基于MOD16的银川平原地表蒸散量时空特征及影响因素分析

地表蒸散发是陆地水文循环的重要组成部分,分析蒸散量时空变化特征是深入了解干旱区水文过程的基础。由于银川平原缺乏区域尺度实际蒸散量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列蒸散量的时空变化特征。基于MOD16A3地表蒸散量数据及研究区内气象站点实测数据,采用Theil Sen Median趋势度分析、MK突变检验及CA-Markov模型等方法,从时间与空间的角度分析2004—2019年银川平原地表蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素,预测2024年地表蒸散量的发展趋势。研究结果表明:2004—2019年银川平原蒸散量年际波动总体是增加趋势,MK突变检验结果显示2010年是蒸散量时序数据的突变点;银川平原实际蒸散量与潜在蒸散量空间分布格局、变化趋势均存在明显的差异性,蒸散量在近16年呈增加趋势,潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,符合干旱区蒸散发互补相关理论。采用CA-Markov模型对2024年银川平原地表蒸散量未来发展趋势进行预测,模拟结果显示在未来5年银川平原蒸散量仍呈增加趋势;蒸散量的时空变化受气候与人类活动的共同影响,蒸散量与气温、降水、日照时数呈正相关,与相对湿度呈负相关,土地利用结构影响年蒸散量的空间格局,呈现出水田>旱田>林地>草地>荒漠的规律。     

山东半岛2000～2014年蒸散发时空分异特征

蒸散发的时空格局分析对于合理利用水资源、水资源短缺问题的解决以及旱涝灾害预警和监测具有重要意义。基于山东半岛区域气象资料、MOD16遥感影像数据集及GIS背景信息,分析了山东半岛20002014年地表蒸散量的时空变化特征及趋势,并在年时间尺度上通过基于像元的相关分析法分析了蒸散量与降水和气温的相关性。研究结果表明:在研究时段内平均蒸散量年际波动较大,波动范围为397.9479.8mm,多年蒸散平均值为440.78mm;其中2003年和2008年蒸散量最大,分别超出平均值77.3mm和81.9mm。除水体、滨海湿地外,ET年平均值有明显的由东南向西北递减的特征,降水量和地表植被覆盖度的差异是其空间变异的主要因素。蒸散量与气象因素的相关分析表明,年平均降水量与蒸散量变化呈现明显的正相关关系（0.663）,温度与蒸散量呈显著负相关关系（-0.143）,NDVI与蒸散量相关性较弱（0.33）。     

长江源区高寒退化湿地地表蒸散特征研究

青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”,对东亚乃至全球大气水分循环都有非常显著的影响.高寒退化湿地是高原上生态多样性的保证,也是水汽循环和地表径流的重要源地,其地气之间水分交换不但可以反映气候变化,而且也对生态环境保护具有重要意义.以长江源区隆宝滩湿地连续一年、每10分钟一次的观测资料为基础,利用FAO Penman-Monteith方法分析了长江源区高寒退化湿地蒸散量的变化特征及其与环境因子之间的关系.结果表明：1）牧草生长期,潜在蒸散量日、月变化特征显著;实际蒸散量整体表现为冬小、夏大,夏季蒸散贡献最大.2）观测期间,蒸散量远大于降水量,水分亏损严重,局地蒸散对降水的贡献较高.3）土壤温度对蒸散发过程影响显著,尤其是表层5 cm地温与蒸散发相关性较好,土壤湿度变化表明其为蒸散发过程提供了充足的水分.4）全年变化中,气温是影响蒸散的主要因素.晴天中,高寒退化湿地实际蒸散量与辐射具有几乎相同的变化趋势,气温对蒸散量影响较小,蒸散量与相对湿度呈现显著的反相关.     

