地面沉降对风暴潮灾害的增强作用

根据水准测量资料及水准点高程的线性模型计算,获得天津沿海地区地面沉降速率分布。结合风暴潮灾害与海堤工程现状调查,研究认为风暴潮灾害的经济损失与沿海地区不断加剧的地面沉降密切相关。天津地区风暴潮灾害的发生频率已由历史时期的8年一次,上升到地面沉降发展时期的5年一次,风暴潮致灾频率呈加快趋势,地面沉降以及由此引发的风暴潮灾害加剧已成为天津滨海新区沿海的重要自然灾害。提出应着力落实天津市控制地面沉降管理办法和防潮工程措施、加强地面沉降治理和海堤建设等工作建议。     

基于脆弱指数法的曹妃甸海岸带脆弱性评价

了解海岸带脆弱程度对于海岸带可持续开发和防灾避灾是至关重要的.基于脆弱指数法选取风暴潮灾害风险等6项因子构建指标体系对曹妃甸地区海岸带脆弱程度进行评价,采用2种赋权重方法对比讨论结果的合理性.结果表明:海岸带脆弱程度由近岸至内陆呈逐渐降低趋势,高脆弱和较高脆弱区主要分布在涧河至滦南第三盐场近岸、高尚堡盐场至大清河盐场近岸;风暴潮灾害风险和地面沉降速率是影响曹妃甸海岸带脆弱性高低的2个主要指标.     

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.     

城市规划中地面沉降灾害的风险评估方法研究

合理评估城市地面沉降灾害的风险,在城市的规划与建设过程中进行合理规避与应对是当前地面沉降研究中的热点与难点问题。现有地面沉降灾害危险性评估方法在分析地面沉降对城市规划与基础设施建设影响方面存在着不足。本文在系统分析和比较当前地面沉降灾害危险性评估方法的基础上,提出了在规划阶段针对不同基础设施的地面沉降灾害风险评估方法。该方法基于基础设施对沉降的敏感性及重要性分类与平均沉降速率两类指标,给出了各类基础风险分级评价标准。最后采用该方法对北京东部地区某规划地铁线的地面沉降灾害风险进行了分析。     

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

2001-2020年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估

地面沉降是加速潮灾、涝灾等自然灾害的风险源.由于上海市市政建设和高层建筑的建设以及周边地区继续抽取地下水的影响,地面沉降趋势仍在继续.这使上海市在未来必将遭受地面沉降灾害所产生的巨大经济损失.分析了上海市未来地面沉降灾害产生经济损失的可能性、损失程度等.通过对影响未来地面沉降灾害经济损失不确定因素的分析,运用统计方法评估了2001-2020年间上海市地面沉降灾害风险的经济损失.经评估,2001-2020年上海区地面沉降灾害风险经济损失总额为245.7亿元.     

京津冀区域地面沉降灾害防治思考

本文基于京津冀区域一体化发展这一重大国家战略背景,针对在京津冀平原地区广泛发育的地面沉降灾害问题,分析灾害发育现状及危害,回顾既往灾害防治工作成果,解读京津冀区域地面沉降灾害防治工作存在的问题以及面临的挑战,从宏观上提出全面实施大区域地面沉降灾害防治基础性研究工作、加大京津冀联合水资源管理力度、落实区域地面沉降联防联控制度以及全力推进相关管理、标准体系建设工作等京津冀区域地面沉降灾害防治工作设想,并对后续工作开展提出建议。     

北京市地面沉降防治工作探讨

北京市地面沉降监测工作在新世纪发展较快,目前已经形成了由基岩标—分层标监测、精密水准测量、GPS测量、InSAR监测和区域地下水动态监测一体的监测系统,在地面沉降灾害监测、机理研究、灾害防治等方面均取得长足发展。本文从基础研究、地下水控采、法治建设、区域联动和多部门配合、线路工程地面沉降防控等多个方面对北京市地面沉降的防治工作进行了探讨,指出:多个途径控制地下水超采问题,是从源头上防治地面沉降的根本方法;法治建设是地面沉降防治工作的制度保障;区域联动和多部门配合是地面沉降防治工作的必然趋势;高速铁路等线路工程是地面沉降防治工作的重点和突破口。     

国际地面沉降研究最新进展综述

本文根据2010年10月在墨西哥召开的＂第八届国际地面沉降学术研讨会＂交流和展示的成果,对近5年来国际地面沉降研究进展进行综述。简要介绍了地面沉降机理分析、监测技术、模型研究、次生灾害与环境影响及其防治管理等方面的最新研究动态。     

北京市地面沉降防治形势与对策

本文从区域地质环境条件、水资源供给形势、地面沉降灾害影响情况、防治目标及防治工作5个方面分析了北京市地面沉降防治形势,提出了防治对策。     

应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

A quantitative expression for the magnitude and intensity of disaster of storm surges

We here discuss the concept of the magnitude and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge and propose a method of calculation based on the principle of the wind scale and the earthquake magnitude. The magnitude of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the scale of the storm surge, and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the losses caused by the storm surge.     

