A STATISTICAL PROCEDURE TO EVALUATE CLEAN-UP STANDARDS

The object of this paper is to develop a suitable statistical procedure to evaluate clean-up standards athazardous waste sites.Under the assumptions that contaminant masses at a site follow a gammadistribution and that the data from the pre-remediation baseline sample as well as from the interim orfinal sample taken after a certain period of operation are both distributed as gamma with the same shapeparameter but different scale parameters,we derive a uniformly most powerful unbiased test of thehypothesis that a specified percentage of contaminant mass has been reduced.A large-sampleapproximation of the exact test procedure and a comparison with the likelihood ratio test are provided.     

Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene vegetation and climatic change of Tibetan Plateau

A synthesis of Holocene pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau shows the history of vegetation and climatic changes during the Holocene. Palynological evidences from 24 cores/sections have been compiled and show that the vegetation shifted from subalpine/alpine conifer forest to subalpine/alpine evergreen sclerophyllous forest in the southeastern part of the plateau; from alpine steppe to alpine desert in the central, western and northern part; and from alpine meadow to alpine steppe in the eastern and southern plateau regions during the Holocene. These records show that increases in precipitation began about 9 ka from the southeast, and a wide ranging level of increased humidity developed over the entire of the plateau around 8-7 ka, followed by aridity from 6 ka and a continuous drying over the plateau after 4-3 ka. The changes in Holocene climates of the plateau can be interpreted qualitatively as a response to orbital forcing and its secondary effects on the Indian Monsoon which expanded northwards     

我国医学生死亡教育实施及研究述评

The degree-day model is one important method to estimate glacier melt, which is based on the specific relationship between glacial melting and the sum of daily mean temperatures above the melting point. According to the observation data on the Koxkar Glacier(KG) from 2005 to 2010, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of degree-day factors(DDF) and its influential factors. The results indicate that the average value of DDF was 7.2~10.4 mm/(°C·d) on the KG from 2005 to 2010. It showed a decreasing trend between 3,700 m and 4,200 m, and the deceasing trend was more obvious in the upper part of the KG. On a spatial scale, the DDF increased evidently with increasing altitude. The DDF ranged from3.6 to 9.3 mm/(°C·d) at 3,700 m a.s.l., with the average value of 9.3 mm/(°C·d). It varied from 6.9 to 13.0 mm/(°C·d) at4,000 m a.s.l., with the average value of 10.2 mm/(°C·d). During the period of ablation, the fluctuation of DDF was not significant at the lower altitude(3,700 m a.s.l.), but it decreased at the higher altitudes(4,000 m a.s.l. and 4,200 m a.s.l.).The debris changes the transmission of heat, which accelerates the melting of a glacier; and the DDF showed high value.This paper will provide the reference for temporal–spatial parameterization schemes of DDF on Tuomuer glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.     

REAL-TIME FILTERING OF DATA FROM MOBILE,PASSIVE REMOTE INFRARED SENSORS WITH PRINCIPAL COMPONENT MODELS OF BACKGROUND

Real-time monitoring of pollutant levels from a mobile measuring platform requires fast,flexible dataanalysis methods.This paper reports a method for rapid analysis of passive remotely sensed infrared datawith the aid of a Kalman filter.The background spectra produced by emission from the atmosphere aremodelled at the start of the data collection sequence with a simple principal components model obtainedby eigenanalysis of the initial‘blank’data taken with the spectrometer.The species of interest areincluded in the state space model by a separate measurement of their infrared spectra.It is demonstratedthat for best filter performance in detecting the simulated pollutant species SF_6 in the atmosphere,a filtermodel with two principal components describing the emission background works best.The filter‘maps’of SF_6 closely follow the integrated spectral intensities measured after removal of suitable backgrounds.     

1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

Past Experience and the Present in the History of the Man and Nature Relationship in the Great Steppe

The considerable part of the Northern Asia is occupied with the steppe and forest-steppe landscapes stretched by a wide strip from Caspian Sea to mountains of Big Khingan.Archeologists claim, that from here on the Bering Bridge after a glacial age ancestors of American Indian tribes have left to the North America. In the Baikal Lake basin we find settlements of ancient Huns, subdued the Eastern and Western Europe in the beginning of last millennium.     

