20世纪末广东省三大城市大气环境质量综合评价——改进密切值法的扩展应用

大气环境质量综合评价是一个城市环境质量考核的重要指标，改进的密切值法是其中一种切实可行的评价方法。通过对1991-2000年10年间广东省三大城市——广州、深圳和珠海的大气环境质量进行综合评价，发现20世纪末，大气环境质量最好的是珠海市，最差的是广州市。与广东省平均水平相比、三大城市中。广州市污染程度高于全省平均水平。从空气环境质量的变化趋势来看，自1997年开始，三大城市大气环境质量趋于好转，为新世纪城市空气环境质量改善提供了良好的基础。     

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S₂ generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S₂ generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S₂ generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

福州市植被信息提取及其景观格局空间变化

ASTER(高级空间热辐射热反射探测仪)是高光谱遥感影像时代到来的标志,与一般遥感影像相比能为对地观测提供更高质量的信息源。根据福福州市1988年的TM影像和2001年ASTER影像,在NDVI和分形几何理论方法的基础上,求取两个时期植被斑块的分形维数,结果表明:植被景观整体分形维数上升,说明植被斑块空间形态趋向复杂化,稳定性降低,其空间格局变化表现出2种基本规律:一是破碎化,孔隙化,主要发生在城区内部,二是空间萎缩,主要表现在城市边缘地区。     

青藏铁路冻土区路基工程安全可靠性监测技术研究

通过对冻土区路基工程和冻土之间相互作用过程的分析,提出冻土区路基工程的安全可靠性监测关键技术一是监测方法,二是监测手段,三是数据分析。冻土区路基工程的安全可靠性首先取决于工程周围和工程基底多年冻土的热稳定性,其次取决于发生变形的路基填土厚度及其基底融化层厚度。因此,路基顶面以下不同深度地温监测和年际冻融季节时段路基土层变形监测是冻土区工程长期可靠性监测的主要指标。青藏铁路自然条件的严酷性,要求监测手段具有可靠性和耐久性以及对复杂自然条件变化的适应性。文章提出一种自动观测多年冻土地温和路基变形,并能够实现数据无线传输的现场监测系统设计方案,通过现场试验,证明这种监测系统能够适应青藏高原恶劣的自然条件,减轻了人工监测的劳苦,具有可靠性和耐久性。作者还提出了能够简便判断冻土区工程安全可靠性的监测数据分析方法,对目前冻土区工程安全可靠性分析具有一定的理论指导作用。     

吉尔嘎朗图凹陷宝饶洼槽下白垩统层序地层与沉积体系

运用高分辨率层序地层学原理和方法,通过对钻井和地震资料的综合分析,在二连盆地吉尔嘎朗图凹陷下白垩统中识别出1个超长期基准面旋回(二级层序)SSC1和5个长期基准面旋回(三级层序):LSC1,LSC2,LSC3,LSC4,LSC5,分析了各旋回的发育特征。识别出五种类型的沉积体系:滨浅湖近岸水下扇、较深水湖浊积扇、滨浅湖扇三角洲、滨浅湖辫状河三角洲和河流沉积体系,并在等时地层格架内分析了各基准面旋回的沉积体系构成和储层砂体的发育情况。综合分析生、诸、盖条件后认为,在垂向上,LSC3旋回为本区最有利的储集层段,在平面上,本区的油气勘探应主要寻找宝饶构造带辫状河三角洲前缘砂体,主要储层砂体类型为前缘分流水道砂和前缘席状砂。     

华南下寒武统镍钼矿层中铜铅锌矿物的发现及意义

华南扬子地块是我国古热水沉积成矿作用最为发育的地区之一,其热水沉积特性最早引起我国学者的关注。华南下寒武统黑色岩系中赋存多个与热水沉积成矿作用相关的大型、超大型重晶石矿床与N i-Mo-U-V多金属富集层。进一步研究分布在华南扬子地块黑色岩系中的金属、非金属矿床成因及其地球化学特征,对认识华南乃至全球晚震旦—早寒武世生物与环境演化有着十分重要的意义。本文对华南下寒武统镍-钼富集层矿石进行电子探针研究,识别出黄铜矿、黝铜矿等铜的独立矿物;闪锌矿等锌的独立矿物;方铅矿、白铅矿等铅的独立矿物。研究表明,在镍-钼矿石中这些矿物的发现为镍-钼矿层是热水沉积作用产物提供了直接的矿物学证据。     

邻苯二酚螯合树脂的合成及水样中铝的测定

合成并表征了新螯合树脂———邻苯二酚螯合树脂(XAD-2-Catechol),研究了XAD-2-Catechol吸附铝的特性和茜素红-铝的显色反应,在pH4.5的HAc-NaAc缓冲介质中,茜素红和铝(Ⅲ)反应生成红色络合物,λm ax=500 nm,铝的含量在0-50μg/25 mL内符合比耳定律。建立了邻苯二酚螯合树脂分离/富集-茜素红分光光度法测定天然水样中铝的新方法,对水样中铝形态进行测定,结果满意。