基于MODIS蒸散量数据的淮河流域蒸散发时空变化及影响因素分析

淮河流域作为我国重要的粮食产地,其水资源利用情况具有很高的研究价值。利用MODIS蒸散发数据产品（MOD16/ET）、降水和气温时序数据以及土地利用数据,探讨了淮河流域2000—2014年蒸散量时空变化特征及其对气候变化、土地利用的响应。结果表明:淮河流域蒸散量在空间上表现为南高北低,蒸散量多年均值为589.1 mm,夏季最高,冬季最低。整体而言,淮河流域15年间蒸散量具有先增加后减少的趋势;趋势分析结果显示,31.4%的地区蒸散量呈显著或极显著减少趋势,5.4%的地区蒸散量呈显著或极显著增加趋势,63.2%的地区蒸散量无显著变化。从蒸散量的气候因子分区看,52.0%的区域表现为非气候因子驱动型,44.1%的地区为降水驱动型,双因子驱动型和气温驱动型范围很小,面积占比分别为2.4%、1.5%,表明人类活动对蒸散发的影响巨大。四种植被覆盖土地利用蒸散量均值表现为林地>水田>旱地>草地。根据2000—2014年土地利用转变引起蒸散量变化的统计结果,草地转变为水田时蒸散量明显增加,旱地转变为草地、林地转变为旱地后蒸散量明显减少。     

玛纳斯河流域山前平原区蒸散发时空异质性分析

玛纳斯河流域气候干燥、蒸发强烈,准确估算蒸散发量对地下水资源评价及生态环境保护具有重要指导意义。以往蒸散发研究空间分辨率较低,已不能满足各水文地质分区景观格局演变引起的蒸散发细部变化研究,针对以往不足,文章基于SEBAL模型利用Landsat系列影像估算了近30年来玛纳斯河流域山前平原区蒸散发,并进一步探讨不同水文地质分区蒸散发时空分布特征及影响因素。结果表明,蒸散量空间分布按照水文地质分区呈现明显带状性,各水文地质分区日蒸散总量表现为戈壁带<荒漠带<绿洲带,时间尺度上全区蒸散总量呈上升趋势,且增大幅度逐渐变缓,各分区呈现绿洲带蒸散总量递增、戈壁带及荒漠带蒸散总量先减小后增大,各分区蒸散总量变化趋势是由各分区主地物类型蒸散量变化控制;通过对影响因素的分析可知日蒸散发量随气温的升高而升高,各地物日均蒸散发量与全区平均气温变化趋势一致;归一化植被指数与日蒸散发量在戈壁带与绿洲带呈现较好的正相关关系;地下水位埋深与日蒸散发量在绿洲带呈负相关,当地下水位埋深大于5. 5 m时,日蒸散发量趋于稳定。     

基于MOD16产品的淮河流域实际蒸散发时空分布

蒸散发是陆面过程中的重要环节,联系着陆面水循环和地表能量平衡.淮河流域地处中国南北气候过渡带,对淮河流域实际蒸散量时空变化的研究,有助于深入理解中国气候过渡带水循环对全球气候变化的响应.应用遥感技术对淮河流域MOD16_ET数据进行精度验证,并分析2000-2014年淮河流域蒸散发时空分布特征.结果表明:MOD16_ET产品在淮河流域内的精度总体上符合要求;淮河流域多年平均蒸散发的空间分布整体上呈南高北低,季节蒸散量的空间分布与年蒸散量的空间分布大体一致;近15 a淮河流域平均的实际蒸散量变化范围为531.7~634.0 mm,且存在不显著的下降趋势,实际蒸散量的季节变化大致呈单峰型分布,且季节变化较为明显,夏季(257.2 mm) >春季(143.7 mm) >秋季(120.7 mm) >冬季(66.6 mm);淮河流域西北部,夏、秋、冬三季的季节蒸散量变化速率对年蒸散量变化速率的贡献较大;淮河流域东部,春季的蒸散量变化速率占年蒸散量变化速率的比重较大.研究结果对于淮河流域内水资源短缺问题的解决、有限水资源的合理利用以及旱涝灾害的监测和预警有着重要的意义.     

基于SEBS模型和Landsat 8数据的黑河下游蒸散发时空特性分析

对黑河下游地区蒸散发量的估算及其时空特性的研究,有助于进一步了解流域水循环,合理利用水资源,防止生态环境进一步恶化。利用SEBS模型估算了黑河下游额济纳绿洲2014年15天的日蒸散量,将SEBS估算的日蒸散与不同下垫面5个站点的EC实测值进行对比,其均方根误差和确定性系数分别为1.2 mm、0.85（5个站点）,0.5 mm、0.96（2个站点）,表明SEBS模型的结果是合理的,可以适用于黑河下游额济纳绿洲地区的地表蒸散量的估算。同时分析了黑河下游蒸散发的时空变化规律,结果表明,黑河下游额济纳绿洲地区,蒸散发在时间上存在明显的季节变化规律：夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季;空间上呈现明显的沿河分布的趋势。不同土地覆被类型蒸散发有相似的季节变化特征,但其季节变化幅度并不相同,规律为：水体 > 耕地 > 灌丛地 > 草地 > 裸土地 > 沙地。     

