水文模型参数区域化研究进展

参数区域化方法是解决资料缺乏地区水文模拟和预报的有效手段,主要包括回归法、空间邻近法和属性相似法三类方法,可将有资料流域的水文模型参数移用到资料缺乏流域。首先回顾了区域化方法的基本原理和应用方法,并分析了三类主要区域化方法的适用性。从流域特征因子、水文模型及参数、不确定性探讨三个方面综述了区域化方法的研究进展。分析发现,当前区域化方法缺乏完善的理论基础,流域特征因子选择存在主观性,水文模型及参数的适用性方面研究不足。最后展望了未来的研究重点：（1）多维度适用性比较;（2）水文过程和参数的空间分布规律;（3）参数的尺度问题;（4）参数区域化的不确定性问题。     

无资料地区水文模型参数移植不确定性分析

无资料地区降水径流模拟是水文学研究的国际前沿和热点问题。水文模型参数移植是无资料地区降水径流模拟的重要方法,对径流模拟精度具有重要的影响。利用核密度估计和蒙特卡罗随机模拟等方法,构建了一种水文模型参数移植误差驱动的无资料地区径流模拟不确定性定量评估框架。以广西壮族自治区42个有水文监测站点的典型中小河流为研究对象,率定新安江模型参数并模拟日径流和洪水过程,将42个典型流域依次假定为无资料流域,利用基于回归分析、相似流域和机器学习的参数移植方法,模拟无资料地区的洪水过程并识别最优的参数移植方法,分析移植法估算的模型参数值和直接率定值相比误差的概率分布特征,定量评估模型参数移植误差带来的径流模拟不确定性。研究结果表明：(1)基于回归分析的参数移植法模拟无资料地区洪水过程的精度优于相似流域法,优选的机器学习算法比传统回归分析法和相似流域法的计算精度提高了7%～15%;(2)与模型参数率定值相比,移植方法计算的模型参数具有一定的误差,对洪水模拟敏感参数的误差小于不敏感参数;(3)受模型参数移植误差的影响,利用蒙特卡罗法随机模拟的洪水过程具有一定的不确定性,洪量和洪峰相对误差的主要区间分别为10...     

基于SWAT模型的辽西走廊海岸带无观测资料流域地表径流模拟

基于SWAT模型和流域水文相似性原理,采用模型参数移植法对辽西走廊海岸带无观测资料流域-狗河流域进行地表径流模拟,取得了良好的效果.该方法不仅有效地解决了水文模型在模型参数移植过程中的不确定性问题,而且为其他无观测资料流域的径流模拟提供了方法借鉴.     

国际水文科学研究的新进展

在介绍第七届国际水文科学大会关注热点问题的基础上，总结了近4年来国际水文科学研究的新进展，主要包括：无资料流域水文预测，不确定性、非线性和尺度问题，生态水文学，水文模型及资料获取与参数识别，气候变化的水文响应，水资源可持续利用，城市水文水资源，同位素技术和遥感技术在水文学中应用；提出未来水文学研究的展望。     

基于相似性的无资料地区模型参数确定

基于新安江模型,利用GIS技术和相似性分析开展流域无资料情况下的水文模拟。在提取流域特征值的基础上,通过相关分析、聚类分析等方法判定相似流域,有效地分析了模型参数与流域特征的关系,重点论证了相似流域参数移植的可行性。通过相似性分析,发现相似流域的水文参数在几何空间上距离较近。基于此结论,本文对无资料地区进行了水文模型参数的确定,并取得了较好的模拟结果。     

基于IBUNE方法的水文模型不确定性分析

在贝叶斯理论框架下,根据一种可结合多个水文模型给出模拟或预报结果的IBUNE方法探讨了水文模型的输入、参数以及结构的不确定性问题。将SCEM-UA算法和EM算法嵌入新安江和TOPMODEL水文模型用于参数优化和模型平均,进而将输入与参数的综合不确定性处理后得到的预报量后验分布进行多模型综合,据此对水文模型的不确定性及其对水文模拟结果的影响进行评价。以湖南洣水流域龙家山水文站以上集水区域为例进行了应用研究,结果表明,IBUNE方法能够有效估计水文模型的不确定性,并能给出合理的概率预报区间。     

基于SUFI-2算法和SWAT模型的妫水河流域水文模拟及参数不确定性分析

敏感性分析和不确定性分析是分布式水文模型参数校准和模型应用的基础。本文以妫水河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法进行模型参数敏感性分析,结合手动调参和自动率定,通过SUFI-2的P因子和R因子进行模型不确定性分析,构建妫水河流域分布式水文模型。本次妫水河流域月尺度模拟中:率定期,确定系数R2=0.59,效率系数NSE=0.56;验证期,确定系数R2=0.82,效率系数NSE=0.80;P因子均大于0.5,R因子均小于0.5。结果表明,妫水河流域SWAT模型水文模拟效果较好。     

