南海夏季风撤退的气候特征Ⅱ——年代际变化

南海地区夏季风撤退期有明显的年代际变化,与南海夏季风维持期相类似,在1970年代末期有明显的突变。所以分析工作以1978年为界,主要是将前20年情况与后20年进行对比。前20年夏季风撤退较早,撤退期降水较少,对流活动较弱;后20年则与此相反,夏季风撤退较晚,撤退期降水较多,对流活动较强。南海地区夏季风撤退期的年代际变化与PDO和太阳磁循环的气候变化比较一致。     

澳门近百年气候变化的多时间尺度特征

对澳门近百年的地表气温和降水等观测资料进行了统计分析和小波变换计算。结果表明,年/季节平均气温和年降雨量等气候变量的变化普遍存在2～5年周期的显著振荡,同时,振荡在时间域上有明显的局部性。年平均气温的周期约为60年的振荡与Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)密切相关,两者的位相相当一致。季节平均气温的变化存在明显的季节性差异,夏季和冬季分别有周期约为30年和60年的振荡,它们分别与Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)和AMO的变化显著相关。前汛期降雨量和年蒸发量也有周期为几十年的年代际变化。     

TYPICAL WEATHER CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION IN HONG KONG AREA

With the hourly data of Air Pollution Index (API) by Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD) during the 6 years of 2000 - 2005 and NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data of 2.5° × 2.5° wind and pressure fields, the characteristics of API in Hong Kong area and the impacts of typical weather characteristics on the air pollution in Hong Kong have been studied. The results are shown as follows. (1) The API exhibits obvious seasonal variability as the number of air pollution days increases by the year. For most of the local monitoring stations, it is the most from January to March, a little less from July to September and the least from April to June. (2) There are four typical types of weather situations that are responsible for the air pollution in Hong Kong: tropical cyclones, continental cold highs, transformed highs that have moved out to sea and low pressure troughs.     

香港地区空气污染的典型天气背景形势

利用香港地区2000～2005年共6年每小时一次的空气污染指数(API)资料和NCEP/NCAR 2.5 °×2.5 °风场、气压场再分析资料分析了香港地区空气污染指数特征以及典型天气形势对香港地区空气污染的影响.结果表明:近几年,香港地区空气污染日逐年增加,空气污染指数有明显的季节变化,大部分监测站空气污染日出现次数最多的是1～3月,其次是7～9月,出现次数最少是在4～6月;造成香港地区空气污染典型的天气形势有热带气旋型、大陆冷高压型、入海变性高压型和低压槽型四类.     

Umbrella structure and channel-wall stoping in the Cambrian St. Roch Formation,Quebec Appalachians: significance for particle support mechanisms and turbulence development in hyper-concentrated sediment gravity flows

Umbrella structure is a newly recognized sedimentary structure associated with large platy clasts in resedimented boulder-bearing pebble conglomerate with a sandy matrix. It consists of a sand rim that lacks pebbles on parts or the entire underside of platy boulders, whereas on the upper side, pebbles are in direct contact with the boulders. The depositing processes were high- to hyper-concentrated sediment gravity flows in a submarine channel or canyon on the Cambrian continental slope of North America bordering the Iapetus Ocean. The structure occurs predominantly where clasts dip moderately in the down-current direction. Based on the association of the structure with slightly forward dipping slabs, it is proposed that these down-current dipping slabs may have been in the process of counter-clockwise rotation that was aborted and may have generated a pressure shadow on the underside enabling the inrush of fluid and the infiltration of sand into the anomalous low-pressure zone. The structure has implications for particle support mechanisms in high- to hyper-concentrated sedimentary gravity flows, in that it redirects attention to the much debated mechanism of dispersive pressure and alternatives. It provides an observable sediment structure that supports dispersive pressure which so far depended on experimental evidence and theoretical arguments alone. Vrolijk and Southard’s (1997) concept of a ‘laminar sheared layer’ is here for the first time interpreted as having an upward-moving ‘free-surface’ layer effect during deposition from hyper-concentrated flows. Channel-wall stoping involves unlithified turbiditic spillover sand in the levee sediment of the canyon wall that was washed out by the upper diluted parts of the high-concentration flows coming down the channel and leaving a niche in the wall that was filled with coarser channel-axis facies by the same flow (or later flows) when its aggradation reached the level of the niche. The contact between turbidite and pebble conglomerate occurs now more than 2 m laterally into the exposed channel wall. Channel-wall stoping tracks turbulence development in hyper-concentrated gravity flows.     

