Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with SSW using ERA-Interim

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are identified to investigate their influence on the equatorial tropospheric climate. Composite analysis of warming events from Era-Interim (1979–2013) record a cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere with corresponding changes in the mean meridional stratospheric circulation. A cooling of the upper troposphere induces enhanced convective activity near the equatorial region of the Southern Hemisphere and suppressed convective activity in the off-equatorial Northern Hemisphere. After selecting vortex splits, the see-saw pattern of convective activity in the troposphere grows prominent and robust.     

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.     

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical downscaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, downscaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and downscaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the midlatitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability.     

Ocean model derived global surface circulation and Vertical velocity

In this article, the authors examine Sea surface temperature (SST), Sea surface circulation (SSC) and Vertical velocity (VV) fields from simulation of 25 layers coarse resolution Modular ocean model (MOM version 3.0) with prescribed wind forcing for the region 74.25°S to 65°N, 180°W-180°E. It is found that distribution of SST simulated by the model shows its consistency with the observed climatology. However, simulated SST in the areas of Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region and east of North America near equator exhibit slight warming with respect to observation, which may be due to model deficiency and forcing problems. Circulation features suggest that one of the strongest current viz. Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) along with other major current systems viz. Gulf stream current, North and South Pacific current, Agulhas current, Labrador current, Canary current, etc are captured well by the model. In the Indian Ocean and other ocean basins, current patterns are well captured by the model simulation. Intense upwelling as well as downwelling areas is marked in the horizontal distribution of VV, which is as expected. VV show quasi-stagnant and convergent regions suggesting that floating materials may be accumulated during January/July in the real ocean and wind driven circulation may act as an important contribution for such transport of floating materials in these regions. An attempt has also been made to understand the fluctuations of the SST in NINO 3.4 region during the period of model simulation using SST anomalies.     

Numerical modeling of valley glacier stagnation as a paleoclimatic indicator

Stagnation of the terminal region of a glacier occurs in response to sufficiently large and rapid climatic warming, so the presence of stagnation deposits provides quantitative information on the climate change that forced retreat. Here we use a simple flow-line glacier model to investigate the relationship between stagnation, climate forcing and aspects of the glacier bed. For climatic warming greater than the threshold to cause stagnation, larger or faster warming events cause longer regions of a glacier to stagnate. Smaller or slower warming episodes, below the threshold for stagnation, cause retreat while active flow persists along the entire glacier length. The threshold for stagnation depends not only on the climatic forcing but also on many other aspects of the glacier, with stagnation favored by factors including a lower mean bed slope with greater roughness. Quantitative determination of the climatic forcing consistent with the occurrence or absence of stagnation deposits requires that these site-specific characteristics be incorporated in modeling.     

The sensitivity of the northern hemisphere summer mean meridional circulation to changes in the large scale eddy forcing

A zonally averaged version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) climate model is used to study the sensitivity of the northern hemisphere (NH) summer mean meridional circulation to changes in the large scale eddy forcing. A standard solution is obtained by prescribing the latent heating field and climatological horizontal transports of heat and momentum by the eddies. The radiative heating and surface fluxes are calculated by model parameterizations. This standard solution is compared with the results of several sensitivity studies. When the eddy forcing is reduced to 0.5 times or increased to 1.5 times the climatological values, the strength of the Ferrel cells decrease or increase proportionally. It is also seen that such changes in the eddy forcing can influence the strength of theNH Hadley cell significantly. Possible impact of such changes in the large scale eddy forcing on the monsoon circulation via changes in the Hadley circulation is discussed. Sensitivity experiments including only one component of eddy forcing at a time show that the eddy momentum fluxes seem to be more important in maintaining the Ferrel cells than the eddy heat fluxes. In the absence of the eddy heat fluxes, the observed eddy momentum fluxes alone produce subtropical westerly jets which are weaker than those in the standard solution. On the other hand, the observed eddy heat fluxes alone produce subtropical westerly jets which are stronger than those in the standard solution.     

