辽宁省生态足迹地理分布及其可持续发展分析

This paper presents the detailed results and analyses on the ecological footprints and bio-capacities of the individual cities and the province as a whole for the year 2001, providing a clear picture of sustainability for the province. Results show that the ecological footprints of most cities in Liaoning exceeded their respective bio-capacities, incurring high ecological deficits. The ecological deficit of the province as a whole was 1.31 ha/cap. Those cities with resources extraction and/or primary material-making as their major industries constitute the “ecologically black band“, whose ecological deficits ranged from 2.45 to 5.23 ha/cap, the highest of all cities in the province. Fossil energy consumption was the major source of footprint amounting to 1.63 ha/cap at the provincial level,taking up 67.3% of the total. For cropland, modest ecological surpluses occurred in Jinzhou, Tiding,Huludao, and Panjin while modest ecological deficits in Dalian, Benxi, Fushun, and Dandong, resulting in an overall surplus for the province. Liaoning had a certain level of surplus in fishing ground (water area), mainly distributed in the coastal cities of Dalian, Panjin, Huludao, Yingkou, Jinzhou, and Dandong. Most cities had a small ecological deficit in pasture and all had a small ecological surplus in forest. The eco-efficiency, expressed as GDP value per hectare of footprint, exhibits high variations among the cities, with the highest (Shenyang) more than 10 times the lowest (Fuxin). Cities with manufacture, high-tech, and better developed service industries had high eco-efficiency, while those with resources extraction, primary material-making, and less developed service industries had low eco-efficiency. Based on the components and geographical distribution of ecological footprint, strategic policy implications are outlined for Liaoning‘s development toward a sustainable future.     

The calculation and analysis of ecological footprints,diversity and development capacity of China

The ecological footprint of China’s provinces is calculated in this paper.In general,China’s development is not sustainable because its ecological footprint is beyond its bio-capacity.The sustainability status of each province in China is presented.Ulanowicz’s developmnt capacity formula was introduced to discuss th relation ship of development and ecological footprint’s diversity.The diversity of ecological impacts is related to the efficiency with which an economy uses the source and sink services of the environment and,in this efficiency with which an economy uses the source and sink services of the environment and ,in this view,should be a factor in economic output.Development capacity,calculated from the ecological footprint and its diversity,is used to examine the relationship o economic output with the structure of the ecological footprint.China and its provinces are presented as a case study to investigate this relationship.The analysis shows that footprint capacity is significant in prdicting economic output.Increasing the ecological footprint’s diversity is presented as another way to increase development capacity.     

Separating the effects of two dimensions on ecosystem services: Environmental variables and net trade-offs

Spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem services(ESs) are driven by two types of factors: environmental factors and trade-offs/synergies between services. In the ecological conservation red line(ECRL) area, in which national ecological security and social sustainable development are guaranteed, it is particularly important to clarify the driving mechanism of ESs for the management of ecosystems. In this study, soil conservation, water yield, and carbon sequestration in Beijing’s ECRL area are ...     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian'an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors.　(3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening of landscape suitability.     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian＇an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian‘an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian‘an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening, of landscaoe suitability.     

Urban carbon footprint and carbon cycle pressure: The case study of Nanjing简

Urban carbon footprint reflects the impact and pressure of human activities on ur- ban environment. Based on city level, this paper estimated carbon emissions and carbon footprint of Nanjing city, analyzed urban carbon footprint intensity and carbon cycle pressure and discussed the influencing factors of carbon footprint through LMDI decomposition model. The main conclusions are as follows： （1） The total carbon emissions of Nanjing increased rapidly since 2000, in which the carbon emission from the use of fossil energy was the largest Meanwhile, carbon sinks of Nanjing presented a declining trend since 2000, which caused the decrease of carbon compensation rate and the increase of urban carbon cycle pressure. （2） The total carbon footprint of Nanjing increased rapidly since 2000, and the carbon deficit was more than ten times of total land areas of Nanjing in 2009, which means Nanjing confronted high carbon cycle pressure. （3） Generally, carbon footprint intensity of Nanjing was on de- crease and the carbon footprint productivity was on increase. This indicated that energy utilization rate and carbon efficiency of Nanjing was improved since 2000, and the policy for energy conservation and emission reduction taken by Nanjing＇s government received better effects. （4） Economic development, population and industrial structure are promoting factors for the increase of carbon footprint of Nanjing, while the industrial carbon footprint intensity was inhibitory factor. （5） Several countermeasures should be taken to decrease urban carbon footprint and alleviate carbon cycle pressure, such as： improvement of the energy efficiency, industrial structure reconstruction, afforestation and environmental protection and land use control. Generally, transition to low-carbon economy is essential for Chinese cities to realize sustainable development in the future.     

