陕西龙门山地震带地质灾害的地质构造约束

汶川8级特大地震发生于龙门山地震带,地震灾害损失惨重,震后诱发大量次生山地地质灾害。通过笔者参加的我省宁强、略阳等县汶川震后次生地质灾害应急排查,结合区域地质、控震构造和地震活动性分析,以期对陕西龙门山地震带次生山地地质灾害特点和地震活动规律的探讨,对我省防灾减灾提供有益的帮助。     

地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨

在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务.     

2022年MS6.8级泸定地震诱发地质灾害特征与空间分布规律研究

2022年9月5日四川甘孜泸定县发生6.8级地震,诱发了大量地质灾害,造成房屋损毁和多处道路阻断,并导致了严重的人员伤亡。快速预测地震诱发地质灾害空间分布对震后应急救援至关重要。为此,成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室利用已建立的地震诱发滑坡近实时预测模型,在震后2 h内,快速预测了地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率。同时,利用震后重点区域的无人机影像和国产高分六号影像,对地震诱发滑坡进行了智能识别和人工解译及现场调查复核,共解译滑坡3633处,总面积13.78 km2。研究发现本次泸定地震诱发滑坡,较2008年汶川和2017年九寨沟地震滑坡,规模相对较小。本次地震诱发滑坡主要分布于鲜水河断裂带和大渡河两侧,呈带状分布,在磨西镇、得妥镇及王岗坪彝族藏族乡等Ⅸ度烈度区相对集中。对控制滑坡空间分布的地形地貌、地质和地震3类因素9个因子进行分析,发现其主要分布在坡度35°~55°、高程1000~1800 m范围内;受断层控制强烈,主要分布在距断层1 km范围内;在花岗岩中最为发育。上述研究成果获得的地震诱发滑坡及受损道路和房屋分布情况,为震后应急救援提供了重要支撑。     

地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测研究——以2022年6月1日四川芦山地震为例

2022年6月1日17时00分,继2013年芦山地震,时隔9年四川省雅安市芦山县再次发生M_S6.1级地震。地震是诱发山区地质灾害的重要因素之一,往往造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失。快速准确地获取地震诱发滑坡的空间分布范围对震后应急救援和临时安置点选取至关重要。本文基于全球地震诱发滑坡数据库,采用深度森林算法,建立了地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测模型。将该模型应用于“6·1”芦山地震诱发滑坡的快速预测,在震后1 h内获取了滑坡空间分布概率预测结果,并第一时间到达震区进行地质灾害应急调查与模型复核。调查表明,本次地震诱发地质灾害以小型崩塌、滑坡为主,高易发区主要分布在芦山县北部和宝兴县西部的交汇区,断层上盘滑坡数量明显高于下盘。对比模型预测结果与宝兴东河流域地质灾害现场调查数据,发现模型预测准确率达80%以上,特别是相对较大规模的滑坡均发生在模型预测的高易发区,说明模型可以弥补震后现场调查与遥感数据获取时效性方面的不足,为震后应急救援提供科学支撑。     

无人机遥感图像及其三维可视化在汶川地震救灾中的应用

在分析了无人机低空遥感影像几何变形原理,对无人机遥感数据进行图像拼接与几何校正,正射精校正等处理后与高精度DEM融合,制作出了研究区景观的三维遥感虚拟动态模型。通过分析三维可视化图像,结合地形资料,对汶川地震重灾区安县荼坪河流域由山体滑坡和崩塌等地貌变化造成的堰塞湖和相关灾害,进行了高分辨率、低空遥感的灾害信息获取和灾情评估。实践表明,在灾害应急和复杂地形条件下,使用无人机低空遥感及其三维可视化技术,进行实地数据采集和信息提取,能够对震后各种实时情景进行精确描述,为决策者提供了准确、详细、及时的第一手资料,从而最大限度地减少损失。     

四川九寨沟Ms7.0级地震滑坡应急快速评估

基于地震滑坡危险性评估的Newmark累积位移模型,利用震前获取的震区地形数据、区域地质资料,结合地震动近实时获取技术,开展了四川九寨沟M_s7.0级地震诱发滑坡的应急快速评估。地震滑坡位移分析结果表明,同震滑坡活动的中—高强度区分布在断层两侧宽约4 km的带状区域内,整体沿北西方向延伸。其中,极震区的丰雪塘、日则和干海子等城镇驻地及附近道路的滑坡强度相对较高;震前、震后影像对比表明九寨沟地震诱发的滑坡类型以浅表型碎屑流及小规模崩塌为主,且同震碎屑流多是在震前已有碎屑流的基础上进一步活动扩展而来,震后汛期泥石流隐患也不容忽视;通过典型地区滑坡位移分析结果与震前、震后影像对比,表明滑坡位移分析结果能够较好的反映同震滑坡的宏观分布特征,但在场地尺度上吻合程度欠佳,后续将通过提升岩性和地形等数据质量进行改进。研究结果可为灾情研判提供宝贵信息,对提高灾害应急救援效率具有重要意义。     

