扩散模拟型流域地貌汇流模型

根据概念性流域地貌汇流模型的一般理论，以概念性元素“扩散模拟河段”模拟各级单元河道的汇流作用，建立 以洪水波的波速和扩散系数为参数的扩散模拟型流域地貌汇流模型。     

林草和梯田措施对小流域降雨—径流—输沙过程的影响分析

定量评估林草、梯田的减水减沙作用对黄河流域水土流失防治和生态保护具有重要意义.该文以偏关河偏关水文站以上流域和清涧河子长水文站以上流域为研究区,分别应用改进的分布式LCM-M USLE坡面水沙联动模型和原模型进行天然时期(1980s)和现状年(2010s)的"降雨—径流—输沙"过程模拟,计算坡面汇流过程中林草、梯田及其耦合措施的减水减沙作用并分析主要影响因素.结果表明:1)改进后模型适用于现状年的径流(输沙)量模拟,可反映下垫面显著变化(坡改梯和植被恢复)对径流、泥沙坡面汇流的影响;2)梯田措施的单位面积径流(输沙)削减量大于林草措施,径流(输沙)削减率显著小于林草措施,且林草和梯田措施的径流(输沙)削减率之和略大于二者耦合的径流(输沙)削减率;3)流域尺度梯田措施下径流(输沙)削减率的影响因素排序为梯田比>梯田集水区与流域面积比>田埂完整度,林草措施下影响因素排序为林草面积比>植被覆盖度>林草减水面积比.     

森林水文作用的流域尺度效应及其评价

森林植被覆盖对于地面水文过程的影响,随森林面积或流域尺度大小而不同,尺度效应的准确识别和定量评价比较困难.通过水文尺度效应的形成机理分析,对主要影响机制和变化特征进行了讨论,提出了分析评判中的主要因素,即从流域大小或森林覆被对能量平衡、潜在蒸散发、水源组成、汇流速度以及河槽调蓄能力的变化等方面来对流域尺度变化的效应大小进行评价.随着流域面积的增加,森林植被的影响降低而河槽调蓄的作用增大,流域尺度也会影响汇流的路径变化,大流域的地下水比重更大,对洪水形态和枯季径流量都有显著的影响.研究还提出基于投入产出原理的最佳森林覆被率的概念和建议比率,结果有助于区分森林本身和流域大小各自对径流特征的贡献,更加合理地评估森林水文效应.     

黄土区人类活动影响下的 产汇流模拟研究

日益频繁的人类活动改变了流域下垫面条件,对流域产汇流产生很大的影响。本文以黄河中游典型支流岔巴沟为研究区域,提出利用基于DEM的分布式水文模拟技术,探讨流域人类活动过程中的产汇流模拟,避免了经验公式的概化和由此引起的局限。模拟的结果证实了该方法的可行性。采用网格滞蓄的方法可以在子网格上体现人类活动引起的下垫面的变化及其对产汇流的影响,反映各个时期的产汇流条件,对降雨做出合理响应。     

小江流域泥石流堆积扇形成的制约因素及其特征

在系统分析了各种因素对泥石流堆积扇形成影响的基础上,提出流域腹地中流域面积、沟床比降和堆积区主河河谷宽度及主河能量等因素对泥石流堆积扇发育的影响较大。结合TM卫星影象和1:5万地形图,解译了小江流域内泥石流堆积扇的范围。在此基础上,统计了流域腹地内两大重要条件-流域面积和沟床比降与堆积扇面积之间的关系。在小江流域,堆积扇的面积随流域面积的增加而增加,二者之间是正的指数关系;而堆积扇面积与沟床比降之间可用一个负的指数关系式表达。最后,堆积区特征对小江流域泥石流堆积扇的影响主要是其堆积空间限制了大型堆积扇,比如蒋家沟泥石流堆积扇的发展。     

