Asteroid identification at discovery

We present a novel method for the search of linkages among astrometric observations of asteroids, that is, tentative identifications among asteroids observed. Having two different master sets of asteroid observations each containing a number of separate subsets, we define a linkage as a pair of subsets residing in separate master sets that can be tied together with an orbit for given observational errors. To find linkages among a wealth of observations we use an efficient stepwise filtering approach. First, we start with what we call phase-space address comparison. The first step substantially reduces the initially huge amount of pairs by requiring that pairs to be subjected to further analysis have similar geocentric spherical coordinates at common epochs (for example, at three epochs). Second, we search for orbits for each of the selected pairs of subsets. Succeeding in the effort proves that a linkage exists. If there are contradictions among linkages found—for example, a single subset being linked to several mutually exclusive subsets—additional new or archive observations are usually needed to discard erroneous linkages. The new method is built on six-dimensional statistical orbital inversion (Ranging), and is therefore particularly suitable for analyzing objects with the shortest observational arcs, that is, newly discovered asteroids (and comets). Results from extensive and successful tests on simulated survey observations are presented and discussed. Theoretical and empirical scaling results show that the method is applicable to future large-scale surveys that will increase the rate of asteroid discovery by at least two orders of magnitude. The successful linking of faint single-night observation sets obtained with the Very Large Telescope are briefly reviewed.     

Asynchronous responses of East Asian and Indian summer monsoons to mountain uplift shown by regional climate modelling experiments

It has been demonstrated in climate models that both the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons (ISM and EASM) are strengthened by the uplift of the entire Asian orography or Tibetan Plateau (TP) (i.e. bulk mountain uplift). Such an effect is widely perceived as the major mechanism contributing to the evolution of Asian summer monsoons in the Neogene. However, geological evidence suggests more diachronous growth of the Asian orography (i.e. regional mountain uplift) than bulk mountain uplift. This demands a re-evaluation of the relation between mountain uplift and the Asian monsoon in the geological periods. In this study, sensitivity experiments considering the diachronous growth of different parts of the Asian orography are performed using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM to investigate their effects on the Asian summer monsoons. The results show that, different from the bulk mountain uplift, the regional mountain uplift can lead to an asynchronous development of the ISM and EASM. While the ISM is primarily intensified by the thermal insulation (mechanical blocking) effect of the southern TP (Zagros Mountains), the EASM is mainly enhanced by the surface sensible heating of the central, northern and eastern TP. Such elevated surface heating can induce a low-level cyclonic anomaly around the TP that reduces the ISM by suppressing the lower tropospheric monsoon vorticity, but promotes the EASM by strengthening the warm advection from the south of the TP that sustains the monsoon convection. Our findings provide new insights to the evolution of the Asian summer monsoons and their interaction with the tectonic changes in the Neogene.     

Vikings and virtues: a decade of CO2 taxation

Abstract

Experience with implementation of CO² taxes spans almost a decade in the Nordic countries, and time is ripe for an evaluation of their performance. In contrast to ex-ante forecasts, empirical research can show the extent to which such taxes deliver on the assumptions of economic theory. A survey of the existing literature shows that there are currently 20 ex-post studies of the full or partial effects of CO² taxes. Evaluations are complicated by frequent changes in tax rates, widespread exemptions and the ‘too many variables’ problem. Attempts have been made to deal with these problems by using a variety of approaches and research techniques, some more advanced than others. On balance the studies appear to show that emissions have been curbed when compared to businessas-usual forecasts, while absolute CO² reduction remains the exception. Among the Nordic countries, Denmark's scheme, which combines taxes with subsidies for energy efficiency, seems to have attained the most marked results, although the achieved reductions also reflect the higher carbon content of the Danish energy sector. The evaluations differ considerably in scope, approach and methodology. Methodological issues connected with expost evaluation are considered. An adequate evaluation of the impact of the CO² taxes, in both environmental and economic terms, will require the establishment of comprehensive panel databases of energy consumers.     