Integrating the ecosystem service in sustainable plateau spatial planning: A case study of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB) is a key ecological protection area on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP). Determination of the ecosystem service values(ESVs) can help recognize the benefits of sustainable management. It is gradually becoming the main path that constructs plateau spatial planning of integrating ecological protection, and achieves global sustainable development goals(SDGs) in China. In this paper, the spatio-temporal dynamic evolutions of the ESVs were estimated on the multiple scales of "basin, subbasin and watershed" from 1980 to 2015. The main factors influencing ESVs were explored in terms of physical geography, human activities, and climate change. It had been proposed that sustainable spatial planning including ecological protection, basin management, and regional development was urgent to set up. Our results show that the increase in wetland and forest and results in an increase of 9.4% in the ESVs. Attention should be paid to the reduction of water and grassland. Water conservation(WC), waste treatment(WT), and soil formation and conservation(SFC) are the most important ecosystem services in the YZRB. At present, the primary problem is to solve the ESVs decreasing caused by glacier melting, grassland degradation, and desertification in the upper reaches region. The middle reaches should raise the level of supply services. Regulation services should be increased in the lower reaches region on the premise of protecting vegetation. The ESVs in adjacent watersheds are interrelated and the phenomenon of "high agglomeration and low agglomeration" is obvious, existing hot-spots and cold-spots of ESVs. Additionally, when the altitude is 4500-5500 m, the temperature is 3-8°C, and the annual precipitation is 350-650 mm, ESVs could reach its maximum. A framework of sustainable plateau spatial planning could provide references to delimit the ecological protection red line, key ecological function zone, and natural resource asset accounting on the QTP.     

2000–2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素分析(英文)

Studying the change in population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. The spatial patterns and driving factors of the change in population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study firstly analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the change in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square(PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant factors(among 11 natural and social-economic factors) impacting population density change for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that:(1) compared to the population density in 2000, in 2010, the population density in most of the counties(over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km2 on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km2. Of all the 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively showed rapid and slow increase in population density, while 458 and 446 counties showed slow and rapid decrease in population density, respectively.(2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors impacted population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were the main pull factors of population increase. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decrease. These conclusions clarified the spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide helpful reference for the future population planning.     

中国山区农村土地利用转型及其对土地整治的政策启示（英文）

The cultivation of mountainous land results in water loss and soil erosion. With rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, labor emigration relieves the cultivation of mountainous areas in regions with high poverty and leads to a significant land use transition. This research built an analysis framework for "land use transition – driving mechanism – effects –responses" for mountainous areas of China undergoing land use transition and then proposed the direction of mountainous land consolidation. The results showed that the turning point of land use morphology was the core of rural land use transition in mountainous areas. The expansion of cropland and the contraction of forestland have transitioned to the abandonment of cropland and the expansion of forestland; this transition was the main characteristic of the dominant land use change. Land marginalization and land ecological functional recovery were the main characteristics of the recessive land use transition in mountainous areas. Socioeconomic factors were the primary driving forces during land use transition in mountainous areas, with labor emigration being the most direct force. The rising costs of farming and the challenging living conditions causing labor emigration were fundamental driving forces. Rural land use transition in mountainous areas reduced the vulnerability of the ecological function of land ecosystems. The advantages and disadvantages of the socioeconomic effects should focus on rural development of mountainous areas as well as the livelihood of farmers; this should be further supported by empirical and quantitative research. Rural land use transition of mountainous areas improves natural restoration and is related to socioeconomic development. Rural land consolidation of mountainous areas should conform to land use transition,with the goal of shifting from the increase of cultivated land to the synergies of ecological and environmental protection.     

环京津贫困带土地利用变化多情景模拟与景观格局动态变化——以河北省张家口市为例（英文）

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios–namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989–2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989–2000 to 3.96% during 2000–2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989–2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.     