21世纪中叶天津沿海地区极端高水位趋势预测

据统计,天津沿海地区50年一遇的风暴潮极端增水水位为 4.092m,开展控沉工作后的地面下沉速率约为15mm/a,目前沿岸海挡顶面高程一般为 4.332m.参考孟加拉湾、伦敦、汉堡等沿海地区在2050年海平面上升(取较今高约0.2m的推测值)背景下的极端增水趋势预测(增加0.5m),推测天津沿海地区2050年的极端高水位将增加到 4.792m(4.092m 0.2m 0.5m),现有海挡顶面高程将下沉至 3.687m(以2007年为起算年份).2050年极端高水位将比届时的海挡顶面高1.105m,由此将加重风暴潮水漫溢致灾的危险.如果再考虑波浪叠加、河口效应、极端海面上升等不确定因素的影响,危险将更加严重.     

Risk assessment on storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

The coastal area of Guangdong Province is one of the most developed regions in China. It is also often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of the few regions in China which are seriously threatened by storm surges. Based on the data of storm surges in the study area in the past 30 years, the return periods of 18 tide stations for storm surge are calculated separately. Using the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, combined with the topography data of the study area, the submerged scope for storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong Province is determined, and the hazard assessment is carried out. According to the view of systematic point, this article quotes the result of vulnerability assessment which was done by the author in the previous research. Based on the hazard evaluation and vulnerability evaluation, risk assessment of storm surges in the study region is done, and the risk zoning map is drawn. According to the assessment, Zhuhai, Panyu and Taishan are classified as the highest risk to storm surges in Guangdong Province; Yangdong, Yangjiang and Haifeng are in higher risk to storm surges; Dongguan, Jiangmen, Baoan and Huidong are in middle risk to storm surges; Zhongshan, Enping, Shanwei, Huiyang, Longgang and Shenzhen are in lower risk of storm surges; Guangzhou, Shunde and Kaiping are in the lowest risk to storm surges. This study builds a complete process for risk assessment of storm surges. It reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities, and it would guide the land use of coastal cities in the future and provide scientific advices to the government for the prevention and mitigation of storm surge disaster. It has important theoretical and practical significance.     

Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings

The storm surge in coastal Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina was unprecedented in the region. The height and geographic extent of the storm surge came as a surprise to many and exceeded pre-impact surge scenarios based on SLOSH models that were the basis for emergency preparedness and local land use decision-making. This paper explores the spatial accuracy of three interpolated storm surge surfaces derived from post-event reconnaissance data by comparing the interpolation results to a specific SLOSH run. The findings are used to suggest improvements in the calibration of existing pre-event storm surge models such as SLOSH. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions on an optimal surge forecast map that could enhance the communication of storm surge risks to the public.     

An Analysis of the Recent Severe Storm Surge Disaster Events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surgedisasters is much higher than that caused by anyother marine disaster in China, the loss from the severestorm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics showthat there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeastcoast of China since 1990, three of which,occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused themost severe damage. The direct economic lossesdue to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan(RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD,respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year duringthe 1989–1991 period. This paper makes a comparativeanalysis of the damage caused by the three events andpresents an overview of progress of precautions againststorm surge disaster in China. The suggestedcounter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe stormsurge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raisethe whole society awareness of precaution against severestorm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan forbuilding sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the availablewarning and disaster relief command system; (4)Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigatethe loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.     

北京地面沉降InSAR监测效果分析

在分析北京地面沉降灾害现状、现有监测方法和技术手段基础上,对LglnSAR监测与传统分层动态监测、高精度水准测量、GPs测量等在区域地面沉降监测时效性、精确性和经济性等之间的差别,并以北京地铁13号线地面沉降InSAR监测为例,分析其优势与不足,为优化北京地面沉降监测资源、全面开展线性工程地面沉降灾害监测提供参考,以助于推进首都减灾防灾工作进程。