Controlling Factors,Accumulation Model and Target Zone Prediction of the Coal‐bed Methane in the Huanghebei Coalfield,North China

The Huanghebei Coalfield, one of the coal production bases in North China, was considered as a coalfield without coal‐bed methane (CBM) during past decades. In recent years, however, CBM has been discovered in coal‐bearing successions. In order to understand the CBM geological characteristics and accumulation process in this area, fifteen coal samples were collected and analyzed with respect to coal maceral and reflectance. The result shows that the gas distribution is uneven and the content varies in different areas even for the same coal bed. The storage of CBM is affected by geological factors such as burial depth, geological structures, and magmatic intrusion, among which the former two are more important in the formation of CBM. Deep burial of coal beds with the presence of cap‐rock mudstone can seal CBM. The CBM is also accumulated and preserved at the place where normal faults are distributed. Magmatic intrusion causes contact metamorphism and controls the CBM formation by heating the coal‐bearing successions. The obtained data indicate the geological conditions in northeastern Zhaoguan Mine are preferable for CBM formation and conservation; recent exploration estimates the CBM geological reserves up to 282.16 Mm³ and average of reserve abundance at 0.1662 × 10⁸ m³ km^?2. The Changqing Mine is a potential prospect in terms of CBM exploration since its geological conditions (structures and burial depth) are similar to the Zhaoguan Mine and its cap rock is even better.     

Epidemiological study on the relationship between the environmental pollution and lung cancer in high lung cancer incidence areas,China

Xuanwei and Fuyuan, two counties located in southwest China, are areas with exceptionally high lung cancer incidence since the 1970s. In this study, questionnaires from a total of 18 communes, and 28 administrative villages (consisting of 280 small villages) in the two counties were fulfilled and collected. The sampling sites were randomly chosen in consideration of the incidence rate of lung cancer and the types of coal used. The sampling sites were divided into high lung cancer occurrence areas and low lung cancer occurrence areas. Industrial and environmental information was investigated and finally analyzed for the possible relationship to the lung cancer. It indicated that 78.1 % of the villages in high lung cancer incidence areas had been found using smoky coal or coking coals in people’s everyday lives; 43.4 % of these villages located near the coking factories, 31.1 % near the iron-zinc smelters and 11.8 % near the chemical industries. In the low lung cancer incidence areas, 78.8 % of the villages had been found using non-smoky coals (anthracite) in people’s everyday lives; 26.9 % of these villages are near the coking factories, 23.1 % near the iron-zinc smelters and 5.8 % near the chemical industries. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the coal type used was a foremost risk factor related to incidence of lung cancer [β > 0, Exp (β) >1, P < 0.05]. The use of smoky coals and coking coals seemed to be a hazardous factor for lung cancer generation, while non-smoky coals seemed to have no significant relationship to the lung cancer incidence. The results in this study added basic and important data and should be helpful for the future study on the etiology of lung cancer.     

Economic benefit assessment of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering system in the Three Gorges Reservoir area: a case study of the landslide in Zigui

The completion and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have increased the frequency of geo-hazards and dangers in the area. To monitor and to warn of geo-hazards effectively, the Chinese government has invested billions of funds for constructing a monitoring and warning engineering system. Similar to other social infrastructure investments, a reasonable assessment of investment returns is necessary. Therefore, this study proposes an economic benefit assessment model, which considers both the expected and the actual values. The economic benefit of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering in the Three Gorges Reservoir areas is evaluated. Based on the engineering characteristics, the model reasonably defines the frontier of the input and output and adds the casualties and the losses of ecological environment into the economic benefit evaluation index system. A case study on the Zhangjiawan landslide in Guojiaba Town, Zigui County, was conducted. The evaluation results show that (1) land has the largest benefit in direct reductional loss (total of 56.7 %), while the largest indirect reductional losses of the hazard-bearing bodies are in agricultural production and ecological environment (total of 97.6 %); (2) the costs-to-expected return ratio of landslide monitoring and warning engineering is 1:280, whereas the cost-to-actual benefit ratio is 1:30; (3) the accumulation of relevant information and the public knowledge of geological disasters should be strengthened.

     

全球超大城市空间扩张及分形特征研究

超大城市是全球经济、文化以及高科技产业发展的承载体和重要纽带,其形态结构特征和人口聚集效应是城市化影响的典型表现,然而当前对于全球超大城市形态特征及扩张模式的研究相对不足。基于2000—2020年全球城市土地利用/覆盖变化数据（GULUC-30）,利用城市扩张强度差异指数分析了超大城市用地的时空变化规律;而后运用面积—半径标度分析模型研究了超大城市的分形特征及扩张模式,最后基于城市用地面积和城市人口之间的线性关系评价城市用地效率。结果发现：① 2000—2020年东南亚和东亚的中国超大城市用地扩张最剧烈,城市用地面积分别扩张了3148.32 km²和5996.26 km²,城市扩张强度差异指数平均值大于3;② 2000—2020年超大城市的形态特征和扩张模式向着更加集约和紧凑的方向发展,径向维数平均值由1.54增加至1.56,分维差呈逐年减少趋势,城市内部结构一体化特征显著;③ 北美和欧洲的超大城市用地效率低,2020年城市用地面积与城市人口比值系数范围为0.89~4.11;南亚和非洲城市用地效率高,比值范围为0.23~0.87。超大城市空间扩张格局和形态变化的认识对于城市用地的集约利用和可持续发展具有重要参考价值。严格控制超大城市扩张规模,促进城市用地的均衡发展是建设韧性城市和实现城市地区可持续发展的必要条件。     