Hydrological Characteristics of the Heihe River Basin in the Arid Inland Area of Northwest China

The hydrological characteristics of the Heihe River Basin in the arid inland area of northwest China were investigated.The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in the basin indicates that it decreases from east to west and from south to north,and increases with elevation by a gradient of 24.4 mm per hundred meters below 2,810 m a.s.l.,but decreases with elevation by that of 37.0 mm per hundred meters above 2,810 m a.s.l.For the last 50 years,the mountain runoff of the ba-sin has a tendency of increase.Except in the mountain area,the aridity is very high in the basin,and the aridity index ranges from 1.6 to 7.0 at the piedmont,to 9.0～20.0 in the midstream area and up to 40.0 in the downstream Ejin region.It is estimated for the last 50 years that a 1oC increment of annual temperature causes a 21.5 mm increase of evaporation in the mountain area,and the equivalent reduction of mountain runoff is 0.215×109 m3/yr at the Yingluoxia Hydrometric Sta-tion.The estimation shows also that a 1oC increment of annual temperature causes 1,842 mm increase of farmland evapotranspiration in the midstream area,an equivalent of 0.298×109 m3/yr more water consumption.The anthropogenic influence on the hydrological processes and water resources is then discussed.     

Outflow of Pacific water from the Chukchi Sea to the Arctic Ocean

Pacific water exits the Chukchi Sea shelf through Barrow Canyon in the east and Herald Canyon in the west,forming an eastward-directed shelfbreak boundary current that flows into the Beaufort Sea.Here we summarize the transformation that the Pacific water undergoes in the two canyons,and describe the characteristics and variability of the resulting sbelfbreak jet,using recently collected summertime hydrographic data and a year-long mooring data set.In both canyons the northward-flowing Pacific winter water switches from the western to the eastern flank of the canyon,interacting with the northward-flowing summer water.In Barrow canyon the vorticity structure of the current is altered,while in Herald canyon a new water mass mode is created.In both instances hydraulic effects are believed to be partly responsible for the observed changes.The shelfbreak jet that forms from the canyon outflows has distinct seasonal configurations,from a bottom-intensified flow carrying cold,dense Pacific water in spring,to a surface-intensified current advecting warm,buoyant water in summer.The current also varies significantly on short timescales,from less than a day to a week.In fall and winter much of this mesoscale variability is driven by storm events,whose easterly winds reverse the current and cause upwelling.Different types of eddies are spawned from the current,which are characterized here using hydrographic and satellite data.     

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势(英文)

This study examines the hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020. Through analyzing the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, it predicts the variation trend for future flows. It is found that the annual mean flow showed a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of the Yellow River with quasi-periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a; the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon induced precipitation decrease, as well as evaporation increase and frozen soil degeneration in the scenario of global warming are the climate factors, which have caused flow decrease. Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of the Yellow River are likely to decrease generally in the next 20 years.     

Warming but not thawing of the cold permafrost in northern Alaska during the past 50 years

Climate warming has not resulted in measurable thawing of the cold (-5°C to -10°C) permafrost in northern Alaska during the last half century. The maximum depths of summer thaw at five locations near Barrow, Alaska, in 2005 were within the ranges of the depths obtained at those same locations during the early 1950s. However, there has been a net warming of about 2°C, after a cooling of 0.4°C during 1953-1960, at the upper depths of the permafrost column at two of the locations. Thawing of permafrost from above (increase in active layer thickness) is determined by the summer thawing index for the specific year; any warming, or cooling, of the upper permafrost column results from the cumulative effect of changes in the average annual air temperatures over a period of years, assuming no change in surface conditions. Theoretically, thawing from the base of permafrost should be negligible even in areas of thin (about 100-200 m) permafrost in northern Alaska. The reported shoreline erosion along the northern Alaska coast is a secondary result from changes in the adjacent ocean ice coverage during the fall stormy period, and is not directly because of any "thawing" of the permafrost.     

RAPID ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF COELUTING COMPONENTS IN LIQUID CHROMATOGRAPHY BY FACTOR ANALYSIS

Evaluation of the results of factor analysis of sets of spectroscopically detected chromatograms is carriedout by examining the shapes of the abstract factors.This is done either by visual inspection or by analysisof the power density spectra produced from them.Owing to constraints imposed by the column functionand the spectroscopic instrument function,the information content of the chromatograms necessarilyoccurs at low spatial frequencies.As a consequence,it appears as relatively broad features in the abstractchromatograms and as a peak in the low-frequency region of the corresponding power density plot.Onthe basis of examination of the power density distribution,a well-defined distinction is made betweenprimary and secondary abstract factors.The major uncertainty encountered in determining the numberof chemical components appears to arise from effects of contaminants in reagents.     

