中国天山积雪垂直分布异质性研究

基于2001—2018年MOD10A2积雪产品和MOD11A2陆地表面温度数据,采用精细分区统计和相关性分析方法,研究了中国天山不同海拔高度上积雪垂直分布特征及其与地表温度（Land surface temperature,LST）的响应关系。结果表明：中国天山积雪覆盖率（Snow cover percentage,SCP）随海拔的变化呈现春、夏、秋、冬4种不同的季节变化模式。SCP在海拔4200 m以下呈秋冬季增加、春夏季减少态势,在海拔4200 m以上呈秋冬季减少、春夏季增加态势。除冬季外,春、夏、秋3个季节的SCP与LST均具有显著强负相关性。     

博州不同级别降水及极端降水事件的时空变化

根据1961—2005年新疆博州（博尔塔拉蒙古自治州的简称,下同）4站逐日降水资料,用阈值检测方法计算出博州地区极端降雨（雪）的阈值,并用气候趋势系数、Kendall-τ秩次相关以及滑动t检验等分析了博州地区不同量级降水日数以及极端降水日数的变化特征。研究表明,博州地区极端降水阈值与年平均降水量的空间分布基本一致：山区大,盆地小,地区间差异极大。3—10月一日降水量≤0.2 mm的微量降雨日数大范围减少;年降水量增加的方式在不同子区域是不同的：①对于年平均降水量仅有100 mm左右的艾比湖一带而言,主要体现在中雨、小雪次数的增加上,其他量级的雨雪日数及强度增加趋势不显著,这种增量对干旱区而言很小,无法改变干旱区的本质。②博河上游地区夏半年主要体现在小雨、大雨次数的增加以及中雨强度的增加上,冬半年主要体现在小雪、大雪或极端降雪日数的增加以及大雪、暴雪强度的增加上。虽然博河上游地区大雨次数显著增加,但强度显著降低。这种增加方式导致博河上游地区冬季牧区易出现雪灾,夏季易出现洪灾。③博河中游地区主要体现在小雪、中雪、大雪（或极端降雪）、中雨频次以及小雨强度的增加上,而且一日降水量≤0.2 mm的微量降雨日数的减少趋势大于其他量级降雨总次数的增加趋势。降水日的这种变化方式在该区域气候显著偏暖的气候背景中,极易造成春夏阶段性极端干旱事件频发。     

1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征

青海三江源地区是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水特别是生长季降水的波动,是影响本区及江河中下游水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展的关键因素。综合线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、BG分割算法、R/S、EEMD等多方法细致辨识了1960-2015年研究区降水量序列的时空特征。结果显示：① 三江源降水量总体呈现弱增趋势,21世纪以来降水量显著增加,各子源区气候倾向率不尽相同;② 年、季降水量自东南向西北递减,澜沧江源区夏季降水和黄河源区秋季降水呈弱减趋势,雨量弱减区在空间上呈斑块状分布;③ 年、季降水量年代际变化和增湿率的空间差异较明显,春夏季降水气候倾向率与经纬度、海拔的复相关性显著高于冬季;④ 20世纪90年代中后期,各子源区降水总体显现增强信号,并于2002年前后发生突变;⑤ 年际和低值年代际显著周期是造成降水量变动的主要因素;⑥ 除澜沧江源区夏季降水趋于减少外,其他年、季降水量变化呈现增幅不一的转湿趋势;⑦ 横向比较各子源区可见,长江源区降水变化更能表征高原气候变化。研究结果显示,研究区降水时空序列变化具有明显的区域和季节差异性特征,与以往类似研究存在些许差异,可见为有效提高气候序列演变过程及突变诊断的准确性,仍需进一步融合多方法实施集成分析。     

