其邻近地区应力场主应力方向出现的转动和变化的现象:1976年唐山发生7.8级地震后,唐山震源区及其邻近的北京地区和邢台地区震源机制解的平均P轴可能顺时针转动了约15deg;——30deg;。北京地区和邢台地区近期（2002——2006年）的平均主应力轴与唐山地震前的综合断层面解较为一致,这两个地区应力场似乎转回到唐山地震前的状态. 而唐山区震源机制解的平均P轴在地震后则一直稳定在EW向上。位于张家口——渤海断裂带西段的京西北地区,其现今应力场则相对比较稳定,唐山地震前后主应力方向没有太大变动。鉴于数据资料等方面的原因,本文的研究结果仅仅是初步给出了华北北部地区应力场近几十年来一种可能的调整变化图象。      

重新评定鲁南地震区划工作的启示——1668年郯城81/2级特大地震劫难340周年纪念

本文简述了340年前在山东郯城发生的8特大地震给人类造成的巨大灾难,回顾了20年前完成的<重新评定鲁南地震区划>项目的提出、实施以及取得的主要成果,由此归纳了地震科学研究只有面向社会、服务社会才能大有作为等五方面的启示.