土样比重的测量不确定度评定

土样比重的测量不确定度既判定了自身的可靠性,同时又影响了通过比重及其他一些参数换算得到的孔隙率、饱和度等指标的准确性。选用物理性质较为均匀的原状粉土做样品,基于《土工试验方法标准》(GB/T50123-1999),通过比重瓶法重复测量了样品的比重。根据《测量不确定度评定与表示》(JJF1059-1999)的要求,分析了试验过程中影响因素的主要来源,建立了测量比重不确定度的计算模式,较系统地对其不确定度进行了评定。结果表明:土的比重测量误差主要由称量及不均匀性两个因素引起。试验条件下的土样比重测量结果的扩展不确定度为0.005。     

不确定度评定及在产品符合性判定中的应用金属铟中锡的 ICP-AES 测定方法

建立了金属铟中锡的 ICP-AES 测定方法过程的数学模型,通过分析得到了对测定结果正确度影响的不确定度来源,评定了各个不确定度度分量、合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。并通过对标准方法的重复性、再现性等概念的讨论,说明了不确定度值在产品等级判定上的使用。     

地质标准物质不确定度评估方法初探

在分析地质标准物质标准值不确定度来源的基础上,提出了在多个实验室协作研制地质标准物质时,协作单位除提供重现性检测数据外,还应分别提供各项目检测数据的合成不确定度。分析方法或实验室之间的平均值的合成不确定度按不等精度方法处理。标准物质标准值的不确定度由分析方法、检测实验室、样品均匀性和样品稳定性的不确定度合成后乘以扩展不确定度置信水平下的包含因子而得。     

金属铟中锡的ICP-AES测定方法不确定度评定及在产品符合性判定中的应用

建立了金属铟中锡的ICP-AES测定方法过程的数学模型,通过分析得到了对测定结果正确度影响的不确定度来源,评定了各个不确定度度分量、合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。并通过对标准方法的重复性、再现性等概念的讨论,说明了不确定度值在产品等级判定上的使用。     

电感耦合等离子体光谱法测定农业地质调查土壤样品中铈的不确定度评定

采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》，以等离子体发射光谱法测定土壤中的稀土元素铈为例，对测定结果进行不确定度评定。分析了不确定度的重要来源，包括溶液制备过程中引入的不确定度、样品称量引入的不确定度、标准物质外标法测量不确定度及仪器重复测定的不确定度。提供了引入不确定度各参数的采集和计算方法，对各不确定度分量进行分析计算，最后合成标准不确定度，通过乘以95％概率下的扩展因子2，获得测量结果的扩展不确定度。     

黑色页岩铁同位素标准物质的研制

本文选择宜昌三峡地区九龙湾剖面采集的黑色页岩作为黑色页岩Fe同位素备选标准物质, 命名为CAGS-BS。使用单因素方差分析法对CAGS-BS进行均匀性检验; 使用t检验对其在24个月中四次分析的数据进行长期稳定性的检验, 结果显示均匀性和稳定性良好, 满足标准物质的要求。黑色页岩Fe同位素标准物质采用多家实验室协作定值的方法确定特征量值。协作定值的单位包括: 中国地质科学院地质研究所, 中国科学技术大学, 中国地质大学(北京), 天津大学和中国科学院广州地球化学研究所。剔除了可疑值之后的数据符合正态分布, 可以采用算术平均法进行标准物质的定值。标准物质不确定度由协作测定的不确定度分量(uchar)、批内瓶间差异引起的不均匀性不确定度分量(ubb’)和实验室保存引起的长期不稳定性不确定度分量(ults)共同确定, 总不确定度为扩展不确定度, 包含因子(k)等于2。得到CAGS-BS的特征值及不确定度为: δ56FeIRMM-014/‰ = 0.10 ± 0.04。该标准物质可用于黑色页岩样品的化学流程评价和验证、质谱仪的校正及整个过程的分析质量控制。     

土的密度测量不确定度的评定

建立环刀法测量土的密度数学模型,分析产生测量不确定度的主要来源,采用积累的数据及外部提供的有效数据,在分别进行A、B类相对标准不确定度分量评定的基础上再进行合成相对标准不确定度评定.结果用于日常检测报告的测量不确定度项报出.     

