The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO₂ forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m^?2 K^?1 (0.60 W m^?2 K^?1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m^?2 K^?1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m^?2 K^?1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m^?2 K^?1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity.     

A numerical investigation of the impacts of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on regional climate in East Asia

Aerosol and its effects, especially its indirect effects, on climate have drawn more and more attention in recent years. In this study, the first indirect radiative forcing (RF) of sulfate aerosol and its impacts on the regional climate in East Asia during the period from December 2008 to November 2009 were investigated. Affected by the general circulation and the conversion efficiency from SO₂ to SO₄ ^2? in aqueous phase, a remarkable seasonal variation of sulfate was found. The results show that the highest sulfate concentration as large as 24 g m^?2 appears in the summer. The indirect RF due to sulfate aerosol at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and the surface is negative, which leads to a cooling effect on the surface by 0.12°C and a reduction of precipitation by 0.01 mm d^?1. The tendencies of temperature and rainfall have significant diversity in space and time. The cloud feedback, associated with the hydrologic cycle and energy budget, is responsible for this discordant distribution. The variation of low cloud dominates the change of surface temperature. The subsidence due to the cooling effect in the mid atmosphere restrained and reduced the low clouds, leading to an apparent warm effect on the surface in Northeast Mongolia.     

Direct and semi-direct radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols in the Western United States: Seasonal and geographical variations according to regional climate characteristics

The direct and semi-direct radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the radiative transfer and cloud fields in the Western United States (WUS) according to seasonal aerosol optical depth (AOD) and regional climate are examined using a regional climate model (RCM) in conjunction with the aerosol fields from a GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model (CTM) simulation. The two radiative effects cannot be separated within the experimental design in this study, thus the combined direct- and semi-direct effects are called radiative effects hereafter. The CTM shows that the AOD associated with the anthropogenic aerosols is chiefly due to sulfates with minor contributions from black carbon (BC) and that the AOD of the anthropogenic aerosol varies according to local emissions and the seasonal low-level winds. The RCM-simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects vary according to the characteristics of regional climate, in addition to the AOD. The effects on the top of the atmosphere (TOA) outgoing shortwave radiation (OSRT) range from ?0.2?Wm^?2 to ?1?Wm^?2. In Northwestern US (NWUS), the maximum and minimum impact of anthropogenic aerosols on OSRT occurs in summer and winter, respectively, following the seasonal AOD. In Arizona-New Mexico (AZNM), the effect of anthropogenic sulfates on OSRT shows a bimodal distribution with winter/summer minima and spring/fall maxima, while the effect of anthropogenic BC shows a single peak in summer. The anthropogenic aerosols affect surface insolation range from ?0.6?Wm^?2 to ?2.4?Wm^?2, with similar variations found for the effects on OSRT except that the radiative effects of anthropogenic BC over AZNM show a bimodal distribution with spring/fall maxima and summer/winter minima. The radiative effects of anthropogenic sulfates on TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the surface downward longwave radiation (DLRS) are notable only in summer and are characterized by strong geographical contrasts; the summer OLR in NWUS (AZNM) is reduced (enhanced) by 0.52?Wm^?2 (1.14?Wm^?2). The anthropogenic sulfates enhance (reduce) summer DLRS by 0.2?Wm^?2 (0.65?Wm^?2) in NWUS (AZNM). The anthropogenic BC affect DLRS noticeably only in AZNM during summer. The anthropogenic aerosols affect the cloud water path (CWP) and the radiative transfer noticeably only in summer when convective clouds are dominant. Primarily shortwave-reflecting anthropogenic sulfates decrease and increase CWP in AZNM and NWUS, respectively, however, the shortwave-absorbing anthropogenic BC reduces CWP in both regions. Due to strong feedback via convective clouds, the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the summer radiation field are more closely correlated with the changes in CWP than the AOD. The radiative effect of the total anthropogenic aerosols is dominated by the anthropogenic sulfates that contribute more than 80% of the total AOD associated with the anthropogenic aerosols.     

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at ?0.15 W m^?2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m^?2. The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060–2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with ?0.34 and ?0.28 W m^?2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total cooling effect of aerosols becomes weaker throughout the twenty-first century compared with the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, both surface ozone and aerosol content show very different regional features depending on the future scenario considered. Hence, in 2050, surface ozone changes vary between ?12 and +12 ppbv over Asia depending on the RCP projection, whereas the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing can locally exceed ?3 W m^?2.     

