基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

高温加速度传感器关键技术研究

为了满足深井和核电站强震动观测需求,研制一种能在100℃ 130℃环境下有效连续工作的力平衡反馈加速度计,并重新设计其电路方案,主要利用高温分立元件重新设计检波及前后级放大电路,并对其余电路进行升级改造.样机实验结果表明:设计方案满足要求,具有一定的实用性.     

Modeling urban land use conversion of Daqing City,China: a comparative analysis of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches

During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

汶川地震(Ms8.0）地表建筑体变形特征及其构造意义

通过汶川地震震区大量的实地考察已证实沿着早先活动断裂主要发育了两条地表破裂带：一条是沿着映秀－北川断裂产生的逆冲伴随右旋走滑破裂带,长275km,最大垂直位移达11m,水平位移达12m; 另一条纯逆冲性质的破裂带,沿着灌县－安县断裂发育,最大垂直位移达4m。活动断裂之上的地表破裂带是野外工作中确定地震断裂性质的重要现象。另外,在活动断裂相邻区域和远离区域的路面以及建筑体还大量存在变形现象。通常沿活动断裂产生的地表破裂是典型的同震破裂,相邻区域的地表路面及建筑体发育的变形属于次生变形,远离区域发育的变形则属于震后变形。对次生变形和震后变形测量数据的应用容易影响活动断裂特征的确定和性质的判断,因为路面等建筑体上的挤压拱起、叠置以及水平错断等现象多是受到地震过程中通过断裂活动突然释放的巨大能量作用在局部地表建筑体产生的变形。但是,分布广泛的挤压现象暗示了区域上挤压应力场环境,有利于地表同震破裂位置的推测及地震断裂性质的判断。     

Evidence for Tibetan Plateau Uplift in Qaidam Basin before Eocene-Oligocene Boundary and Its Climatic Implications

Geometry analysis of the Hongsanhan (红三旱) Section in the northwestern Qaidam basin illustrates the typical growth strata in the Xiaganchaigou (下干柴沟) Formation. The age and sedimentation rates of the Xiaganchaigou and the Shangganchaigou (上干柴沟) formations were determined by the high-resolution magnetostratigraphy. This result shows that the growth strata began to form at ca. 38.0 Ma and increased sedimentation rates occurred at ca. 37.0 Ma. The uplift of the Tibetan plateau before the Eocene-Oligocene boundary is confirmed, which enables us to better understand the relationship between climatic changes and the tectonic uplift. This uplift event could have resuited in the regional drying by blocking the moisture and contributed to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary global cooling event due to the declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increased weathering of the mountains.     

Detrital apatite fission track analyses of the Subei basin: implications for basin-range structure of the northern Tibetan Plateau

The northern Tibetan Plateau has evolved a unique basin-range structure characterized by alternating elongated mountain ranges and basins over a history of multiple tectonic and fault activities. The Subei basin recorded evolution of this basin-range structure. In this study, detailed detrital apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronological studies in conjunction with previously documented data reveal provenance of the Subei basin, important information about the Indo-Eurasia collision, and two Miocene uplift and exhumation events of the northern Tibetan Plateau. Detrital AFT analyses combined with sedimentary evidences demonstrate that the Danghenanshan Mountains is the major provenance of the Subei basin. In addition, very old age peaks indicate that part sediments in the Subei basin are recycling sediments. Age peak populations of 70–44 Ma and 61–45 Ma from the lower and upper Baiyanghe formations record the tectono-thermal response to the Indo-Eurasia collision. Combined detrital AFT thermochronology, magnetostratigraphy and petrography results demonstrate the middle Miocene uplift and exhumation event initiated 14–12 Ma in the Subei basin, which may resulted from the Miocene east-west extension of the Tibetan Plateau. Another stronger uplift and exhumation event occurred in the late Miocene resulted from strengthened tectonic movement and climate. A much younger AFT grain age, breccia of diluvial facies and boulders of root fan subfacies record the late Miocene unroofing in the Danghenanshan Mountains.     

A New Species of Cupressinocladus from the Lower Cretaceous of Guyang Basin, Inner Mongolia, China and Cluster Analysis

Cupressinocladus Seward is a fossil genus of conifers and conifer fossils with reproductive organs are very rare. In general, it is difficult to understand the natural affinities with other conifers. In this paper, a new species, Cupressinocladus guyangensis P.H. Jin et B.N. Sun sp. nov., is reported based on branches with immature female cones from the Lower Cretaceous Guyang Formation of the Guyang Basin in Inner Mongolia, northern China. The foliage shoots are decussate. Leaves are decussate, imbricate, scale-like, weakly dimorphic, and bear longitudinal glands on the abaxial view. Stomata complexes are haplocheilic, monocyclic, irregularly arranged, and spread along the leaf margin. Immature female cones are subglobose with 6–8 cone scales, and three subglobose ovules arranged in a row at the base of the cone scales. Moreover, we performed cluster analysis using a statistics and machine learning toolbox for 23 fossils and extant species based on 16 morphological characters. The result implies that the new species bears a close resemblance to the extant Cupressus funebris Endl. and might have nearest systematic affinities to it.