高速铁路情景下的俄罗斯远东铁路可达性及其空间效应研究

以俄罗斯远东联邦区的布拉戈维申斯克—符拉迪沃斯托克(布符)沿边铁路为研究对象,在高速铁路情景下,利用可达性指标测度高铁运行前(普铁)后(高铁)沿线节点的可达性动态变化,探讨该线路升级提速后对沿线各个节点的贡献作用与空间效应。研究表明：未来布符高铁的建设运营使其沿线可达性得到大幅提升,时空收敛获益多,8 h交流圈覆盖全线,可达性最优要素由末端城市(符拉迪沃斯托克)向线路中间城市(哈巴罗夫斯克)自南向北、继而向首端城市(布拉戈维申斯克)自东向西扩散,呈布符铁路首末可达性改善幅度大、部分中间线路可达性改善稍弱的空间特征。可达性的变化加速远东的西南沿边地区空间格局的演变与重塑,布符沿边高铁集散场的空间延拓、袭夺态势加剧;铁路轴带的空间极化加深,呈现新的“核心—边缘”格局;跨城流动性突显,加速空间对接与同城空间发展模式。     

21世纪以来俄罗斯人口增长与空间分布格局变化

在“一带一路”与“中蒙俄经济走廊”倡议的背景下,利用人口增减变化率、人口重心、人口密度变化率、人口地理集中度、人口商度等研究21世纪以来俄罗斯的人口增长与空间分布格局变化。结果表明：（1）21世纪以来,俄罗斯人口经历了先降后增的变化过程;中央区的人口显著上升,伏尔加、西伯利亚与远东区均呈下降趋势;莫斯科、圣彼得堡、乌拉尔区、北高加索区南端的联邦主体人口快速增加,西伯利亚区多数联邦主体人口缓慢增加,远东东部、莫斯科外围地域、伏尔加区多数联邦主体的人口缓慢减少,西北区北端联邦主体的人口急剧减少。（2）俄人口空间分布格局变化主要受地区间人口迁移流动的影响。空间上,俄人口重心不断朝西北向迁移,莫斯科市与圣彼得堡市的人口密度快速增加,远东与东西伯利亚区的人口密度缓慢降低,强化了俄人口分界线——“圣彼得堡-图瓦线”。以“圣图线”为界,俄“西密东疏”“欧洲密、亚洲疏”的格局短期不会改变,整体呈“一横、四纵、两团”及若干区域人口集团的空间结构。     

基于日流量视角的俄罗斯首府城市铁路客运网络空间特征

构建俄罗斯81×81的首府城市的日铁路客运流量矩阵,基于社会网络分析研究其铁路客运网络特征,结果表明：① 俄罗斯首府铁路客运网络松散且不均衡,西密东疏,高、中密度联系的城市位于中央联邦区与西伯利亚铁路沿线,俄欧洲北部、欧洲南部、亚洲等3个铁路区系内包含不同的子群与核心。② 日铁路客运流量表现出沿西伯利亚铁路的“廊道型”向南北两侧逐渐递减弱化的“非对称性”空间态势,西伯利亚铁路内部初步形成以莫斯科、叶卡捷琳堡-彼尔姆-秋明、鄂木斯克、新西伯利亚为核心及其外围地区的次一级“核心-边缘”格局。③ 俄人口分界线——“圣图线”西南侧城市的铁路要素集散能力、铁路联系强度、对其他节点控制程度均强于东北侧城市。     

俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东联邦区首府的空间经济联系与格局特征研究

利用经济等级指数、经济联系强度研究2010—2018年俄罗斯西伯利亚和远东联邦区首府的空间经济联系与格局特征,在此基础上,分析西伯利亚和远东区各联邦主体、及与毗邻中国东北省域的经济联系,结果表明：① 西伯利亚和远东区首府的经济等级2010—2015年上升显著,2015—2018年上升缓慢,等级序列存在“断裂”现象,繁荣的发达首府与停滞的偏远首府两极分化现象突出。② 西伯利亚和远东区首府经济联系量不断增强,以乌兰乌德市为分界的西伯利亚区首府经济联系强于远东区首府,呈“西高东低”的格局特征。西伯利亚区形成以新西伯利亚市为极核,辐射克拉斯诺亚尔斯克市、鄂木斯克市、托木斯克市等的“一极、多心组团”格局,首位经济联系为新西伯利亚市;远东区呈现以哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）市、符拉迪沃斯托克（海参崴）市为中心的“双核”格局,首位经济联系为哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）市。③ 西伯利亚和远东区联邦主体间经济联系不断提升,同中国东北省域的经济联系也不断增强,其中滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区、阿穆尔州同中国东北省域的经济联系最强,与黑龙江省的经济联系量高于吉林省和辽宁省。     

俄罗斯吸引外资评述

俄罗斯联邦独立以来,出现社会、经济、金融总危机,其投资环境欠佳。欧盟和美国等西方发达国家对俄罗斯进行了大量投资,对俄罗斯经济产生双重影响。本文对俄罗斯引进和利用外资的现状特征及其影响、投资环境以及吸引外资的新举措等问题进行了探讨和评述。     

Economic-geographical problems of hunting nature management of Siberia

The technique for socioeconomic assessment of the social implication of game husbandry (SIGH) in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) as a whole, and in separate regions has been tested. We provide the algorithm for calculating SIGH that implies combining the most important ten effectiveness measures of game management. Regional indicators of SIGH are compared with volumes of agricultural production. The constituent entities of the SFD are shown, in which the size of SIGH predominates over the respective coefficient of agriculture. We identified the main factor for change in the population dynamics of ungulate animals which has a social, rather than a biological, origin. Emphasis is placed on a number of currently important problems in hunting nature management: the disproportion of the consumer demand toward a single kind of fur raw materials and no demand for most of the other kinds, and low profitability of the fur product. The constituent entities of the SFD are ranked according to the socioeconomic significance of game husbandry. An analysis is made of the dynamics of supplies of fur products and fur market performance. For the first time, we have shown the minimum allowable magnitude of value of SIGH for separate regions of the SFD. We determined the tendency for a steady increase in SIGH in accordance with different socioeconomic phenomena. The findings suggest the conclusion that the issues of s further development of game husbandry are to be dealt with at the governmental level.     

Coastal-marine nature management in Pacific Russia and Northern Vietnam: Notions,structural features,and types

Coastal-marine nature management is treated as a spatiotemporal structure consisting of two interrelated components: the coastal territorial component occurring in the coastal territory, and the coastal aquatic component occurring within the coastal aquatic area as well as the sea shores connecting them. The study revealed the components of the main and concomitant uses of natural resources which have evolved directly across the land and sea areas of mining of separate kinds of natural resources and having technogenic impacts on them. From a combination of natural resources as well as of spatial scales of the main and concomitant uses of natural resources on the coastal territory and in coastal waters, we identified the main types of coastal-marine nature management in the southern areas of Pacific Russia and in Northern Vietnam: different kinds of nature management including the utilization of the territory for industrial-residential and transportation purposes as well as for cultivation of rice and vegetable crops, extraction of building materials, other mineral resources, forest use, extraction of marine salt from the sea water, coastal fisheries, various forms of mariculture, marine recreation, etc. A fragment of the cartographic assessment of the current types of coastal-marine nature management is presented for the southern coastal areas of Pacific Russia.     

The economic-geographical position of Siberia in Russia and in the world

Three main kinds of economic-geographical position (EGP) of Siberia: global, international transit and neighboring, and interstate, are considered. A quantitative assessment is made of the macroregion’s global position relative to world markets. The study ascertained the role played by the EGP in the formation of economic-settlement patterns of Siberia. The possible avenues for more intense use of this position are suggested.     

