Planetary Embryos Never Formed in the Kuiper Belt

We study the orbital evolutions of various systems of planetary embryos in the transneptunian region, undergoing mutual scattering and perturbations from the giant planets. We show that about 15-20% of the original embryos should survive in the transneptunian region at the current epoch. The orbital dispersion of the surviving embryos depends on their individual mass, so that only lunar mass embryos could survive with semimajor axis smaller than 50 AU. In all cases, we show by a Monte Carlo model that at least one of the surviving embryos should have already been discovered by one of the most effective Kuiper-belt surveys. This implies that planetary embryos did not form in the transneptunian region (or have been removed by some external and unknown mechanism). Therefore, we conclude that the Kuiper belt was not excited by resident planetary embryos, unlike the asteroid belt. We also compute with the Monte Carlo model that a significant number (order 10) of Pluto-size bodies could exist only on very eccentric and long-periodic orbits, typical of the scattered disk, while the existence of about 30 bodies brighter than absolute magnitude 4 in the classical belt is compatible with the discovery of Varuna by the Spacewatch survey.     

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.     

Exsolution and shock microstructures of igneous pyroxene clasts in the Northwest Africa 7533 Martian meteorite

Northwest Africa (NWA) 7533 is a Martian regolith breccia. This meteorite (and its pairings) offers a good opportunity to study (near‐) surface processes that occurred on early Mars. Here, we have conducted a transmission electron microscope study of medium‐ and coarse‐grained (a few tens to hundreds of micrometers) Ca‐rich pyroxene clasts in order to define their thermal and shock histories. The pyroxene grains have a high‐temperature (magmatic) origin as revealed by the well‐developed pigeonite–augite exsolution microstructure. Exsolution lamella characteristics (composition, thickness, and spacing) indicate a moderately slow cooling. Some of the pyroxene clasts display evidence for local decomposition into magnetite and silica at the submicron scale. This phase decomposition may have occurred at high temperature and occurred at high oxygen fugacity at least 2–3 log units above the QFM buffer, after the formation of the exsolution lamellae. This corresponds to oxidizing conditions well above typical Martian magmatic conditions. These oxidizing conditions seem to have prevailed early and throughout most of the history of NWA 7533. The shock microstructure consists of (100) mechanical twins which have accommodated plastic deformation. Other pyroxene shock indicators are absent. Compared with SNC meteorites that all suffered significant shock metamorphism, NWA 7533 appears only mildly shocked. The twin microstructure is similar from one clast to another, suggesting that the impact which generated the (100) twins involved the compacted breccia and that the pyroxene clasts were unshocked when they were incorporated into the NWA 7533 breccia.     

Evaluation of a dynamically downscaled atmospheric reanalyse in the prospect of forcing long term simulations of the ocean circulation in the Gulf of Lions

The paper evaluates atmospheric reanalysis as possible forcing of model simulations of the ocean circulation inter-annual variability in the Gulf of Lions in the Western Mediterranean Sea between 1990 and 2000. The sensitivity of the coastal atmospheric patterns to the model resolution is investigated using the REMO regional climate model (18 km, 1 h), and the recent global atmospheric reanalysis ERA40 (125 km, 6 h). At scales from a few years to a few days, both atmospheric data sets exhibit a very similar weather, and agreement between REMO and ERA40 is especially good on the seasonal cycle and at the daily variability scale. At smaller scales, REMO reproduces more realistic spatio-temporal patterns in the ocean forcing: specific wind systems, particular atmospheric behaviour on the shelf, diurnal cycle, sea-breeze. Ocean twin experiments (1990–1993) clearly underline REMO skills to drive dominant oceanic processes in this microtidal area. Finer wind patterns induce a more realistic circulation and hydrology of the shelf water: unique shelf circulation, upwelling, temperature and salinity exchanges at the shelf break. The hourly sampling of REMO introduces a diurnal forcing which enhances the behaviour of the ocean mixed layer. In addition, the more numerous wind extremes modify the exchanges at the shelf break: favouring the export of dense shelf water, enhancing the mesoscale variability and the interactions of the along slope current with the bathymetry.     

Stratigraphy and age of a Neoglacial sedimentary succession of proglacial outwash and an alluvial fan in Langedalen,Veitastrond, western Norway

This study presents the sedimentary succession of an outwash plain and an alluvial fan located along the valley Langedalen at the south-eastern side of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in inner Sogn, western Norway. A newly exposed ~2.8-m-high section along the southern riverbank of Langedøla river shows alternating layers of minerogenic sediments and peat layers with tree logs, identified as Salix sp. The section is situated in the distal part of an alluvial fan built out from the southern slope of Langedalen. Six AMS radiocarbon dates of tree fragments indicate that the accumulation of the fine-grained sediments in the lower part of the section was initiated earlier than the basal radiocarbon date of 914–976 calibrated years CE (1σ age range). These basal, fine-grained sediments are interpreted as proglacial outwash deposited in a floodplain depression or abandoned river channel in a low-energy glaciofluvial environment. Periods of low glacier cover, low river discharge or low-water stands over the floodplain allowed peat formation and the growth of trees and shrubs in the valley. The radiocarbon dates further indicate relatively rapid sediment accretion (~2.7–3 cm a⁻¹) between 190 and 125 cm below the sediment surface, equivalent to approximately 1220 to 1250 cal. a CE (1σ age range). At ~60 cm depth below the surface, dated to approximately 1590 to 1620 cal. a CE (1σ age range), a transition to more coarse-grained, sandy and gravelly sediments indicates increased sediment supply and distal expansion of the alluvial fan. This occurred most likely as a consequence of increased sediment yield from expanding glaciers along the southern valley side of Langedalen as a response to the initial Little Ice Age glacier growth. Based on these results, the accretion and progradation of glacier-fed alluvial fans mainly occur during periods of glacier advance rather than during glacier recession.     

Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990–2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability.     

Reflections on the current state of global climate response

What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.