“8·8”地震对九寨沟景区层湖叠瀑景观的影响

2017年"8.8"九寨沟地震后,通过对九寨沟核心景区景观的应急调查,结合水文监测系统实时监测数据综合分析研究,认为九寨沟景区景观水流系统总体处于基本稳定状态。根据其现状提出了加强震后综合调查研究,为景区灾后重建与景区旅游可持续发展提供科学依据。     

中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度应急评价模型

为了对中小型原水河渠污染事故危害影响程度进行综合评价,利用污染事故案例样本资料,在提出原水污染事故危害度概念基础上,归纳影响中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度的直接与间接影响因素,应用粗糙集理论与方法,对间接影响因素进行重要性分析、冗余约简及重要度权重计算,综合直接与间接影响因素的作用,构建中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价模型。以成都市原水河渠为例,设计模拟污染事故情景,对所构建模型进行分析,结果表明,模型能够反映中小型原水河渠污染事故的危害影响程度。所构建模型适用于中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价,可为应急响应决策提供支撑信息。     

2008年以来中国5次典型地震事件诱发地质灾害主控因素分析

地震触发地质灾害主控因素的厘定是研究地震地质灾害和灾后应急救援响应的关键问题。笔者在野外典型地震滑坡实地调查和室内图件分析的基础上,以2008年以来我国先后发生的汶川地震、玉树地震、芦山地震、岷县漳县地震和彝良地震触发的地质灾害为研究对象,开展了地震地质灾害主控因素研究,主要取得以下认识：（1）地震地质灾害的空间展布特征主要受控于发震断裂的活动性质、地震动峰值加速度（PGA）、震区地形坡度和高差、距断裂带和水系的距离等4个方面。地震型地质灾害主要沿地震断裂带呈带状分布,逆冲型地震较走滑型地震诱发的高位、高速远程滑坡数量多,方量大,危害严重。（2）地震震级越大,极震区地形坡度越陡,地层风化破碎越严重,发生地质灾害的可能性就越大,造成的危害也更加严重,如2008年5·12汶川地震区。（3）地震地质灾害分布与地震烈度等级大小无必然联系,部分低烈度区因处于高山峡谷区而灾害频发。因此,震后地质灾害排查要充分利用地震地质灾害的成灾模式和成灾规律,震中区和地震高烈度区不一定是地质灾害极易发区。地震型地质灾害主控因素的分析为震后地质灾害空间分布范围预测及为灾后减灾应急响应方案制定提供了技术支撑。     

四川汶川地震诱发滑坡与峰值速度的关系

利用汶川地震诱发的滑坡资料和得到的地震动数据,对地震诱发滑坡与峰值速度的关系进行了分析,得到一些基本认识：①地震诱发滑坡与地震动峰值速度(PGV)存在明显的正相关性,可以利用PGV作为判别地震滑坡的判据;②汶川地震龙门山震区可以触发地震滑坡的PGV下限约为0.5m/s;③龙门山震区可以触发地震滑坡的PGV上限约为1.5m/s;④建立了汶川地震龙门山震区PGV衰减关系,可用以估计地震滑坡致灾的范围。利用地震动参数研究地震诱发滑坡具有很好的一致性,可以克服应用烈度时存在的不足。上述研究结果可以应用于震后灾害快速评估工作中,为应急救援方案的制定提供参考信息。     

Opportunities provided by geographic information systems and volunteered geographic information for a timely emergency response during flood events in Cologne,Germany

The occurrence of disasters such as extreme flooding in urban environments has severe consequences, not only on the human population but also on critical infrastructures such as the road networks, which are of vital importance for everyday living and particularly for emergency response. In this article, our main goal is to present-conceptually and in praxis-a model that could be used from the emergency responders for timely and efficient emergency management and response in an urban complex environment. For the city of Cologne in Germany, we aim to indicate possible ways to decrease the emergency response time during an extreme flood scenario through the development of an accessibility indicator, which consists of different components. Therefore, we will investigate the opportunities that occur, in a flood risk scenario, from the use of geographic information in different forms such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and open-source data in an ArcGIS environment, to increase urban resilience through the decreasing emergency response time. We will focus on network analysis for the fire brigades (first acting emergency responders) during a flood scenario to calculate their emergency response ranges and emergency response routes through flooded road networks, for the assistance of the possibly affected hospitals, refugee homes and fire brigades, which can be flooded. At the end of the paper, we suggest that the vulnerable community of the refugees could be taken into consideration as a new source of VGI, as an additional component that would lead to the decrease in the emergency response time. The geo-located information that could be provided by the refugee community can be very useful in emergency situations, such as those examined in this article where timely information can be forwarded to the proper authorities for a more focused and timely emergency response, increasing the resilience of the urban population and their community.

