和田地区人口与经济发展时空演变与分布差异研究

以和田地区七县一市作为研究基本单元，根据1995-2014 年人口、GDP和人均GDP面板数据分析了其人口与经济发展演变特征，通过人口经济一致性指数、偏离度指数和Pearson 相关系数探讨了和田地区人口经济分布的差异性，研究发现：近20 a 来和田地区人口和经济快速增长，各县市人口数量和经济发展差异很大；人口集聚与经济集聚水平差异较大并呈现扩大趋势，总体上东部地区人口集聚低于经济集聚，中部地区人口经济集聚基本一致，西部地区人口集聚高于经济集聚；人口分布与经济发展空间一致性总体呈变弱的趋势，人口经济分布差异的变大与地区经济差距的变大有非常高的相关性；地区的自然环境条件和社会经济发展条件是造成和田人口和经济分布差异性的主要原因。

Space-time evolution and distribution disparities of population and economic development in Hotan Prefecture

Population distribution is closely related to the social and economic development of regions and countries. It is meaningful to reveal population and economic spatial pattern,promote coordinate development of population and economy by studying on the relationship between them. Based on studies in Hotan Prefecture,Xinjiang, China,this paper revealed the characteristics of population and economic development in Hotan and evaluated the spatial difference of population distribution and economic development,which could provide support for relevant departments to formulate population development policies and optimize the distribution pattern between population and economy. Moreover,it could provide a reference for the research on population and economy in the poor areas. Firstly,the spatial pattern of population and economy of Hotan was analyzed with the population, GDP and per capita GDP panel data during 1995-2014. Then distribution disparities of population and economic development were studied with population economic consistency index,consistency deviation index and the Pearson correlation coefficient and the main reasons for the disparities were given. The results showed as follows: the population and economy grew rapidly in the past twenty years and the economic disparities kept expanding in Hotan. There were big differences between population and economic development in different units. The population agglomeration and economic agglomeration level is very different in different units and it was increasing. The coordination between the distribution of the population and economic development changed from good to weak since 1995. According to the population-economy consistency index,there were three types of consistency in Hotan. On the whole,the agglomeration level of population was lower than that of economy in the eastern region, mainly including Minfeng County;the agglomeration level of population was almost the same as that of economy in central region,including counties of Cele,Luopu,Yutian and Hotan;and the agglomeration level of population was higher than that of economy in the western region,including Moyu and Pishan County. In addition,the population concentration was lower than the economic agglomeration of Hotan City. The population-economy consistency was becoming worse revealed by the consistency deviation index and the distribution disparities of population and economic development in Hotan was increasing. There was high correlation between the distribution disparities of population-economy and economic development difference according the Pearson correlation coefficient. The distribution disparities of population and economy were caused mainly by environmental conditions and socio-economic development conditions in Hotan Prefecture. In the end,some suggestions to promote coordinated development of population and economy in Hotan were proposed. Various development strategies should be implemented according to the situation of population and economic development of different units. What's more,more attentions should be focused on industry assistance when other cities and provinces of east China have been supporting and helping Hotan. At the same time,it is essential to attach importance to environmental protection for every unit of Hotan to promote the coordinated development of society,economy,ecology and environment.