The resin sealed column (RESECO) setup for flow-through experiments on solid rocks under high temperature and high pore pressure conditions

Hydrogeology Journal - High-pressure flow-through experiments on solid rock samples are commonly conducted with experimental setups using a confining pressure to restrict the flow to the rock....     

Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

Seismic ground motion relationship in southern China based on stochastic finite-fault model

The characteristics of seismic ground motions in southern China are difficult to determine statistically due to a lack of strong ground motion data. In this study, a stochastic finite-fault ground motion model was adopted to simulate the seismic ground motions at bedrock for southern China, based on parameters derived from small and medium earthquakes that have occurred in the region. From these, the response spectra was estimated. A set of ground motion attenuation relations hipswas then developed based on simulated peak ground motions and response spectral parameters through regression, which would be applicable for use in engineering practice. Through comparisons, it was demonstrated that the proposed ground motion relationships are generally consistent with those obtained from other reported ground motion attenuation models for southern China.     

Monitoring directions and rates of change in trees outside forests through multitemporal analysis of map sequences

This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.     

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

On the habitability of the OGLE-2006-BLG-109L planetary system

We investigate the dynamics of putative Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of the extrasolar planetary system OGLE-2006-BLG-109L, a close analogue of the Solar system. Our work is inspired by the work of Malhotra & Minton. Using the linear Laplace–Lagrange theory, they identified a strong secular resonance that may excite large eccentricity of orbits in the HZ. However, due to uncertain or unconstrained orbital parameters, the subsystem of Jupiters may be found in a dynamically active region of the phase space spanned by low-order mean-motion resonances. To generalize this secular model, we construct a semi-analytical averaging method in terms of the restricted problem. The secular orbits of large planets are approximated by numerically averaged osculating elements. They are used to calculate the mean orbits of terrestrial planets by means of a high-order analytic secular theory developed in our previous works. We found regions in the parameter space of the problem in which stable, quasi-circular orbits in the HZ are permitted. The excitation of eccentricity in the HZ strongly depends on the apsidal angle of jovian orbits. For some combinations of that angle, eccentricities and semimajor axes consistent with the observations, a terrestrial planet may survive in low eccentric orbits. We also study the effect of post-Newtonian gravity correction on the innermost secular resonance.     

Modelling of sediment supply from torrent catchments in the Western Alps using the sediment contributing area (SCA) approach

The production of coarse sediment in mountain landscapes depends mainly on the type and activity of geomorphic processes and topographic and natural conditions (e.g. vegetation cover) of these catchments. The supply of sediment from these slopes to mountain streams and its subsequent transport lead to sediment connectivity, which describes the integrated coupled state of these systems. Studies from the Northern Calcareous Alps show that the size of the sediment contributing area (SCA), a subset of the drainage area that effectively delivers sediment to the channel network, can be used as a predictor of sediment delivery to mountain streams. The SCA concept is delineated on a digital elevation model (DEM) using a set of rules related to the steepness and length of slopes directly adjacent to the channel network, the gradient of the latter and the vegetation cover. The present study investigates the applicability of this concept to the Western Alps to identify geomorphologically active areas and to estimate mean annual sediment yield (SY) in mainly debris-flow-prone catchments. We use a statistical approach that shows a parameter optimisation and a linear regression of SY on SCA extent. We use a dataset of ~25 years of assessed coarse sediment accumulation in 35 sediment retention basins. In the investigated catchments, sediment transport is governed by several factors, mainly by the extent of vegetation-free areas with a minimum slope of 23° that is coupled to the channel network with a very low gradient of the latter. With our improved framework, we can show that the SCA approach can be applied to catchments that are widely distributed, in a large spatial scale (hectare area) and very heterogeneous in their properties. In general, the investigated catchments show high connectivity, resulting in significant correlations between long-term average yield and the size of the SCA.