Regional Climate Effects of Internally and Externally Mixed Aerosols over China

A regional climate model is employed to simulate the aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and their direct effect on the climate over China.The emphasis is on the direct radiative forcing due to the change in mixing state of aerosols.The results show that direct radiative forcing is significantly different between externally and internally mixed aerosols.At the top of the atmosphere(TOA),the radiative forcing of externally mixed aerosols is larger than that of internally mixed ones,especially in the Tarim desert region where the difference is about 0.7 W m 2.At the surface,however,the situation becomes opposite,especially in the Sichuan basin where the difference is about-1.4 W m 2.Nonetheless,either externally or internally mixed aerosols in China can result in a significant cooling effect,except for the warming in South China in winter and the slight warming in North China in February.The cooling effect induced by externally mixed aerosols is weaker than that induced by internally mixed aerosols,and this is more obvious in spring and winter than in summer and autumn.In spring and summer,the inhibiting effect of externally mixed aerosols on precipitation is less than that of internally mixed aerosols,whereas in autumn and winter the difference is not obvious.     

Investigation on the direct radiative effect of fossil fuel black-carbon aerosol over China

In China, due to lack of countrywide monitoring and coarse emission inventory of black carbon (BC) in early years, there are large uncertainties as to the estimations of its loading, direct radiative forcing (DRF) and climate response. Here, we apply an up-to-date emission inventory of BC in 2006 to investigate its loading, optical depth (AOD) at 550?nm and DRF using the coupled Regional Climate Chemistry Modeling System (RegCCMS). A state of the art air quality model (WRF/Chem) is also used to access surface BC concentration. Simulated surface concentrations of BC from these two models were compared with observations, while the AOD was compared with the results both from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and from satellite and ground-based simulations. Results show that RegCCMS presented similar patterns and levels of annual mean-surface BC concentration to those of WRF/Chem. The regional distributions and monthly variations of RegCCMS BC were reproduced well in comparison to observations. Simulated pattern of AODs are consistent to but lower than those from satellite (Omi-0.25°) and AERONET simulations. Annual mean DRFs mainly distribute in the area with high BC loadings, with regional mean of 0.75?W?m^?C2 and predicted global mean of 0.343?W?m^?C2. In general, the results are about 0.4?C5 times for regional column burden, about 2 times as high for regional mean DRFs, about 1.3?C1.8 times for global mean DRFs and about 3?C4 times for AOD at 550?nm as compared to those in previous studies in China. These increasing DRFs of BC imply that its warming effect and climate response should be stronger and the DRF of total aerosols should be weaker (less negative).     

The radiative forcing benefits of “cool roof” construction in California: quantifying the climate impacts of building albedo modification

Exploiting surface albedo change has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the heating effect of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent modeling experiments have projected significant negative radiative forcing from large-scale implementation of albedo reduction technologies (“cool” roofs and pavements). This paper complements such model studies with measurement-based calculations of the direct radiation balance impacts of replacement of conventional roofing with “cool” roof materials in California. This analysis uses, as a case study, the required changes to commercial buildings embodied in California’s building energy efficiency regulations, representing a total of 4300 ha of roof area distributed over 16 climate zones. The estimated statewide mean radiative forcing per 0.01 increase in albedo (here labeled RF01) is ?1.38 W/m². The resulting unit-roof-area mean annual radiative forcing impact of this regulation is ?44.2 W/m². This forcing is computed to counteract the positive radiative forcing of ambient atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of about 41 kg for each square meter of roof. Aggregated over the 4300 ha of cool roof estimated built in the first decade after adoption of the State regulation, this is comparable to removing about 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) of CO₂ from the atmosphere. The point radiation data used in this study also provide perspective on the spatial variability of cool roof radiative forcing in California, with individual climate zone effectiveness ranging from ?37 to ?59 W/m² of roof. These “bottom-up” calculations validate the estimates reported for published “top down” modeling, highlight the large spatial diversity of the effects of albedo change within even a limited geographical area, and offer a potential methodology for regulatory agencies to account for the climate effects of “cool” roofing in addition to its well-known energy efficiency benefits.     

