乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川2009年出现物质正平衡

自1997年以来,乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融极为强烈,物质平衡呈大幅度亏损,连续12 a都处于强负平衡状态,平均物质平衡达-708 mm,且在2008年物质平衡达到历史最低值-999 mm,然而2009年出现了物质正平衡,物质平衡63 mm,年际变化量达1 062 mm。以2008-2009年物质平衡实测资料为基础,根据该地区的气温和降水资料分析,结果表明,造成这种现象的主要原因是夏季气温（5～8月）的降低,较2008年低1.8℃,致使冰川消融期的开始时间推迟至了7月份,结束时间提前到8月份,大大削弱了冰川的消融强度,其次是2005年以来逐渐增多的连续性降水,增加了冰川的积累量。     

人类活动与天山现代冰川退缩

在系统分析了中亚天山山两个长期进行物质平衡监测的乌鲁木齐河源１号冰川和图尤克苏冰川的资料,并引用其他研究成果后,发现中亚天山现代冰川１９７０年－１９９０年比１９３０年－１９７０年明显的退化。近２０年多来,中亚天山冰川加速退缩,解体,与被工业排放污染了大气有关。     

中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应——以乌源1号冰川和帕隆94号冰川为例

为认识全球变暖背景下中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应，本研究以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和藏东南帕隆94号冰川为例，结合大西沟与察隅站气象资料，对1980 — 2015年两条冰川的物质平衡变化特征及差异进行了分析。结果表明：36 a来乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质平衡总体上均呈下降趋势，累积物质平衡达-17102与-8159 mm w.e.，相当于冰川厚度减薄19与9.01 m，且分别于1996、2004年左右发生突变。同期两条冰川所处区域年均温呈显著上升趋势，而降水量却表现出不同的变化态势；二者年内气温分配相仿，但降水分配差异较大。初步分析认为气温上升是导致乌源1号冰川与帕隆94号冰川物质亏损的主要原因，冰川区气温和降水变化幅度的差异和地性因子（坡度、冰川面积）的不同使得乌源1号冰川对气候变化响应的敏感性高于帕隆94号冰川，由于目前海洋性冰川物质平衡监测时段相对较短，为深入研究中国西部冰川物质平衡变化及过程仍需加强对冰川的持续观测。     

近50 年来天山地区典型冰川厚度及储量变化

冰川储量变化与冰川水资源量变化以及冰川对河川径流的贡献量密切相关。在GPR-3S技术支持下, 本研究基于雷达测厚数据、不同时期的高分辨率遥感影像、地形图及实测资料, 分析了天山三个典型地区四条代表性冰川近期厚度及储量变化特征, 并通过对比探讨了造成变化差异的可能原因。结果表明, 1962-2006 年乌鲁木齐河源1 号冰川厚度平均减薄0.15m a^-1, 冰储量亏损26.2×10⁶ m³, 冰川末端平均退缩3.8 m a^-1;博格达峰南坡的黑沟8 号冰川在1986-2009 年间, 冰舌平均减薄0.57 m a^-1, 冰储量损失了25.5×10⁶ m³, 末端平均退缩11.0 m a^-1;位于博格达峰北坡的四工河4 号冰川在1962-2009 年间冰舌平均减薄0.32 m a^-1, 冰储量亏损14.0×10⁶ m³, 末端平均后退8.0 m a^-1;1964-2008 年间, 托木尔峰青冰滩72 号冰川冰舌平均减薄0.22 m a^-1, 由此至少造成冰储量亏损14.1×10⁶ m³, 末端退缩达40.0 m a^-1。对比分析显示, 青冰滩72 号冰川消融退缩最为强烈, 黑沟8 号冰川次之, 与乌鲁木齐河源1 号冰川、科其喀尔冰川相差不大, 稍大于四工河4 号冰川和哈密庙尔沟冰川。这种差异可能与区域气候变化和冰川物理特征有直接关系。     

气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。     

Study of annual mass balance(2011–2013) of Rikha Samba Glacier,Hidden Valley,Mustang, Nepal