青藏高原强降水日数的时空分布特征

 根据青海和西藏48个气象台站近48 a（1961-2008年）的逐日降水和气温资料,分别以日降水量超过5 mm和25 mm作为冬半年（11月～翌年3月）和夏半年（5～9月）强降水的临界值,分析了青藏高原冬、夏半年强降水日数的时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）高原强降水日数与总降水量的空间分布型非常相似,夏半年均表现为由东南向西北递减,而冬半年则为由高原腹地向四周递减。（2）夏（冬）半年强降水主要集中在7月上旬～8月中旬（11月上旬和3月中下旬）。（3）夏（冬）半年强降水存在准6 a（5～6 a）的年际振荡以及准10～11 a（15 a）的年代际振荡。（4）强降水日数变化趋势的空间差异较大,夏半年高原北（南）部强降水日数普遍以增加（减少）趋势为主,而冬半年除雅鲁藏布江流域呈减少趋势外,高原大多数地区均表现出显著增加趋势。     

Characteristics of abrupt changes of snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer in the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on summer precipitation in China

In this paper, a variation series of snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer from 1965 to 2004 on the Tibetan Plateau has been established by using the observation data from meteorological stations. The sliding T-test, M-K test and B-G algorithm are used to verify abrupt changes of snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer in the Tibetan plateau. The results show that the snow cover has not undergone an abrupt change, but the seasonal freeze-thaw layer obviously witnessed a rapid degradation in 1987, with the frozen soil depth being reduced by about 15 cm. It is also found that when there is less snow in the plateau region, precipitation in South China and Southwest China increases. But when the frozen soil is deep, precipitation in most of China apparently decreases. Both snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer on the plateau can be used to predict the summer precipitation in China. However, if the impacts of snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer are used at the same time, the predictability of summer precipitation can be significantly improved. The significant correlation zone of snow is located in middle reaches of the Yangtze River covering the Hexi Corridor and northeastern Inner Mongolia, and the seasonal freeze-thaw layer exists in Mt. Nanling, northern Shannxi and northwestern part of North China. The significant correlation zone of simultaneous impacts of snow cover and seasonal freeze-thaw layer is larger than that of either snow cover or seasonal freeze-thaw layer. There are three significant correlation zones extending from north to south: the north zone spreads from Mt. Daxinganling to the Hexi Corridor, crossing northern Mt. Taihang and northern Shannxi; the central zone covers middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; and the south zone extends from Mt. Wuyi to Yunnan and Guizhou Plateau through Mt. Nanling.     

2002—2018年叶尔羌河流域积雪时空变化研究

积雪是冰冻圈中较为活跃的因子,对气候环境变化敏感,其变化影响着全球气候和水文的变化。积雪覆盖日数(SCD)、降雪开始时间(SCOD)和融雪开始时间(SCMD)是影响地表物质和能量平衡的主要因素。使用MODIS无云积雪产品提取了叶尔羌河流域2002年7月-2018年6月逐日积雪覆盖率(SCP),基于像元计算了SCD、SCOD和SCMD,系统地分析了其空间分布与变化特征,并探讨了其变化的原因及积雪面积的异常变化与ENSO的联系。结果表明:(1)研究时段内,流域的积雪覆盖面积呈微弱减少趋势,与气温呈显著负相关,与降水呈显著正相关;2002-2018年,SCP随海拔的升高呈明显的线性增加趋势(R2=0.92、P<0.01));各海拔高度带最大SCP出现的月份大致随海拔的上升往后推迟,最小SCP出现月份无显著变化(集中在8月),海拔4000 m以下,春季的SCP小于冬季,海拔4000 m以上,春季的SCP大于冬季。(2)SCD、SCOD和SCMD有明显的海拔梯度,在流域内,从东北至西南,呈现出SCD增加,SCOD提前,SCMD推迟的特征;变化趋势上,流域91.9%的区域SCD表现为减少,65.6%的区域SCOD有往后推迟的趋势,77.4%的区域SCMD表现出提前的趋势。(3)2006、2008年和2017年积雪覆盖面积异常偏大,而在2010年则异常偏小,其原因可能是ENSO影响了积雪的变化。(4)以喀喇昆仑为主的高海拔地区,包括帕米尔高原东部的部分地区,其SCD、SCOD和SCMD分别表现出增加、提前和推迟的趋势,这种变化与其春秋温度的持续走低以及降水量的增加有关。     

