陕北黄土地区伤亡性地质灾害时空特点及成灾原因

通过实地调查与资料分析,探讨陕北地区伤亡性地质灾害时空分布。从孕灾环境、致灾因素、致灾体运动特征和承灾体防范能力四个方面对陕北地区伤亡性地质灾害成灾原因和防范对策进行研究。     

珠江三角洲地面塌陷的孕灾环境和致灾因子分析

地面塌陷是珠江三角洲城市地质灾害的主要类型之一。地面塌陷灾害孕灾环境复杂、致灾因子多样,承灾体脆弱,灾害后果严重。多雨的气候背景、活动断裂构造、广布的隐伏岩溶和淤泥以及剧烈的人类活动构成地面塌陷的孕灾环境;致灾因子包括自然因素和人为因素两种,自然因素致灾因子包括岩溶的发育程度、覆盖层特征、地形地貌、强降雨或重干旱气候特征等;人为因素致灾因子主要指人类活动因素,如加载和排水等。     

洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架

基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值

采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。     

淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值

采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:①致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;②洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。     

青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

区域滑坡灾害风险评估——以长江三峡库区秭归县为例

以滑坡灾害突出的三峡库区秭归县为研究区。在深入分析滑坡孕灾环境、诱发因素、滑坡编录和承灾体信息的基础上,利用Logistic回归模型和统计分析方法相结合进行了滑坡危险性评价。通过滑坡灾害致灾强度与承灾体抗灾能力分析了人口、建筑物、生命线工程和土地资源的易损性。采用成本价值核算法对各类承灾体进行了价值核算,最后通过风险模型预测了研究区内未来10年滑坡灾害的生命与经济风险。生命和经济高风险区分别占整个研究区面积的1.11%和2.71%,主要分布在集镇和学校、企事业单位等人口密集区以及交通建设用地等经济价值大的地区;中风险区分别占13.21%和20.66%,主要分布于农村居民生活居住和耕地活动区;低风险区分别占85.68%和76.63%,则分布在经过地质灾害治理和人类活动较为稀少的未利用地及林地等区域。通过实地调查分析与对比验证,发现预测结果与实际灾情较吻合。研究表明,集镇和学校、企事业单位等人口集中区和交通建设用地区是今后减灾防灾部署工作的重中之重。     

区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究

灾害所造成的后果是由致灾环境的危险性和承灾体的脆弱性决定的。承灾体的脆弱性对区域减灾有着极为重要的作用 ,而承灾体脆弱性指标体系的建立则成为区域脆弱性评价的关键。文章确定了承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系的功能及建立原则 ,在前人研究的基础上 ,综合反推法、信息量法等多种方法确定了基于灾前评判的承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系     

基于灾损评估的青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划

利用青海高原1961-2010年42个气象站逐次冰雹过程及其灾情信息, 采用滑动平均、 标准归一化及线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 承灾体易损性评估指标的基础上, 建立了冰雹灾害区划模型, 并结合ArcGIS9.3平台得到青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划图. 结果表明: 青海东部农业区、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部及三江源地区中东部为易受冰雹灾害影响的特高风险或高风险区域; 祁连山地区为中风险区, 而低风险区则位于柴达木盆地中、 西部. 区划结果与历史冰雹灾情基本吻合, 旨在为该区防灾减灾提供科学依据.     

中国自然灾害的区域规律研究进展

中国自然灾害的区域规律研究进展本项目在中国自然灾害数据库（ＤＢＮＤＣ）的支持下，综合分析了中国自然灾害系统的孕灾环境、承灾体与灾情形成机制，建立了刻画区域灾害的指标体系和定量分析模型，揭示了中国自然灾害的区域规律，提出了中国自然灾害综合区划方案。并对...     

Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009

Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations.     

Lightning fatalities in Swaziland: 2000–2007

An investigation is undertaken to analyze the human lightning fatalities in Swaziland. A total of 123 victims of lightning-related death were identified from the records of the Royal Swaziland Police Service and the local printed media for the period 2000–2007. An annual average fatality rate of 15.5 people per million, the highest recorded rate in the world, was obtained. The results also reveal that 66% were male, most (67%) of them were within the 10–39 age group with an average age of 28 years. Lightning fatalities occurred from September to May mainly in the afternoon (1400–1800 h). Deaths most commonly occurred indoors inside rural houses (17%), whilst walking (16%) and under a tree (14%). The incidents resulted in multiple fatalities in 22% of the cases with an average of 1.4 casualties per incident. The need for awareness campaigns, protection measures and detailed investigation is highlighted.     

Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada

This article summarizes research completed to assess the risk of lightning-related injuries and fatalities in Canada. Although lightning mortality has declined significantly over the past century, it remains a common meteorological hazard that regularly kills and injures. Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and emergency room visit records, and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related deaths and 92–164 injuries occur each year in Canada. The distribution of casualties reflects current provincial population and cloud-to-ground lightning densities. Consistent with similar studies in other developed nations, most lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada occur during the June-August summer season, coincident with peak lightning, and during the Thursday-Saturday period, most likely related to higher rates of participation in outdoor activities. The majority of victims are male, less than 46 years old, and engaged in outdoor recreational activities when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the study were found to underestimate both lightning mortality (36%) and morbidity (20–600%).

Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.     

