Seismological monitoring on the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, derived from off Kushiro permanent cabled OBSs and land-based observations

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center installed a cabled geophysical observatory system off Kushiro, Hokkaido Island in July 1999. This observatory system comprises three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), two tsunami gauges, and a geophysical/geochemical monitoring system. 4 years and 2 months after the installation, a megathrust earthquake (the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, 26th September in Japan Standard Time (JST), M_JMA 8.0) occurred along a plate boundary underneath a forearc basin where the system is located. The system recorded clear unsaturated seismograms just at 28.6 km from the epicenter. This paper demonstrates advantages brought by the cabled observatory to record the megathrust earthquake showing how earthquake detectability is improved dramatically combining permanent OBS and land-based observations around the region, and importance of the in situ monitoring on the seismogenic zone. In the present study, processing OBSs and land-based network together, and comparing magnitudes of common observed earthquakes with national authorized network, event detection level improved down to M 1.5, which is much lower than the previously designed as down to M  2. Comparing detection level before and after installing OBSs, we found dramatic improvement of the earthquake detection level in the interesting region. Real-time continuous observations of microearthquakes since 1999 have brought us tremendous findings. First, a seismic quiescence started about 10 days before the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Second, aftershock distribution is not uniform over the focal area and can be divided into several sub-regions, which might indicate an existence of several asperities. We think that the geophysical observations helped to understand the initiation process of the rupture of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake and that observations including seismological, geodynamic, hydrogeological, and the other multidisciplinary observations would provide a clue to future understanding of seismogenic processes at subduction zones.     

The Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode simulated in the CMIP3 models

Using observation data and outputs from the “twentieth-century climate in coupled models” (20c3m) control runs of coupled general circulation models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), the ability of CMIP3 models to simulate the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) and its influence on the rainfall anomaly over the southern African region is investigated. Many models simulate the IOSD, but the location and shape of the sea surface temperature anomaly vary among models. This model bias is closely linked to the bias in simulating the anomalous strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical high. Almost all models fail to simulate the rainfall anomaly associated with the IOSD owing to the inaccurate simulation of the location of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies.     

Stardust in Antarctic micrometeorites

Abstract— We report the discovery of presolar silicate, oxide (hibonite), and (possibly) SiC grains in four Antarctic micrometeorites (AMMs). The oxygen isotopic compositions of the eighteen presolar silicate (and one oxide) grains found are similar those observed previously in primitive meteorites and interplanetary dust particles, and indicate origins in oxygen‐rich red giant or asymptotic giant branch stars, or in supernovae. Four grains with anomalous C isotopic compositions were also detected. ¹²C/¹³C as well as Si ratios are similar to those of mainstream SiC grains; the N isotopic composition of one grain is also consistent with a mainstream SiC classification. Presolar silicate grains were found in three of the seven AMMs studied, and are heterogeneously distributed within these micrometeorites. Fourteen of the 18 presolar silicate grains and 3 of the 4 C‐anomalous grains were found within one AMM, T98G8. Presolar silicate‐bearing micrometeorites contain crystalline silicates that give sharp X‐ray diffractions and do not contain magnesiowüstite, which forms mainly through the decomposition of phyllosilicates and carbonates. The occurrence of this mineral in AMMs without presolar silicates suggests that secondary parent body processes probably determine the presence or absence of presolar silicates in Antarctic micrometeorites.     

Quantifying aggregation and change in runoff source in accordance with catchment area increase in a forested headwater catchment

There has been a great deal of research interest regarding changes in flow path/runoff source with increases in catchment area. However, there have been very few quantitative studies taking subscale variability and convergence of flow path/runoff source into account, especially in relation to headwater catchments. This study was performed to elucidate how the contributions and discharge rates of subsurface water (water in the soil layer) and groundwater (water in fractured bedrock) aggregate and change with catchment area increase, and to elucidate whether the spatial variability of the discharge rate of groundwater determines the spatial variability of stream discharge or groundwater contribution. The study area was a 5‐km² forested headwater catchment in Japan. We measured stream discharge at 113 points and water chemistry at 159 points under base flow conditions. End‐member mixing analysis was used to separate stream water into subsurface water and groundwater. The contributions of both subsurface water and groundwater had large variability below 1 km². The contribution of subsurface water decreased markedly, while that of groundwater increased markedly, with increases in catchment area. The specific discharge of subsurface water showed a large degree of variability and decreased with catchment area below 0.1 km², becoming almost constant above 0.1 km². The specific discharge of groundwater showed large variability below 1 km² and increased with catchment area. These results indicated that the variabilities of stream discharge and groundwater contribution corresponded well with the variability of the discharge rate of groundwater. However, below 0.1 km², it was necessary to consider variations in the discharge rates of both subsurface water and groundwater. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Significance of an amorphous SiO2 phase in a pseudomorph after coesite enclosed in garnet from ultrahigh‐pressure eclogite,Su–Lu Belt,eastern China

