A Review of Research on Tropical Air-Sea Interaction,ENSO Dynamics,and ENSO Prediction in China

Remarkable progress has been made in observations, theories, and simulations of the ocean-atmosphere system, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate prediction, among which Chinese scientists have made important contributions. This paper reviews Chinese research on tropical air-sea interaction, ENSO dynamics, and ENSO prediction in the past 70 years. Review of the tropical air-sea interaction mainly focuses on four aspects: characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO; main modes of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific; main modes of tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions; and influences of the mid-high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO. Review of the ENSO dynamics involves seven aspects: fundamental theories of ENSO; diagnosis and simulation of ENSO; the two types of ENSO; mechanisms of ENSO initiation; the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena; external forcings and teleconnections; and climate change and the ENSO response. The ENSO prediction part briefly summarizes the dynamical-statistical methods used in ENSO prediction, as well as the operational ENSO prediction systems and their applications. Lastly, we discuss some of the issues in these areas that are in need of further study.     

青岛市秋冬季霾期PM1及其含碳组分理化特征及来源研究

对2017年11月1日—2018年1月31日与2018年11月1日—2019年1月31日连续两年青岛市大气PM₁进行监测,获取了PM₁中含碳组分的变化趋势,结合国控站点监测数据和气象条件,分析了秋冬季PM₁来源.结果表明：2017、2018年秋冬季观测期间PM₁日均质量浓度分别为40.58±25.98、42.55±25.05 μg/m³;霾日质量浓度分别为84.71±16.70、81.52±18.39 μg/m³.与2017年相比,2018年同期PM₁质量浓度增长4.85%,霾日下降3.76%.2017年霾日PM₁中OC、EC质量浓度分别为13.67±3.95、3.95±1.02 μg/m³,2018年分别为16.48±6.34、3.34±1.16 μg/m³.与2017年相比,2018年霾日OC质量浓度增长20.56%,EC下降15.44%.2017、2018年霾日SOC质量浓度分别是非霾日的1.28和2.15倍,表明霾污染发生时易发生有机碳二次转化.含碳组分主成分分析均解析出3个因子.因子1解释变量均最大,分别为58.98%、67.14%,其表征含碳组分主要源于生物质燃烧、燃煤、道路扬尘及汽油车尾气等排放源.由后向气流轨迹分析得出,2017、2018年秋冬季气团轨迹多起源于内蒙古,经河北、天津、山东等省市抵达青岛.     

云南风能资源及其开发利用研究进展

介绍了云南风能资源及其开发利用的研究现状和研究成果。分析了云南风能资源评价历程、分布特点和风电开发建设情况。总结了云南有关风电场选址、风能资源评估、风电功率预测预报以及山区风电场和风电机组设计的研究成果。剖析了云南风能资源及其开发利用中存在的问题并提出今后的发展方向。     

大气季节内振荡对夏季登陆广东台风的影响

基于热带气旋最佳路径资料和向外长波辐射数据,结合高斯滤波、经验正交函数分解和合成分析等方法,探讨了20~90 d周期的MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)和10~20 d周期的QBWO(Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation)两类大气季节内振荡对夏季(5-9月)登陆广东台风的影响。结果表明:MJO和QBWO对登陆广东台风个数、强度、位置和运动方向均有显著影响:当MJO和QBWO的对流中心(抑制中心)靠近广东沿岸时,登陆广东的台风数量多(少)、强度大(小)、登陆位置偏东(西)、登陆后东向运动的台风数量偏多(少)。在此基础上,还进一步探讨了MJO和QBWO对生成于南海和西北太平洋的这两类登陆广东台风的影响及两者对登陆广东台风的共同影响。     

榆林飞播林区土壤地球化学特征

以榆林飞播林区的土壤微生物、土壤养分和土壤可溶性盐为研究对象,对林区土壤可溶性盐的变化规律及其与土壤养分、微生物的相关性进行研究,为水土资源可持续利用以及飞播造林功效的提高提供理论依据.研究表明,研究区土壤属硫酸盐型,土壤层分异特征不显著,土壤仍处于初级发育阶段.土壤总盐与养分的相关性不明显,适当增加K⁺利于真菌的存活和生物量的积累,在1 kg土壤中,每增加1 g K⁺,真菌数量就会增加14个左右.在土层表层,适量减少Cl^-能促进土壤细菌的生长,在40 cm土层的盐分上行过程中出现表聚现象,在土壤中层,出现板结现象,在土壤底层,HCO₃^-和Na⁺质量分数的增加,有利于土壤全氮质量分数的增加,且HCO₃^-的影响力最强.     

