近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析

本文利用澜沧江流域及周边共30个气象站点1960-2014年的逐月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析、Co-Kriging插值以及重心模型等方法,分析了澜沧江流域降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 分析时段内全区、北部和中部年降水量呈现增加趋势,南部年降水量出现减少趋势。春季全区、北部、中部和南部降水均呈增加趋势;夏季均呈减少趋势;秋季全区和南部降水呈现减少趋势,北部和中部呈增加趋势;冬季全区、中部和南部呈下降趋势,只有北部呈增加趋势。② 近55年来,全区包括北部、中部和南部年降水都存在近29年、近22年和5-10年左右的周期,这3个周期在分析时段内表现很稳定,具有全域性。全区、北部和南部还存在明显的13年左右的周期,中部1975年前和1995年后也存在13年左右的周期,北部1975年前存在明显的7-10年的周期,1995年后,7-10年的周期表现也比较稳定。降水量变化的第一主周期是近29年,第二主周期是近22年。③ 澜沧江流域多年平均降水量由南部向北部减少,流域南部降水最多,多年平均降水量在1200 mm以上,中部多年平均降水量处于800~1100 mm,北部多年平均降水量多小于800 mm,大部分在400~800 mm;澜沧江流域年降水重心和月降水重心都集中在中部,其中11月的降水重心迁移距离最大,向东南方向迁移了131.82 km。从季节来看,春季、夏季和秋季降水重心向东南迁移,冬季的向西北方向迁移,雨季降水重心相对比较集中,旱季降水重心相对 比较分散。     

滇池流域降水时空变异特征分析

降水是区域水资源形成的主要影响因素,其时空变化趋势也直接影响着各种生态系统的结构、服务功能及空间分布与演变。降水时空变异分析是认识区域水资源形成与时空演变的主要手段和方法。本文利用滇池流域及周边雨量站逐月数据,采用回归分析、距平、空间相关性分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Co-kriging插值及交叉验证等方法,对1953-1987年和2007-2012年2个时序系列的时空变异特征分析结果表明：（1）1953-1987年春、秋和冬季降水量有升高趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,但各季节的增减趋势不显著,2007-2012年春、夏、冬季呈减少趋势,秋季为增加趋势,近期降水量明显有减少趋势;（2）1953-1987年流域降水量呈现增加趋势（11.12 mm/10a）,大致经历下降-上升-下降过程,2007-2012年流域降水量呈显著的锯齿状减少趋势,处于枯水期;（3）1953-1987年各时段的雨量主要呈现负相关性（不显著）,2007-2012年间呈现正相关性,通过LISA统计分析认为,空间异质性随地理位置和时间而变化;（4）年均降水量与雨季降水量的空间分布特征基本相似,出现2个降水高值区和2个低值区对顶分布态势。但在2007-2012年,降水量的高值范围有所减少,低值区范围相应有所扩大。     

川渝地区夏季降水变化气候特征分析

利用川渝地区34站1960—2006年共计47年的逐月降水量资料,采用经验正交函数（BOF）分解、旋转经验正交函数（REOF）分解、小波分析等方法详细讨论了川渝地区夏季降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明：川渝地区夏季降水量时空分布不均,川渝地区夏季降水量可以分为3个区,分别是川西高原区、盆地中部区和盆地东部区。近50年来,川渝地区夏季降水量具有显著不同的年代际变化特征,川西高原和盆地东部夏季降水量长期变化呈增加的趋势,而盆地中部呈减少的趋势。川渝各区夏季降水量具有显著不同的多时间尺度的周期变化特征,其中川西高原具有准15年和准5年的周期变化特征,盆地中部具有准14年、准6年和准3年的周期变化,盆地东部具有准16年、准8年和准3年的周期变化特征。     

近60年“雅安天漏”变化特征分析

针对雅安地区特殊的"天漏"气候特征及以往对其变化特征研究较少问题,利用雅安市1951~2010年降水资料,从降水量和雨日数出发,通过回归分析、小波分析等现代气候统计诊断方法,综合分析"雅安天漏"的变化特征。结果表明:在降水量上,雅安市年降水量总体呈显著减小趋势,20世纪90年代中期以后尤为明显;从季节尺度上来看,春、夏、秋三季降水量呈现明显减少趋势,但冬季与之相反;从逐月降水比重可以看出,极大值主要出现在7、8、9月;从量级上看,小雨、中雨、大雨的降水量均在减小,暴雨却在增加,但各量级降水所产生的降水量与全年总降水量的比值相对比较稳定。从雨日数上看,雅安市四季的雨日数均表现出减少趋势,各个强度量级的雨日数也均在波动减小。小波分析结果显示:年降水量和雨日数在年代际时间尺度均存在准周期振荡。     