青藏高原近40年来的降水变化特征

利用我国青藏高原地区的1961-2000年56个气象站的逐月降水资料,通过计算降水量的距平百分率,分析了青藏高原自1961至2000年以来降水量变化的趋势和1961-2000年以来各季降水量变化趋势,发现:青藏高原近40年来降水量呈增加趋势,降水量的线性增长率约为1.12mm/a。再将高原划分为四个季节,分析了各季40年来的降水量的变化情况得出:春季降水量年际变化较大,秋季降水量变化不明显。夏季降水量值较大而降水变化幅度较小,冬季降水量变化则与夏季相反。通过将青藏高原分为南北两个地区,分析了两个区的年降水量和四个季节的降水量的变化得出:高原南区1961-2000年降水量呈增加的趋势,降水量的线增长率为1.97 mm/a,春季和冬季降水量年际变化较大,夏季降水量变化不明显,秋季降水量略有增加;北区年降水量和夏季的降水量变化较小,秋季降水量的年际变化较大,冬季降水量变化最大。对青藏高原的南北两区用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变分析,显示高原南区分别在1978年和1994年发生突变,北区没有发现突变。     

The role of declining Arctic sea ice in recent decreasing terrestrial Arctic snow depths

The dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice cover is anticipated to influence atmospheric temperatures and circulation patterns. These changes will affect the terrestrial climate beyond the boundary of the Arctic, consequently modulating terrestrial snow cover. Therefore, an improved understanding of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and snow depth over the terrestrial Arctic is warranted. We examined responses of snow depth to the declining Arctic sea ice extent in September, during the period of 1979–2006. The major reason for a focus on snow depth, rather than snow cover, is because its variability has a climatic memory that impacts hydrothermal processes during the following summer season. Analyses of combined data sets of satellite measurements of sea ice extent and snow depth, simulated by a land surface model (CHANGE), suggested that an anomalously larger snow depth over northeastern Siberia during autumn and winter was significantly correlated to the declining September Arctic sea ice extent, which has resulted in cooling temperatures, along with an increase in precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of Arctic sea ice has amplified warming temperatures in North America, which has readily offset the input of precipitation to snow cover, consequently further decreasing snow depth. However, a part of the Canadian Arctic recorded an increase in snow depth driven locally by the diminishing September Arctic sea ice extent. Decreasing snow depth at the hemispheric scale, outside the northernmost regions (i.e., northeastern Siberia and Canadian Arctic), indicated that Arctic amplification related to the diminishing Arctic sea ice has already impacted the terrestrial Arctic snow depth. The strong reduction in Arctic sea ice anticipated in the future also suggests a potential long-range impact on Arctic snow cover. Moreover, the snow depth during the early snow season tends to contribute to the warming of soil temperatures in the following summer, at least in the northernmost regions.     

基于MODIS数据中国天山积雪面积时空变化特征分析

基于2011-2015年MOD10A2积雪产品和气象数据,通过几何校正、去云预处理,应用归一化差分积雪指数算法等获取中国境内天山山区积雪覆盖面积数据,分析了积雪面积的时空变化特征及与气温降水的关系。结果表明：（1）年内积雪面积呈单峰变化,9月开始积累,次年1月达峰值,3月气温回暖消融加速,至7月最小。春秋季波动较大但没有明显的增减趋势,夏季积雪面积最小,冬季最大且呈减小趋势。（2）2001-2015年积雪覆盖面积整体上呈减少趋势,积雪覆盖率最大值的波动比最小值的波动更加剧烈。（3）积雪覆盖率随着海拔升高而增大,海拔<1 500 m区域积雪覆盖率低于10%,海拔>4 500 m以上区域平均可达70%,为常年稳定积雪区。积雪覆盖率在西北坡最高,南坡最低。（4）年均气温升高是积雪覆盖面积减小的主因,年积雪覆盖面积变化与年降水量变化保持一致的下降趋势。     