Although Himalayan glaciers are of particular interest in terms of future water supplies, regional climate changes, and sea-level rises, little is known about them due to lack of reliable and consistent data. There is a need for monitoring these glaciers to bridge this knowledge gap and to provide field measurements necessary to calibrate and validate the results from different remote sensing operations. Therefore, glaciological observations have been carried out by the Cryosphere Monitoring Project(CMP) since September 2011 on Rikha Samba Glacier in Hidden valley, Mustang district in western Nepal in order to study its annual mass balance. This paper presents the first results of that study. There are 10 glaciers in Hidden Valley, named G1, G2, G3, up to G10. Of these, G5 is the Rikha Samba Glacier, which has the largest area(5.37 km2) in this valley and the highest and lowest altitudes(6,476 and 5,392 m a.s.l., respectively). The glacier mass balance discussed in this paper was calculated using the glaciological method and the equilibrium line altitude(ELA). The glacier showed a negative annual point mass balance along the longitudinal profile of its lower part from September 10, 2011 to October 3, 2012. Stake measurements from October 4, 2012 to September 30, 2013 indicated a negative areal average of annual mass balance-0.088±0.019 m w.e. for the whole glacier. Based on these observations, the ELA of the Rikha Samba Glacier is estimated at 5,800 m a.s.l. in 2013. This negative balance may be due to rising air temperatures in the region, which have been incrementally rising since 1980 accompanied by little or no significant increase in precipitation in that period. The negative mass balance confirms the general shrinking trend of the glacier.     

东帕米尔高原冰川运动特征分析

冰川运动控制着冰量输送变化,为冰川变化和冰川灾害研究提供重要信息。为了探讨东帕米尔高原冰川运动特征及其影响因素,基于ITS_LIVE和GoLIVE分析了不同规模、不同地形条件、表碛/非表碛区域的冰川运动速度状况。研究结果表明:(1)东帕米尔高原冰川平均运动速度为5.31 m·a^-1,冰川运动速度与冰川规模相关,表现为大冰川比小冰川运动快;(2)冰川运动速度与平均坡度相关,表现为随平均坡度增加先增后减,坡度过大不利于冰川积累,表现为厚度(规模)小,则速度慢。(3)西南(8.69 m·a^-1)、东南(11.67 m·a^-1)坡向的冰川运动速度大于其它坡向的冰川运动速度,与各个坡向的冰川规模相关。(4)表碛覆盖型冰川的运动速度小于非表碛覆盖型冰川,表碛对冰川运动速度起到抑制作用。(5)1989-2018年东帕米尔高原冰川运动速度表现稳定,与冰川年际变化稳定相对应。消融期冰川运动速度小于其它季节,与年内冰川厚度变化相关。     

High-precision measurements of the inter-annual evolution for Urumqi Glacier No.1 in eastern Tien Shan,China

High-precision measuring of glacier evolution remains a challenge as the available global and regional remote sensing techniques cannot satisfactorily capture the local-scale processes of most small- and medium-sized mountain glaciers. In this study, we use a high-precision local remote sensing technique, long-range terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), to measure the evolution of Urumqi Glacier No.1 at an annual scale. We found that the dense point clouds derived from the TLS survey can be used to reconstruct glacier surface terrain, with certain details, such as depressions, debris-covered areas, and supra-glacial drainages can be distinguished. The glacier experienced pronounced thickness thinning and continuous retreat over the last four mass-balance years (2015-2019). The mean surface slope of Urumqi Glacier No.1 gradually steepened, which may increase the removal of glacier mass. The glacier was deeply incised by two very prominent primary supra-glacial rivers, and those rivers presented a widening trend. Extensive networks of supra-glacial channels had a significant impact on accelerated glacier mass loss. High-precision measuring is of vital importance to understanding the annual evolution of this type of glacier.     

天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川致冷效应的小气候观测

高山冰川以其下垫面的致冷效应形成独特的冰川小气候.为研究冰川小气候特征,2007年7月在天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川表面及末端冰碛上架设5台自动气象站,并进行了为期一个月的基本气象要素的观测.以观测数据为基础,描述和分析了与冰川致冷效应有关的冰川区温度与湿度变化特征、冰面逆温、温跃现象、冰川风现象,并就冰川致冷效应对局地对...     

近50年来中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应

基于1960 年以来中国天山各流域冰川面积变化的统计分析,系统地研究了中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应情况。结果表明,近50 年来中国天山冰川的面积缩小了11.5%,对研究时段统一化后发现面积年均退缩率为0.31% a^-1。各流域冰川面积退缩速度存在一定差异,但冰川加速消融趋势明显。天山地区14 个气象站的气温与降水量倾向率平均值分别为0.34 ^oC·(10 a)^-1与11 mm·(10 a)^-1,气温在干季增幅大而在湿季增幅略小,降水量在干季增长缓慢而在湿季增长显著,这样的气候变化趋势有助于天山冰川的退缩。     

山地冰川与湖泊萎缩所指示的亚洲中部气候干暖化趋势与未来展望

天山北坡乌鲁木齐河1号冰川与土尤克苏冰川物质平衡观察表示80年代比以前出现大的亏损。青海湖与伊赛克湖在近百年一直处于萎缩状态。从小冰期最盛时以来,乌鲁木齐河谷中冰川面积已缩去44％。上述及其他冰川与湖泊变化证据清楚地指示本世纪气候干暖化趋势增强了,并可能延续到下世纪初。但如由于CO_2及其他痕量气体增加所致的温室效应使下世纪重现全新世早、中期那样的高温,则亚洲中部有可能转为潮湿。     

The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958–2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demonstrate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. (mm water equivalent), during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line altitude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mm/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.     