Modeling of the Second Indirect Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols in East Asia

This study investigated the second indirect climatic effect of anthropogenic aerosols,including sulfate,organic carbon(OC) ,and black carbon(BC) ,over East Asia.The seasonal variation of the climatic response to the second indirect effect was also characterized.The simulation period for this study was 2006.Due to a decrease in autoconversion rate from cloud water to rain as a result of aerosols,the cloud liquid water path(LWP) ,and radiative flux(RF) at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) changed dramatically,increasing by 14.3 g m-2 and decreasing by-4.1 W m-2 in terms of domain and annual average.Both LWP and RF changed most in autumn. There were strong decreases in ground temperature in Southwest China,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and autumn,while maximum cooling of up to-1.5 K occurred in the Chongqing district.The regional and annual mean change in ground temperature reached-0.2 K over eastern China.In all seasons except summer,precipitation generally decreased in most areas north of the Yangtze River,whereas precipitation changed little in South China.Precipitation changed most in summer,with alternating bands of increasing(～40 mm) and decreasing(～40 mm) precipitation appearing in eastern China.Precipitation decreased by 1.5-40 mm over large areas of Northeast China and the Huabei Plain.The domain and annual mean change in precipitation was approximately-0.3 mm over eastern China.The maximum reduction in precipitation occurred in summer,with mean absolute and relative changes of-1.2 mm and-3.8%over eastern China.This study revealed considerable climate responses to the second indirect effect of aerosols over specific regions of China.     

On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback

Snow-albedo feedback (SAF) is examined in 25 climate change simulations participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). SAF behavior is compared to the feedback’s behavior in the previous (CMIP3) generation of global models. SAF strength exhibits a fivefold spread across CMIP5 models, ranging from 0.03 to 0.16 W m^?2 K^?1 (ensemble-mean = 0.08 W m^?2 K^?1). This accounts for much of the spread in 21st century warming of Northern Hemisphere land masses, and is very similar to the spread found in CMIP3 models. As with the CMIP3 models, there is a high degree of correspondence between the magnitudes of seasonal cycle and climate change versions of the feedback. Here we also show that their geographical footprint is similar. The ensemble-mean SAF strength is close to an observed estimate of the real climate’s seasonal cycle feedback strength. SAF strength is strongly correlated with the climatological surface albedo when the ground is covered by snow. The inter-model variation in this quantity is surprisingly large, ranging from 0.39 to 0.75. Models with large surface albedo when these regions are snow-covered will also have a large surface albedo contrast between snow-covered and snow-free regions, and therefore a correspondingly large SAF. Widely-varying treatments of vegetation masking of snow-covered surfaces are probably responsible for the spread in surface albedo where snow occurs, and the persistent spread in SAF in global climate models.     

Biogenic hydrogen sulphide emissions and non-sea sulfate aerosols over the Indian Sundarban mangrove forest

Temporal variations in atmospheric hydrogen sulphide concentrations and its biosphere-atmosphere exchanges were studied in the World’s largest mangrove ecosystem, Sundarbans, India. The results were used to understand the possible contribution of H₂S fluxes in the formation of atmospheric aerosol of different size classes (e.g. accumulation, nucleation and coarse mode). The mixing ratio of hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) over the Sundarban mangrove atmosphere was found maximum during the post-monsoon season (October to January) with a mean value of 0.59?±?0.02 ppb and the minimum during pre-monsoon (February to May) with a mean value of 0.26?±?0.01 ppb. This forest acted as a perennial source of H₂S and the sediment-air emission flux ranged between 1213?±?276 μg S m^?2 d^?1(December) and 457?±?114 μg S m^?2 d^?1 (August) with an annual mean of 768?±?240 μg S m^?2d^?1. The total annual emissions of H₂S from the Indian Sundarban were estimated to be 1.2?±?0.6 Tg S. The accumulation mode of aerosols was found to be more enriched with non-sea salt sulfate with an average loading of 5.74 μg m^?3 followed by the coarse mode (5.18 μg m^?3) and nucleation mode (1.18 μg m^?3). However, the relative contribution of Non-sea salt sulfate aerosol to total sulfate aerosol was highest in the nucleation mode (83%) followed by the accumulation (73%) and coarse mode (58%). Significant positive relations between H₂S flux and different modes of NSS indicated the likely link between H₂S, a dominant precursor for the non-sea salt sulfate, and non-sea sulfate aerosol particles. An increase in H₂S emissions from the mangrove could result in an increase in enhanced NSS in aerosol and associated cloud albedo, and a decrease in the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the Sundarban mangrove forest.     

Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal

Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land, water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y^?1. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C y^?1 via tropical afforestation would require at least 7?×?10⁶ ha y^?1 of land, 0.09 Tg y^?1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y^?1 of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 %. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2?×?10⁸ ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y^?1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production), consuming 4?×?10¹²?m³ y^?1 of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.     

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low-resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ～50 mW m^?2 K^?1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m^?2 K^?1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (～38 mW m^?2 K^?1). Another 13 mW m^?2 K^?1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m^?2 K^?1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ～1 mW m^?2 K^?1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m^?2 K^?1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.     

Impact of 3-D topography on surface radiation budget over the Tibetan Plateau

The 3-D complex topography effect on the surface solar radiative budget over the Tibetan Plateau is investigated by means of a parameterization approach on the basis of “exact” 3-D Monte Carlo photon tracing simulations, which use 90 m topography data as building blocks. Using a demonstrative grid size of 10?×?10 km², we show that differences in downward surface solar fluxes for a clear sky without aerosols between the 3-D model and the conventional plane-parallel radiative transfer scheme are substantial, on the order of 200 W/m² at shaded or sunward slopes. Deviations in the reflected fluxes of the direct solar beam amount to about +100 W/m² over snow-covered areas, which would lead to an enhanced snowmelt if the 3-D topography effects had been accounted for in current climate models. We further demonstrate that the entire Tibetan Plateau would receive more solar flux by about 14 W/m², if its 3-D mountain structure was included in the calculations, which would result in larger sensible and latent heat transfer from the surface to the atmosphere.     

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6?±?1 Gta^?1, which decreases about sixfold to -35?±?2 Gta^?1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12?±?2 Gta^?1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.     

Does the integration of the dynamic nitrogen cycle in a terrestrial biosphere model improve the long-term trend of the leaf area index?

The carbon cycle strongly interacts with the nitrogen cycle. Several observations show that the effects of global change on primary production and carbon storage in plant biomass and soils are partially controlled by N availability. Nevertheless, only a small number of terrestrial biosphere models represent explicitly the nitrogen cycle, despite its importance on the carbon cycle and on climate. These models are difficult to evaluate at large spatiotemporal scales because of the scarcity of data at the global scale over a long time period. In this study, we benchmark the capacity of the O–CN global terrestrial biosphere model to reproduce temporal changes in leaf area index (LAI) at the global scale observed by NOAA_AVHRR satellites over the period 1982–2002. Using a satellite LAI product based on the normalized difference vegetation index of global inventory monitoring and modelling studies dataset, we estimate the long-term trend of LAI and we compare it with the results from the terrestrial biosphere models, either with (O–CN) or without (O–C) a dynamic nitrogen cycle coupled to the carbon–water-energy cycles. In boreal and temperate regions, including a dynamic N cycle (O–CN) improved the fit between observed and modeled temporal changes in LAI. In contrast, in the tropics, simulated LAI from the model without the dynamic N cycle (O–C) better matched observed changes in LAI over time. Despite differential regional trends, the satellite estimate suggests an increase in the global average LAI during 1982–2002 by 0.0020 m² m^?2 y^?1. Both versions of the model substantially overestimated the rate of change in LAI over time (0.0065 m² m^?2 y^?1 for O–C and 0.0057 m² m^?2 y^?1 for O–CN), suggesting that some additional limitation mechanisms are missing in the model. We also estimated the relative importance of climate, CO₂ and N deposition as potential drivers of the temporal changes in LAI. We found that recent climate change better explained temporal changes in LAI when the dynamic N cycle was included in the model (higher ranked fit for O–CN vs. O–C). Using the O–C configuration to estimate the direct effect of climate on LAI, we quantified the importance of climate-N cycle feedbacks in explaining the LAI response. We found that the warming-induced release of N from soil organic matter decomposition explains 17.5 % of the global trend in LAI over time, however, reaching up to 40.9 % explained variance in the boreal zone, which is a more important contribution than increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Our analysis supports a strong connection between warming, N cycling, and vegetation productivity. These findings underscore the importance of including N cycling in global-scale models of vegetation response to environmental change.     