前期印度洋海温异常对中国春季降水的影响

为了进一步认识印度洋海温的异常变化与中国降水的关系,采用SVD分析、相关分析及合成差值分析讨论了前期冬季关键区海温的异常变化对中国春季降水影响的差异,探讨了产生这种影响的原因。结果表明:前期冬季关键区海温的异常增高(降低),会造成后期春季中国华北往南到华中、华东、华南东部及西北的新疆地区的降水明显增多(减少),西南的四川、贵州及华南的广西等地降水会有所减少(增多)。与关键区冷年相比,在关键区的暖年,环流形势反映出东欧槽显著减弱,北方气压显著降低,蒙古高压明显减弱,冷空气南下更为明显,而华南东部、华中、华东及华北一直被较为显著的南风气流控制,海洋的暖湿气流向中国内陆输送更为显著,使得东部及中部大部分地区水汽较为充沛,形成大面积的降水。     

湛江市降水年代际特征及其影响机制

【目的】研究湛江地区降水的年际、年代际特征及其影响因素。【数据】基于1962-2016年湛江地区6个国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、同期月平均ONI、PDO序列和月平均风场、相对湿度等再分析资料,【方法】结合线性倾向估计、连续小波变换、相关分析等多种统计学方法。【结果与结论】湛江地区降水存在准2 a、5~8 a的年际振荡,降水日数有显著的准40 a年代际振荡;夏、秋季节的降水变化构成了湛江地区全年降水变化的主要部分;除冬季降水量增加外,各季节降水与降水日数基本呈现"偏多-偏少"的年代际特征;进一步对比发现P1(降水偏多)时期涝年较多,旱年较少,P2(降水偏少)时期恰好相反,但严重涝年偏多,降水强度增大,极端性降水事件发生频次增多。通过对湛江地区降水可能产生影响的因素分析发现:P2时期湛江地区降水频次的减少主要是由于西北太平洋副热带高压的增强、西南季风的减弱以及夏、秋季孟加拉湾和中南半岛异常下沉气流影响所致;冬季南海东部低层异常气旋环流是P2时期降水增加的一个主要原因;P2时期ENSO、PDO等大尺度海气系统在调控湛江地区降水变化中所起作用均有增加。     

基于MODIS-NDVI的云南省植被覆盖度变化分析

植被覆盖变化监测是区域资源环境承载力研究的基础,本文通过计算2001-2016年MODIS-NDVI植被指数,辅以趋势分析、变异系数等方法,估算了2001-2016年云南省植被覆盖度,进而探讨了植被覆盖度的时空变化特征及与地形因子之间的分布关系。结果表明：① 2001-2016年云南省植被覆盖度呈显著增加趋势,增速为4.992%/10 a。② 在空间上,植被覆盖度空间格局呈现由南向北、由西向东逐渐降低的特征,滇西、滇西南地区植被覆盖度最高,滇西北地区最低;植被覆盖度稳定性表现为由西南向东北方向波动性越来越大;滇东北地区植被覆盖度增加趋势明显优于其他区域,研究区内植被覆盖度变化趋势为增加、基本稳定和减少趋势的面积分别占49.53%、43.76%和6.71%。③ 植被覆盖度在2001-2006年、2006-2011年、2011-2016年3个时段的面积转移矩阵结果均表现为植被覆盖进化面积大于退化面积,二者的比值分别为1.42、1.63、2.01,植被覆盖情况呈持续改善趋势。④ 云南省植被覆盖度与地形因子之间的关系表现为,平均植被覆盖度随海拔增加呈先增加再减少、再增加、再减少趋势;随坡度的增加呈先增加再减少趋势;随坡向的变化呈由北向南逐渐减少趋势。     

彭州市立体农业气候资源的研究(一)降水资源分析

分析了彭州市境内位于不同海拔高度的4个观测站的降水资料，结果表明，彭州市雨量充沛，但降水量的年际变化显著，雨季起、止时间和雨季长、短的年际变化很大，降水的时间分配极不均匀，因为这4个站具有相同的气候背景、，降水量的年、季、月变化呈现基本一致的规律和趋势，但因为海拔高度不同等气候背的差异，4站的降水特点又显著不同。降水量随海拔高度的升高而增加，降水变幅和雨日也阴海拔高度的升高而增加，大降水过程具有明显的局地性，不同海拔高度的旱、涝情况亦有差异，降水的空间分布表现出明显的立体性特征。     

