Single-station narrowband ranging of active storm cells without lightning-type discrimination

We present a statistical technique for ranging the edges of active storms cell using a very simple narrowband receiver tuned to 1 MHz (the MW band in radio, just below HF frequencies). We show that a principle based on the “30–30 rule” can be used to define practical warning levels. From the measurements carried out in Finland, we show that the narrowband source intensities of cloud-to-ground lightning vary log-normally; this results in a ranging uncertainty of about 20%, which can be reduced if a suitable floating average is used. Based on one storm, we suggest that the differences between intra-cloud and ground-to-cloud signals at 1 MHz are small enough to make an IC–CG discrimination. Eliminating such a discrimination allows all lightning impulses to be used in the range and improves the accuracy, since more flashes are then available as inputs into the distance-estimation algorithm. Although the system is only validated against a single storm, we provide definitions by which this and other narrowband detectors could be independently verified; existing narrowband devices have not been verified in this manner, due in part to a lack of such standardized definitions.     

Resistance to the deinstitutionalization of a region: Borders,identity and activism in a municipality merger

Regions are contested processes in which various layers of borders become articulated, deconstructed and reconstructed by both activists and advocates. While many scholars currently tend to highlight the relational character of spaces, this study – acknowledging that seeing regions as relational or territorial is a highly contextual matter – emphasizes the territorial approach by stressing the multiple layers of borders and how they help to constitute and nurture regional identity. Focusing on deinstitutionalization of a region, it is argued here that regional restructuring can trigger activism, as proved by the activist movement at issue in the case study. This case study of a merger between two municipalities in Finland illustrates that when threatened with integration, (old) regions seem to be of especial importance as bordered territories of identification.     

A three-parameter magnitude phase function for asteroids

We develop a three-parameter H, G₁, G₂ magnitude phase function for asteroids starting from the current two-parameter H, G phase function. We describe stochastic optimization of the basis functions of the magnitude phase function based on a carefully chosen set of asteroid photometric observations covering the principal types of phase dependencies. We then illustrate the magnitude phase function with a chosen set of observations. It is shown that the H, G₁, G₂ phase function systematically improves fits to the existing data and considerably so, warranting the utilization of three parameters instead of two. With the help of the linear three-parameter phase function, we derive a nonlinear two-parameter H, G₁₂ phase function, and demonstrate its applicability in predicting phase dependencies based on small numbers of observations.     

Paleolimnological assessment of ecological integrity and eutrophication history for Lake Tiiläänjärvi (Askola,Finland)

In this study, we aim to reconstruct long-term limnoecological development of the clay-turbid Lake Tiiläänjärvi in Askola, southern Finland, using fossil Chironomidae assemblages. The study lake suffers from hypereutrophic conditions and late-winter and end-of-summer anoxia. The retrieved sediment record revealed a succession from oligo-mesotrophic (~AD 1940–2000) to eutrophic community (~AD 2000–2010) that finally reached hypereutrophic climax community in the most recent sediments. The initial state of the record was characterized by stable ecological conditions, but the biological integrity (community and functional diversity) was completely lost in the upper part of the sediment profile. The number of taxa markedly decreased following the nutrient enrichment and only one taxon (Chironomus plumosus-type), tolerant of temporary anoxia, remained in the surface sample. During the period of available observational data (since AD 1978), variance in midge community composition was mostly explained by limnological factors, namely total phosphorus (TP), whereas the influence of climate was statistically insignificant, thus enabling quantitative midge-based reconstruction of autumnal epilimnetic TP. The midge-based reconstruction showed an identical trend compared to sediment characteristics, which correspond to increased lake productivity and anthropogenic activities in the catchment. The inferred values for the initial state indicated mesotrophic conditions, which are typical for non-disturbed clay-turbid lakes in southern Finland, and a subsequent increase to eutrophic conditions, with hypereutrophic state reached at the top of the core. This development corresponds with the instrumentally monitored development. In addition, when the reconstruction was compared with the instrumental values, the inferences were mostly (75 % of the samples) within the error estimates of the model. The present results provide invaluable information on the limnoecological development of Lake Tiiläänjärvi, and more generally, support the theory that fossil remains of chironomids provide a useful tool for assessments of eutrophication history and biological integrity.     