Responses to climate warming of hydrological processes in the upper Kelan River in the Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Kelan River is a branch of the Ertix River, originating in the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China. The upper streams of the Kelan River are located on the southern slope of the Altay Mountains; they arise from small glacial lakes at an elevation of more than 2,500 m. The total water-collection area of the studied basin, from 988 to 3,480 m, is about 1,655 km2. Almost 95 percent of the basin area is covered with snow in winter. The westerly air masses deplete nearly all the moisture that comes in the form of snow during the winter months in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. That annual flow from the basin is about 382 mm, about 45 percent of which is contributed by snowmelt. The mean annual precipitation in the basin is about 620 mm, which is primarily concentrated in the upper and middle basin. The Kelan River system could be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snowmelt runoff. The hydrological system could be altered significantly because of a warming of the climate. The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and events would pose an additional threat to the Altay region. The Kelan River, a typical snow-dominated watershed, has more area at higher elevations and accumulates snow during the winter. The peak flow occurs as a result of snow-melting during the late spring or early summer. Stream flow varies strongly throughout the year because of seasonal cycles of precipitation, snowpack, temperature, and groundwater. Changes in the temperature and precipitation affect the timing and volume of stream-flow. The stream-flow consists of contributions from meltwater of snow and ice and from runoff of rainfall. Therefore, it has low flow in winter, high flow during the spring and early summer as the snowpack melts, and less flows during the late summer. Because of the warming of the current climate change, hydrology processes of the Kelan River have undergone marked changes, as evidenced by the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from May to June     

A study on the development trends of tourist marketing policies in the 21~(ST) century

Tourism of China in the 21st century is facing opportunities and challenges never encountering before. On the one hand, Chinese tourism has achieved historic progress from nothing to something, from small to big and from weak to strong following the development experience of reform and opening to the outside world over the past 20 years, which has carried into execution of development strategies from a big tourist country in Asia to a strong tourist country in the world[1]. In the first 20 ye…     

探索国家公园体系的多元化世界——全球背景里的中国前景(英文)

A single nomenclature for national park terminology has evolved into a massive global data network from information gathered together from the past 140 years.This has been created using the most recent UNEP-WDPA data and its 98483 national designation records from 192 countries,two other customized databases accommodating 2638 records of officially designated national parks from 184 jurisdictions around the globe,and 2064 records of extended Chinese national park sites.However,mushrooming designations and growing databases are posing significant challenges even though the IUCN and UNEP have both devoted efforts to build and promote a common language called the "System of Management Categories for Protected Areas".Thus conversely the best possible outcome and the worst confusion might have originated from the same objective that is known by the simple moniker as a national park.This is why much more work needs to be done to enhance communication among different stakeholders from the world.In this paper,the authors are intending to demonstrate that China’s government agencies should boost a dialogue with the UNEP-WDPA operating staff in order that the current innovative national park programs are recognized by the global community.Meanwhile,the authors also recommend that IUCN needs to revise and refresh the current protected area classification system for the purpose of effectively servicing the diverse stakeholders in such a diversified world of national park systems around the globe.     

The impacts of climate change on hydrology in a typical glacier region—A case study in Hailuo Creek watershed of Mt. Gongga in China

The glaciers of the Hengduan Mountains play an important role in the hydrology processes of this region. In this study, the HBV Light model, which relies on a degree-day model to simulate glacier melting, was employed to simulate both glacier runoff and total runoff. The daily temperature and precipitation at the Hailuo Creek No. 1 Glacier from 1952 to 2009 were obtained from daily meteorological observed data at the glacier and from six national meteorological stations near the Hailuo Creek Basin. The daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth, and monthly potential evaporation in 1995, 1996, and 2002 were used to obtain a set of optimal parameters, and the annual total runoff and glacier runoff of the Hailuo Creek Glacier(1952–2009) were calculated using the HBV Light model. Results showed the average annual runoff in the Hailuo Creek Basin was 2,114 mm from 1952 to 2009, of which glacial melting accounted for about 1,078 mm. The river runoff in the Hailuo Creek catchment increased as a result of increased glacier runoff. Glacier runoff accounted for 51.1% of the Hailuo Creek stream flow in 1994 and increased to 72.6% in 2006. About 95% of the increased stream flow derived from the increased glacier runoff.     