功能分区视角下的西安市发展空间分异

有效的功能分区是城市系统健康有序发展的保障。本文构建评价指标体系, 采用系统 聚类分析方法, 在功能分区视角下将西安市九个辖区分为核心区、雁塔区、未央区、长安区、 灞桥区及临潼-阎良区六个功能区域。中心商务区主导下核心区商贸流通业发达, 高新技术 产业开发区与曲江文化产业示范区主导下雁塔区技术经济与文化产业特色鲜明, 经济技术开 发区主导下未央区工业经济特征明显, 郭杜教育科技产业开发区与国家民用航天产业基地强 化长安区科教文化发展方向, 浐灞生态区彰显灞桥区生态经济发展特色, 生态农业区、阎良 飞机城加快临潼、阎良两区传统农业发展转型。功能分区及发展空间分异是城市化与经济发 展、历史基础与路径依赖、规模经济与集聚效应、本底化与特色化等基础因子以及新经济与 开发区建设、宏观调控与政策导向等新型因子综合驱动的结果, 基础因子起缓慢影响与逐渐 推进的辅助作用, 新型因子起突变影响与直接推动的主导作用。研究有助于科学认识城市, 合理组织城市, 提供实践参考。     

The Silk Road Economic Belt and Green Growth in the East of Russia

The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) opens new development opportunities for Russia in general, and its Eastern regions in particular, via larger-scale and multi-level international cooperation. The eastern regions of Russia, rich in natural resources, have traditionally focused on resource extraction. In the context of the SREB, the issues of environmental security in Eastern Russia come to the fore. Here, we propose tools for ‘diagnosis’ if a chosen path of regional economic development proceeds according to the concept of a green economy. We use different indicators based on eco-intensity. We determine ecological-economic development trends in the Eastern border regions of Russia at the initial stage of the Silk Road Economic Belt formation to serve as a starting point and guideline for development processes within the SREB. If cooperation is directed to implementing the best Chinese production chains, significant improvements in the quality of economic growth in Russia will be achieved.     

“一带一路”倡议下欧亚大陆陆海运输的空间均衡分析

在“一带一路”背景下,解析欧亚大陆陆海运输成本竞合基础上形成的空间均衡格局,是兼具理论与现实意义的重大经济地理问题。以北京和柏林为欧亚大陆两端终点,基于现有铁路路网,采用可达性分析方法,构建了陆海运输空间均衡分析模型,勾划出了欧亚大陆陆海运输平衡线,理清了“一带一路”背景下欧亚大陆的陆海运输空间竞合格局。研究发现,仅比较运费成本时,海运运输方式具有绝对优势,陆海运输平衡线沿俄罗斯近波罗的海区域—哈萨克斯坦—土库曼斯坦—塔吉克斯坦—中国西北部—蒙古—俄罗斯远东地区,将欧亚大陆划分为占比约1∶2的陆海运输空间竞合格局;考虑时间成本后,陆海运输空间竞合的平衡线向沿海地区明显推移,以德国柏林—黑海北岸—里海南岸—土耳其—青藏高原—中国宝鸡—大兴安岭—俄罗斯丘米坎为界,陆海运输基本形成了占比约1∶1的空间均衡态势。上述基于陆海运输成本角度的欧亚大陆陆海运输平衡线,与地缘政治学中陆权论和边缘地带论的相关结果在空间上高度吻合。基于此,本文进一步给出了欧亚大陆内陆区（陆运优势区）、海洋区（海运优势区）和陆海复合区的空间分区方案。由此,陆海运输空间均衡关系的综合分析可以成为探讨欧亚大陆地缘政治与经济空间格局的新视角,并为“一带一路”倡议的实施提供扎实的地理学科学基础。     