巴伦支-喀拉海海温和青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际联系

基于1961—2017年中国气象局地表气温数据、JRA-55大气再分析数据以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局延伸重建的海温资料,研究了青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际变化特征及其与海温的可能联系。结果表明：巴伦支-喀拉海冬季海温年代际变化可以激发出向东传播的Rossby波,在西伯利亚对流层高层产生异常的气旋或反气旋性环流,通过影响副极地以及副热带西风急流强度,在青藏高原的南侧产生异常的反气旋或气旋性环流,从而使得青藏高原上空的垂直运动发生变化,导致青藏高原冬季地表气温异常。     

全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾

1998—2012年,全球平均地面增温速率较之前明显趋缓,出现全球变暖停滞现象,该现象的成因与机制是当前气候变化研究的一个热点领域。主要从外部强迫和内部变率2个角度回顾全球变暖停滞产生机制的研究进展。从气候系统外部强迫影响来说,全球变暖停滞主要受到太阳活动、火山爆发、气溶胶以及平流层水汽等的影响。从气候系统内部调控作用来看,全球增温速率减缓主要受到太平洋、大西洋、印度洋和南大洋自然变率以及相应的热量再分配过程的影响。全球变暖停滞期间气候系统内部能量并没有减少,其中一部分能量被转移并储存在了海洋中深层,从而对全球增温减缓产生影响。同时,重点回顾了针对部分耦合强迫作用的"起搏器"试验,该类试验是研究全球变暖停滞的特征、成因及机制的有力手段。此外,也总结了全球变暖停滞现象对气候系统能量收支平衡、资料、模拟以及相关政策制定等方面带来的挑战,展望了未来的研究重点。     

Review of the Research Progress in Global Warming Hiatus

From 1998 to 2012, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature showed significantly slower than before, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. The causes and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon are currently a hot topic of climatic change research. The research significance of global warming hiatus was discussed and relevant research progress was reviewed from two perspectives of external forcings and internal variabilities. In term of external forcings, global warming hiatus is mainly affected by solar activities, volcanic eruptions, aerosols and stratospheric water vapor. With respect to internal variabilities, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature slowdown is mainly related to the natural variabilities of the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean and influenced by the related heat redistribution processes. During the global warming hiatus period, some energy is transferred and restored in the deep ocean so as to modulate the global warming rate, rather than there is a reduction of global total energy in the climate system. In addition, the partially coupled forcing pacemaker model experiment was also reviewed. The pacemaker experiment is a powerful tool for studying the characteristics, causes and underlying mechanisms of the global warming hiatus. Besides, some challenges resulted from the global warming hiatus, including the global energy imbalance, data, simulation and related policy-making were summarized, and future research directions were also discussed.     

Causes of Arctic Amplification: A Review

The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes in the recent decades, a robust phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification (AA), which has become one of the most notable features of climate change. This review summarized the major advances of the mechanism of AA from both local factors and poleward heat transport from lower latitudes. Local factors, including positive ice-albedo feedback and increasing downwelling longwave radiation caused by water vapor and cloud, play an important role in AA. Due to the colder background temperatures and the more stable vertical structure than the lower latitudes, the temperature feedback is therefore positive, which induces the warm signal amplified in the Arctic. The poleward heat transport via atmosphere circulation and ocean currents is also a contributor to AA, and the multidecadal variability in the Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific surface temperature are the dominant forcing of the atmosphere circulation. Finally, several issues that remain to be solved were proposed.     

Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0–180°W)

The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0–180°W; north of ∼60°N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.6±0.8°C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12–10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada. The delayed warming in Quebec and Labrador was linked to the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet, which chilled the region through its impact on surface energy balance and ocean circulation. The lingering ice also attests to the inherent asymmetry of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that predisposes the region to glaciation and modulates the pattern of climatic change. The spatial asymmetry of warming during the HTM resembles the pattern of warming observed in the Arctic over the last several decades. Although the two warmings are described at different temporal scales, and the HTM was additionally affected by the residual Laurentide ice, the similarities suggest there might be a preferred mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation that generates a recurrent pattern of warming under positive radiative forcing. Unlike the HTM, however, future warming will not be counterbalanced by the cooling effect of a residual North American ice sheet.     

平流层爆发性增温中平流层环流及化学成分变化过程研究

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）气象分析场、欧洲空间局ENVISAT/MIPAS卫星观测资料以及平/对流层大气化学输送模式MOZART 3综合分析了2003—2004年冬季北半球爆发性增温事件对于平流层大气环流、物质输送以及对流层顶附近臭氧通量等多方面的影响。结果表明：①本次增温过程持续时间长、强度大,平流层极涡从高层向下逐层分裂,增温效应作用到大气较低层,当纬向东风形成并维持后极涡又自上向下逐层恢复;②SSW过程前后行星波活动频繁,有长时间多次的上传,且以1波作用为主,2波对其进行补充;③在θ PVLAT坐标中分析发现SSW扰动过程中平流层中存在一对向极、向下的传播模态,相应的对流层中有一向赤道的传播模态,不同符号的纬向风、温度异常信号沿这两个模态传播,且上、下层传播模态在时间上存在着一定的联系;④增温过程中行星波活动引起的向极输送以及极区垂直运动的变化,共同影响了平流层的物质输送过程,从而导致北半球平流层N2O、O3、CH4、H2O等微量气体成分的垂直、水平分布发生显著变化;⑤增温过程中活跃的行星波可以造成平流层Brewer Dobson环流增强,同时导致高纬度地区（60~90°N）穿越对流层顶的臭氧通量（Cross Tropopause Ozone Flux, CTOF）显著增强,与行星波相联系的等熵物质运动引起“middleworld”区域内向赤道的臭氧通量也有所增强。     