1949—2007年新疆绿洲经济分布格局演变及其机制研究

以新疆绿洲经济空间分布为研究对象,以1949—2007年87个县市人均GDP数据为资料,运用空间概率模型和ArcGIS技术,分析了1949—1978年、1978—1990年、1990—2007年3个阶段新疆绿洲经济分布格局时空演变规律。首先根据人均GDP,把全疆县市分为高水平、中高水平、中低水平和低水平4类经济发展类型,运用马尔科夫链转移矩阵求出新疆各县市在3个阶段转移概率,用ArcGIS把3个阶段空间转移格局可视化。其次构建空间马尔科夫链,分析不同背景区域对4类经济发展类型空间转移的作用,探讨其作用机理。研究发现:①1949—2007年间,以县市为单位的新疆绿洲经济格局空间分布发生了“俱乐部趋同”现象,其中高水平和低水平经济发展类型非常明显,主要动力是新疆绿洲主导经济由原来的农牧业转变成以资源加工为主的第二产业和以行政、交通为主的第三产业。②4类经济发展类型在3个阶段转移方向不同,计划经济期间表现出中低水平经济发展类型向上转移,区域均衡发展政策起到强大作用。在市场经济阶段,经济发展水平相似区域倾向于“俱乐部趋同”,市场“极化”作用明显。区域转移强度不同,相邻层次水平区域转移明显,“跨层次”转移较弱。③绿洲背景区域作用具有选择性和时效性,在计划经济时期,区域背景对高水平、中高水平、中低水平和低水平区域保持原状态起到阻碍作用,而在市场经济时期,对高水平、低水平区域保持原水平起到推动作用,其他规律性不明显。④绿洲经济低水平经济发展类型转移较小,稳定性强,“负马太效应”显著;高水平经济发展类型稳定性差,在不同阶段均发生15%左右的向下转移,表现出经济的脆弱性和低级性。     

湖南省区域经济综合发展水平动态变化研究

文章运用创新的主成分分析方法构建测度模型,对湖南省的14个地区进行了区域经济发展水平的动态测算。在研究的时间段中,湖南省的区域经济发展水平都有不同程度的增长,但是增长的幅度有较大的差异。导致区域经济的地区绝对差异拉大,而相对差异有所缩小。经济发展水平的增长能力差异是影响地区经济发展水平动态变化的主要因素。     

基于投影寻踪模型的河南县域交通与经济协调性评价

通过建构县域交通优势度与经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,运用投影寻踪模型对2003 年和2008 年河南省各县域单元的交通优势度和经济发展水平进行综合评价与比较。进而采用耦合协调度模型对河南县域交通优势度与区域经济发展水平的耦合协调性进行评价、比较与分类。研究表明,2003-2008 年期间河南省各县市交通优势度与经济发展水平均获得了较大幅度的提升,但区域分异现象还较为突出。县域交通优势度由2003 年的沿主要交通干线带状分布向团块状连片分布态势演进,中原城市群地区县市交通优势度高于外围地区,平原地区县市交通优势度高于山区县市;而县域经济综合发展水平西部普遍高于东部,山区资源县市高于平原农业县市。交通优势度与县域经济耦合作用强度普遍较高,并呈明显的增强态势,但多数地区交通与经济的协调发展度还有待提升,大多数县市交通发展水平超前于经济发展水平。因此,如何在既有的交通优势条件下推进河南县域经济的快速发展,是实现河南交通与经济协调发展的关键问题。     

和田地区人口与经济发展时空演变与分布差异研究

以和田地区七县一市作为研究基本单元,根据1995-2014 年人口、GDP和人均GDP面板数据分析了其人口与经济发展演变特征,通过人口经济一致性指数、偏离度指数和Pearson 相关系数探讨了和田地区人口经济分布的差异性,研究发现：近20 a 来和田地区人口和经济快速增长,各县市人口数量和经济发展差异很大;人口集聚与经济集聚水平差异较大并呈现扩大趋势,总体上东部地区人口集聚低于经济集聚,中部地区人口经济集聚基本一致,西部地区人口集聚高于经济集聚;人口分布与经济发展空间一致性总体呈变弱的趋势,人口经济分布差异的变大与地区经济差距的变大有非常高的相关性;地区的自然环境条件和社会经济发展条件是造成和田人口和经济分布差异性的主要原因。     

Effect of marine economic development pilot policies on regional economic resilience: Based on quasi-natural experiments from coastal areas in China北大核心CSCD