山西省煤炭区域流动的环境负担转移效应(英文)

For the low price of coal and ineffective environmental management in mining area, China is in the dilemma of the increasing coal demand and the serious environmental issues in mining area. The more coal that is exported from a region, the more heavily it suffers from the environmental impacts of coal export. In this paper, the temporal and spatial process of exporting coal from Shanxi to other provinces of China is traced between 1975 and 2005. The coal net export of Shanxi increased to 370.69 million tonnes in 2005, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.5% from 1975 to 2005. With the increase of the amount of coal export from Shanxi, the Environmental Loads Transfer (ELT) that import provinces input to mining areas of Shanxi are rising. Effective means of internalizing the environmental externality of ELT lie in: 1) setting up a coal sustainable development fund to restore environment of coal mining area; 2) enforcing environment tax, financial transfer payment and transferring advantage technology of pollution reduction to coal export area; and 3) reducing coal regional flow by reducing coal demand from power generation and heating and other industries.     

Variation of Stable Isotopes in Surface Snow along a Traverse from Coast to Plateau’s interior in East Antarctica and Its Climatic Significance

The variations of stable water isotopes of surface snow in east Antarctic Ice Sheet, are discussed by a total of 251 samples, which were taken along a 330 km traverse from Zhongshan Station to the outer edge of the Antarctic plateau and from four snow pits excavated along the route. Analyzing results of the samples showed the expected linear relationship between the parameters ?D and ?18O with slope S1 and intercept d1. When the data set was examined using a sliding window with a width of 5 samples, it was found that there were two areas with different ratios of S1 and d1. The boundary between these two areas occurred at an elevation of about 2,000 m, suggesting two different sources of water vapour. Nearly half (47%) of the fresh-snow samples had negative deuterium excess (d=?D? 8?18O) values, but few of the snow pit samples did, suggesting that variations of ? are quickly smoothed by isotopic diffusion in the near-surface firn. Analysis of the phase relationship between ?D and deuterium excess in the snow pit stratigraphies showed that they were mostly in phase from Jan. 1994 to Sept. 1995, but mostly out of phase from Sept. 1995 to Jan. 1997.     

黄河源区水资源变化及其影响因子

Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing trends of surface water resources, climate and frozen ground and reveals their causes. Results show that there exist frequent fluctuations from high to low water flow in the 51-year period. In general, the discharge has shown a de- clining trend in the 51 years especially since the 1990s. The annual distribution shows one peak which, year on year is getting smaller. （1） Precipitation has a significant and sustained influence on discharge. （2） A sharp rise of temperature resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge, which has a greater effect than on ice-snow melting. （3） Frozen ground tends to be degraded markedly. There is a significant positive correlation be- tween the permafrost thickness and the discharge. （4） Evaporation rates are significantly increasing, leading to the decrease of discharge. 70% of the discharge reduction resulted from climate change, and the remaining 30% may have been caused by human activities.     

PSEUDOINVERSE DETERMINATION OF THE CIRCULATION IN PRYDZ BAY AND ITS ADJACENT OPEN OCEAN, ANTARCTICA

An inverse model is used to infer the circulation in Prydz Bay and its adjacent open ocean using hydrographic data obtained by the cruise of the 7th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-7), 1990/91. Barotropie components are found to be strong in the study area, esp. at the Antarctic Divergence, and from a whole view, the velocity is rather small. In the open ocean, the flow is quasizonal, but outside the bay it shows a tendency of pressing onto the shelf from surface to bottom, and a feature of intensification just east of Fram Bank. We suggest here be the most important place to detect the possibility of the Antarctic Bottom Water formation. The meridional profiles of the distribution indicate a strong (relative to the ambient) core and a slope-trapped part into the bargain. In the southeastern part of the bay, there seems to exist a strong coastal current flowing westward. The computed upwelling centers are mainly situated in the west of the study region, as agrees quite well with     

A TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION

Partial least squares (PLS) regression is a commonly used statistical technique for performingmultivariate calibration, especially in situations where there are more variables than samples. Choosingthe number of factors to include in a model is a decision that all users of PLS must make, but iscomplicated by the large number of empirical tests available. In most instances predictive ability is themost desired property of a PLS model and so interest has centred on making this choice based on aninternal validation process. A popular approach is the calculation of a cross-validated r~2 to gauge howmuch variance in the dependent variable can be explained from leave-one-out predictions. Using MonteCarlo simulations for different sizes of data set, the influence of chance effects on the cross-validationprocess is investigated. The results are presented as tables of critical values which are compared againstthe values of cross-validated r~2 obtained from the user's own data set. This gives a formal test forpredictive ability of a PLS model with a given number of dimensions.