1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应

本文基于云南省1954-2014年32个气象站点逐月降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、径向基函数空间插值法、小波分析法、R/S分析法、Z指数法,分析了61年的云南省降水序列、旱涝情态的时间特征和空间格局。结果表明：在此期间除春季外,其余各季节降水量均呈现减少态势,年降水量总体以8.1 mm/10 a的速率减少,并且在未来一段时间内将保持减少趋势。多年平均降水量由云南省南部的西双版纳州向西北部的丽江市-迪庆州一带逐步减少;年降水量存在准2 a、准6 a、准8 a、准18 a、准28 a的周期性特征,且以准28 a为主周期;干旱化趋势增加速率较快（K_L=0.359）,印证了降水减少态势,洪涝化趋势减小速率相对较慢（K_I= -0.071）;旱灾易发地区主要涉及5个州,分别为迪庆州、德宏州、西双版纳州、红河州、楚雄州;洪涝易发地区涉及3州2市,依次为怒江州、大理州、文山州、普洱市及邵通市。     

湖北十堰降水量的气候特征与旱涝分析

针对十堰市旱涝灾害问题,利用1971~2011年十堰站逐日降水量观测数据,采用一元线性回归、小波分析、分级评价、Z指数等方法分析了十堰降水量的气候特征以及旱涝特征。结果表明,十堰市近41年年降水量倾向率为-16.3mm/10a,总体呈变少的趋势,特别是1985~2001年降水偏少较明显;降水量季节变化呈现秋季显著减少,春季次之,夏季略有增多的趋势,4月有减少趋势;年降水量有较强的周期变化特征,20世纪80年代到90年代初,年际变率在4~8年这个周期上较强,其他年份以2~4年周期为主;十堰旱涝中以旱为主,春旱主要集中发生在2000年以后,夏旱在2000年以后有增加的趋势,伏旱在1970年代和1980年代是一个高发期,一般性洪涝主要发生在8月。     

Variation of Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains,China

The Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water(precipitation) in an area relative to the climatic demand for water(potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the spatial and temporal variation of drought and to verify the influence of environmental factors on the drought in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Results indicate that the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Hengduan Mountains had been increasing since 1960 with a rate of 0.1938/yr. Annual Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains was between –97.47 and 67.43 and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious in different seasons. Thornthwaite moisture index was high in the north and low in the south, and the monsoon rainfall had a significant impact on its spatial distribution. The tendency rate of Thornthwaite moisture index variation varied in different seasons, and the increasing trends in spring were greater than that in summer and autumn. However, the Thornthwaite moisture index decreased in winter. Thornthwaite moisture index increased greatly in the north and there was a small growth in the south of Hengduan Mountains. The increase of precipitation and decrease of evaporation lead to the increase of Thornthwaite moisture index. Thornthwaite moisture index has strong correlation with vegetation coverage. It can be seen that the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Thornthwaite moisture index was positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. Correlation between Thornthwaite moisture index and relative soil relative moisture content was positive in spring, summer and autumn, but negative in winter. The typical mountainous terrain affect the distribution of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological factors in this region, and then affect the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The unique ridge-gorge terrain caused the continuity of water-heat distribution from the north to south, and the water-heat was stronger than that from the east to west part, and thus determined the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The drought in the Hengduan Mountains area is mainly due to the unstable South Asian monsoon rainfall time.     

Effect of the Zagros Mountains on the spatial distribution of precipitation

In order to examine the effect of the Zagros Mountains on precipitation, first, the annual and Seasonal rainfall indices （rain days frequency, rain amount, daily rainfall intensity, and heavy rains） from 43 stations in 1995 - 2004 between the 30° N to 35° N parallels over the mountain range were analyzed. Second, the effect of the Zagros Mountains was studied through the computation of the spatial correlations between the precipitation parameters and the topographic indices （station site elevation, station mean elevation within a radius of 2.5 km, mean elevation of 9 blocks along each of the eight Cartesian directions, and the elevation differences of these 9 blocks from the station mean elevation）. The results showed that in the cold season the maximal rainfall occurs on the upper range of west slope, while in warm season it spreads over the study area. The correlations between precipitation and elevation indices were positive on the north of the stations and negative on the south of the stations, that is, the higher elevations of the stations to the north force the uplifting of the moist air masses and increase rainfall at the stations, while the lower elevations to their south lead the movement of the moist air masses to the stations. This is due to the fact that these stations or slopes are exposed to the moist air masses coming from the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. The heavy rain days and the summer sporadic rain events do not show significant correlations with the topographic indices. The findings indicate that the Zagros Mountains intensify the cold period frontal rains especially over the west slope and block the moist air masses from entering the interior parts of the country. Moreover, these mountains play a secondary role in creating rain days. But they are very important in the production of precipitation in the area. Therefore, their absence will decrease the amount of rainfall to their west and, in return, expand the dry climates of their west and east.     