水文循环模拟中下垫面参数化方法综述

针对水文循环模拟中地形、土地利用覆被等流域下垫面参数化方法众多,且模拟效果相差较大的现状。本文首先根据水文循环模拟中产汇流原理,对常用水文循环模拟中产汇流模拟方法进行汇总和分类;在此基础上,对产流模拟中的降水径流相关系数法、蓄满产流和超渗产流等及汇流模拟中的等流时线、单位线、圣维南方程、马斯京根法等主要模拟方法中地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型参数化方法进行分析和讨论;根据其中流域地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型参数化方法对机理过程的描述程度,将其分为无明确表示类、率定型参数类、确定型参数类、物理过程表达类;进而阐明不同参数化方法中流域地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型对水文循环模拟结果的响应和贡献。最后回归模型本质,阐述水文循环模拟中流域下垫面参数化方法中存在经验关系对复杂机理简单表述的合理性和物理机理过程描述的欠缺性问题,并预估未来水文循环模拟中下垫面参数化方法朝着简洁实用化和复杂机理化两个方向发展。     

水平分辨率对DEM流域特征提取的影响

选取石质山地与黄土丘陵过渡区宛川河流域作为研究区,利用1∶5万、水平分辨率10~100 m栅格DEM提取流域特征参数进行分析。结果表明:DEM水平分辨率对数字河网的提取精度有影响,提取的流域面积差别很小,河流长度、河道总长、河道坡度以及河网密度有偏差,流域平均坡度变化明显,长度和坡度特征参数的变化导致流域汇流时间及滞时不一致。     

中小流域暴雨洪水计算及参数地理综合研究进展

中小流域暴雨洪水计算及其参数综合在洪水灾害防治中起着关键作用。变化环境引发暴雨洪水等水文极值增加,中小流域暴雨洪水灾害面临严峻挑战。文章对中小流域暴雨洪水计算全过程及参数综合研究进展进行系统回顾、梳理和总结,并对目前常用的产汇流计算方法及其参数在实际应用中存在的问题和局限性进行探讨。流域下垫面和暴雨特性的空间异质性大,产流损失根据其地理特征形成以经验和半经验方法为主的计算方法;汇流计算以推理公式和单位线法为主,流域地形地貌汇流特征能基本反映,但流域形状和微地形在当前计算方法中反映甚少;当前使用的参数成果均由20世纪80年代前的数据得到,限于资料精度和技术水平,参数综合要素较为简单,多地出现不适用现象,亟需开展新一轮的暴雨洪水计算参数综合;在中小流域暴雨洪水过程模拟及实时预报上,结合雷达测雨、高分辨率遥感、高性能计算和深度学习等技术方法的研究已初具规模,建议加强利用新兴技术计算流域产汇流参数,推进其在暴雨洪水设计上的应用。     

分布式水文模拟汇流方法及应用

对于必须考虑汇流过程的分布式水文模型而言 ,其汇流模型可以分解为三个层次来讨论 :第一个层次是单元划分 ;第二个层次为汇流路径 ;第三个层次则是基于该汇流路径的汇流演算模型。基于栅格的分级运动波汇流模型是根据栅格DEM的网格单元水流流向来划分栅格等级 (汇流带 ) ,然后应用运动波模型进行逐级汇流演算。文中从可操作性的角度对栅格分级方法和运动波汇流模型进行了分析讨论 ,最后根据潮白河流域 1 981～ 1 990年资料进行了日径流过程模拟分析 ,说明该方法在理论上是合理的 ,并在应用中取得良好的模拟效果。     

计算机辅助绘制流域等流时线

采用地理信息系统方法，对流域的地形地貌特征进行分析，模拟水质点在流域上的运动轨迹，并根据水质点汇流时间与汇流路径，坡度，坡长的关系，建立了流域汇流等流时线模型，经实例验证，效果较好。     