中国东北地区降雪的不均匀性特征分析(英文)

Based on 1961–2005 observed winter precipitation data in Northeast China, the temporal and spatial variations of snow concentration degree (SCD) and snow concentration period (SCP), together with the circulation characteristics when there is a higher SCD, are computed and analyzed. Results show that SCD in Northeast China presents a yearly rising tendency and SCP decreases obviously. In terms of decadal variation, there is a 12-year periodic variation in PCP, and since the mid-1970s there has been an 8-year short periodic variation. As to spatial variation, SCD in winter of Northeast China has increased gradually from the eastern part to the western, and the minimum value of SCD occurs in the east of Jilin Province, while the high value center is observed in the central part of the province. For the whole Northeast China, the variation tendencies are consistent in the eastern and central parts, where SCD presents a rising tendency and SCP shows a decreasing tendency. SCD in the southwestern and northern parts has a slight rising tendency, with SCD in the southwestern part having the slightest increasing tendency, and SCP in the northern part showing the slightest decreasing tendency. When a high SCD value is observed, the whole region is controlled by the East Asian deep trough at 500 hPa, and the trough becomes deeper in the western part, while a high pressure, which is easily formed and intensified in the eastern part, makes the East Asian deep trough move eastward slowly. Upper-level jet stream and low-level jet stream co-exist, and the former is stronger and takes more of a southwestward position than the latter. The high value zone of water vapor transport over the Pacific is intensified obviously, and the extent also increases. Northeast China is influenced by the water vapor transported to the northwest along the north of the high value center.     

Responses to climate warming of hydrological processes in the upper Kelan River in the Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Kelan River is a branch of the Ertix River, originating in the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China. The upper streams of the Kelan River are located on the southern slope of the Altay Mountains; they arise from small glacial lakes at an elevation of more than 2,500 m. The total water-collection area of the studied basin, from 988 to 3,480 m, is about 1,655 km2. Almost 95 percent of the basin area is covered with snow in winter. The westerly air masses deplete nearly all the moisture that comes in the form of snow during the winter months in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. That annual flow from the basin is about 382 mm, about 45 percent of which is contributed by snowmelt. The mean annual precipitation in the basin is about 620 mm, which is primarily concentrated in the upper and middle basin. The Kelan River system could be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snowmelt runoff. The hydrological system could be altered significantly because of a warming of the climate. The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and events would pose an additional threat to the Altay region. The Kelan River, a typical snow-dominated watershed, has more area at higher elevations and accumulates snow during the winter. The peak flow occurs as a result of snow-melting during the late spring or early summer. Stream flow varies strongly throughout the year because of seasonal cycles of precipitation, snowpack, temperature, and groundwater. Changes in the temperature and precipitation affect the timing and volume of stream-flow. The stream-flow consists of contributions from meltwater of snow and ice and from runoff of rainfall. Therefore, it has low flow in winter, high flow during the spring and early summer as the snowpack melts, and less flows during the late summer. Because of the warming of the current climate change, hydrology processes of the Kelan River have undergone marked changes, as evidenced by the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from May to June     

Seasonal Variability of Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent Using Visible Satellite Data

In this paper we use a satellite‐derived data set to explore spatial and temporal variations of snow extent across Northern Hemisphere continents during the last three decades. These weekly visible‐wavelength satellite maps of Northern Hemisphere snow extent produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration constitute the longest consistently‐derived satellite record of any environmental variable. We document the considerable intra‐annual variability of snow extent, and show that during each month, fluctuations over relatively small areas are responsible for the majority of the year‐to‐year variability. Regions that cover less than 6% of Northern Hemisphere lands north of 20°N explain 62% Ã Â Ã Â 92% of the interannual variance across the continents. On average, snow was more extensive across both Eurasia and North America from the 1970s to middle 1980s than during the late 1980s to late 1990s. During late winter, spring and summer, snow extent has decreased since the middle 1980s, while during fall to middle winter, snow extent has remained relatively constant. Accurate information on continental snow extent is critical for weather and hydrologic forecasting; for understanding hemispheric‐scale atmospheric circulation, thermal variations, and regional snow extent; and for using snow as a credible indicator of climate variability and change.     

