热带太平洋海温异常气候态变率与我国气候异常

用Kaplan等重建的1856－2001年全球海面水 温距平（SSTA）资料，分析了热带太平洋SSTA气候态变率，其主模态以热带西太平洋和赤道南北两侧的热带东太平洋大值同号为主要特征，其时间系数具60a左右的显著周期，它与全球气候跃变和夏季西北太平洋副热带高压及我国汛期降水的长期变化有密切联系。根据热带太平洋气候态变率60a左右的时间尺度，预测未来10a内，我国汛期降水仍以长江流域偏多为主，华北干旱形势难以缓解。

CLIMATIC VARIABILITY OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SSTA AND ITS RELATIONS TO CHINESE CLIMATE ANOMALY

Based on the global SSTA data from1856to2001reconstructed by Kaplan et al.,the climatic state(multi-decadal)variability of the tropical Pacific SSTA was analyzed by the morlet wavelet transform and EOF,the results indicated that SSTA in the Tropical Pacific has climatic state variability with about60years period,its first mode has obvious anomalies over the western tropical Pacific and the both sides of equatorial eastern Pacific,and its time series has close relations to the subtropical high index and global climate jumps.According to these relations,the precipitation will tend to be more in Yangtze River and less in HuaBei area during coming10years.