双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2（2010—2018年）超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造统一的要素自由流动市场,通过“扩内需、调结构、深化对外开放”扩大市场需求,促进城市发展,培育与发展主导产业及其配套产业,抓住机遇“走出去”和建设高质量的服务型政府6个维度对其城镇化高质量发展的实现路径展开具体对策与建议的思考。     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）的毛乌素沙地1981—2020年干旱特征研究

大气干旱是影响半干旱沙区植被建设、生态恢复及社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。基于1981—2020年毛乌素沙地10个气象站点的逐月气象资料,计算了月、季和年尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,分析了该沙区近40年降水和气温的变化趋势、干旱事件及其频率的时空特征。结果表明：（1）毛乌素沙地近40年降水量和气温均呈现显著的上升趋势（P<0.05）;秋季和冬季降水量呈现显著的上升趋势（P<0.05）,四季气温均呈现显著的上升趋势（P<0.05）。（2）毛乌素沙地总体上呈现出不显著的湿润化趋势（P>0.05）,但秋季呈显著的湿润化趋势（P<0.05）;中、西部地区呈现出湿润化趋势,而东部地区则呈现干旱化趋势。（3）近40年毛乌素沙地的月尺度下干旱总频率达32.71%,各等级发生频率为轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱,季节发生频次为冬季>夏季、秋季>春季;轻旱主要发生在毛乌素沙地的北部、中部、东南和西南部,中旱在东部、北部和西部边缘,重旱在东部、中部以及南部地区,特旱在西北部、南部和东南部区域。     

近51a漳州市极端最低气温变化特征分析

利用福建省漳州市10个气象站1962—2012年1、2、12月逐日最低气温资料,分析漳州极端最低气温变化特征。结果表明:①漳州多年冬季平均极端最低气温以0.397℃/10 a线性倾向率增加。②各年代际气候倾向率差异明显,20世纪80年代年极端最低气温增加最快(气候倾向率2.715℃/10 a),21世纪以来气候倾向率最小(0.006℃/10 a),20世纪70年代内极端最低气温变化相对稳定(变异系数为0.85),20世纪90年代气温变化剧烈(变异系数为1.72)。③极端最低气温(5℃)日数以-1.6℃/10 a的气候倾向率减少,多年低温日数平均值为7.5 d。④漳州市区、郊区极端最低气温显著增加,漳州市区极端最低气温以0.546℃/10 a气候倾向率增加,郊区以0.381℃/10 a气候倾向率增加。⑤漳州市区与郊区极端最低气温(5℃)日数平均差值5 d,市区低温日数以-2.427 d/10 a的气候倾向率减小,郊区低温日数以-1.509 d/10 a的气候倾向率减少。     

Simulated impacts of irrigation on evapotranspiration in a strongly exploited region: a case study of the Haihe River basin,China

Irrigation is the major water supply for crop production in water‐limited regions. However, this important water component is usually neglected or simplified in hydrological modelling primarily because information concerning irrigation is notably difficult to collect. To assess real effects of irrigation on the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) in water‐limited region, the Community Land Model version 4 was established over a typical semi‐humid agricultural basin in the northern China – the Haihe River basin. In the irrigated cropland, incorporating an irrigation scheme can enhance the simulated ET and improve the simulation of spatial variability of soil moisture content. We found that different configurations in the irrigation scheme do not cause significant differences in the simulated annual ET. However, simulated ET with simulated irrigation differs clearly from that with observed irrigation in mean annual magnitude, long‐term trend and spatial distribution. Once the irrigation scheme is well‐calibrated against observations, it reasonably reproduces the interannual variability of annual irrigation, when irrigation water management is relatively stable. More importantly, parameter calibration should be consistent with the configuration of the source of irrigation water. However, an irrigation scheme with a constant parameter value cannot capture the trend in the annual irrigation amount caused by abrupt changes in agricultural water management. Compared with different remotely sensed ET products, the enhancement in the simulated ET by irrigation is smaller than the differences among these products, and the trend in simulated ET with the observed irrigation cannot be captured correctly by the remotely sensed ET. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山东省矿产资源开发利用现状与保护对策探讨

山东是矿业大省，矿产资源的开发程度较高，但也存在着不容忽视的问题。针对产生这些问题的原因，提出了实现矿产资源可持续开发利用的六项建议，强调应从增强矿产资源的忧患意识、保护生态环境、加强矿产勘查、强化政府管理职能及依靠科技进步等方面加大工作力度。