青藏高原冬季降水时空分布特征研究

青藏高原冬季降水的气候特征认识对高原冬季雪灾的防御有着重要意义。基于青藏高原54个气象站1971~2010年冬季(12~2月)逐月降水量资料,利用现代统计方法分析了青藏高原冬季降水的时空分布特征及突变现象,利用经验正交函数(EOF)和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)概括出高原冬季降水的6种主要空间分布型以及区域性特征进行分析。结果表明:冬季降水分布不均匀,偏东偏南部降水量相对较多,冬季降水在12月最少,2月最多;EOF对青藏高原地区冬季降水分解为6种模态,全区一致型、南北部型、东西部型、川西型、高原腹地型和西部型模态;EOF第1模态时间系数表明高原大部分地区冬季降水在20世纪90年代有显著增加、且存在14年左右的周期变化特征。REOF分析表明,高原地区冬季降水的局地特征显著,而高原腹地与中东部地区变化特征显示了高原冬季降水的主要变化特征,与EOF分析第1模态的变化特征较为一致。     

Responses of soil moisture to vegetation restoration type and slope length on the loess hillslope

Soil moisture, a critical variable in the hydrologic cycle, is highly influenced by vegetation restoration type. However, the relationship between spatial variation of soil moisture, vegetation restoration type and slope length is controversial. Therefore, soil moisture across soil layers (0-400 cm depth) was measured before and after the rainy season in severe drought (2015) and normal hydrological year (2016) in three vegetation restoration areas (artificial forestland, natural forestland and grassland), on the hillslopes of the Caijiachuan Catchment in the Loess area, China. The results showed that artificial forestland had the lowest soil moisture and most severe water deficit in 100-200 cm soil layers. Water depletion was higher in artificial and natural forestlands than in natural grassland. Moreover, soil moisture in the shallow soil layers (0-100 cm) under the three vegetation restoration types did not significantly vary with slope length, but a significant increase with slope length was observed in deep soil layers (below 100 cm). In 2015, a severe drought hydrological year, higher water depletion was observed at lower slope positions under three vegetation restoration types due to higher transpiration and evapotranspiration and unlikely recharge from upslope runoff. However, in 2016, a normal hydrological year, there was lower water depletion, even infiltration recharge at lower slope positions, indicating receiving a large amount of water from upslope. Vegetation restoration type, precipitation, slope length and soil depth during a rainy season, in descending order of influence, had significant effects on soil moisture. Generally, natural grassland is more beneficial for vegetation restoration than natural and artificial forestlands, and the results can provide useful information for understanding hydrological processes and improving vegetation restoration practices on the Loess Plateau     

Spatial and temporal variation of drought index in a typical steep alpine terrain in Hengduan Mountains

This study describes the spatial and temporal variation of a drought index and makes inferences regarding the environmental factors that influence this variability in the Hengduan Mountains. A drought index is typically used to determine the moisture conditions and the magnitude of water deficiency in a given area. Based on data from 26 meteorological stations over the period 1960-2012, the spatial and temporal variations of the drought index were analyzed using a thin plate smoothing splines method that considered elevation as a covariate. The drought index was estimated based on the potential evapotranspiration (E₀) as defined by the Penman Monteith model modified by FAO (1998). The results of the reported analysis showed that the drought index in the Hengduan Mountains has been decreasing since 1960 at a rate of -0.008/a. This represented a progressive shift from the "sub-humid" class, which typified the wider area in the Hengduan Mountains, toward the "humid" class, which appeared in the Hengduan Mountains areas. The drought index was relatively high in the north and low in the south and the variation of the drought index varied with seasons. The drought index showed increasing trends in summer and autumn and it is greater in autumn than in summer, while it showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter. Drought index is inversely proportional to the soil relative humidity and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).     

Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.     