X射线荧光光谱法检测Au质量分数不确定度的评定——以样品Au750为例

为了使测量结果更加科学,其不确定度的评定就越来越重要。在运用X射线荧光光谱法检测贵金属质量分数的过程中,测量系统以标准曲线法为基础,测量仪器直接给出测量结果,故可将该测量方法等同于直接测量。以样品Au750为例,探讨了测量不确定度的评定过程与步骤。结果显示,该方法测量结果的不确定度来源主要与测量系统有关,其主要的不确定度分量有标准样品的给定值与误差、仪器的分辨率、准确度以及校准不确定度等,忽略了环境及操作不当的人为影响因素。该评定过程简化,评定方法趋干合理。     

火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中银含量的测量不确定度评定

采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》，以火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中的银含量为例，对测量结果进行不确定度评定。分析了不确定度的重要来源，包括称样质量、标准工作溶液、工作曲线拟合、试液定容体积及测量重复性等引入的不确定度分量组成。对各不确定度分量进行分析计算，求得标准不确定度为1．56，扩展不确定度为3．12。     

石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定农业地质调查土壤样品中镉的不确定度评定

用实例对石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定土壤样品中镉元素的不确定度进行评定,采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》对测量结果进行评估。分析了不确定度的主要来源,包括测量浓度的不确定度、体积的不确定度、称量不确定度及测量重复性引起的不确定度。评估了镉含量的合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。对于镉含量为0.42×10-6的土壤样品,其扩展不确定度为0.04×10-6。     

Optimistic bias and the consistency of hurricane track forecasts

Forecast graphics depicting a hurricane track and uncertainty cone have become pervasive in the communication of hurricane risk. This study examined whether the effect of hurricane tracks on risk perception is influenced by the consistency and optimistic bias. Specifically, it focused on the differences between forecasts that remain consistent compared to those that veer away for a forecast period. To answer the research question, this study conducted online surveys in which respondents from two coastal universities were asked risk perception questions based on a series of forecast graphics. Other variables measured included dispositional optimism, general hurricane risk perception, and hurricane information use. Optimistic bias was calculated from two of the risk perception questions. Results did not indicate strong support for an influence of optimistic bias or changing forecast track on risk perception. There was limited evidence that a veering track scenario may lead to differences in risk judgments about another location, but most measures of personal risk estimation were not influenced by the track. Dispositional optimism was not related to optimistic bias or many of the risk perception variables tested, including general hurricane risk perception. There did appear to be an interaction between track scenario and optimistic bias with more relationships being significant among those who received the consistent track scenario.     

Influence of model type,bias and input parameter variability on reliability analysis for simple limit states in soil–structure interaction problems

ABSTRACT

A general closed-form solution for the true probability of failure of a simple limit state function with one load term and one resistance term is derived. The formulation considers contributions due to model type, uncertainty in method bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety. Example calculations are presented using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定电子电器和玩具无铅焊锡中银的不确定度评定

建立了电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定无铅焊锡中银的数学模型,对数学模型中各个参数的不确定度来源进行评定,包括称样质量、配制标准工作溶液、工作曲线拟合、试液定容体积及测量重复性等引入的不确定度。计算检测结果的合成标准不确定度为0.02%,扩展不确定度为0.04%。     

Regional geochemistry of trace elements in Chesapeake Bay sediments

The concentrations of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in 177 surface sediment samples from throughout Chesapeake Bay are reported. Analyses were made of both unfractionated samples and the <63 μm fractions. Analytical uncertainty, always less than ±10%, controlled reproducibility in analyses of the <63 μm fractions, but sampling variance controlled reproducibility in the unfractionated samples, especially when coarse-grained sediments were being analyzed. Sediments in the northernmost part of the bay are enriched relative to average continental crust in all elements except Cr. This reflects the composition of dissolved and suspended material being delivered to that region by the Susquehanna River. The enriched sediments appear not to be transported south of Baltimore in significant quantily. Zinc, cadmium, and lead are enriched relative to average crust throughout the bay and in most other estuaries in the eastern United States.     