Role of Convective Structures and Background Turbulence in the Dry Convective Boundary Layer

We quantify the role of the convective buoyant structures and the remainder turbulence, here called background turbulence, in the convective atmospheric boundary layer in horizontally homogeneous, dry and barotropic conditions. Three filtering methods to separate the structures and the background turbulence are first evaluated. These are: short-time averaging, Fourier filtering and proper orthogonal decomposition. The Fourier method turns out to be the most appropriate for the present purpose. The decomposition is applied to two cases: one with no mean flow and another with moderate mean wind speed. It is shown that roughly 85 % of the vertical flux of the potential temperature and about 72 % of the kinetic energy is carried by the structures in the mixed layer in both cases. The corresponding percentage for the potential temperature variance is 81 % in the zero mean-wind case and 76 % in the moderate mean-wind case. The structures are responsible for as much as 94 % of the momentum flux in the mixed layer of the moderate mean-wind case. In the surface layer the background turbulence is generally more important than the structure contribution in both cases. The budget of the potential temperature flux is analyzed in detail and it is shown that its turbulent transport term is mostly built up by the structures but also the interaction between the structures and the background turbulence plays a significant role. The other important budget terms are shown to be dominated by the structures except for the pressure–temperature gradient covariance.     

Climate change impacts on forest fire potential in boreal conditions in Finland

The aim of this work was to study the forest fire potential and frequency of forest fires under the projected climate change in Finland (N 60°–N 70°). Forest fire index, generally utilized in Finland, was used as an indicator for forest fire potential due to climatological parameters. Climatic scenarios were based on the A2 emission scenario. According to the results, the forest fire potential will have increased by the end of this century; as a result of increased evaporative demand, which will increase more than the rise in precipitation and especially in southern Finland. The annual number of forest fire alarm days is expected to increase in southern Finland to 96–160 days by the end of this century, compared to the current 60–100 days. In the north, the corresponding increase was from 30 to 36 days. The expected increase in the annual frequency of forest fires over the whole country was about 20% by the end of this century compared to the present day. The greatest increase in the frequency of fires, per 1,000 km², was in the southernmost part of the country, with six to nine fires expected annually per 1,000 km² at the end of this century, meaning a 24–29% increase compared to the present day frequencies.     

Recordings and occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents in the Finnish natural gas pipeline network

A project implemented to study the effects of space weather on the Finnish natural gas pipeline was started in August 1998. The aims of the project were (1) to derive a model for calculating geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and pipe-to-soil (P/S) voltages in the Finnish natural gas pipeline, (2) to perform measurements of GIC and P/S voltages in the pipeline and (3) to derive statistical predictions for the occurrences of GIC and P/S voltages at different locations in the pipeline network.GIC and P/S voltage were recorded at a compressor station. The GIC measurement was made with two magnetometers, one right above the pipe, and another at the Nurmijärvi Geophysical Observatory about 30 km southwest. The largest GIC since November 1998 has been 30 A. The P/S voltage recording was stopped in May 1999, but GIC is still measured.GIC statistics were derived based on the recordings of the geomagnetic field at Nurmijärvi. The geoelectric field was calculated by using the plane wave model. This field was input to the general pipeline model resulting in the distribution of currents and P/S voltages at selected points in the pipeline. As could be expected, the largest P/S voltage variations occur at the ends of the pipeline network, while the largest GIC flow in the middle parts.     

Bayesian logistic regression for presence-only data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which a censoring mechanism acts on a binary response which can be partially observed only with respect to one outcome, usually denoting the presence of an attribute of interest. A typical example is the recording of species presence in ecological surveys. In this work a Bayesian approach to the analysis of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme is presented. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to censoring and the other one due to sampling. In the paper, through the use of a stratified sampling design with non-overlapping strata, a new formulation of the logistic model for presence-only data is proposed. In particular, the logistic regression with linear predictor is considered. Estimation is carried out with a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation, which does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. The performance of the new algorithm is validated by means of extensive simulation experiments using three scenarios and comparison with optimal benchmarks. An application to data existing in literature is reported in order to discuss the model behaviour in real world situations together with the results of an original study on termites occurrences data.     

Modelling effects of spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity on autocorrelated overland flow data: linear mixed model approach

The mixed linear model approach was introduced and applied in studying the effects of spatial variation of the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s ) on the variation of the overland flow. Analysis was carried out with 2,000 rainfall-runoff events, all generated through transformation of real, observed rainfall events and different spatially variable K _s fields in a small (12 ha) agricultural catchment. The parameters accounting for the variation in the generation method were the coefficient of variation (cv) and correlation length (L _x L _y ) of K _s both having two levels of values obtained from field measurements of other studies. The analysis showed that the combinations with both parameters having the smaller or bigger value during flow peaks only caused different response in the overland flow. However, the parameters were statistically significant only at the 10% level. Most of the flow variation was explained by the event dynamics. The mixed models were able to model the structure of the data efficiently with less restrictive assumptions than for example the analysis of variance, hence producing more reliable results. The method was able to take into account autocorrelation of the test series, correlation between the factors and unequal variances. The usefulness of the method was supported by the fact that the conclusions drawn by it were confirmed by simple, conventional methods of a previous study, added with statistical criteria and confidence levels for each calculation moment. The findings of the study can be utilized in practise for example when designing the field sampling experiments.