6月MJO对广东降水调制与直接影响系统的联系

利用1979—2008年广东省86个测站逐日降水资料及NCEP-DOE第2套分析资料等,提出影响广东500 hPa环流系统的判别方法,分析6月赤道MJO (季节内振荡) 活动对广东降水的调制作用随中低纬度环流型的变化。结果表明:强MJO第3位相广东出现强降水的概率最高,是8个位相中唯一强降水等级出现日数超过弱降水日数的位相。在直接影响广东的5种500 hPa环流系统 (包括西风槽、西风浅槽、平直西风或高压边缘、副热带高压、热带低压槽) 中,西风槽类型影响时,赤道MJO对广东降水的调制作用最强,其他环流类型影响时,MJO的调制作用很弱。广东在西风槽影响下,当处于MJO第3位相 (第6位相) 时,降水距平百分率达到最高 (低)。MJO对广东降水的调制作用随中低纬度环流系统的变化,主要是环流系统之间的不同配合导致降水所需的动力上升条件和水汽输送条件的相互配合发生变化造成的。     

Investigation on semi-direct and indirect climate effects of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol over China

A Regional Climate Chemistry Modeling System that employed empirical parameterizations of aerosol-cloud microphysics was applied to investigate the spatial distribution, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of black carbon (BC) over China. Results showed high levels of BC in Southwest, Central, and East China, with maximum surface concentrations, column burden, and optical depth (AOD) up to 14 μg?m^?3, 8 mg?m^?2, and 0.11, respectively. Black carbon was found to result in a positive RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to its direct effect while a negative RF due to its indirect effect. The regional-averaged direct and indirect RF of BC in China was about +0.81 and ?0.95 W?m^?2, respectively, leading to a net RF of ?0.15 W?m^?2 at the TOA. The BC indirect RF was larger than its direct RF in South China. Due to BC absorption of solar radiation, cloudiness was decreased by 1.33 %, further resulting in an increase of solar radiation and subsequently a surface warming over most parts of China, which was opposite to BC’s indirect effect. Further, the net effect of BC might cause a decrease of precipitation of ?7.39 % over China. Investigations also suggested large uncertainties and non-linearity in BC’s indirect effect on regional climate. Results suggested that: (a) changes in cloud cover might be more affected by BC’s direct effect, while changes in surface air temperature and precipitation might be influenced by BC’s indirect effect; and (b) BC second indirect effect might have more influence on cloud cover and water content compared to first indirect effect. This study highlighted a substantial role of BC on regional climate changes.     

Ensemble data assimilation in a simple coupled climate model: The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction

A conceptual coupled ocean-atmosphere model was used to study coupled ensemble data assimilation schemes with a focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the assimilation. The optimal scheme was the fully coupled data assimilation scheme that employs the coupled covariance matrix and assimilates observations in both the atmosphere and ocean. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability that captures the temporal fluctuation of the weather noise was found to be critical for the estimation of not only the atmospheric, but also oceanic states. The synoptic atmosphere observation was especially important in the mid-latitude system, where oceanic variability is driven by weather noise. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability in the coupled model improved the atmospheric variability in the analysis and the subsequent forecasts, reducing error in the surface forcing and, in turn, in the ocean state. Atmospheric observation was able to further improve the oceanic state estimation directly through the coupled covariance between the atmosphere and ocean states. Relative to the mid-latitude system, the tropical system was influenced more by ocean-atmosphere interaction and, thus, the assimilation of oceanic observation becomes more important for the estimation of the ocean and atmosphere.     

Simulating urban flow and dispersion in Beijing by coupling a CFD model with the WRF model

The airflow and dispersion of a pollutant in a complex urban area of Beijing, China, were numerically examined by coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics （CFD） model with a mesoscale weather model. The models used were Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation （OpenFOAM） software package and Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. OpenFOAM was firstly validated against wind-tunnel experiment data. Then, the WRF model was integrated for 42 h starting from 0800 LST 08 September 2009, and the coupled model was used to compute the flow fields at 1000 LST and 1400 LST 09 September 2009. During the WRF-simulated period, a high pressure system was dominant over the Beijing area. The WRF-simulated local circulations were characterized by mountain valley winds, which matched well with observations. Results from the coupled model simulation demonstrated that the airflows around actual buildings were quite different from the ambient wind on the boundary provided by the WRF model, and the pollutant dispersion pattern was complicated under the influence of buildings. A higher concentration level of the pollutant near the surface was found in both the step-down and step-up notches, but the reason for this higher level in each configurations was different： in the former, it was caused by weaker vertical flow, while in the latter it was caused by a downward-shifted vortex. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the coupled WRF-OpenFOAM model is an important tool that can be used for studying and predicting urban flow and dispersions in densely built-up areas.     

从NOAA卫星AVHRR资料反演中国区域地表反照率

由NOAA卫星AVHRR短波通道1、2反射率反演地表反照率需要3个反演模式,分别是窄-宽波段反射率转换模式、大气顶双向反射模式、大气订正模式.基于模式和国家卫星气象中心接收处理的NOAA-18 AVHRR1B数据,处理了2006年1月至2010年12月的中国区域地表反照率,由于云的影响,15天合成技术用来形成周期为15天的地表反照率数据文件.2006年、2010年2年的处理结果与MODIS同类产品对比,RMS为0.028～0.074、相关系数为0.76～0.93,误差较大出现在冬季,原因是两者15天合成方法不同;5年的日平均地表反照率与21个中国地面气象一级辐射站的观测测值作对比,结果是：RMS为0.053、相关系数为0.88.反演模式系统误差以及云和气溶胶影响是卫星反演地表反照率的主要误差来源.