新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究

基于新疆50个气象测站2003-2010年逐日降水、气温资料,结合逐月归一化植被覆盖影像资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析、模糊C均值聚类、图像处理等方法,系统分析了全疆NDVI时空变化特征及其可持续性,并探究NDVI与气候因子（气温、降水）之间的相关性。研究表明：植被覆盖及气象因子年际间差异不大,呈现出整体稳定的态势,但年内变化明显。北疆/天山北坡水热条件优良、植被长势最好,且植被长势对气候因子的滞后效应并不明显且滞后时间短。天山南坡/天山东段次之,而南疆植被覆盖程度最差,南疆/天山南坡植被长势对气候因子（降水、气温）存在明显的滞后效应,植被生长受气温、降水限制性更大,且气温作为主要因子,对天山南坡植被生长的限制作用表现得更为突出。总体上,新疆植被覆盖呈持续性变化,现有植被覆盖情况基本保持不变,但呈退化趋势的面积大于得到改善的面积,在一定程度上与人类活动有很大关系,探查植被长势的变化趋势并及时做出相应调整,不仅能为新疆地区的植被保护以及植被恢复工作提供一定的科学依据,更能够为合理有效地安排农作物生产提供重要的理论指导。     

全球温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国降雨诱发地质灾害危险性和人口暴露度评估研究

气候变化情景下极端降水事件的频次和强度预估呈增加趋势,这会导致全球部分地区极端降雨诱发地质灾害风险的增加。本文基于中国降雨诱发地质灾害易发性模型和不同地貌分区的累积事件降雨量-降雨历时阈值曲线,采用最新的CMIP6全球气候模式多模式集合结果,基于全球温升目标情景的视角,从地质灾害空间易发性和发生频次两方面,探讨温升情景下中国地质灾害危险性的可能变化及其对暴露人口的潜在影响。结果表明,CMIP6多模式集合预估的多年平均降水在温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下相比基准时期可能增加5.4%～9.5%,导致中等至极高地质灾害易发区范围预估增加0.33%～0.74%,由于预估的极端降水事件增加,地质灾害发生频次预估增加7.0%～11.2%,进一步综合未来人口空间分布,潜在地质灾害暴露人口可能增加6.20亿人次（18.90%）和4.26亿人次（12.97%）。各地貌分区未来情景下地质灾害危险性预估增加且存在显著的空间异质性,温升2.0℃情景下中等至极高易发性范围相比基准时期增加0.71%～1.28%,地质灾害发生频次预估增加1.2%～15.6%,其中,青藏高原区地质灾害危险性增加最明显。综合考虑未来人口...     

河南省雨季降水时空变异特征分析

降水的时空变异分析是认识区域水资源形成与演变的重要方法。时空变异特征分析不仅可以系统地对降水的时间序列进行分析,而且能从空间上把握降水的分布格局。本文将河南省近51年雨季降水资料,结合数字高程模型(DEM),利用回归分析、空间自相关分析、空间插值模拟及交叉验证等,对河南省降水时空变异特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)河南省雨季降水整体来看呈增加趋势,近年来尤为明显;但9月份表现异常,呈下降趋势。(2)月降水量差异明显,最大降水量在7月份,平均达到178.3 mm;(3)在空间上降水呈现出明显的南多北少,东多西少的格局;有明显的集聚特点,在南部以罗山、潢川为中心形成降水丰沛聚集区,北部以辉县为中心形成降水稀少聚集区;林县、栾川和西峡表现为空间例外,明显高于相邻区域的降水量。     

Characterizing spatial patterns of precipitation based on corrected TRMM 3B43 data over the mid Tianshan Mountains of China

The poor distribution of meteorological stations results in a limited understanding of the precipitation pattern in the Tianshan Mountains. The spatial patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains were characterized based on the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data. By comparing satellite estimates with observed data, it shows that TRMM 3B43 data underestimate the precipitation in mountain region. Regression models were developed to improve the TRMM 3B43 data, using geographic location and topographic variables extracted from DEM using GIS technology. The explained variance in observed precipitation was improved from 64% (from TRMM 3B43 products alone) to over 82% and the bias reduced by over 30% when location and topographic variables were added. We recalculated all the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation grids for the period 1998 to 2009 using the best regression models, and then studied the variation patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains. The results are well explained by a general understanding of the patterns of precipitation and orographic effects. This indicated that the Tianshan Mountains strongly influences the amount and distribution of precipitation in the region. This is highlighted by the confinement of the precipitation maxima to the windward (northern slope). And complex vertical changes in the provenance and distribution of precipitation, like that a negative increasing rate of precipitation in the vertical direction exists in the north but does not in south. The results have also revealed large gradients and different patterns in seasonal precipitation that are not simply related to elevation, the distribution of precipitation may also be affected by other seasonal factors such as the sources of moist air, wind direction and temperature.