水稳定同位素示踪的冰川流域水文模拟及不确定性研究

水文模拟不确定性长期以来是制约寒区水文发展的瓶颈问题。水稳定同位素示踪为认识冰川流域径流过程提供了重要“指纹”信息,但仍缺乏有效模型将该信息与冰川水文模型耦合,而且同位素信息对冰川流域水文模型不确定性的约束效果也有待检验。将水稳定同位素信息（δ¹⁸O）与冰川流域水文模型FLEX^G相耦合,实现对冰川流域水稳定同位素和径流过程的耦合建模（FLEX^G-iso）,并在乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川流域进行模拟检验和径流分割。结果表明：模型不仅对2013—2016年径流过程有良好的模拟效果,还可以重现水稳定同位素、冰川物质平衡等重要过程。利用水稳定同位素这一辅助数据,提高了模型参数的识别能力,减少了模拟过程中各水源的相互妥协效应和不确定性范围。2013—2016年1号冰川断面径流32%~34%来自融雪,48%~51%来自融冰,0%~7%来自地下水,12%~15%来自降雨径流。水稳定同位素对雪和冰川相关中间过程有明显的约束能力,原有模型对融冰贡献的模拟偏高约7%。FLEX^G-iso模型的建立有助于推动寒区水文学理论和方法的发展,以及寒区水资源、生态环境保护等相关决策制定。     

遥感信息在水文动态模拟中的应用

以浙江省曹娥江流域为试验区,采用萨克拉门托流域水文模型,重点探讨了利用LandsatTM影象资料直接或辅助确定水文模型参数的途径和方法。研究表明,应用遥感信息确定萨克拉门托流域模型参数,进行日、月和年径流的动态模拟是完全可行的,并可取得较满意的精度,从而为无资料地区的水文动态模拟和监测提供了新经验。     

大尺度水文模型参数不确定性分析的挑战与综合研究框架

水文模型是对自然界复杂水文现象与过程的一种综合近似描述,在水旱灾害防治、水资源管理与开发利用等方面应用广泛。本文分析了大尺度水文模型应用的难点,总结了参数不确定性研究的主要进展,介绍了参数不确定性分析框架“敏感性分析—参数优化—参数区域化”(SOR)的基本概念、重要性与应用情况。论文基于已有认识,建议在水文建模优化过程中引入更全面的参数不确定性分析SOR框架,并加强新一代分布式水文模型与更加成熟的水文气象数据观测系统的开发,以减少来自模型结构与模型驱动数据的不确定性,提高全球变化背景下大尺度水文模型水循环过程模拟和预测的准确性。     

Extenuating the parameters using HEC-HMS hydrological model for ungauged catchment in the central Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia

Characteristics of ungauged catchments can be studied from the hydrological model parameters of gauged catchments. In this research, discharge prediction was carried out in ungauged catchments using HEC-HMS in the central Omo-Gibe basin. Linear regression, spatial proximity, area ratio, and sub-basin mean were amalgamated for regionalization. The regional model parameters of the gauged catchment and physical characteristics of ungauged catchments were collated together to develop the equations to predict discharge from ungauged catchments. From the sensitivity analysis, crop coefficient (CC), storage coefficient (R), constant rate (CR), and time of concentration (TC) are found to be more sensitive than others. The model efficiency was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (N_SE) which was greater than 0.75, varying between ?10% and +10% and the coefficient of determination (R²) was approximated to be 0.8 during the calibration and validation period. The model parameters in ungauged catchments were determined using the regional model (linear regression), sub-basin mean, area ratio, and spatial proximity methods, and the discharge was simulated using the HEC-HMS model. Linear regression was used in the prediction where p-value ≤ 0.1, determination coefficient (R²) = 0.91 for crop coefficient (CC) and 0.99 for maximum deficit (MD). Constant rate (CR), maximum storage (MS), initial storage (IS), storage coefficient (R), and time of concentration (TC) were obtained. The result is that an average of 30 m³/s and 15 m³/s as the maximum monthly simulated flow for ungauged sub-catchments, i.e. Denchiya and Mansa of the main river basin .     

Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods,rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete

Natural Hazards - This study represents the first palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic evidence from two ungauged catchments in southern Crete. Dendrogeomorphological methods,...     

基于地貌参数法的无资料地区洪水预报研究

为了探索无资料流域的洪水预报问题,以改进的HBV模型为例,介绍应用地貌参数法推求无资料地区模型参数的方法。并利用武江流域实测50场雨洪资料,对改进的HBV模型进行率定,在参数达到较好的模拟效果后,与流域的地貌参数建立相关关系,然后利用所建立的相关关系及武江支流田头水和韩江支流丰良河的地貌参数,推求模型参数,最后用田头水和丰良河各50场洪水进行验证,取得了较好效果。     