俄罗斯西伯利亚与远东地区城镇化发展水平测度及空间分异研究

构建城镇化评价指标体系,研究俄罗斯西伯利亚与远东地区2005~2015年人口、经济、社会城镇化发展水平及空间分异。研究表明：俄罗斯西伯利亚与远东地区城镇化综合发展水平呈小幅上升,西伯利亚城镇化发展水平高于远东,两联邦区人口城镇化水平下降、经济与社会城镇化发展缓慢,多数联邦主体的城镇化发展低于平均水平;空间上,城镇化发展水平高值区集中在西伯利亚联邦区西部（鄂木斯克-新西伯利亚-阿尔泰边疆区-克麦罗沃-克拉斯诺亚尔斯克-伊尔库茨克联邦主体）,低值区分布在远东联邦区东部（马加丹-楚科奇-勘察加联邦主体）,西高东低格局特征显著;最后探讨了促进西伯利亚与远东人口、经济、社会城镇化发展的具体对策。     

中蒙俄经济走廊生态经济区划研究

区划是地理学认识地理环境地域分异规律和优化人地关系地域系统结构与功能的有效手段。本文首先借鉴已有研究,对区域生态经济学这门新兴交叉学科及生态经济区划等相关概念进行了界定,明确了生态经济区划原则。其次,通过设计两级生态经济区划方案,首次对中蒙俄三国重要的经济增长轴带“中蒙俄经济走廊”这一国际区域进行了生态经济区划探索研究。基于研究区地貌、气候等自然地理要素以及经济开发强度等人文经济要素,首先将研究区划分为6类生态经济区。通过引入人均环境污染物产生量、土地利用类型、产业结构、人均GDP、城镇化率等具体生态环境和经济社会指标,进一步将研究区细化为19类生态经济亚区。最后,综合对比分析各类生态经济亚区的生态环境与经济社会特征及地域分异规律,贯彻绿色可持续发展理念,将其确定为优化发展区、重点发展区和保育发展区3类,并提出了针对不同类型区的绿色发展建议。本研究将为中蒙俄经济走廊的绿色发展提供科学支撑。     

The manifestations of the Holocene Little Climatic Optimum in the southern Far East

An analysis is made of the changes in biotic components of landscapes during the Holocene Little Climatic Optimum on the island and mainland shores of the southern Far East which manifested themselves in all landscape zones. Some paleoclimatic parameters and the shift of landscape zones have been assessed.     

The end of the Pacific? Effects of sea level rise on Pacific Island livelihoods

As in the past, most Pacific Island people live today along island coasts and subsist largely on foods available both onshore and offshore. On at least two occasions in the 3500 years that Pacific Islands have been settled, sea level changes affected coastal bioproductivity to the extent that island societies were transformed in consequence. Over the past 200 years, sea level has been rising along most Pacific Island coasts causing loss of productive land through direct inundation (flooding), shoreline erosion and groundwater salinization. Responses have been largely uninformed, many unsuccessful. By the year 2100, sea level may be 1.2 m higher than today. Together with other climate‐linked changes and unsustainable human pressures on coastal zones, this will pose huge challenges for livelihoods. There is an urgent need for effective and sustainable adaptation of livelihoods to prepare for future sea level rise in the Pacific Islands region. There are also lessons to be learned from past failures, including the need for adaptive solutions that are environmentally and culturally appropriate, and those which appropriate decision makers are empowered to design and implement. Around the middle of the twenty‐first century, traditional coastal livelihoods are likely to be difficult to sustain, so people in the region will need alternative food production systems. Within the next 20–30 years, it is likely that many coastal settlements will need to be relocated, partly or wholly. There are advantages in anticipating these needs and planning for them sooner rather than later. In many ways, the historical and modern Pacific will end within the next few decades. There will be fundamental irreversible changes in island geography, settlement patterns, subsistence systems, societies and economic development, forced by sea level rise and other factors.     