MODIS observed snow cover variations in the Aksu River Basin,Northwest China

A major proportion of discharge in the Aksu River is contributed from snow-and glacier-melt water. It is therefore essential to understand the cryospheric dynamics in this area for water resource management. The MODIS MOD10A2 remotesensing database from March 2000 to December 2012 was selected to analyze snow cover changes. Snow cover varied significantly on a temporal and spatial scale for the basin. The difference of the maximum and minimum Snow Cover Fraction(SCF) in winter exceeded 70%. On average for annual cycle, the characteristic of SCF is that it reached the highest value of 53.2% in January and lowest value of 14.7% in July and the distributions of SCF along with elevation is an obvious difference between the range of 3,000 m below and 3,000 m above. The fluctuation of annual average snow cover is strong which shows that the spring snow cover was on the trend of increasing because of decreasing temperatures for the period of 2000-2012. However, temperature in April increased significantly which lead to more snowmelt and a decrease of snow cover. Thus, more attention is needed for flooding in this region due to strong melting of snow.     

黑河流量对祁连山气候年代际变化的响应

利用祁连山区8个气象站自建站至2003年观测的月降水、气温资料, 在分析各站气候要素互相关的基础上, 建立了代表祁连山整体气候变化的1944-2003年历年各月、季降水距平百分率和气温距平序列, 以及黑河上游莺落峡水文站观测的径流量, 分析了黑河流量与祁连山区降水、气温的年代际变化。结果表明: 祁连山气候演变存在非常明显的年际和年代际变化。自1970年代以来, 除夏季降水量呈上升趋势外, 秋、冬、春三季均表现出明显的变干, 尤其是秋、冬两季。本世纪初降水量又有增加趋势。比较过去60a气温变化, 1940年代最暖, 1960年代最冷。自1980年代以来, 祁连山区气候明显变暖, 各季气温显著升高, 尤以冬季升温最快, 目前已超过1940年代的暖期。1980年代的流量是过去60a中最大的10a, 1990年代有所减小。1990年代后期流量明显增加, 目前除春季外, 夏、秋、冬季已转入上升趋势。     

青海湖周边年代际气候振动及其对青海高原气候变化的响应

利用青海高原1958—2005年常规气象观测资料,统计了青海高原、青海湖周边的降水、气温序列,应用气候诊断方法分析了其年代际的变化规律及其成因。结果表明：青海湖周边1958年以来年度和四季平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,秋、冬两季和20世纪90年代升温比较明显。降水量除秋季呈减少趋势外,年度和其他季节均呈增加的趋势。60—90年代青海湖周边除70年代冬季、80年代秋季、90年代夏季气候类型与青海高原不一致外,其他年代和季节气候类型均与青海高原完全一致,该区域年代际气候的振动主要是由青海高原自然的气候波动和人类活动引起的。     

沙漠绿洲-高山冰雪气候带的垂直变化特征研究

气候变化在垂直方向上的分布规律是气候变化研究的一个重要方面。利用在天山北坡中部径向剖面上的6个不同海拔高度的气象站的气象资料,研究了沙漠绿洲-高山冰雪气候带在冬季、夏季和年度的年际气候变化对高度的响应,指出20世纪90年代(1991-2000)与前30 a(1961-1990)相比,平均气温、年降水量增加幅度随高度呈现非线性变化,不论在哪个高度上,冬季的增温幅度都要大于夏季;在最靠近沙漠的低海拔地区,年降水量增加幅度并不是最大的,而在海拔较高的山前绿洲地带和在3 500 m的高山区降水量增幅相对较大。此外,对气温、降水、相对湿度、蒸发等气候因子的变化趋势倾向率进行了分析,比较了不同高度的线性倾向率,揭示了沙漠绿洲边缘至高山冰雪带的气候变化在垂直方向上的分布特征,表明不论在哪个高度上,冬季、夏季和年度的平均气温变化都具有上升趋势;在山前地带和高海拔山区,降水增加趋势相对明显;蒸发能力减弱,相对湿度增加。     