降雨和地形地貌对水文模型模拟结果的影响分析

概念性水文模型数量众多,判断模型是否适合研究流域可以通过模拟结果来体现,但是熟悉流域的产汇流特性可以筛选模型,从根源上大量减少工作量,也可以解决相似流域无资料的问题。选取6种概念性水文模型,以马渡王、板桥和志丹这3个半湿润与半干旱流域为研究区域,探讨流域特性与模型结构之间的关系,并通过降雨和地形地貌分析其对模型模拟结果的影响。研究结果表明,流域地形及植被对产汇流过程有重要影响,由于局部产流现象严重,河道坡度影响大于流域平均坡度,当区域气候条件相差不大时,地形地貌比降雨对流域产汇流特性影响更大。因此对于水文模型的选择,可以在熟悉流域产汇流特性的基础上因地制宜,必要时可以增加适合研究流域的模块来获得更好的预报,在半干旱与半湿润流域,同时具有蓄满和超渗机制的模型能得到更好的应用。     

Fitting a simplified two-parameter gamma distribution function for synthetic sediment graph derivation from ungauged catchments

A simple procedure is proposed and demonstrated to generate synthetic sediment graphs (SSG) for ungauged catchments. The proposed procedure makes use of widely used two-parameter gamma distribution function in a simplified manner. The shape and scale parameters of the distribution are derived using simple analytical procedures given by Bhunya et al. (J Hydrol Eng 8(4):226–230, 2003) for situations where partial data is usually available as in the case with sedimentation studies. The direct sediment graphs are computed by convolution of unit sediment graph with the mobilized sediment. The suitability of the proposed procedure is tested using the temporally observed sediment graph data of seven small watersheds of Piedmont Province of the Potomac River Basin, Washington D.C., USA. The results obtained are compared with the rigorous synthetic procedure of Chen and Kuo (J Hydrol 84:35–54, 1986). The goodness-of-fit in terms of absolute relative error in peak sediment outflow rate and time-to-peak sediment outflow rate between observed and computed sediment graphs by proposed as well as Chen and Kuo method shows that the proposed procedure produces results well comparable and even better than those obtained using Chen and Kuo procedure and therefore can be successfully used for development of SSG for ungauged catchments. It is worth noting here that the proposed procedure is very simple in application as compared to the rigorous procedure of Chen and Kuo and eliminates the restriction on storm duration and incorporates the routing concept which plays an important role in sedimentation. Moreover, since the proposed procedure makes use of probability distribution function, several other suitable distributions can also be explored for derivation of synthetic sediment graphs from ungauged catchments.     

新安江模型中河网汇流参数Cs的一种计算方法

新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs主要取决于河网形态及地貌特征规律,针对PUB（Prediction in Ungauged Basin）问题,从物理机理分析的角度,构建描述河网汇流动态变化的微分方程并给出适当的定解条件,用解析法得出微分方程的解,从而探索出在无实测水文资料地区适用的Cs计算方法。选取中国湿润地区和半湿润地区25个流域,统计并分析了各流域次洪模型的Cs计算值和率定值。结果表明,从总体来看计算值和率定值基本上相等;不论流域是否分块,提出的Cs计算方法均适用;当其他参数保持不变,虽然Cs取计算值时所得到的次洪模拟结果略逊于取率定值的模拟结果,但误差在可接受的范围之内,也能取得良好的模拟效果;如果令Cs取计算值,再重新率定其余的各项参数,能够使模拟精度得到进一步提高。采用该法可推求无实测资料地区的汇流参数Cs值,使模型在无资料地区的应用成为一种可能。     

Rain induced shallow landslide hazard assessment for ungauged catchments

A physically based distributed slope stability model derived from the integration of hydrologic analysis and slope stability analysis is presented for GIS based modeling on a catchment scale. The catchment is represented by a mesh of squares with vertical columns. The hydrologic model calculates subsurface flow and resulting pore-water pressure during rainfall in each cell for every time step. The slope stability module then calculates the stability of each cell for the changing water pressure scenario. There are very few input data requirements, which makes the model applicable to ungauged catchments, also where the record of the past landslides and associated rainfall are not available. The model was tested in Garjuwa catchment, Nepal where all landslide scars were documented. The model reproduces the observed distribution of landslide locations in a consistent way. Several model runs were conducted, increasing the intensity of rainfall to see corresponding increase in instability. The results show that there is a critical rainfall intensity for the catchment, beyond which increase in rainfall intensity does not increase instability significantly.     

Mean runoff coefficient estimation for ungauged streams in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Runoff coefficient estimation in ungauged watersheds has a priority for rain water harvesting and management of runoff water, for domestic and agriculture activities, in semi-arid and arid regions. To estimate mean runoff coefficient (C _Re) for ungauged streams, Pearson's coefficient of linear correlation (r) was measured. The method of linear regression (y?=?mx?+?c) was applied for 16 gauged catchments representing several regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, such as Al Qassim, Al Madinah, Riyadh, Asir, Makkah, and Jazan. The studied catchments were equally divided into two groups based on their main streams slopes; group A includes eight gauged streams having main stream slope less than 0.01, where group B includes eight gauged streams having main stream slope equal to or greater than 0.01. The result yields the constant of the linear regression for each group and the mean runoff coefficient of basin by an independent value (basin slope) for group A and an independent value (stream slope) for group B. The results indicate that the measured runoff coefficient (C _Rm) and the estimated runoff coefficient (C _Re) are almost equal to each other.