因子集成及综合相似预测模型的研究和应用

针对西南区域（云、贵、川、渝）汛期（６－８月）旱涝预测问题，建立了一种以多种物理因子为基础的西南区域降水量预测模型，即因子集成及综合相似预测模型。该模型既考虑影响西南区域汛期降水的主要物理因素变化，又注重区域要素场自身演变规律。对于影响汛期旱涝的物理因子，采用对多个因素进行综合集成的办法，来体现所有因素对旱涝影响的整体作用。为了强调预测结果的客观性，我们借鉴目前ＮＷＰ集合预报思想，引入综合相似方法，给出西南区域大范围汛期降水距平百分率预测结果。近年来业务试用表明，该方法预测准确率稳定，有明显的预报技巧     

主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进，首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子，然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似，确定相似年，最后引入“集成”的思想，由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。     

四川盆地汛期旱涝预测研究

对近１０年来四川盆地汛期降水预测水平进行了定量评估，并与国家气候中心预测水平作了对比。在分析影响四川盆地汛期降水主要物理因素的基础上，提出了四川盆地汛期旱涝预测的基本思路和技术方法，并在实际业务预报中取得了较好的效果。     

川渝冬季降水的年际变化及其与海温异常的关系

为了认识川渝冬季降水与海温之间的关系,利用川渝地区44个站点降水资料和海表温度资料并借助EOF分解、小波分析和相关分析等方法,讨论了川渝冬季年际降水变化特征及其与前期海温异常之间的关系。结果表明：川渝冬季年际降水空间分布主要有3个类型,EOFl型为川渝冬季降水的一致偏多（偏少）,EOF2型为川渝西南部、东部降水偏少（偏多）,而川渝地区西北部、中部降水偏多（偏少）;EOF3型为川渝西南部降水偏多（偏少）,而东北部降水偏少（偏多）;EOF1型和EOF2型降水与前期海温的相关明显小于EOF3型并较为分散,EOF3型降水与前期夏季、秋季海温在热带中、东太平洋和印度洋中、北部呈现非常显著的正相关,对应ENSO特征非常明显。     

GRAPES_Mesov3.1在西南地区2011年汛期的预报检验分析

基于GRAPES_ Mesov3.1模式建立的GRAPES_ Meso中尺度模式系统在西南区域气象中心运行稳定,该系统于2011年5月投入试验运行.应用GRAPES模式分析产品,NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料,实况资料以及2011年西南低涡探空加密观测资料等,对2011年汛期GRAPES_ Meso系统的预报进行统计检验与天气过程分析.结果表明,模式对2011年8月川渝持续高温、9月16～18日四川东北部大暴雨等高影响天气过程有较强的预报能力,这对实际天气预报有着积极的指导意义.预报与实况偏差主要表现在模式通常超报云南地区降水,而对西南其他地区易漏报.模式通常低报青藏高原到四川西部气温,高报四川东部及重庆地区气温.预报高度场持续偏低,西南低空急流预报偏强,对流层中低层比湿偏低,这些可能是造成降水强度偏弱、降水落区偏北、强降水落区偏小的主要原因.对流层中低层高度场持续偏低,低空急流偏强与模式温度预报偏高和加热不均匀有关.同时模式对平原地区较高原山地预报要好,误差通常随等压面高度降低而增大,在一定程度上表明复杂地形对模式预报影响较大.     

GRAPES-Mesov3.1在西南地区2011年汛期的预报检验分析

基于GRAPES-Mesov3.1模式建立的GRAPES-Meso中尺度模式系统在西南区域气象中心运行稳定,该系统于2011年5月投入试验运行。应用GRAPES模式分析产品,NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料,实况资料以及2011年西南低涡探空加密观测资料等,对2011年汛期GRAPES-Meso系统的预报进行统计检验与天气过程分析。结果表明,模式对2011年8月川渝持续高温、9月16~18日四川东北部大暴雨等高影响天气过程有较强的预报能力,这对实际天气预报有着积极的指导意义。预报与实况偏差主要表现在模式通常超报云南地区降水,而对西南其他地区易漏报。模式通常低报青藏高原到四川西部气温,高报四川东部及重庆地区气温。预报高度场持续偏低,西南低空急流预报偏强,对流层中低层比湿偏低,这些可能是造成降水强度偏弱、降水落区偏北、强降水落区偏小的主要原因。对流层中低层高度场持续偏低,低空急流偏强与模式温度预报偏高和加热不均匀有关。同时模式对平原地区较高原山地预报要好,误差通常随等压面高度降低而增大,在一定程度上表明复杂地形对模式预报影响较大。     

广东省前汛期多雨或少雨年降水异常研究

广东省前汛期降水的年际变化较大,为对广东地区的旱涝变化有进一步的认识,利用广东省观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料以及向外长波辐射通量资料,采用经验正交函数分解和合成分析方法研究了1970~2007年广东前汛期4~6月降水的年际变化异常以及时空特征,得出第一类雨型是广东前汛期一致多雨或少雨型。对造成第一类雨型的异常特征进行分析,得出:中高纬度地区大尺度环流场的变异引起环流异常分布,使得副高、西南季风水汽输送、冷空气活动等气候场产生变异,从而引起广东前汛期降水异常。经向风、相对湿度、垂直运动、向外长波辐射通量等分析得到多雨年与少雨年水汽条件、垂直运动条件、对流发展活动环流异常的分布特征。     