寒旱区草地不对称增温现象对蒸散发的影响分析

选取1981—2020年海拉尔河流域及周边地区气象站点观测资料, 结合水文数据, 利用适用于植被稀疏下垫面的BTOP(Block-wise use of TOPMODEL)分布式水文模型估算区域蒸散发量, 进而在不对称增温现象影响下, 分析其对蒸散发的影响特征。结果表明: ①流域内1981—2020年不对称增温现象显著, 主要表现为因夜间温度升幅较大为主的昼夜不对称增温及地表温度升幅较大为主的地气不对称增温; ②影响蒸散发的主要气象因子依次为相对湿度、风速、地气温差、地表温度和昼夜温差, 且相对湿度、昼夜温差及地气温差与蒸散发量变化趋势相反, 其中相对湿度及风速影响强度年际变化平稳, 温度因子影响强度则逐年增强; ③不对称增温对于流域蒸散发量的影响逐年增强, 地表增温速率的增强是造成地气不对称增温的主要原因, 在此影响下, 区域蒸散发呈现减小趋势, 故在探究蒸散发量变化原因时, 温差变化不可忽视。     

格尔木河流域山前平原区蒸散量的分布特征

格尔木河流域干旱少雨,蒸发强烈,为格尔木地区经济发展提供水资源保障。蒸散发是干旱内陆地区地表水及地下水排泄的主要方式,准确估算研究区长时间序列的蒸散量时空分布及其影响因素,对研究区水资源合理开发利用及生态环境保护具有重要意义。传统的蒸散量估算方法难以获取大尺度时空范围参数且估算结果误差较大。文章以格尔木河流域山前平原区为研究区,应用连续序列的MODIS数据及GLDAS气象数据基于SEBS模型估算格尔木河流域山前平原区蒸散量,利用线性回归法及Mann-Kendall显著性检验法分析其连续时间序列内的变化趋势,分析其影响因素。结果表明:研究区蒸散量从2001到2016年总体呈增长趋势,盐沼平原及山前戈壁砾质平原大部分地区蒸散量变化在16年间呈稳定不变状态,盐湖区和绿洲平原呈显著增长趋势。研究区16年间不同地貌蒸散量夏季增减幅度均远大于其他三季,冬季变化幅度最小。     

青藏高原中部高寒草甸蒸散发特征及其影响因素

蒸散发作为水量平衡和能量平衡的重要组成部分,其变化对于农业、生态和水文具有重要的影响。全球变暖导致青藏高原上冻土活动层加厚,改变大气和土壤的水热交换过程,为明确唐古拉多年冻土区的蒸散发在全球变暖大背景下的变化趋势,依托中国科学院冰冻圈国家重点实验室唐古拉站,利用小型称重式蒸渗仪的观测数据分析了2007-2013年蒸散发的变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：2007-2013年草地生长季实际蒸散发总量呈现递增的趋势;在草地生长季内,草地生长中期的总蒸散量最大,生长初期的总蒸散量最小,但是日蒸散量则是在生长初期最大,生长后期最小;无降水日,草地的蒸散发主要受到净辐射和气温的影响,降雨日的蒸散发则主要受到净辐射和风速的影响。     

Impacts of climate change on aridity index and its spatiotemporal variation in the Loess Plateau of China,from 1961 to 2014

The Loess Plateau, the transitional zone between humid and arid regions of China, is an important region to examine the regional hydrological cycle and variation in humid and arid regions under global climate change. Aridity index (AI), the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (ET₀), is an important indicator of regional climate conditions and is also used to classify drylands. In this study, data from 51 national meteorological stations during the period of 1961–2014 were collected to estimate the AI in the Loess Plateau. Results show that a downward trend in annual AI was detected and the boundary of the drylands region based on the AI was expanded across the Loess Plateau over the period of 1961–2014. The spatiotemporal variability of P was the main cause in the AI variations. Furthermore, data analysis suggested the occurrences of the extreme minimum AI values were mostly affected by fluctuations of the two factors (ET₀ and P) rather than its corresponding trend during the period. Thus, this study indicated the major driving factor of AI and the relationship between extreme AI values and the global climate anomalies in the Loess Plateau region, and meanwhile, provided an understanding of the impacts of climate change on hydrological cycle in the Loess Plateau of China.     

Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and controlling factors: Implications for climatic drought in karst areas

Variations in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns. The accurate estimation of ET₀ is still a challenge due to the lack of meteorological data and the heterogeneity of hydrological system. Although there is an increasing trend in extreme drought events with global climate change, the relationship between ET₀ and aridity index in karst areas has been poorly studied. In this study, we used the Penman–Monteith method based on a long time series of meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 to calculate ET₀ in a typical karst area, Guilin, Southwest China. The temporal variations in climate variables, ET₀ and aridity index (AI) were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine the climatic characteristics, associated controlling factors of ET₀ variations, and further to estimate the relationship between ET₀ and AI. We found that the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures had increased significantly during the 65-year study period, while sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity exhibited significant decreasing trends. The annual ET₀ showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of ?8.02 mm/10a. However, significant increase in air temperature should have contributed to the enhancement of ET₀, indicating an “evaporation paradox”. In comparison, AI showed a slightly declining trend of ?0.0005/a during 1951–2015. The change in sunshine duration was the major factor causing the decrease in ET₀, followed by wind speed. AI had a higher correlation with precipitation amount, indicating that the variations of AI was more dependent on precipitation, but not substantially dependent on the ET₀. Although AI was not directly related to ET₀, ET₀ had a major contribution to seasonal AI changes. The seasonal variations of ET₀ played a critical role in dryness/wetness changes to regulate water and energy supply, which can lead to seasonal droughts or water shortages in karst areas. Overall, these findings provide an important reference for the management of agricultural production and water resources, and have an important implication for drought in karst regions of China.     

Quantitative analysis of the driving forces causing declines in marsh wetland landscapes in the Honghe region, northeast China, from 1975 to 2006

The Sanjiang Plain has the most representative and largest concentration of inland freshwater wetlands in China, most of which have been degraded or have disappeared as a result of agricultural development and climatic change since the 1950s. To better understand the spatial and temporal variation and driving forces of marsh reduction, this study investigated variations of marsh reduction in the Honghe region of the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China over a 30-year period, and analyzed the role of the different driving forces separately and their combined effect on marsh reduction and identified what driving forces have played key roles on the reduction in different periods. Nine natural and anthropogenic variables from remote sensing, GIS data and field surveys, such as precipitation, temperature, precipitation anomaly, population density, agricultural population density, per capita GDP, distance to road, distance to canal and distance to settlement, were evaluated on their impact on observed variations of marsh reduction between 1975 and 2006. The results show that all of these driving forces have significant influences on the decline of the marsh area, and the combination of driving forces that has crucial impacts on marsh reduction varied largely from 1975 to 2006. During 1975–1989, it was the construction of canal and road networks in farms and changes in average annual precipitation that led to marsh reduction. After 1989, the reduction was mainly related to increases in agricultural population, per capita GDP and settlements. These findings may help understand the declines or degradation of marsh areas and provide an empirical and theoretical base for managers, who design and implement wetland management and planning.     

气候变化与人类活动对太湖西苕溪流域水文水资源影响甄别

采用累积距平曲线与Mann-Kendall法对太湖西苕溪流域降水、潜在蒸散发和径流序列进行趋势分析。结果表明,流域径流与潜在蒸散发在95%的置信水平下为下降趋势,而降水无显著变化趋势。为定量甄别气候变化与人类活动对流域水文过程的影响,探寻流域水文变化的主要驱动因素,采用敏感性系数法与改进前后的双累积曲线法分析了气候变化与人类活动对太湖西苕溪流域1972~2010年水文过程的影响。结果表明,气候变化与人类活动对流域径流变化影响的贡献分别为37%~42%和58%~63%,人类活动影响大于气候变化。     