为了推动陆海统筹,转变和优化临海产业布局,制定和完善海洋开发政策与体制建设,推进海洋经济发展和海洋强国战略,提高沿海区域经济发展韧性水平,中国自2011年以来先后启动海洋经济发展试点工作。旅游业是中国沿海区域经济的重要组成部分。论文以海洋经济发展试点政策作为准自然实验,基于2007—2020年中国沿海地区各地级及以上城市的面板数据,运用多期双重差分模型,总结和评估该试点政策对区域经济韧性及旅游经济韧性的影响。结果表明:海洋经济发展试点政策的实施能够显著推动区域经济韧性及旅游经济韧性的提升;而新冠疫情事件作为调节变量,削弱了海洋经济发展试点政策对区域经济韧性的影响。在区域异质性上,海洋经济发展试点对中南沿海地区经济韧性的政策效应最明显,而对华东沿海地区旅游经济韧性的政策效应则更为显著。鉴于此,合理扩大海洋经济发展试点,因地制宜规划沿海区域经济体系,对防范系统性风险、提高区域经济韧性及旅游经济韧性具有重要意义。     

新疆城镇化与经济发展耦合协调关系研究

构建由41个三级指标组成的城镇化与经济发展的综合评价指标体系,通过熵值法计算城镇化与经济发展各子系统指标的权重以及两大系统的综合发展水平指数,并使用耦合协调度模型分析新疆经济发展与城镇化系统耦合协调度在1990—2014年间的演变情况。研究结果表明:经济发展系统中经济规模和经济质量的权重高于经济结构;城镇化系统中土地城镇化和人口城镇化的权重明显高于产业城镇化、生活城镇化和生态城镇化。1990—2014年新疆经济发展和城镇化关系经历了从低度耦合到中度耦合再到高度耦合3个阶段。     

产业集群与日本区域经济发展及其对中国东北区的启示

分析了日本区域经济发展的基本态势,得出日本区域经济仍具有非均衡发展的特点,用传统经济地理学对日本区域经济非均衡发展作出了解释;然后运用新经济地理学的产业集群理论,分析了日本产业集群的发展特点,探讨了产业集群的发展机制,提出了日本产业集群的发展状况与区域经济非均衡发展关系十分密切的结论。最后,从培育产业集群的角度,探讨了促进中国东北区产业集群发展,推动东北区区域经济发展的途径。     

基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究

选择自回归移动平均模型（ARMA）,对沈阳经济区2009~2015年经济、环境指标进行了短期预测,并选择耦合协调度模型模拟了该区经济与环境协调发展的耦合作用关系。预测结果表明,ARMA模型预测误差相对较小,预测效果良好。沈阳经济区经济类指标总体呈现不断增长的趋势;各环境类指标,原正向指标（指标越大越好）均有不同程度增长,原负向指标（指标越小越好）则有不同程度的下降。但是沈阳经济区的经济与环境耦合度自2010年开始呈现下降趋势,即仍然存在着经济发展与环境恶化之间的矛盾,说明经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾总是处于由缓和向尖锐的循环发展过程。     

长江三角洲城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合关系

本文利用DEA模型、层次分析法和耦合度模型分析了1980-2010 年长江三角洲16 个地级市的城市化效率、经济发展水平, 以及城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合度, 并对其耦合关系进行了理论初探, 提出了概念模型。结果表明:① 30 年间, 长三角城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合度总体经历了缓慢上升—急剧上升—缓慢下降—急剧下降的过程, 呈倒“U”型发展;② 不同发展阶段的经济发展水平和城市化效率耦合关系不同, 在一定时期, 提高城市化效率可以提升区域经济发展水平, 区域经济水平的发展也可提高城市化效率;但当城市化效率和经济发展达到一定的水平时, 城市化效率的提高不再成为提升区域经济发展水平的重要因素, 而区域经济发展水平的提升也不会过多地影响城市化效率;③ 城市化效率与经济发展水平存在动态耦合关系, 经济发展水平较高的城市会首先摆脱城市化效率带来的促进作用。     

中国科技金融与区域经济发展的耦合关系研究

以中国30个省市为研究目标,建立科技金融与区域经济发展耦合系统的综合评价指标体系,基于灰色关联方法（GRA）,定量评判2005-2015年2系统各要素间的耦合关联程度。在此基础上,构建耦合度、耦合协调度模型,对科技金融与区域经济发展耦合协调类型进行划分,研究其时空耦合特征。结果表明：科技金融与区域经济发展属于中高等关联,科技型人才与财政科技拨款对区域经济发展的驱动作用明显,科技金融对进出口贸易具有高度的依赖性;研究期内,科技金融与区域经济发展的耦合关系先后经历了波动上升、持续下降、再缓慢上升的过程;科技金融与区域经济发展耦合协调度处在初级协调阶段,表现出明显的区域间差异,具有“沿海-长江经济带-内陆”3级阶梯递减的变化规律,呈现出东部高西部低、中部高南北低的空间格局。