夏季风活动与长江流域的旱涝

本文指出夏季风活动与我国主要雨区位置有对应的配合。中国大部分降水集中在夏季风时期对某一年来讲,虽然年或季的雨量可以接近正常,但这并不意味着全国降水都接近正常,有些地方多雨,有些地方少雨,甚至还有些地方遭受旱涝灾害。其次,作者对长江流域旱涝的高低空环流特征作了概括,发现夏季风活动与西太平洋副高及其脊的东、西移动有密切联系。特别是副热带环流及青藏高压和西太平洋副高之间的相互作用对长江流域旱涝起到重要作用。最后探讨季风形成的基本因子及其对夏季风活动的可能影响。     

中国海岸带自然灾害与环境评估

本文论述了中国海岸带的分布和自然灾害发生的特点，并对其环境进行评估。分析指出，海岸带既是多种自然灾害频繁发生的地带，又是自然资源丰富、社会经济文化发达的地带。鉴于海岸带生态环境的脆弱性和继续恶化的趋势，今后应在掌握中国海岸带资源环境基本状况的基础上，对海岸带资源环境进行动态监测，预测未来海岸带资源环境发展趋势，从而增强中国社会、经济的可持续发展能力。     

北极航道海运货流类型及其规模研究

从北极海运货源角度出发,根据北极贸易、油气开发以及远东-西北欧、远东-北美东部当前海运货量状况,分析得出未来北极航道主要货物类型和规模的最大理论值为：（1）从俄罗斯、北欧北极地区到远东的液化天然气单向贸易流型式,到2030年,为1 000万t;（2）从远东到欧美的集装箱货物双向贸易流型式,北极东北航道、中央航道分担远东到西北欧航线的货运量,北极西北航道分担远东到北美东部的货运量,如果技术上能够低成本保障全季航行,按分担传统运河航线50%计算,到2030年,北极航道集装箱货运规模最大值约为1 743万TEU,是2011年传统运河航线的85%。由此得出结论：近中期东北航道天然气运输占据主要地位,但对北极航道更大运输需求是集装箱运输。此外,本文还比较了北极航道与运河航线的成本。     

THE A.D. 1300 EVENT IN THE PACIFIC BASIN*

ABSTRACT. Around a.d. 1300 the entire Pacific Basin (continental Pacific Rim and oceanic Pacific Islands) was affected by comparatively rapid cooling and sea‐level fall, and possibly increased storminess, that caused massive and enduring changes to Pacific environments and societies. For most Pacific societies, adapted to the warmer, drier, and more stable climates of the preceding Medieval Climate Anomaly (a.d. 750–1250), the effects of this A.D. 1300 Event were profoundly disruptive, largely because of the reduction in food resources available in coastal zones attributable to the 70–80‐centimeter sea‐level fall. This disruption was manifested by the outbreak of persistent conflict, shifts in settlements from coasts to refugia inland or on unoccupied offshore islands, changes in subsistence strategies, and an abrupt end to long‐distance cross‐ocean interaction during the ensuing Little Ice Age (a.d. 1350–1800). The A.D. 1300 Event provides a good example of the disruptive potential for human societies of abrupt, short‐lived climate changes.     

俄罗斯城镇化发展水平测度及空间分异

在“一带一路”倡议背景下,深入开展俄罗斯城镇化研究具有突出意义。在明晰俄罗斯城市空间分布特征的基础上,构建城镇化评价指标体系,研究俄罗斯83个联邦主体2005—2016年人口、经济、社会城镇化发展水平、空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明：俄罗斯初步形成了两核、多极、一横、四纵、多团的城市空间格局。2005—2016年,俄罗斯人口与社会城镇化增幅不大,经济城镇化发展显著,多数联邦主体的人口、经济、社会城镇化发展低于平均水平;空间上,城镇化高值区除集中在莫斯科与圣彼得堡外,还分布在达吉斯坦-伊尔库茨克等联邦主体的带状区域,低值区分布在远东区最东北端、西伯利亚区最南端、西北区最北端,核心高-边缘低、中部高-南北低、西部高-东部低的空间分异特征显著。俄罗斯城镇化受到历史形成与发展、地理基础与自然资源、政策与制度、工业化发展、国际市场和周边国家等因素的影响。