2001-2017年祁连山积雪面积时空变化特征

科学监测祁连山积雪面积及变化特征对该区域气候研究、雪水资源开发利用、环境灾害预报及生态环境保护等具有重要意义。基于2001—2017年MOD10A2积雪产品和气象数据，分析祁连山积雪面积动态变化特征及与气温降水关系。结果显示：（1）2001—2017年祁连山积雪面积年际波动趋势较大，呈减小趋势，多年平均积雪面积约为5x104 km2，占祁连山总面积的25.9%；年内变化成 “M”型，即在一个积雪年中有两个波峰和波谷，波峰出现在11月和1月，波谷出现在7月；季节变化波动趋势较大，夏冬季积雪面积减小趋势大于春季，秋季呈现略微增加趋势。（2）祁连山区积雪面积主要分布在3 000~4 000 m及4 000~5 000 m，积雪覆盖率随着海拔上升呈现逐渐增大的趋势；祁连山区不同坡向积雪覆盖面积差异较大，积雪覆盖率差异较小；积雪频率高值区呈典型的条带状分布，与祁连山地形相一致，呈西北-东南分布，积雪频率高值区的分布西部大于东部。（3）初步分析认为祁连山积雪面积变化对气温要素更敏感。     

滇西北高原降水量时空变化特征

利用滇西北高原1961-2009年逐月降水量资料,采用多种统计分析方法,研究滇西北高原降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明:滇西北高原冬季、夏季和年平均降水量空间分布的主要特征是一致多雨或少雨型,且均具有经向分布特征,其次为"西北部-东南部"或者"西部-东部"反位相振荡型。冬季、夏季和年平均降水量的两种主要空间分布型所对应的时间系数均以年际变化为主,周期变化主要集中在4年以下的高频振荡时域内,其次是周期为12年的年代际变化。近48年来,滇西北高原冬季和年平均降水量随时间变化总体上均以增加趋势为主,增加趋势不明显,夏季降水量变化则呈减少趋势,其中香格里拉县夏季降水量减少趋势明显。     

近50年乌鲁木齐河流域垂直气候带的异同变化特征

依据乌鲁木齐河流域各站点近50 a的观测数据,分析垂直带内气候变化的异同特征。结果表明,年增温趋势最强的是低山带0.554℃/10 a,贡献最大是冬季温度。温度距平变化幅度除中山带为进入21世纪最大外,其他均为1990 s最大。显著增温突变年际尺度(2 a)上,低海拔带响应早于中、高山带;年代际尺度(16~23 a)上高山带最早,中山带最晚。年增湿趋势最显著是高山带20.8 mm/10 a,贡献最大是夏季降水。降水距平幅度除高山带1990 s振幅最大外,其他均为1980 s最大。降水突变特征为随着海拔高度的增加突变的响应时间依次推后。     

青海南部地区40多年来气候变化的特征分析

利用1961-2003年气温、降水、积雪等气象观测资料,分析了青海南部地区年际、年代际及各季气候变化的特征和规律。结果表明:该地区秋季气温升高最为明显,这有别于我国华北、东北、西北东部和新疆等地区冬季增温最为显著的特点;降水量冬、春季呈增加的趋势,而夏、秋季呈减少趋势;地表积雪量冬、春季的平均增加量分别为15.1cm和3.8cm,而夏、秋季的平均递减量分别为0.3cm和0.2cm。气候变暖和冬、春季降水增多以及冬、春季平均积雪量的跨季节异常或持续维持是导致青海南部地区20世纪80~90年代雪灾增多的最直接原因之一。冬、春季降水和地表积雪的增加,使得雪灾发生的频次增加,危害程度加重;而夏、秋季降水和积雪减少、气温升高、地表蒸发加大、水资源量减少,干旱出现的几率增大,影响畜牧业生产,制约当地经济发展。