三江平原地下水流场演化趋势及影响因素

近年来,三江平原部分区域地下水位呈持续下降的态势,引起广大学者和相关部门的高度关注,为了查明三江平原地下水流场时空演化规律,揭示其主要影响因素,以三江平原1980年72组及2019、2020年同期1 092组地下水位统测数据和44组国家地下水监测数据为基础,应用ArcGIS插值分析、栅格代数运算、对比分析等方法,查明了三江平原地下水流场时空演化特征,阐明了不同影响因素对地下水流场演化的控制作用。结果表明:与1980年相比,三江平原地下水位整体呈下降趋势。西部平原区地下水位累计降幅1～5 m的区域面积2.6×104 km2;东部建三江垦区累计降幅大于5 m的区域面积为1.17×104 km2,其中,累计降幅大于10 m的区域面积为3 400 km2,地下水位年均降幅约0.29 m。地下水开采引起地下水流场变化,“西砂、东黏”的水文地质条件促使区域地下水降幅的时空演化差异;水田种植规模的不断扩大引起地下水超采,浅地表黏土层阻挡降水入渗补给,地下水无法实现以丰补欠自平衡,造成了建三江垦区地下水位的持续下降。本研究成果为进一步查清三江平原地下水变化规律和现状特征奠定了基础,为科学指导地下水资源合理开发利用和管理提供了技术支持。     

Estimating groundwater evapotranspiration rates using diurnal water-table fluctuations in a semi-arid riparian zone

In semi-arid climates, phreatophytes draw on shallow aquifers, and groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_G) is a principal component of groundwater budgets. Diurnal water table fluctuations, which often are a product of ET_G, were monitored in the riparian zone of Red Canyon Creek, Wyoming, USA. These fluctuations were higher in a riparian wetland (2–36 mm) than a grass-covered meadow (1–6 mm). The onset and cessation of water-table fluctuations correspond to daily temperatures relative to freezing. Spatial differences were due to vegetation type and specific yield, while temporal changes were due to vegetation dormancy. Ratios of ET_G to potential evapotranspiration (PET), K _c,GW, were similar to ratios of actual evapotranspiration (ET) to PET, K _c, in semi-arid rangelands. Before vegetation senescence, K _c,GW increased between precipitation events, suggesting phreatophytes pull more water from the saturated zone as soil moisture decreases. In contrast, K _c decreases with soil moisture following precipitation events as ET becomes increasingly water-limited. Error in ET_G is primarily from estimates of specific yield (S _y), which is difficult to quantify in heterogeneous sediments. ET_G values may be more reliable because the range of acceptable S _y is smaller than K _c and S _y does not change with vegetation type or soil moisture.     

1975-2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应

为探讨渭河上游径流的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应,选取1975-2011年河流实测径流量进行计算和分析. 结果表明：近40 a来,渭河上游径流总体呈明显下降趋势,其中,20世纪90年代前处于丰水期,90年代后进入枯水期,进入21世纪有明显增多趋势. 径流年际丰枯变化激烈,枯水年的发生概率高、持续性强,最长的连枯年份达8 a. 径流量集中在汛期,各年代的分配峰型有所不同,在70、80年代为7、9月双峰,之后变为单峰型分布. 流域内气候增暖明显,降水减少,蒸发加剧;90年代为明显的暖干型气候,21世纪初期气候向暖湿型转变的过程对径流的增加十分有利. 径流对气候变化有较强响应,但响应程度随时间变化而变化. 通过定量分析气候因子对径流变化的贡献值,发现由于气候增暖导致潜在蒸散量的加剧对径流变化的负贡献达60%以上,绝对值高于降水量的正贡献.     

Study on the Climatic Change Features of Hebei Plain

Precipitation and groundwater are essential to water circulation and they mutually influence. Groundwater is the main water supply source in Hebei Plain. On the other hand, atmospheric precipitation infiltration recharge is the main supply source of the groundwater in this area. Therefore, the studies on Hebei Plain climatic change features are of great significance to further analyze the influences of climatic changes on groundwater resources. This paper selected 10 ground climatological stations in Hebei Plain in terms of daily precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution features of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the minimum temperature of Hebei Plain in recent 50 years increased significantly; the maximum temperature basically is stable; and the mean temperature presents an obviously increasing trend. In the spatial distribution, it gradually decreases from southwest to northeast on the whole and gradually tends to increase from the coastal to inland. The precipitation in recent 50 years owns obvious interannual change features and spatial distribution features, with a trend of overall periodic decrease and significant decrease of extreme precipitation. The annual mean precipitation intensity and annual mean extreme precipitation intensity gradually increased from piedmont plain to coastal plain. Hebei Plain has a warming and drying development trend on the whole. In space, piedmont plain belongs to the high-temperature and few-water area; coastal plain lies in low-temperature and much-water area; and central plain is in transitional zone. The climatic change and human activities are two influential factors of groundwater resources. Further revealing of the climatic change features of different geomorphic types and measuring and distinguishing of the influences of climatic change and human activities on groundwater remain to be further explored.