100hPa环流变化与川渝地区旱涝异常分析

应用ＳＶＤ技术，诊断分析了北半球１００ｈＰａ高度场与川渝地区夏季降水的关系。结果表明：高度场与降水场具有密切的时空相关性，第一模态反映了两场间的主要耦合特征；南亚高压活动地区前期１０～１２月、１～４月高度场变化，通过影响未来夏季南亚高压强度、位置，导致川渝地区夏季旱涝异常。高度场与降水场的这种非同步联系，物理意义明确，时空相关显著，是一种有价值的预测川渝地区夏季旱涝异常的强信号。     

1997年四川汛期旱涝趋势预测评述

简要回顾了１９９７年汛期预报情况，检验了汛期降水预报效果，分析了大气、海洋、高原热状况等主要物理因素对四川汛期旱涝的作用。     

四川地区月降水量的一种预测模型

本文对1960～1979年四川地区48个测站的月降水资料,在稳斜因子分析的基础上,用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型进行随机建模。时间序列分别来源于PROMAX斜旋转解的因子得分。因子得分序列的主周期由周期图和方差分析方法求出,-维ARI-MA(p,d,q)模型识别用Box-Jenkins方法进行。对1980年的月降水量预测结果表明,距平预报的年平均准确率为58.33％。     

Distribution of Aluminum and Fluoride in Tea Plant and Soil of Tea Garden in Central and Southwest China

The distribution of Al and F contents and the relationship between Al and F in tea plants and soils of 12 tea gardens in Central and Southwest China were investigated from October 31 to November 14, 2006. The results show that there were differences in pH, CEC, the contents of organic matter (OM), Al and F in the different soils of the tea gardens. The Al content ranged from 1196 to 7976mg/kg for old leaf, 370 to 2681mg/kg for young leaf and 285 to 525mg/kg for stem, whereas the content of F ranged from 221 to 1504mg/kg for old leaf, 49 to 602mg/kg for young leaf and 13.5 to 77.5mg/kg for stem. The concentrations of labile Al varied obviously in the different soils, but the distribution law of labile Al content for the same garden was Alexchangeable≈AlFe-Mn oxide>Alorganic>Alwater-soluble. The contents of different labile F fractions varied slightly in the different soils and the different soil layers, though the exchangeable F content was lowest among the labile F in the soils. The concentrations of Al and F in tea plants increased with increasing amount of water-soluble Al or F, especially the amount of water-soluble fractions in the soil layer of 0-20cm.The correlation between Al content and F content in the tea leaf was more significant than that in the tea stem. Furthermore, the correlation between Al content and F content in whole tea plant was strongly significant (r=0.8763, p<0.01, n=36). There were evident tendency that Al concentration increased with the increase of F concentration in different soil layers. The correlation of water-soluble Al with water-soluble F in all soils was also strongly significant (r=0.7029, p<0.01, n=34). The results may provide a proof that Al and F are jointly taken up by tea plants to some extent in natural tea gardens.     

北部湾海域秋、冬季甲壳类的种类组成及分布

根据 2 0 0 1年 11至 2 0 0 2年 1月间北部湾海域秋、冬季 2个航次的底拖网渔业资源调查资料 ,对北部湾海域甲壳类的种类组成及分布进行研究。本次调查共渔获虾类 2 4种 ,隶属于 6科 11属 ;蟹类 30种 ,隶属 9科 19属 ;虾蛄 9种 ,隶属 2科 6属。各种类沿水深和地理分布有明显变化 ,主要集中分布于湾中部水深 2 1～ 80m海域。     

泰安市泰山区土地利用更新调查的做法与经验

2003年11月，山东省政府决定在全省范围内集中开展土地调查工作（包括城镇地籍变更调查和土地利用现状更新调查），泰安市国土资源局泰山区分局作为国土资源部土地更新调查的试点单位，从2004年6月起先后开展了土地利用基础图件与数据更新调查工作、城镇变更地籍调查工作，其中土地利用基础图件与数据更新调查已于2006年9月通过国土资源部验收，城镇变更地籍调查也已基本完成，进入初验阶段。     

南秦岭古生代盆地演化中幕式流体过程及成岩成矿效应

从南秦岭古生代盆地构造-沉积演化出发,通过分析古生界不同层位流体成岩成矿事实与盆地发展演化之间的关系,探讨了南秦岭早古生代—泥盆纪演化时期多幕流体过程和成岩成矿效应。幕式流体成岩成矿最早可追溯到早寒武世,区域上从东到西形成了重要的碳硅质岩中重晶石/毒重石矿床及金、铂族元素矿化;早、中志留世继续发展,形成了钠长石岩、重晶石岩、铁碳酸盐岩、硅质岩与铅-锌、金矿床;中泥盆世为最强烈的一次热水沉积活动,其规模大、热水沉积产物多样,形成了泥盆系硅质岩-钠长石岩-重晶石岩-铁白云石岩中的铅锌(铜)矿床、铁白云石硅质岩中铅锌(铜)矿床以及钠长石角砾-铁白云石板岩中金-铜矿床。     