土壤数据空间分辨率对水文过程模拟的影响

分布式水文模型的应用,其准确性有赖于输入数据对流域特征的描述,尤其在大尺度流域,输入数据分辨率的增加是否必然改善模型的模拟效果是值得深入研究的问题。本文以鄱阳湖信江流域为研究区,运用SWAT模型为模拟工具,分析了土壤数据空间分辨率对径流、蒸发及土壤含水量等水文要素模拟的影响以及高精度土壤数据在大流域尺度的适应性。结果表明：不同分辨率的土壤数据对SWAT模型中水文响应单元的划分结果差异显著,但在径流模拟和蒸发计算结果中并没有表现出显著的差别;模型率定前后,低分辨率土壤数据的径流模拟结果略好于高分辨率土壤数据,但两者之间的差别不明显;模型模拟的土壤含水量差异显著,高分辨率土壤模拟的月平均土壤含水量整体大于低分辨率土壤模拟结果;研究还发现,模型的蒸发计算对土壤分辨率信息不敏感。本文研究意味着,大尺度SWAT模型的应用中,土壤数据分辨率的提高不一定会改善模型的模拟效果。在具体应用中,应考虑流域本身的尺度以及模拟精度的要求,选择合适分辨率的土壤数据,同时应结合模型原理和关键参数的物理含义来解释模拟结果。     

流域降雨径流路径的数字模拟技术

流域内降雨径流流动过程的水文分析具有重要意义。此文基于地理信息系统的栅格系统,利用数字高程模型(DEM)提供地形特征的能力,通过一系列相连的数据集,用计算机对流域降雨径流路径进行了数字模拟,其可以实现以正确的水文顺序跟踪地表径流在流域空间范围内的流动路径,并确定地表径流在流域空间内流动路径的水文计算等级,为基于流域降雨径流关系的建模研究提供了空间分析基础。最后把该项研究成果应用于黄家二岔小流域,证实该模拟技术具有一定的可靠性和实用性。     

华北石质山区坡地产流模型

坡地是流域的基本产流单元。对坡地产流模型的研究,可为研究流域的水文过程奠定基础。本文在认识坡地产流规律的基础上,经过对人工模拟降雨试验中取得的产流各个环节(降雨、出流及土壤含水量变化)的数据的分析,建立了一个具有物理机制的简单的坡面产流模型。其中,使用Horton模型模拟入渗和地表产流过程,用水箱模型模拟壤中流过程。模型能够同时对降雨过程中的地表、地下出流和土壤含水量变化过程进行模拟。计算得到的产流总量的误差较小,但在变化过程线上存在一些差异。这些差异主要是由模型对实际情况的简化和假定、数学模拟的局限性、变雨强降雨过程的复杂性等因素引起的。这种分层组合的坡面产流模型对华北石质山区的上层超渗、下层蓄满的产流特征是可行的。本文所做的工作是对华北石质山区分布式水文模型的产流模块的初步尝试。     

潮河上游降水- 径流关系演变及 人类活动的影响分析

以潮河密云水库上游流域为研究对象, 利用双累积曲线将1961~2005 年期间年降水- 径 流关系演变划分为三个阶段: 1961~1978, 1979~1993, 1994~2005。第二和第三阶段相对第一阶段 而言, 平均年径流有较大幅度的减少, 年径流对降水的响应程度在减弱。与此相对应, 进入1980 年代后, 流域内的人类活动强度在增加, 主要表现为小水库、塘坝等水利设施的大规模建成并投 入使用, 以及农垦和造林等土地利用活动导致耕地和林地面积的增加。人类活动使得流域总蒸发 和入渗增加, 从而改变水量平衡, 径流对降水的响应变得迟缓, 减少流域总径流; 不同降水年型降 水- 径流的关系表现出很大差异, 人类活动对枯水年份年径流的影响相对较大。     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic change in Lake Tanganyika: VIII. Hydrological evaluation of two contrasting watersheds of the Lake Tanganyika catchment

