全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾

1998—2012年,全球平均地面增温速率较之前明显趋缓,出现全球变暖停滞现象,该现象的成因与机制是当前气候变化研究的一个热点领域。主要从外部强迫和内部变率2个角度回顾全球变暖停滞产生机制的研究进展。从气候系统外部强迫影响来说,全球变暖停滞主要受到太阳活动、火山爆发、气溶胶以及平流层水汽等的影响。从气候系统内部调控作用来看,全球增温速率减缓主要受到太平洋、大西洋、印度洋和南大洋自然变率以及相应的热量再分配过程的影响。全球变暖停滞期间气候系统内部能量并没有减少,其中一部分能量被转移并储存在了海洋中深层,从而对全球增温减缓产生影响。同时,重点回顾了针对部分耦合强迫作用的"起搏器"试验,该类试验是研究全球变暖停滞的特征、成因及机制的有力手段。此外,也总结了全球变暖停滞现象对气候系统能量收支平衡、资料、模拟以及相关政策制定等方面带来的挑战,展望了未来的研究重点。

Review of the Research Progress in Global Warming Hiatus

From 1998 to 2012,the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature showed significantly slower than before,which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. The causes and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon are currently a hot topic of climatic change research. The research significance of global warming hiatus was discussed and relevant research progress was reviewed from two perspectives of external forcings and internal variabilities. In term of external forcings,global warming hiatus is mainly affected by solar activities,volcanic eruptions,aerosols and stratospheric water vapor. With respect to internal variabilities,the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature slowdown is mainly related to the natural variabilities of the Pacific Ocean,the Atlantic Ocean,the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean and influenced by the related heat redistribution processes. During the global warming hiatus period,some energy is transferred and restored in the deep ocean so as to modulate the global warming rate,rather than there is a reduction of global total energy in the climate system. In addition,the partially coupled forcing pacemaker model experiment was also reviewed.The pacemaker experiment is a powerful tool for studying the characteristics,causes and underlying mechanisms of the global warming hiatus. Besides,some challenges resulted from the global warming hiatus,including the global energy imbalance,data,simulation and related policy-making were summarized,and future research directions were also discussed.