Distribution and pollution assessment of trace metals in seawater and sediment in Laizhou Bay

Selected trace metals(Pb, Cd, Cu, Hg) and arsenic in seawater and surface sediments of Laizhou Bay were determined, to evaluate their spatial distribution, pollution risk and potential ecological risk. Concentrations of the elements were 0.56–2.07, 0.14–0.38, 12.70–18.40, 0.014–0.094, and 1.13–2.37 μg/L in the seawater and 8.94–32.2, 0.18–0.67, 4.51–30.5, 0.006–0.058, and 5.75–15.3 mg/kg in sediments for Pb, Cd, Cu, Hg and As, respectively. High concentrations of the trace metals and arsenic in seawater and surface sediments were generally observed near the river estuary. The pollution risk result of the elements showed that Cu was the prominent trace metal pollutant in seawater, followed by Hg, Pb, Cd and As. The metal complex pollution index in seawater was at a medium level. The most important trace metal pollutant in sediments was Cd, followed by As, Cu, Pb, and Hg. Our pollution assessment suggests that trace metal pollution in Laizhou Bay sediments was at a low level. The potential ecological risk was also low in surface sediment.     

Evaluation and analysis of provincial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity in China

Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.     

Symbiosis of Marshes and Permafrost in Da and Xiao Hinggan Mountains in Northeastern China

Recently, the degradation of permafrost and marsh environments in the Da and Xiao Hinggan Mountains has become a great concern as more human activities and pronounced climate warming were observed during the past 30 years and projected for the near future. The distr/bution patterns and development mechanisms of the permafrost and marshes have been examined both in theories and in field observations, in order to better understand the symbiosis of permafrost and marshes. The permafrost and marshes in the Da and Xiao Hinggan Mountains display discernible zonations in latitude and elevation. The marsh vegetation canopy, litter and peat soil have good thermal insulation properties for the underlying permafrost, resulting in a thermal offset of 3 ℃ to 4℃ and subsequently suppressing soil temperature. In addition, the much higher thermal conductivity of frozen and ice-rich peat in the active layer is conducive to the development or in favor of the protection of permafrost due to the semi-conductor properties of the soils overlying the permafrost. On the other hand, because permafrost is almost impervious, the osmosis of water in marsh soils can be effectively reduced, timely providing water supplies for helophytes growth or germination in spring. In the Da and Xiao Hinggan Mountains, the permafrost degradation has been accelerating due to the marked climate warming, ever increasing human activities, and the resultant eco-environmental changes. Since the permafrost and marsh environments are symbiotic and interdependent, they need to be managed or protected in a well-coordinated and integrated way.     

小城市和建制镇土地集约利用面临的挑战与对策

小城市和建制镇土地集约利用程度低 发达国家的城镇化历程表明,城镇化水平达到30％后,城镇化即驶入快车道。目前,我国城镇化水平接近40％,已进入加速发展阶段,这一过程不依人们的意志为转移,也是我国实现现代化的必经之路。同时,我国城镇化水平还     

章丘地区土壤硒的含量分布及影响因素

以章丘地区土壤为对象,系统分析了表层、深层土壤及8条剖面土壤中Se元素的含量水平,研究了土壤中Se的分布特征及其与土壤类型、成土母质、地形地貌和土壤理化性质及组分的关系。结果表明：章丘地区表层土壤中Se含量在0.1～0.8mg/kg之间,以中硒土壤为主,富硒土壤面积173km2。土壤类型中,水稻土Se平均含量水平最高,为0.55mg/kg;成土母质中以石炭—二叠纪泥页岩发育的土壤Se含量最高;剖面土壤中的Se主要在表层富集。影响章丘地区土壤Se含量分布的主要因素是成土母质、地形地貌、土壤pH、有机质及土壤中硫、铁铝氧化物等组分。     

2011年初云南东部极端低温冰冻灾害天气气候特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAA再分析资料,国家气候中心74项环流指数及云南省122个观测站资料,结合诊断、合成和相关分析等方法,探讨2011年初云南东部极端低温冰冻灾害天气气候特征及成因,并与2008年初低温冰冻灾害进行对比分析。旨在寻找云南低温冰冻天气的预报着眼点,为提前做好防灾减灾工作提供决策依据。研究表明:500hPa高度场欧亚中高纬呈两槽一脊,西西伯利亚高压脊异常强大,贝巴之间为东西向横槽,东亚中高纬呈"+-+"的高度场距平分布,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏东偏弱,南海副高异常偏南偏弱是2011年1月云南东部频遭冷空气影响的大尺度大气环流背景。另外,相关分析发现NINO4区海温持续异常偏冷对应云南东部气温异常偏低。较2008年初持续近2个月的低温雨雪冰冻灾害相比,虽然2011年灾害影响时间较短,范围较小,但冷空气过程频发,昆明准静止锋长时间控制云南东部,最终造成近50年来的极端低温冰冻灾害。