Modeling Study of Aerosol Indirect Effects on Global Climate with an AGCM

Aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) on global climate were quantitatively investigated by introducing aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations for water stratus clouds into an AGCM (BCC AGCM2.0.1), which was developed by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration. The study yielded a global annual mean of -1.14 W m-2 for the first indirect radiative forcing (IRF), with an obvious seasonal change. In summer, large forcing mainly occurred in mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hem...     

Optical,Radiative and Chemical Characteristics of Aerosol in Changsha City,Central China

Industrial pollution has a significant effect on aerosol properties in Changsha City, a typical city of central China. Therefore, year-round measurements of aerosol optical, radiative and chemical properties from 2012 to 2014 at an urban site in Changsha were analyzed. During the observation period, the energy structure was continuously optimized, which was characterized by the reduction of coal combustion. The aerosol properties have obvious seasonal variations. The seasonal average aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm ranged from 0.49 to 1.00, single scattering albedo (SSA) ranged from 0.93 to 0.97, and aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) ranged from ?24.0 to 3.8 W m^?2. The chemical components also showed seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the scattering aerosol, such as organic carbon, SO₄^2?, NO₃^?, and NH₄⁺ showed a decrease, and elemental carbon increased. Compared with observation in winter 2012, AOD and TOA decreased by 0.14 and ?1.49 W m^?2 in winter 2014. The scattering components, SO₄^2?, NO₃^? and NH₄⁺, decreased by 12.8 μg m^?3 (56.8%), 9.2 μg m^?3 (48.8%) and 6.4 μg m^?3 (45.2%), respectively. The atmospheric visibility and pollution diffusion conditions improved. The extinction and radiative forcing of aerosol were significantly controlled by the scattering aerosol. The results indicate that Changsha is an industrial city with strong scattering aerosol. The energy structure optimization had a marked effect on controlling pollution, especially in winter (strong scattering aerosol).     

A more accurate scheme for calculating Earth’s skin temperature

The theoretical framework of the vertical discretization of a ground column for calculating Earth’s skin temperature is presented. The suggested discretization is derived from the evenly heat-content discretization with the optimal effective thickness for layer-temperature simulation. For the same level number, the suggested discretization is more accurate in skin temperature as well as surface ground heat flux simulations than those used in some state-of-the-art models. A proposed scheme (“op(3,2,0)”) can reduce the normalized root–mean–square error (or RMSE/STD ratio) of the calculated surface ground heat flux of a cropland site significantly to 2% (or 0.9 W m^?2), from 11% (or 5 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECMWF, from 19% (or 8 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECHAM, and from 74% (or 32 W m^?2) by a single-layer scheme used in the UCLA GCM. Better accuracy can be achieved by including more layers to the vertical discretization. Similar improvements are expected for other locations with different land types since the numerical error is inherited into the models for all the land types. The proposed scheme can be easily implemented into state-of-the-art climate models for the temperature simulation of snow, ice and soil.     

Assessment of the first indirect radiative effect of ammonium-sulfate-nitrate aerosols in East Asia

A physically based cloud nucleation parameterization was introduced into an optical properties/radiative transfer module incorporated with the off-line air quality modeling system Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)-Models-3 Community Multi Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) to investigate the distribution features of the first indirect radiative effects of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium-sulfate-nitrate (ASN) over East Asia for the years of 2005, 2010, and 2013. The relationship between aerosol particles and cloud droplet number concentration could be properly described by this parameterization because the simulated cloud fraction and cloud liquid water path were generally reliable compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieved data. Simulation results showed that the strong effect of indirect forcing was mainly concentrated in Southeast China, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Japan. The highest indirect radiative forcing of ASN reached ?3.47 W m^?2 over Southeast China and was obviously larger than the global mean of the indirect forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols. In addition, sulfate provided about half of the contribution to the ASN indirect forcing effect. However, the effect caused by nitrate was weak because the mass burden of nitrate was very low during summer, whereas the cloud fraction was the highest. The analysis indicated that even though the interannual variation of indirect forcing magnitude generally followed the trend of aerosol mass burden from 2005 to 2013, the cloud fraction was an important factor that determined the distribution pattern of indirect forcing. The heaviest aerosol loading in North China did not cause a strong radiative effect because of the low cloud fraction over this region.     

Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India

General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth’s surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg?ha^?1 for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg?ha^?1 for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO₂] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country’s total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India.