     

Opportunities provided by geographic information systems and volunteered geographic information for a timely emergency response during flood events in Cologne,Germany

The occurrence of disasters such as extreme flooding in urban environments has severe consequences, not only on the human population but also on critical infrastructures such as the road networks, which are of vital importance for everyday living and particularly for emergency response. In this article, our main goal is to present-conceptually and in praxis-a model that could be used from the emergency responders for timely and efficient emergency management and response in an urban complex environment. For the city of Cologne in Germany, we aim to indicate possible ways to decrease the emergency response time during an extreme flood scenario through the development of an accessibility indicator, which consists of different components. Therefore, we will investigate the opportunities that occur, in a flood risk scenario, from the use of geographic information in different forms such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and open-source data in an ArcGIS environment, to increase urban resilience through the decreasing emergency response time. We will focus on network analysis for the fire brigades (first acting emergency responders) during a flood scenario to calculate their emergency response ranges and emergency response routes through flooded road networks, for the assistance of the possibly affected hospitals, refugee homes and fire brigades, which can be flooded. At the end of the paper, we suggest that the vulnerable community of the refugees could be taken into consideration as a new source of VGI, as an additional component that would lead to the decrease in the emergency response time. The geo-located information that could be provided by the refugee community can be very useful in emergency situations, such as those examined in this article where timely information can be forwarded to the proper authorities for a more focused and timely emergency response, increasing the resilience of the urban population and their community.     

Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management Program in Taiwan: A Case Study of Shang-An Village

Taiwan has long made efforts to increase community emergency response capability, due to its vulnerability to earthquakes, typhoons, landslides and debris flows. Not until recent major natural disasters, such as the 1999 Chi–Chi Earthquake, Typhoon Toraji and Typhoon Nari, has the government reformed its policy toward empowering the community to take actions in hazard mitigation, emergency preparedness and emergency response. A new initiatve, Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management Program (ICBDM), was launched in 2001 by the Executive Yuan to achieve the goal of strengthening community resistance. The paper, taking Shang-An Village as an example, describes Taiwan’s new community-based disaster management program. Through a participatory process, community residents have learned how to analyze vulnerable conditions, discover problems, develop solutions and establish an organization to implement disaster management tasks. Further, basic response training courses and a disaster scenario were held in order to improve their emergency response capability. Based on the case study, a phased process, including initiation, assessment, planning and practice, is generalized.     

A comparative study of the main factors controlling geohazards induced by 10 strong earthquakes in Western China since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008

Determining the main controlling factors of earthquake-triggered geohazards is a prerequisite for studying earthquake geohazards and post-disaster emergency response. By studying these factors, the geomorphic and geological factors controlling the nature, condition, and distribution of earthquake-induced geohazards can be analyzed. Such insights facilitate earthquake disaster prediction and emergency response planning. The authors combined field investigations and spatial data analysis to examine geohazards induced by seismic events, examining ten earthquakes including the Wenchuan, Yushu, Lushan events, to elucidate the main control factors of seismic geohazard. The authors observed that seismic geohazard occurrence is usually affected by many factors, among which active nature of the seismogenic fault, seismic peak ground acceleration (PGA), topographic slope and geomorphic height differences, and distance from the fault zone and river system are the most important. Compared with strike-slip earthquakes, thrust earthquakes induce more high-altitude and high-speed remote landslides, which can cause great harm. Slopes of 0°–40° are prone to secondary seismic geohazards, which are mainly concentrated 0–6 km from the river system. Secondary geohazards are not only related to seismogenic fault but also influenced by the associated faults in the earthquake area. The maximum seismic PGA and secondary seismic geohazard number are positively correlated, and the horizontal and vertical ground motions play leading and promoting roles in secondary geohazard formation, respectively. Through the research, the spatial distribution of seismic geohazards is predicted, providing a basis for the formulation of emergency response plans following disasters.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office.     