土壤样品中稀土元素的高分辨电感耦合等离子质谱分析及其不确定度的评定探讨

在敞开体系中,用HF、HNO_3和HClO_4溶解电感耦合等离子体质谱法同时测定土壤样品中的15种稀土元素.在高分辨等离子体质谱仪(Element2)上建立了土壤样品中稀土元素含量的ICP-MS分析方法,经土壤国家一级标准物质分析验证,结果与标准值相符,测定的15种稀土元素的相对标准偏差均小于10%,加标回收率为96.5%~114.7%.实验表明,该方法不但操作简便快速,而且具有灵敏度高、检出限低,重现性好等优点,举例说明了测量不确定度的评定程序.     

Updating of Population Parameters and Credibility of Discriminant Analysis

The uncertainty of classification in discriminant analysis may result from the original characteristics of the phenomena studied, the approach of inferring population parameters, and the credibility of the parameters which are estimated by geologist or statistician. A credibility function and a significance function are proposed. Both can be used to appraise the uncertainty of classification. The former is involved with the uncertainty resulting from the errors in the reward-penalty matrix, while the latter may be involved with the uncertainty resulting from the original characteristics of the phenomena studied and the statistical approach. Inappropriate classified results may be originated from the bias estimates of population parameters (mean vector and covariance matrix), which are estimated by bias samples. These bias estimates can be updated by constraining the varying region of the mean vector. The equations for updating Bayesian estimates of the mean vector and the covariance matrix are demonstrated if the mean vector is restricted to a subregion of the entire real space. Results for a gas reservoir indicate that the discriminant rules based on the updated equations are more efficient than the traditional discriminant rules.     

小样本岩土参数下土质边坡可靠度分析的条件概率法

岩土勘察取样数量有限是土工参数统计不确定性的重要来源,小样本条件下参数估计偏差向可靠度计算环节传递,导致分析结果呈现不确定性。针对小样本岩土参数 X ,围绕样本平均值X构造具有不同随机偏离程度的一系列假想参数总体均值 μ *,以μ_i*的不同取值为发生条件P(B_i)、对应的可靠度计算结果P_fi为条件概率P(A|B_i),基于Bayes全概率公式,建立了小样本岩土参数下计算边坡失效概率P(A)的条件概率分析方法。研究表明:参数正态总体的样本数量有限条件下,以t分布函数对总体均值μ发生抽样估计偏差(X-μ)的概率进行量化,以此作为权值对可靠度条件概率进行修正,得到更趋近可靠度真值的分析结果;由简单土坡算例验证,较之将样本平均值X替代总体均值μ进行可靠度计算的传统直接代入法,条件概率法能减小因参数估计偏差导致的计算结果离散性,一定程度上可提高小样本岩土参数下的边坡可靠性分析精准度。     

Direct Determination of Lead Isotope Ratios by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry in Lake Sediment Samples

A direct method for the determination of lead isotopic ratios by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-quadrupole mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-QMS) is presented. Samples of lake sediments were ground and pressed as pellets before being analysed. Mass bias was corrected by analysing an external calibration sample manufactured with pure silica doped with NIST SRM 981 solution. The efficiency of the mass bias correction was checked by comparing the ICP-MS data with lead isotopic ratios determined by thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS). The average long term reproducibilities were 0.40%, 0.40%, 0.20% and 0.30% (RSD) respectively for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratios. The method was applied to the study of lake sediment samples, in order to determine the amount and origin of historical contamination by lead.     

常压环境下铅笔芯的质谱放电行为研究

铅笔芯内所含石墨和黏土的混合比例如果不符合国家标准,将不利于计算机读卡设备正确识读和非专业人士鉴定.本文采用常压质谱法对不同黑度(石墨含量)、硬度的铅笔芯进行分析,为实现铅笔品质的快速鉴别提供了一种有效的技术手段.该方法直接将铅笔芯作为电离装置,在高电压作用下以空气(相对湿度40％)为介质,铅笔芯产生电晕放电,其放电行为能够对质谱信号产生直接影响.实验优化了工作条件,分析了6种型号铅笔芯(4B、3B、2B、HB、H和2H)中石墨含量与其质谱信号之间的关系,并结合主成分分析(PCA)对不同型号铅笔芯进行区分.结果表明,不同型号铅笔芯的放电行为对质谱信号产生较大影响,质谱信号随铅笔芯中石墨含量的增多而增强;6种型号铅笔芯区分正确率高达99％以上.此方法操作简单且可重复性强,可用于市场上不同品质铅笔芯的快速鉴定.