Here, we report the first discovery of an amorphous SiO₂ phase (APSI phase) in a pseudomorph after coesite included in garnet from an ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) eclogite from the Su–Lu metamorphic belt, eastern China. Using transmission electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy and selected area electron diffraction, we show that the internal structure of the pseudomorph consists of an APSI phase with nano/submicrocrystalline particles of quartz and a polycrystalline K‐bearing fibrous sheet‐silicate phase (KFSS phase). The APSI phase‐bearing aggregates included in the garnet might have formed by reactions involving a supercritical fluid during exhumation by the following processes: (1) the development of radial cracks within the host garnet by the phase transition of coesite to quartz; (2) the decomposition of a part of the pseudomorph following infiltration of supercritical fluid; (3) the precipitation of the KFSS phase from the fluid phase during subsequent exhumation and cooling, which was likely promoted by a change in the metamorphic fluid from supercritical and/or subcritical to aqueous fluid; and (4) the rapid precipitation of the APSI phase under a metastable (non‐equilibrium) state, such as quenching, during a later stage of the exhumation. Whether the APSI phase generally formed during exhumation and survived widely throughout the Su‐Lu terrane is unknown. However, the presence of the APSI phase in a UHP eclogite provides new insight into the geodynamic phenomena occurring at continental collision zones.     

Bulk mineralogical changes of hydrous micrometeorites during heating in the upper atmosphere at temperatures below 1000 °C

Abstract— Small particles 200 μm in diameter from the hydrous carbonaceous chondrites Orgueil CI, Murchison CM2, and Tagish Lake were experimentally heated for short durations at subsolidus temperatures under controlled ambient pressures in order to examine the bulk mineralogical changes of hydrous micrometeorites during atmospheric entry. The three primitive meteorites consist mainly of various phyllosilicates and carbonates that are subject to decomposition at low temperatures, and thus the brief heating up to 1000 °C drastically changed the mineralogy. Changes included shrinkage of interlayer spacing of saponite due to loss of molecular water at 400–600 °C, serpentine and saponite decomposition to amorphous phases at 600 and 700 °C, respectively, decomposition of Mg‐Fe carbonate at 600 °C, recrystallization of secondary olivine and Fe oxide or metal at 700–800 °C, and recrystallization of secondary low‐Ca pyroxene at 800 °C. The ambient atmospheric pressures controlled species of secondary Fe phase: taenite at pressures lower than 10^?2 torr, magnesiowüstite from 10^?3 to 10^?1 torr, and magnetite from 10^?2 to 1 torr. The abundance of secondary low‐Ca pyroxene increases in the order of Murchison, Orgueil, and Tagish Lake, and the order corresponds to saponite abundance in samples prior to heating. Mineralogy of the three unmelted micrometeorites F96CI024, kw740052, and kw740054 were investigated in detail in order to estimate heating conditions. The results showed that they might have come from different parental objects, carbonaterich Tagish Lake type, carbonate‐poor Tagish Lake or CI type, and CM type, respectively, and experienced different peak temperatures, 600, 700, and 800?900 °C, respectively, at 60–80 km altitude upon atmospheric entry.     

Locally and remotely forced atmospheric circulation anomalies of Ningaloo Niño/Niña

A recently identified climate mode called Ningaloo Niño (Niña) is associated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies off the west coast of Australia and negative (positive) sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the overlying atmosphere. By conducting a series of numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, generation mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation anomalies accompanied by Ningaloo Niño/Niña are examined. Even when SST is allowed to vary interannually only in the eastern South Indian Ocean, negative (positive) SLP anomalies are formed off the west coast of Australia in Ningaloo Niño (Niña) years, supporting the existence of local ocean–atmosphere interaction. When the model is forced by SST anomalies outside of the eastern South Indian Ocean, negative (positive) SLP anomalies are also generated in Ningaloo Niño (Niña) years owing to a Matsuno–Gill type response to atmospheric convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific. It is found that the latter impact is stronger in the current atmospheric general circulation model. Regarding climatic impacts, it is shown that Ningaloo Niño (Niña) induces wet (dry) anomalies over the northwestern part of Australia even when SST anomalies outside of the eastern South Indian Ocean are excluded from the SST forcing.     

Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes is assessed using the SINTEX-F coupled model. Despite the known difficulty in predicting subtropical climate due to large internal variability of the atmosphere and weak ocean–atmosphere coupling, it is shown for the first time that the coupled model can successfully predict the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD) 1 season ahead, and the prediction skill is better than the persistence in all the 1–12 month lead hindcast experiments. There is a prediction barrier in austral winter due to the seasonal phase locking of the SASD to austral summer. The prediction skill is lower for the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD) than for the SASD, and only slightly better than the persistence till 6-month lead because of the low predictability of the sea surface temperature anomaly in its southwestern pole. However, for some strong IOSD events in the last three decades, the model can predict them 1 season ahead. The co-occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD in 1997/1998 austral summer can be predicted from July 1st of 1997. This is because the negative sea level pressure anomalies over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean in September–October (November–December) that trigger the occurrence of the negative SASD and IOSD are related to the well predicted tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). Owing to the overall good performances of the SINTEX-F model in predicting the SASD, some strong IOSD, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the prediction skill of the southern African summer precipitation is high in the SINTEX-F model.     

Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysis

Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.      

Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.