The current status of lightning safety knowledge and the effects of lightning education modes on college students

Lightning is a natural hazard occurring frequently within the United States causing injury, damage, and death. To avoid this hazard, citizens need to self-mitigate their risk by taking action. The level of lightning safety knowledge must be known to determine if citizens have the tools to mitigate their risk. No studies have previously explored the status of lightning safety knowledge or the best way to educate about lightning safety. Therefore, the research community is unaware if citizens understand their risk and have the knowledge to mitigate their risk, or if current safety programs are effectively educating citizens. This study distributed two surveys to college students in Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. Following the pre-mode survey, students were shown videos, given brochures, or both with lightning safety information. A follow-up survey was then distributed. Participants were found to have a moderate level of lightning safety knowledge. Study areas of variable risk as well as past death rates were not found to affect the rate of knowledge. The presence of education programs were not affected by the variable risk. Misunderstood areas of lightning safety knowledge were associated mostly with the lightning and thunder relationship as well as safety before and after a thunderstorm. The education modes involving a video were the most effective at increasing knowledge. Gender displayed minor differences in gaining of lightning safety knowledge.     

Lightning fatalities in Australia, 1824–1991

Information on fatalities from lightning strikes has been extracted from a specially compiled database on natural hazards in Australia. Records dating from 1803–1991 indicate that at least 650 persons have been killed by lightning strikes. Maps and charts show the percentages of victims with respect to age, sex, locality, activity, and other circumstances of the strike. The majority of the 650 fatalities recorded have occurred along the more populous southeastern coast. The overall death rate, from 1910–1989, is 0.08 per 100 000 population. The annual number of lightning fatalities has decreased with time, from a death rate of 0.21 in 1910–1919 to 0.01 in 1980–1989. This trend is more pronounced when population figures are taken into account. The group that has been most at risk in Australia is that of males aged 15–19, followed by males aged 20–34. The male:female ratio of victims has decreased with time but is not approaching equality, being 11.6 in 1910–1919 and 5.3 in 1980–1989. The diurnal and monthly occurrences of lightning fatalities peak at 12.00–18.00 hours and November-February respectively. About 86% of fatalities have occurred outdoors and 14% have occurred indoors. Approximately three-fifths of fatalities have been work-related, and the group of workers that has traditionally been most at risk is that of land-workers. Approximately one-fifth of fatalities have been recreation-related, although this proportion has been increasing with time. The recreational activities of water sports, golf, and cricket have had the greatest number of lightning fatalities. Comparisons are made between these data and the results of other similar studies, both in Australia and overseas.     

Risk of injury and death from lightning in Northern Malawi

Rates of lightning mortality in communities on the western shore of Lake Malawi are higher than any other reported rate in the world: 419 strike victims per million people per annum and 84 deaths per million per annum. To document the background to this phenomenon, we conducted comprehensive household interviews with surviving victims and witnesses of every case of lightning strike in seven administrative areas around Nkhata Bay, Malawi. We find that the consequential lightning strikes are significantly more common in the rainy season and during the morning. Among those victims struck by lightning, there is an average ratio of approximately one death to four injuries, which is substantially higher than the commonly accepted ratio of 1:10. Children and adults are at equal risk of being struck. If struck, the probability of death is greater when the victim is outside in the open or outside under cover than indoors under a tin or thatched roof, but is unaffected by different kinds of footwear or whether it is raining. Reported explanations for strikes often center on witchcraft or other forms of social conflict. Our findings extend the study of consequential lightning strikes in the developing world and highlight cultural factors associated with this hazard. We end with recommendations for reducing the risk of lightning for rural populations.     

湖南省新宁县地质灾害经济损失评估

文章介绍了新宁县地质灾害特征,依据区内地质灾害经济损失评估的原则和方法,进行地质灾害现状评估和预测评估,为防治地质灾害提供科学借鉴。评估结果表明：（1）新宁县地质灾害灾情以轻度为主,其中,滑坡88处,崩塌10处,泥石流9处,地面塌陷6处,不稳定斜坡5处,共计118处;中度灾害及重度灾害各1处,皆为泥石流灾害。各类地质灾害已伤亡15人,毁坏城乡房屋333间,毁田44．5hm^2,毁路135m,直接经济损失878．1万元。（2）以新宁县地质灾害危险性分级指标为依据,按照点评估的要求,把新宁县地质灾害划分为高、中等、低三个危险性级别,其中高危险性级别9处,中等危险性级别49处,低危险性级别60处,地质灾害隐患点共威胁着4885人的生命和财产安全,威胁田地282．1hm^2,潜在最大经济损失为5042．1万元。     

Suitability evaluation of rural residential areas under the threat of geological disasters:A case study in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City

At present, the research on the layout of rural residential areas in the mountainous environment under the threat of earthquake disasters and frequent geological disasters is still rare. Taking Yinchanggou watershed in Longmenshan Town of Pengzhou City as an example, based on the summary of the geological hazard development characteristics in this area, the authors carried out the hazard risk zoning through 8 indexes. Then the geological hazard risk zoning was used as the primary factor to evaluate the suitability of rural residential areas. Besides, combined with the topographical conditions, socio-economic situation and ecological environment, a suitable evaluation index system for rural residential land under the threat of geological disasters was constructed, with the restrictive conditions of extremely high-risk areas, single geological hazards, slopes ≥25° and basic farmland protection areas. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the suitability of residential land in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City. The results show that high suitability areas account for 4.2% of the total area of the study area, moderate suitability areas 11.4%, low suitability areas 10.5%, and unsuitable areas 73.8%. The “suitable” areas for rural residential land are mainly distributed along the highway, and some are multiple “blocky” concentrated distribution areas. The terrain is flat and the traffic condition is convenient, which can provide some guidance for the selection of new rural residential locations.