Time series forecasting by combining the radial basis function network and the self‐organizing map

Based on a combination of a radial basis function network (RBFN) and a self‐organizing map (SOM), a time‐series forecasting model is proposed. Traditionally, the positioning of the radial basis centres is a crucial problem for the RBFN. In the proposed model, an SOM is used to construct the two‐dimensional feature map from which the number of clusters (i.e. the number of hidden units in the RBFN) can be figured out directly by eye, and then the radial basis centres can be determined easily. The proposed model is examined using simulated time series data. The results demonstrate that the proposed RBFN is more competent in modelling and forecasting time series than an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to actual groundwater head data. It is found that the proposed model can forecast more precisely than the ARIMA model. For time series forecasting, the proposed model is recommended as an alternative to the existing method, because it has a simple structure and can produce reasonable forecasts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-resolution simulations of a macrotidal estuary using SUNTANS

The parallel, finite-volume, unstructured-grid SUNTANS model has been employed to study the interaction of the tides with complex bathymetry in the macrotidal Snohomish River estuary. The unstructured grid resolves the large-scale, O(10 km) tidal dynamics of the estuary while employing 8 m grid-resolution at a specific region of interest in the vicinity of a confluence of two channels and extensive intertidal mudflats to understand detailed local intratidal flow processes. After calibrating tidal forcing parameters to enforce a match between free surface and depth-averaged velocities at several locations throughout the domain, we analyze the complex dynamics of the confluence and show that the exposure of the intertidal mudflats during low tide induces a complex flow reversal. When coupled with the longitudinal salinity gradient, this flow reversal results in a highly variable salinity field, which has profound implications for local mixing, stratification and the occurrence of fine-scale flow structures. This complex flow is then used as a testbed from which to describe several challenges associated with high resolution modeling of macrotidal estuaries, including specification of high resolution bathymetry, specification of the bottom stress, computation of the nonhydrostatic pressure, accurate advection of momentum, and the influence of the freshwater inflow. The results indicate that with high resolution comes the added difficulty of requiring more accurate specification of boundary conditions. In particular, the bottom bathymetry plays the most important role in achieving accurate predictions when high resolution is employed.     

南海夏季风维持期的气候特征Ⅰ——40年平均

使用NCEP的1958～1997年逐日格点气象资料,对我国南海地区(105～120°E,5～20°N)夏季风维持期40年平均的气候特征进行了分析,分析时间尺度是候.南海夏季风维持期由活跃期和非活跃期组成.我们将南海上空850hPa连续有40%以上面积盛行暖湿的西南风的候定义为南海夏季风的活跃期,不足40%则定义为非活跃期.这里所指的暖湿西南风是θse必须大于335K,西南风的风速必须大于2m/s.就40年平均而言,南海夏季风维持时间大约为23候约4个月,每年南海夏季风活跃期约出现4.3次,每次的平均维持时间约为3.9候,非活跃期约出现3.3次,每次的平均维持时间约为2.4候,活跃期每年的总长度约为17候,非活跃期约为8候.无论是南海夏季风活跃期还是非活跃期,南海上空850hPa都为一个低槽辐合区,200hPa为高压辐散区,也就是说与活跃期相比非活跃期主要气候特征表现为季风的减弱,在环流的偏差场上(活跃期减非活跃期)在南海上空850hPa上为西风,200hPa上为东风.活跃期无论在850hPa或在200hPa上都比非活跃期要暖一些,与此相应,非活跃期的季风降水要比活跃期的小得多,对流活动也大大减弱.南海夏季风和夏季风降水都有明显的30～60天的低频振荡,在多数情况下夏季风和夏季风降水的低频振荡的位相比较一致.     

风廓线仪研究现状与应用初探

风廓线仪是新一代大气遥感测风系统。简述了风廓线仪的工作原理，介绍了其应用研究现状，采用澳门和香港风廓线仪资料分析了热带风暴“圆规”影响时的特征，表明在热带风暴的影响下，风向转变非常快，并且在其登陆前后风向发生了明显的转变。从澳门和香港风廓线仪资料的对比及香港风廓线仪资料与探空资料的对比分析可见，风廓线仪测量的数据有较好的一致性，在珠江三角洲地区应用的前景是很广阔的。     

Numerical comparison study of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes for a moderate snowfall event in North China

Summary A moderate snowfall event in North China is simulated using the high-resolution mesoscale model MM5. A fourfold-nest experiment, with a minimum horizontal grid size of 2 km, is run. In order to study the cloud microphysics processes associated with the snowfall, two experiments were conducted in two inner domains, one using the Goddard scheme (Goddard experiment), and the other using the Reisner scheme (Reisner experiment). The analysis focused on the comparison of the cloud microphysics processes which occurred in the experiments. It is shown that there is no implicit precipitation of cumulus parameterization in the domain of grid scale 18 km. The snowfall distribution patterns in the experiments are slightly different, but the microphysical characteristics and processes may have considerable differences between the two experiments: (1) The water substances in the cloud have cloud water, cloud ice and snow, but no rainwater and graupel in the Goddard experiment. However, the water substances in the cloud have cloud ice, snow, and graupel, but no cloud water and rainwater in the Reisner experiment. (2) The cloud ice mixing ratios in the Goddard experiment are larger than those in the Reisner experiment. (3) In the Goddard experiment, the dominant cloud microphysical processes include the growth of cloud water by the condensation of supersaturated vapor, the depositional growth of cloud ice, the initiation of cloud ice, the accretion of cloud ice by snow, the accretion of cloud water by snow, the deposition growth of snow and the Bergeron process of cloud ice. In the Reisner experiment, the dominant cloud microphysical processes include the depositional growth of cloud ice, the conversion of cloud ice to snow, the deposition of snow, and the deposition growth of graupel. (4) There is only snowfall in the Goddard experiment. Meanwhile, there is ice fall, snow fall, and graupel in the Reisner experiment. But the ice fall and graupel in the Reisner experiment is very slight and can be ignored.