This study was conducted to delineate the impact of human activities on stream flow and water chemistry as well as other factors that influence the chemical character of both surface and groundwater in two contrasting watersheds of the Lake Tanganyika catchment. The study sites the Mwamgongo and Mitumba streams along the northern Tanzanian coastline of the lake are representative of disturbed and undisturbed watersheds, respectively, but are quite similar in other characteristics of slope, bedrock geology and size. Separation of stream flow components was undertaken using classical hydrograph analysis along with chemical methods using both Cl and ¹⁸O data. All the data show that groundwater accounts for the predominant source of total stream flow in both the Mwamgongo and Mitumba watersheds (65 and 70% respectively). The streams have an average ¹⁸O of about -3.0% and less than 10 mg/l for Cl. The basin recession constants of 9.4×10^-3-d^-1 and 9.6×10^-3-d^-1 for Mwamgongo and Mitumba, respectively, indicate existence of both fissured and fractured aquifer systems. The chemical data exhibit low values of all determined ions. This supported the hypothesis that natural processes influence the water chemical character of the study area. An Mg–HCO₃ type of water dominates in the two watersheds. Despite their similar size and bedrock character the Mwamgongo watershed has an order of magnitude in sediment transport than the Mitumba one. The data show that the disturbed watershed discharges less groundwater and more sediments, and has a poorer water quality than the forested Mitumba watershed, which lies within the Gombe National Park. The data show that soil erosion processes are more active at Mwamgongo, and that both the surface runoff component of the total stream flow and increased dissolved salt load is greater in the deforested Mwamgongo watershed than in the Mitumba watershed. The chloride and ¹⁸O data complemented each other in delineating the amounts of groundwater in the total stream flow as the results using both data differed insignificantly. It may be concluded that the undisturbed watershed has a higher retention of good quality water and traps more sediments than the disturbed one. In addition, the groundwater component plays a dominant role in the total annual stream flow at each watershed.     

流域土壤有效厚度水平衡验证及其对陆面水碳通量模拟的影响

由于土壤特性和植被分布具有区域性,不同流域土壤有效厚度存在差异,进而影响土壤蓄水容量和陆面水碳等通量的时空分布。以湿润地区的东江流域,湿润、半湿润地区的淮河流域以及半湿润、半干旱地区的泾河流域为研究对象,采用LPJ动态植被模型,以水量平衡为目标率定土壤有效厚度,分析不同气候区典型流域土壤有效厚度以及土壤蓄水容量和陆面水碳通量（径流量R,实际蒸散发量ET和净初级生产力NPP）变化。结果表明：东江、淮河、泾河流域的土壤有效厚度分别为70 cm、90 cm和140 cm,土壤有效厚度和蓄水容量随着气候干旱程度增加而增加;土壤有效厚度的修正有效减低该模型水平衡误差,对陆面水碳通量模拟结果的影响程度与区域气候条件有关,湿润地区多年平均径流深和实际蒸散发修正前后变化显著,半湿润、半干旱地区NPP变化显著。研究成果为提高LPJ模型在不同气候区应用可靠性提供参考依据。     

IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON SURFACE HYDROLOGY,LITTLE EAGLE CREEK,INDIANA, AND ANALYSIS OF LTHIA MODEL SENSITIVITY TO DATA RESOLUTION

Land-use change in urbanizing areas can significantly alter the hydrology of a watershed and can have serious impacts on wetland water balances, downstream flooding, and groundwater recharge. Most currently available models used in determining the hydrologic impacts of urbanization are not well suited to long-term hydrologic analysis or are too complex and data intensive for widespread practical application. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (LTHIA) model run on a Geographic Information System (GIS) is a relatively simple, user-friendly model that uses the Curve Number method to estimate changes in surface runoff between different stages of development. Application of the model to a large, rapidly urbanizing watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, suggests that average annual runoff depths increased by more than 60% from 1973 to 1991, with even greater increases for some individual sub-basins. These results are consistent with runoff changes estimated from historical stream flow data in the watershed. A sensitivity analysis to determine minimum data requirements shows that a precipitation record length of 15 years or more is required to produce consistent results with LTHIA and that the highest possible resolution land-use and soils data should be used. The LTHIA model is now available on the Internet at http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/runoff. [Key words: hydrology, urbanization, modeling, GIS.]     

