Numerical Analysis of Groundwater Ridging Processes Considering Water‐Air Flow in a Hillslope

In this study, a water‐air two‐phase flow model was employed to investigate the formation, extension, and dissipation of groundwater ridging induced by recharge events in a hypothetical hillslope‐riparian zone, considering interactions between the liquid and gas phases in soil voids. The simulation results show that, after a rain begins, the groundwater table near the stream is elevated instantaneously and significantly, thereby generating a pressure gradient driving water toward both the stream (the discharge of groundwater to the stream) and upslope (the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope). Meanwhile, the airflow upslope triggered by the advancing wetting front moves downward gradually. Therefore, the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope and the downward airflow interact within a certain region. After the rain stops, groundwater ridging near the stream declines quickly while the airflow in the lower part of upslope is still moving into the hillslope. Thus, the airflow upslope mitigates the dissipation of groundwater ridging. Additionally, the development of groundwater ridging under different conditions, including rain intensity, intrinsic permeability, capillary fringe height, and initial groundwater table, was analyzed. Changes in intrinsic permeability affect the magnitude of groundwater ridging near the stream, as well as the downward speed of airflow, thereby generating highly complex responses. The capillary fringe is not a controlling factor but an influence factor on the formation of groundwater ridging, which is mainly related to the antecedent moisture. It was demonstrated that groundwater ridging also occurs where an unsaturated zone occurs above the capillary fringe with a subsurface lateral flow.     

Numerical Study of Tide-Induced Airflow and Salt–Fresh Water Dynamics in Unconfined Aquifers

This study employed a coupled water-air two-phase flow and salt water transport model to analyze the behaviors of generated airflow in unsaturated zones and the fluctuations of salinity at the salt–fresh water interface in a two-layered unconfined aquifer with a sloping beach surface subjected to tidal oscillations. The simulation results show that as the new dynamic steady state including effects of tidal fluctuations is reached through multiple tidal cycles, the dispersion zone in the lower salt water wedge is broadened because fresh water/salt water therein flows continuously landward or seaward during tidal cycles. The upper salt–fresh water interface exhibits more vulnerable to the tidal fluctuations, and the variation of salinity therein is periodic, which is irrelevant to the hydraulic head but is influenced by the direction and velocity of surrounding water-flow. With the tidal level fluctuating, airflow is mainly concentrated in the lower permeable layer due to the restraint of the upper semi-permeable layer, and the time-lag between the pore-air pressure and the tidal level increases with distance from the coastline. The effect of airflow in unsaturated zones can be transmitted downward, causing both the magnitude of salinity and its amplitude in the upper salt–fresh water interface to be smaller for the case with airflow than without airflow due to the resistance of airflow to water-flow. Sensitivity analysis reveal that distributions of airflow in unsaturated zones are affected by the permeability of the upper/lower layer and the van Genuchten parameter of the lower layer, not by the van Genuchten parameter of the upper layer, whereas the salinity fluctuations in the salt–fresh water interface are affected only by soil parameters of the lower layer.     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

Establishment of a diatom-total phosphorus transfer function for lakes on the Songnen Plain in northeast China

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - To understand the relationship between planktonic diatoms and environmental variables in the lakes on the Songnen Plain, northeast (NE) China, we investigated...     

基于TM影像的哈尔滨市主城区绿地降温作用研究

选取2001年、2005年、2013年和2015年的4期同季TM影像为数据源,利用单窗算法反演哈尔滨市主城区地表温度,以SPOT影像为数据源提取30块城市绿地斑块,将地温空间格局与城市绿地斑块进行空间耦合分析,以揭示绿地对城市热岛地温格局的干扰影响。结果表明：从空间上看,哈尔滨市主城区热岛效应显著,主城区分布着大面积高温区和次高温区,极高温区则呈点状、面状或带状孤岛型分布特点;从动态上看,城市热岛的空间格局呈现从城市中心的老城区逐渐向外围新开发建设区域扩展的特点。绿地斑块内部平均温度除与自身特征有关外,还与其空间布局和周边景观格局相关。绿地斑块降温程度和降温范围与绿地斑块面积呈正相关关系,与绿地斑块形状指数呈负相关关系,绿地降温范围与绿地斑块周长呈正相关关系。当绿地斑块面积为0.055 km²时,绿地斑块对周边温度的降温效率较好,当绿地斑块面积在0.070 km²时,绿地斑块对周边降温的面积效率较好。     

山门银矿床成矿物理化学条件研究

利用山门银矿包裹体的测试数据,在分析研究其成矿热液理化特征的基础上,得出山门银矿床是在浅成低温、低压环境中,由以贫硫、低盐度,酸性大气降水为主的含矿热液,在低还原条件下形成的结论。     

中国省际入境旅游客源市场结构与互动格局——基于2-模网络分析

入境旅游市场的整体格局与特征是制定入境旅游发展战略的重要依据。本文基于2-模网络分析建立了中国省际入境旅游客源国市场隶属网络,采用中心度和奇异值分解法进行分析,从O-D互动视角审视各省(市、区)在全国入境旅游客源市场整体结构中的功能和作用,分析省份—客源国、省(市、区)之间的互动格局。结果表明：①从各省(市、区)来看,入境游客规模优势并未带来相应的客源市场互动结构优势,通过与核心客源市场建立普遍的市场联系,使各省(市、区)的中心度得分较为一致;另一方面,韩、日、美等客源大国则成为隶属网络中的结构核心,成为连接不同省(市、区)的关键角色。②入境旅游客源国市场互动结构中存在3个特定的市场组团,即亚欧+多区域均衡组团、俄罗斯+南北联动组团、欧美+口岸—内地中转组团,这成为遴选市场开拓对象和合作省份的重要依据。本文相关结论可为各省(市、区)优化入境旅游客源国市场营销组合、组织旅游产品等提供借鉴。     

南极菲尔德斯半岛土壤可培养细菌多样性分析

对中国第29次南极科学考察采自南极菲尔德斯半岛区域16个站位的土壤样品进行了细菌的分离培养。经细菌16S r DNA序列测定及系统发育分析,共鉴定得到3个门,13个属的67株细菌。其中优势门为放线菌门(Actinobacteria)和变形菌门(Proteobacteria),优势属为节杆菌属(Arthrobacter)和假单胞菌属(Pseudomonas)。对受到不同外界动物因素影响的4个典型站位的土壤理化性质进行了测定,初步分析了土壤理化因子对可培养细菌群落结构的影响。结果表明在菲尔德斯半岛人活动对土壤中可培养细菌群落的影响显著区别于企鹅和海豹。研究还对产淀粉酶的菌株进行了筛选,发现8株产淀粉酶的菌株。