基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制

为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求，针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点，运用多案例分析法，解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故，提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念，定义了集合{突水水源，突水通道，采掘方式，出水量，淹没范围，生存空间}为矿井水灾事故的情景，并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径，详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程，并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制，案例推演应用表明，该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程，而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。      

Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison

This article contributes to the development and application of two latest-generation methods of seismic risk analysis in urban areas. The first method, namely vulnerability index method (VIM), considers five non-null damage states, defines the action in terms of macroseismic intensity and the seismic quality of the building by means of a vulnerability index. The estimated damage degree is measured by semi-empirical functions. The second method, namely capacity spectrum based method (CSBM), considers four no damage states, defines the seismic action in terms of response spectra and the building vulnerability by means of its capacity spectrum. In order to apply both methods to Barcelona (Spain) and compare the results, a deterministic and a probabilistic hazard scenario with soil effects are used. The deterministic one corresponds to a historic earthquake, while the probabilistic seismic ground motion has a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years. Detailed information on the building design has been obtained along years by collecting, arranging, improving, and completing the database of the dwellings of the city. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been customized allowing storing, analysing, and displaying this large amount of spatial and tabular data of dwellings. The obtained results are highly consistent with the historical and modern evolution of the populated area and show the validity and strength of both methods. Although Barcelona has a low to moderate seismic hazard, its expected seismic risk is significant because of the high vulnerability of its buildings. Cities such as Barcelona, located in a low to moderate seismic hazard region, are usually not aware of the seismic risk. The detailed risk maps obtained offer a great opportunity to guide the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation in Barcelona, and for emergency planning in the city.     

沙牌坝址基岩场地地震动输入参数研究

重大水利水电工程地震动输入参数必须根据专门的地震危险性分析结果来确定。目前由地震危险性分析得到的一致概率反应谱具有包络的意义,不能反映实际地震的频谱特性,输入“一致概率反应谱”可能导致地震作用偏大;拟合设计反应谱人工生成地震动加速度时程的频率非平稳性也没有得到很好解决。为了解决这些问题,得到与坝址地震危险性一致、具体地震的输入参数,结合沙牌大坝提出了一套适用于重大水利水电工程基岩场地地震动输入参数确定方法：通过以有效峰值加速度为参数的概率地震危险性计算分析,确定坝址不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度及对坝址贡献最大的潜在震源区;在最大贡献潜在震源内利用震级空间联合分布概率最大法确定坝址设定地震,依据加速度反应谱衰减关系确定与坝址设定地震对应的设计反应谱;根据设定地震结果和时变功率谱模型参数衰减关系确定时变功率谱,将时变功率谱和最小相位谱按三角级数叠加法进行强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程合成。在对沙牌坝址区域的地震活动性及地震构造环境分析评价的基础上,采用上述方法,得到了坝址基岩场地不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度、设计反应谱、强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程等地震动输入参数。     

“便携式地震应急指挥辅助决策系统”简介

本系统可以随身携带,自动监视地震监测台网发布的地震信息,自动启动,在接到地震信息后1-2分钟内自动给指挥者提供地震震中行政区域位置图、地震应急方案和震害快速评估等应急辅助决策,从而避免地震应急指挥的无序性,提高地震应急指挥决策的效率,缩短地震救灾组织时间。它集成了地震应急工作的全过程辅助功能。本系统对运行设备要求低,运行速度快,维护容易,操作方法简单,通用型设计,全国(全球)适用。用其建设地震应急指挥系统,投资省,见效快,运行维护成本低,可得到物美价廉的功效。     

Improving information access for emergency response in disasters

During disasters, many researchers highlight the efficiency of the various information techniques that are used for emergency response. However, only a few information systems consider on-site and off-site information requirements synchronously. The results achieved by the emergency responders will not be as effective as they should be, since the emergency responders cannot access necessary information. Therefore, this study proposed an approach for dealing with three problems associated with emergency situations, i.e., inadequate escape guidelines for people, incomplete geographical information for relief workers, and insufficient on-site information for disaster managers. In a simulated scenario, when serious debris flows occurred, this study tested the approach. The test results showed that the people rapidly finished self-evacuation, the relief workers effectively completed their on-site relief work, and the disaster managers successfully managed the on-site activities regarding the people and relief workers. Overall, the recommended approach improved information access for emergency response and provided a useful reference for similar applications in disaster management.     

Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by Ground Shaking

One of the most critical lessons of the recent earthquakes is the need for seismic planning for lifelines, with appropriate supplies and back up systems for emergency repair and restoration. Seismic planning, however requires physical loss estimations before the earthquakes occur. Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. We review the existing pipeline damage relationships only for ground shaking (transient ground deformations) in the light of recent developments and evaluate them with Denizli City, Turkey water supply system. Eight scenario earthquakes with four different earthquake magnitudes between M6 and M7 caused by two different fault ruptures (Pamukkale and Karakova-Akhan Faults) were used. Analyses were performed by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). This high number of different scenario earthquakes made it possible to compare the pipeline damage relationships at different ground shaking levels. Pipeline damage estimations for Denizli City were calculated for each damage relationship and earthquake scenario. Relative effects of damage relationships and scenario earthquakes on the results were compared and discussed. The results were presented separately for brittle, ductile, and all pipelines. It was shown that the variation in ductile pipeline damage estimations by various relationships was higher than the variation in brittle pipeline damage estimations for a particular scenario earthquake.