A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR LOWER COASTAL PLAIN WATERSHEDS,SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES

A disributed, physically-based, watershed hydrologic simulation model, called COASTAL, has been specifically designed for use on watersheds of low relief where streamflow is supplied predominantly by ground water discharge. To use the model, the watershed is divided into square grid elements that are modeled by the lumped parameter approach. I nput data include daily temperature, daily precipitation, topographic elevation, soil field capacity, soil wilting point, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness and land use for each grid element and a watershed stream rating curve. One or more years of daily streamflow data are needed to calibrate the model. Yearly correlation coefficients between measured and simulated daily streamflow averaged 0.85 and ranged from 0.70–0.91 in tests of the model using 1957-1964 data for the Hurricane Creek watershed, Georgia. Correlation coefficients between measured and predicted annual, monthly, and annual maximum streamflow for the eight years tested were 0.97, 0.93, and 0.82, respectively.     

Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources

Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate in terms of climate and land use, but these changes can affect our water resources. Hence, we need a methodology that can predict both their individual and agglomerative ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating mathematical modeling and geographical information sciences to quantitatively examine the relative importance of the separate and combined hydrologic and water quality impacts of climate and land use changes.The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model was chosen in this study to simulate stream flow and nutrient transport process. Five hypothetical climate change scenarios were used to cover the possible ranges of variability in the year 2050. An enhanced population-coupled Markov-Cellular Automata (CA-Markov) land use model was developed to predict the 2050 land use pattern. When these scenarios were incorporated into the HSPF model, the future conditions in the LMR basin were postulated. The findings demonstrated that: 1) the LMR watershed would experience an increase in flow and nutrients under the 2050 land use projection, 2) stream flow and water quality impacts would be amplified when both climate and land use changes were simultaneously considered, 3) land use change (and in the case of the LMR watershed, urbanization) could help to alleviate water shortage during the dry years, 4) total phosphorus and nitrogen would increase under all future climate and land use scenarios; the highest increase was found under the combined wettest and future land use scenarios, and 5) the described approach is effective in simulating the hydrologic and water quality effects of climate and land use changes in a basin scale. These results are relevant to planners; they can be useful in formulating realistic watershed management policies and mitigation measures.     

Spatially and temporally distributed modeling of landslide susceptibility

Mapping of landslide susceptibility in forested watersheds is important for management decisions. In forested watersheds, especially in mountainous areas, the spatial distribution of relevant parameters for landslide prediction is often unavailable. This paper presents a GIS-based modeling approach that includes representation of the uncertainty and variability inherent in parameters. In this approach, grid-based tools are used to integrate the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model and infinite slope model with probabilistic analysis. The SMR model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology of forested watersheds by combining climate data, a digital elevation model, soil, and land use data. The infinite slope model is used for slope stability analysis and determining the factor of safety for a slope. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate the variability of input parameters and account for uncertainties associated with the evaluation of landslide susceptibility. This integrated approach of dynamic slope stability analysis was applied to the 72-km² Pete King watershed located in the Clearwater National Forest in north-central Idaho, USA, where landslides have occurred. A 30-year simulation was performed beginning with the existing vegetation covers that represented the watershed during the landslide year. Comparison of the GIS-based approach with existing models (FSmet and SHALSTAB) showed better precision of landslides based on the ratio of correctly identified landslides to susceptible areas. Analysis of landslide susceptibility showed that (1) the proportion of susceptible and non-susceptible cells changes spatially and temporally, (2) changed cells were a function of effective precipitation and soil storage amount, and (3) cell stability increased over time especially for clear-cut areas as root strength increased and vegetation transitioned to regenerated forest. Our modeling results showed that landslide susceptibility is strongly influenced by natural processes and human activities in space and time; while results from simulated outputs show the potential for decision-making in effective forest planning by using various management scenarios and controlling factors that influence landslide susceptibility. Such a process-based tool could be used to deal with real-dynamic systems to help decision-makers to answer complex landslide susceptibility questions.