Time to market in the CDM: variation over project characteristics and time

Not only is the carbon market inundated with Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) issued by successful projects, it is also littered with failed projects, that is, projects that either fail to be registered under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or projects that have been successfully registered but fail to issue CERs. By relying on a novel application of survival analysis in the context of the CDM, this article shows that half of all projects that start the Global Stakeholder Process fail to issue CERs, while the other half have a median time to market of four years. Furthermore, it is shown that some of the best projects, in terms of being additional, are those that are least likely to make it to market, whereas some of the worst projects, in terms of not being additional, are the ones that are most likely to make it to market. This presents a fundamental challenge for the CDM and future offset schemes that rely on the same design as the CDM. In contrast with previous studies, it is shown that, when project characteristics are controlled for, not all durations measured along the CDM project cycle have increased over time.

Policy relevance

This article develops a novel method for analysing durations measured along the CDM project cycle that avoids the biases of previous studies, and corrects for some misconceptions of what the delays faced by CDM projects are and how these delays have changed over time. Developing an understanding of the delays is important in order not to draw the wrong lessons from the CDM experience. As the leading example of an offset scheme, both in terms of geographical scope and sectoral coverage, and some would say institutional complexity, the CDM serves as a benchmark and reference for all future offset schemes, among others, for the New Market Mechanisms (NMMs) and the Chinese domestic offset programme. While the NMMs are still very much in development, China has announced that it will rely on the methodologies and procedures developed under the CDM for generating offsets for their regional carbon trading schemes.     

Geostatistical approach for the assessment of the water reservoir capacity in arid regions: a case study of the Akdarya reservoir,Uzbekistan

The paper presents the results of a new geostatistical approach to generate bathymetric surface models from point measurement converted into continuous contour surfaces of reservoir bottoms in Uzbekistan. Sedimentation of reservoirs raises engineering, environmental and economical issues for the communities around the world in areas affected by a strong water deficit. Because of Uzbekistan’s arid climatic conditions, and uneven spatial and temporal water resources distribution, responsive and innovative water availability assessment surveys of all major water reservoirs are required. Bathymetric surveying is a traditional method that is carried out for the estimation of reservoir volumes and surface areas of the corresponding reservoir stages in order to assess the water availability. Volume and surface area differences derived from multiple surveys of a reservoir provide storage loss estimates over time due to sedimentation. However, two main factors, such as intensive field data measurement and post data-processing, often limit the frequency of these surveys. Alternatively, innovative depth measurement technologies coupled with contouring and surface mapping programs provide automated reservoir volume and surface area calculations. This significantly reduces time, workload and financial burdens for reservoir sedimentation projects. This research proposes the use of geostatistical approach to assess the reservoir sedimentation in the Akdarya reservoir of Uzbekistan. The geostatistical approach includes (semi-) variogram analysis and interpolation (kriging and simulations—turning bands) techniques predicting values at unsampled locations for generating digital bathymetric surface models of reservoir bottom conditions in order to calculate the volume and surface area at a given water elevation. The simulation enables to have range of reservoir volumes and surface areas with the same probability, in comparison to the kriging and traditional methods. This gives a real estimation of the resource availability for water operators to manage natural resources and hydraulic infrastructure in a sustainable manner.     

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models. A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but they do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources being considered as a basis for the continued well-being of the society and the mankind, resource management should be treated as an important factor in future social planning.     

Environmental policies and marine engines—effects on the development and adoption of innovations

This study indicates that environmental policy interventions significantly influence the innovation processes for reducing the emissions of marine engine technology. Several different types of interventions have been important and the effect is not directly proportional to the strength or spatial coverage of the intervention. Despite its relative weakness, the MARPOL rule on NO_x emissions has contributed to technology development. We also show that the rise of environmental issues in other fields has had a marked effect on the development of the marine sector and that relatively local interventions can influence innovation even in an international sector like marine transport.     

The Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS critical zone observatory M-TROPICS dataset I: The Nyong River Basin,Cameroon

Simultaneously acquiring time series of climate, hydrology and hydrochemical data over decades on river systems is pivotal to understand the complex interactions involving rock, soil water, air and biota in the Critical Zone, to build integrated modelling and to propose predictive scenarios. Among the Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) implemented in the past 25 years, only a few are located in the humid Tropics despite the importance of these regions in terms of population density, fast-changing land use, biodiversity hotspots, biomass stock on continents, size of river systems, etc. Since 1994, weathering and erosion processes and fluxes have been investigated at both local (experimental watershed) and regional scales in the Nyong River Basin (Cameroon) which belongs to the Critical Zone Observatories network named Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS (M-TROPICS). The data shared by M-TROPICS in Cameroon are: (1) rainfall; (2) air temperature, air relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and global radiation; (3) stream and river water level; (4) pH, electrical conductivity, water temperature and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration; (5) major ion, alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. The dataset already contributed to describe the water partitioning in these tropical humid watersheds, to better understand the factors controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion in tropical ecosystems, particularly the role of organic matter. The dataset also contributed to calculate elemental weathering fluxes and saprolite production rate and to propose denudation rates on tropical cratonic landscapes. Hydrological modelling allowed quantification of the geographical water sources contributing to streamflow. DOC data were used to determine greenhouse-gas emissions and carbon budgets from African inland waters. However, long-term solute concentrations at the outlet of a small tributary of the Nyong River exhibit non-stationary behaviour over the last 26 years. The processes governing those fluctuations are not yet fully understood and might be related to changes in the hydrological regime, land-cover and land-use. The latter highlights the need for longer time-series and continued support for CZOs particularly in the humid tropics.     

Additive toxicity of herbicide mixtures and comparative sensitivity of tropical benthic microalgae

Natural waters often contain complex mixtures of unknown contaminants potentially posing a threat to marine communities through chemical interactions. Here, acute effects of the photosystem II-inhibiting herbicides diuron, tebuthiuron, atrazine, simazine, and hexazinone, herbicide breakdown products (desethyl-atrazine (DEA) and 3,4-dichloroaniline (3,4-DCA)) and binary mixtures, were investigated using three tropical benthic microalgae; Navicula sp. and Cylindrotheca closterium (Ochrophyta) and Nephroselmis pyriformis (Chlorophyta), and one standard test species, Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Ochrophyta), in a high-throughput Maxi-Imaging-PAM bioassay (Maxi-IPAM). The order of toxicity was; diuron > hexazinone > tebuthiuron > atrazine > simazine > DEA > 3,4-DCA for all species. The tropical green alga N. pyriformis was up to 10-fold more sensitive than the diatoms tested here and reported for coral symbionts, and is recommended as a standard tropical test species for future research. All binary mixtures exhibited additive toxicity, and the use of herbicide equivalents (HEq) is therefore recommended in order to incorporate total-maximum-load measures for environmental regulatory purposes.     

Endemic avifaunal biodiversity and tropical forest loss in Makira, a mountainous Pacific island

Anthropogenic habitat changes and the introduction of pigs, dogs, cats and rats have caused a catastrophic decline in the terrestrial biodiversity of Pacific archipelagos. At present, economic globalization and an increased demand for timber are promoting industrial logging and plantation expansion. Commercial logging can be sustainable but in practice it more often leads to land degradation, especially on small flat islands. On large and mountainous islands, however, more modest impacts can be expected as the narrowly endemic species tend to inhabit montane forests where logging is difficult. In this study we use ornithological data collected at different elevations to assess the extent to which the avifauna of Makira, a large mountainous island in Melanesia, will be affected by deforestation of the lowlands, most of which are under timber concessions. Our data suggest that a majority of the endemic bird species use lowland forest to some extent and that this may even apply to species hitherto associated with montane forest. If current commercial forestry programmes are continued, the forest habitat may be disturbed or lost over large parts of Makira, potentially undermining the natural resource base for the local subsistence economy, exacerbating climate change and threatening the integrity of one of the most important areas for biodiversity conservation on earth. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the habitat requirements of endemic species and the urgency of establishing and effectively managing community-based protected areas in suitable lowland forests of the Pacific.