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用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。 相似文献
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热带太平洋气候变率的三类模态及与ENSO强度变化的关系 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
基于Kaplan等重建的1856—2001年全球海表水温距平(SSTA)资料,用小波变换分析了热带太平洋SSTA的气候变率,对热带太平洋SSTA分别进行2—8、8—30和30—100a带通滤波,然后进行EOF分解。结果发现,ENSO模态具有5a左右的年际变化和15a左右的年代际变化2种显著周期,当二者位相相同时,ENSO事件加强,当二者位相相反时,ENSO事件减弱,当年际变化不明显时,显著的年代际变化也可单独导致ENSO事件;热带太平洋SSTA气候态变率以西太平洋暖池和赤道两侧的热带中东太平洋明显海温同号异常为主要特征,具60a左右的周期,其相位变化与气候跃变及El Nifio事件的类型有密切联系;长期增温倾向加大了El Nifio事件的振幅。文章最后指出,ENSO事件强度变化是由年际、年代际和气候态等3类模态变率共同作用的结果,在ENSO预报模式中考虑并引入年代际和气候态变化对ENSO循环的影响,是提高ENSO预测水平的有效途径之一。 相似文献
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随着纳米科技的快速发展,纳米材料的种类和数量呈指数增长。人工纳米材料不可避免地进入水环境并发生复杂的环境行为,可能在水中分散悬浮,也可能发生团聚和沉降,从而影响其迁移、转化和归趋。本文综述了近年来有关人工合成纳米材料在水环境中聚沉行为的研究进展,分析了影响纳米材料团聚与沉降的两个主要因素:自身理化性质(材料形态、颗粒尺寸、化学组成、晶体结构、表面修饰等)和水环境要素(pH、离子种类和离子强度、天然有机质等)及相应的作用机理,剖析了当前研究中存在的问题,指出有关纳米材料与无机胶体等物质间的异团聚、各环境要素间的交互作用、以及纳米材料在接近自然环境的低浓度(<1mg/L)条件下的聚沉行为研究仍需进一步完善。 相似文献
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1INTRODUCTIONTropicalwesternPacificOceanisanareathathasthehighestoceantemperatureacrosstheglobe.Asmostofthewarmwaterconcentratesintheregion,itisknownasthe搘esternPacificwarmpool?Asshowninsomestudies[1-5],thegeneralcirculationandshort-termclimaticchangeswillbeseriouslyaffectedifthermodynamicconditionchangesinthewaters,whichthenhaveanimportantroletoplayintheonsetofanyENSOepisodes.Therehasnotbeenanyunifieddefinitionoftheindexforthewarmpool.FollowingthecriterionofWyrtki[4],however,theareae… 相似文献
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Multi-year SST and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind data were employed to study the impacts of El Nino on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM),It was found that the impacts of El Nino on the SEASM differed distinctly from those on the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon(ISM).Composite analysis indicated that the “gear point“of coupling between the Indo-mosoon circulation and the Pacific-Walker circulation was located in the western margins of Southeast Asia when the developing stage of El Nino events covered the boreal summer.The anomalous circulations in the lower and upper troposphere and divergent circulation are all favorable for the strengthening of the SEASM during this period.Following the evolution of El Nino,the “gear point“ of the two cells shifted eastward to the central Pacific when the mature or decaying period of El Nino events covered the boreal summer.The anomalous circulations are favorable for the weakening of the SEASM ,The anomalous indexes of intenstity of SEASM accord well with the above resultsl.Additionally,the difference of SSTA patterns in the tropical In-do-Pacific OCean between the two stages of the El Nino may play an important role. 相似文献
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By using the simulation results of an AGCM, which had been run from 1945 to 1993 forced by
COADS SST, the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere was investigated and compared with that of
NCEP reanalysis data. It was found that, interdecadal variability exists significantly in both the tropical Pacific
wind fields and the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation of the model atmosphere. The tendency of time
variation and spatial distributions of the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere are basically consistent with observation. Relative to the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation, the simulation of tropical Pacific wind is more satisfying, which suggests that anomalous variation of SST is still the main factor for the
interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific wind. It might have more significant influence on the tropical wind
than on the mid-high latitude atmosphere. However, there is still obvious difference between the simulation and
observation. They could be attributed to both the simulation capability of the model and absence of other factors
in the model which are important for the interdecadal climate variation. 相似文献
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