Fault systems and Paleo-stress tensors in the Indus Suture Zone (NW Pakistan)

Analysis of fault-striations measured in the Kohistan part of the Indus Suture Zone (NW Himalaya, Pakistan) has been carried out to document dynamic evolution during the brittle stage of the collision of India and Asia. Processing of the data with a direct inversion method identified four stress fields which were chronologically ordered from field evidence as SSE–NNW compression, E–W compression, radial extension and SSW–NNE compression. The last corresponds to the present-day stress field defined from seismic activity. The earlier stress fields are related to times during the Miocene, when convergence-related stresses were disturbed by the formation of the nearby Nanga Parbat and Indus syntaxes.     

额尔齐斯河流域上游地区近50 a来气温和降水变化的DFA分析

为查明新疆境内额尔齐斯河流域年及季节性气温和降水变化规律,并对未来的可能变化趋势做出预测,基于去趋势波动分析法（DFA）对流域近50 a来的气温、降水序列的平均值和极端值进行分析. 研究表明,年降水及春、夏的降水序列有较好的长程相关性,在较长时间尺度内均有继续保持原有趋势的可能,即年降水继续增加,春、夏降水维持稳定;秋、冬季降水则呈现弱持续性和强随机性,在短时间尺度上保持现状,长时间尺度上则存在改变的可能. 年均温及夏、秋、冬温也将继续保持升温的趋势,春季长时间尺度上存在改变的可能. 流域内温度和降水都将保持增长的趋势,而且温度的持续上升相对降水具有更高的可能性. 由DFA方法确定的极端阈值及相应极值序列显示：20世纪80年代以来,极端高温和极端降水事件开始增多,且量值增大,准周期变短,但极端高值并没有显著提高;极端低温事件的发生次数减少显著,平均值增大,同时低温极值增高明显,冬季气温对全球变化的响应更为敏感.     

青藏高原南部冰芯记录与大气环流的关系*

通过念青唐古拉峰拉弄冰川垭口处(30°24'30″N, 90°34'12″E;海拔5850m)长度为29.5m的冰芯记录,恢复了1952~1998年间大气降水δD和净积累量的时间变化序列。上述两组序列与NCEP/NCAR气候资料的相关分析表明:δD和净积累量与中亚冬季的气压、南亚和青藏高原冬季、夏季的位势高度关系密切。中亚地区冬季气压的升高以及冬、夏季南亚和青藏高原位势高度的异常增强了印度夏季风,导致了念青唐古拉峰地区20世纪80年代以来降水量的增多和降水中δD值的降低。根据念青唐古拉冰芯δD和净积累量记录及其与亚洲地区大气环流的关系,可以通过青藏高原南部较长的冰芯记录来恢复过去该地区大气环流变化的历史。     

130年来全球气温变化的模拟

本文利用海－气耦合的能量平衡模式研究了全球平均气温的变化。在对130年来全球气温变化的模拟研究中，比较全面地考虑了各种辐射强迫因子。此外，对于厄尼诺－南方涛动对全球平均温度的贡献也做了模式估计。数值模拟的全球温度序列与观测序列的相关系数达0.884，可解释77.8％的温度变化，并反映出温度的年际和年代际变化的特征，这可能是目前国内外同类工作的最佳结果。     

Structural style and fault kinematics of the Lower Eocene Rus Formation at Jabal Hafit area,Al Ain,United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The current contribution presents aspects of the structural style and fault kinematics of the Rus Formation that expose at Jabal Hafit, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates. Although the major structure of Jabal Hafit is an anticlinal fold, fractures (joints and faults) are the prominent structure of the study area. The fractures can be interpreted as the distributed effect of deep-seated basement fault reactivation or to be as reactivation of deep-seated basement faults. These fractures were created during two main tectonic stress regimes. The first is a WNW–ESE S _Hmax strike-slip stress regime, responsible for producing E–W to ESE–WNW joints and E–W dextral strike-slip and NNE–SSW reverse faults. This stress is interpreted to be post-Early Eocene in age and related to the second phase of thrusting in the Oman Mountains in the Miocene. The second stress regime is a NNE–SSW S _Hmax transtensional (strike-slip extensive) stress regime that was responsible for N–S to NNE–SSW striking joints and NE–SW sinistral strike-slip and N–S normal faults. This regime is interpreted to be post-Middle Eocene in age. This stress was the response to the collision of the Arabian–Eurasian Plates which began during the Late Eocene and continues to the present day.     