中亚天山山区冰雪变化及其对区域水资源的影响

冰川和积雪是构成山区固体水库的主体,对区域水资源稳定性具有调节功能,但深受气候变化的影响。以中亚天山为研究区域,基于长时间序列的观测数据,分别从冰川、积雪、水储量、径流等方面进行分析,并选取阿克苏河、开都河及乌鲁木齐河3个典型流域,研究天山山区冰雪变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明：① 冰川退缩速率与面积的函数关系为f（x） = -0.53×x^-0.15 （R² = 0.42,RMSE = 0.086）,说明小型冰川对气候变化的响应更为敏感。同时,中低海拔区域的冰川退缩速率大于高海拔区域;② 2003-2015年天山山区水储量的递减速率为-0.7±1.53 cm/a,天山中部区域的递减速率最大,这一结果与该区域冰川急剧退缩相吻合;③ 近半个多世纪以来,冰雪融水径流增加是这3个典型流域径流量增加的主要原因,其中阿克苏河增幅最大（达0.4×10⁸ m³/a）。但自20世纪90年代中期以来,3个流域的径流量都呈减少趋势,与流域内冰川面积减少、厚度变薄及平衡线海拔升高的关系密切。研究结果揭示了气候变化驱动下的山区固态水体储量变化对流域水资源的影响机制,以期为流域水资源管理提供有价值的决策参考。     

The Impact Of Extreme Summer Melt on Net Accumulation of an Avalanche Fed Glacier,as Determined by Ground‐Penetrating Radar

Glacier mass balance is more sensitive to warming than cooling, but feedbacks related to the exposure of previously buried firn and ice in very warm years is not generally considered in sensitivity studies. A ground‐penetrating radar survey in the accumulation area of Rolleston Glacier, New Zealand shows that five years of previous net accumulation was removed by melt from parts of the glacier above the long‐term equilibrium line altitude during a single negative mass balance year. Rolleston Glacier receives a large amount of accumulation from snow avalanches, which may temporarily buffer it from climate warming by providing additional mass that has accumulated at higher elevations, effectively increasing the elevation range of the glacier. However, glaciers reliant on avalanche input may have high sensitivity to climatic variations because the extra mass is concentrated on a small part of the glacier, and small variations in avalanche input could have a large impact on overall glacier accumulation. Further research is needed to better estimate the amount and spatial distribution of accumulation by avalanche in order to quantify the climate sensitivity of small avalanche‐fed glaciers.     

1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

过去44年乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡结果及其过程研究

通过1997—2003年度天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的观测结果,分析比较了过去44年间一号冰川物质平衡、累积物质平衡的变化过程,以及反映气候一地形要素和冰川发育条件要素的平衡线高度和冰川积累区比率,认为一号冰川负平衡波动期随时间推移而递增,目前处于其观测历史上物质平衡亏损最为强烈的时期。     

1990-2019年贡嘎山地区典型冰川表碛覆盖变化及其空间差异

表碛覆盖型冰川是中国西部较为常见的冰川类型。表碛层存在于大气—冰川冰界面,强烈影响大气圈与冰冻圈之间的热交换。表碛厚度的空间异质性可极大地改变冰川的消融率和物质平衡过程,进而影响冰川径流过程和下游水资源。基于Landsat TM/TIRS数据,运用能量平衡方程反演了贡嘎山地区冰川表碛厚度,研究了贡嘎山地区冰川在1990—2019年间表碛覆盖范围及厚度变化情况,同时对比了东西坡差异。结果表明：① 贡嘎山地区冰川表碛扩张总面积达43.824 km²。其中,海螺沟冰川扩张2.606 km²、磨子沟冰川1.959 km²、燕子沟冰川1.243 km²、大贡巴冰川0.896 km²、小贡巴冰川0.509 km²、南门关沟冰川2.264 km²,年均扩张率分别为3.2%、11.1%、1.5%、0.9%、1.0%和6.5%;② 海螺沟冰川、磨子沟冰川、燕子沟冰川、大贡巴冰川、小贡巴冰川、南门关沟冰川表碛平均增厚分别为5.2 cm、3.1 cm、3.7 cm、6.8 cm、7.3 cm和13.1 cm;③ 西坡冰川表碛覆盖度高,表碛覆盖年均扩张率低,冰川末端退缩量小;东坡冰川表碛覆盖年均扩张率高,但表碛覆盖度总体低于西坡,冰川末端退缩量大。     

2000—2014年喀喇昆仑山音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化

喀喇昆仑山区冰川由于存在正物质平衡或跃动、前进现象，被称之为“喀喇昆仑异常”，不过该地区冰川变化差异显著，尤其是大型表碛覆盖冰川，呈现与其他类型冰川明显的差异性响应，为理解喀喇昆仑冰川异常的机理，冰川尺度的详细变化研究十分必要。音苏盖提冰川位于喀喇昆仑山乔戈里峰北坡，是中国面积最大的冰川，是典型的大型表碛覆盖冰川。通过应用TanDEM-X/TerraSAR-X（2014年2月）与SRTM-X DEM（2000年2月）的差分干涉测量方法计算音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化，并结合冰川表面流速对冰川表面高程变化和跃动进行分析和讨论。结果表明：2000—2014年音苏盖提冰川表面高程平均下降了1.68±0.94 m，即冰川整体厚度在减薄，年变化率为-0.12±0.07 m·a^-1。冰川表面高程变化分布不均，其中南分支（S）冰流冰川整体减薄较为显著，冰川南分支冰流运动速度较快，前进/跃动的末端占据了冰川的主干，阻滞原主干冰川物质的向下运移（跃动），导致原主干冰舌表面高程上升；冰川厚度减薄随着海拔升高先下降后保持稳定，同时呈现一定的波动性；低海拔表碛区域消融大于裸冰区，可能存在较薄表碛，因热传导高、覆盖大量冰面湖塘和冰崖存在，加速了冰川消融；在坡度小于30 °的区域，冰川厚度减薄随着坡度的减小而加剧；坡向朝南冰川厚度略微增加（0.01 m），西南坡向冰川厚度略微减薄（-0.03 m），其他坡向冰川厚度减薄明显。近14 a来，表碛覆盖的音苏盖提冰川表面高程整体下降表明物质处于亏损状态，冰川跃动导致局部冰川表面高程的增加。     

近50 a来乌鲁木齐河源区径流变化及其机理研究

 乌鲁木齐河源区径流是供给中下游地区和乌鲁木齐市的重要水源。通过对河源区3个水文断面（1号冰川、空冰斗和总控）有观测记录以来的径流变化研究,一方面提供径流观测的最新资料,使人们对乌鲁木齐河源区径流近期变化有新的认识;另一方面通过对气候、冰川变化的综合分析,揭示乌鲁木齐河源区径流近50 a变化事实和可能的原因。结果表明：河源区3个水文断面径流自有观测记录以来整体上呈增加趋势,其中总控水文断面径流虽有增加,但不显著。影响3个水文断面径流变化的因素不同,1号冰川水文断面径流变化受控于冰川区热量条件,当消融期气温大于2 ℃时,径流呈加速增长。1号冰川径流不仅包含了冰川对气候变化的瞬时响应,也包含了冰川对气候变化的滞后响应,由冰川物质平衡和面积计算的冰川体积损失量变化较好地验证了径流变化。对于空冰斗融雪径流,降水量多寡是导致径流变化的主导因素,但冰斗区固态降水多,气温亦起着不可忽视的作用。总控水文断面径流大小与气温和降水关系比较复杂,表现为近年来气温和降水增加,径流却有下降趋势,这可能与河源区实际蒸散增强、冰川快速退缩导致径流峰值已经出现、大范围冻土消融导致的地下渗漏量增多等原因有关。     

A Small Glacier as an Index of Regional Mass Balance: Baby Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, 1959–1992

Baby Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, N.W.T., Canada is a small (0.6 km²), high-latitude (79°N), high-altitude (700–1200 m) glacier with a mass balance record extending from 1959–60 to the present. The record demonstrates shrinkage of the glacier, but a statistically significant trend is not evident. Correlations are strong between the mass balance of Baby Glacier and that of the nearby and much larger White Glacier, and also those of even larger, more distant glaciers. Thus programmes of measurement on small, simple ice bodies such as Baby Glacier can be representative of a large region. However, inter-annual changes are more accentuated for Baby Glacier. Baby Glacier does not meet all of the usual criteria for a representative glacier, but it straddles the regional equilibrium zone, a fact which helps to offset the disadvantages of its small size and limited altitudinal range. The equilibrium zone deserves to be an important focus for studies of high-arctic mass balance, with the aim of facilitating future measurement programmes which will rely on satellite remote sensing.