基于WRF驱动的CLM模型对青藏高原地区陆面过程模拟研究

NCAR-CLM是目前国际上发展较为完善的陆面过程模型.鉴于大多数研究利用气象站点的数据驱动CLM模型, 尝试将WRF气候模型的模拟结果作为驱动CLM的面上强迫场数据来对青藏高原陆面能量特征进行模拟研究.对WRF气候模型模拟的输出结果与青藏高原气象站观测数据进行比较分析表明, WRF模拟输出的气温和向下短波辐射数值与观测值的相关系数大于0.92(p >0.05), 气压和比湿的R²在0.80以上(p >0.05), 降雨和风速的模拟性能不稳定, 但WRF模拟输出的强迫场也可以作为CLM模型的驱动数据. CLM模拟的地表温度、 感热和潜热通量与青藏高原气象站观测的地表温度以及涡度通量数据验证分析表明, 虽然CLM对地表温度的模拟在合理范围内, 但模拟与观测值还是有较大偏差, 潜热和感热之间的相关系数分别为0.87和0.68(p >0.05), 表明CLM的模拟结果在单点上是可靠的.据此, 在此模拟结果基础上分析了青藏高原地区的陆面能量时空分布特征.     

Proper depiction of monsoon depression through IRS-P4 MSMR

In this paper, daily variations of satellite-derived geophysical parameters such as integrated water vapour (IWV), cloud liquid water content (CLW), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface wind speed (SSW) have been studied for a case of monsoon depression that formed over the Bay of Bengal during 19th-24th August 2000. For this purpose, IRS P4 MSMR satellite data have been utilized over the domain equator — 25‡N and 40‡-100‡E. An integrated approach of satellite data obtained from IRS-P4, METEOSAT-5 and INSAT was made for getting a signal for the development of monsoon depression over the Indian region. Variations in deep convective activity obtained through visible, infrared and OLR data at 06 UTC was thoroughly analyzed for the complete life cycle of monsoon depression. Geophysical parameters obtained through IRS-P4 satellite data were compared with vorticity, convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa levels generated through cloud motion vectors (CMVs) and water vapour wind vectors (WVWVs) obtained from METEOSAT-5 satellite. This comparison was made for finding proper consistency of geophysical parameters with dynamical aspects of major convective activity of the depression. From the results of this study it is revealed that there was strengthening of sea surface winds to the south of low-pressure area prior to the formation of depression. This indicated the possibility of increase in cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere. Hence, wind field at 850 hPa with satellite input of CMVs in objective analysis of wind field using optimum interpolation (OI) scheme was computed. Maximum cyclonic vorticity field at 850 hPa was obtained in the region of depression just one day before its formation. Similarly, with the same procedure maximum anticyclonic vorticity was observed at 200 hPa with WVWVs input. Consistent convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa was noticed with respect to these vorticities. In association with these developments, we could get lowest values of OLR (120 W/m² ) associated with major convective activity that was consistent with the maximum values of integrated water vapour (6-8gm/cm²) and cloud liquid water content (50-60 mg/cm² ) persisting particularly in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression.     

The influence of orbital parameters on the North American Monsoon system during the Last Interglacial Period

The response of summer precipitation in the western United States to climate variability remains a subject of uncertainty. For example, palaeoclimate records indicate the North American Monsoon (NAM) was stronger and spatially more extensive during the Holocene, whereas recent modelling suggests a weakened NAM response to increasing temperatures. These illustrate diverging pictures of the NAM response to warming. Here, we examine summer precipitation in the southwestern US related to Last Interglacial insolation forcing. Using a high-resolution climate model, we find that Eemian insolation forcing results in overall wetter conditions throughout most of the southwestern US, but significantly drier than present conditions over Arizona. The overall wetter conditions are associated with a northward shift of the anticyclonic circulation aloft and increased moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere during the Eemian. Increased advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture is responsible for increasing precipitation in New Mexico and the northern edges of the NAM region. Drier conditions over Arizona are likely related to reduced local convection associated with reduced vertical moisture transport. These results highlight the spatial complexity of the NAM response to increasing radiative forcing and allow a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and variability in response to a warming climate.