基于震级上限估计的渤海海啸危险性与共振特征研究

根据渤海区域地质断层特征和历史地震活动规律,分析得出渤海内潜在最大震级上限为8.1级,并对该海啸源可能的两组震源机制分别进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示：渤海局部区域海啸波幅最大可达 1.5 m,最大流速可达2.8~3.0 m/s,具备造成灾害损失的风险。在该海啸源情景下,渤海海盆内易激发长期的水位自由振荡,部分区域水位振荡可持续 20 h以上,振荡波幅的大小与海啸首波波幅相当或更大。基于快速傅里叶变换方法对海啸波进行频谱分析,部分长周期频谱成分满足区域固有共振特征。因此,渤海内一旦发生海啸,不仅要关注海啸首波可能造成的灾害性影响,还要密切关注海啸首波到达后,可能产生的长时间、长周期的海啸波共振以及往复式海啸流造成的影响。     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

一个覆盖太平洋区域的地震海啸波幅预报系统及检验

基于线性长波方程和缓变地形近岸波幅格林公式建立了覆盖整个太平洋区域的准实时地震海啸波幅预报系统。系统利用了GPU并行加速技术，可在90 s之内完成太平洋区域32 h的海啸传播计算和中国沿海城市岸段的波幅特征值预报。筛选了自2006年以来的9次发生在太平洋区域，矩震级（Mw）超过8.0且资料丰富的历史地震海啸事件，对预报系统进行了后报检验。结果表明，线性长波模型能够很好的模拟海啸在大洋中的传播过程；格林公式能够较为准确的估算缓变水深和开阔地形条件下的近岸海啸最大波幅，波幅预警准确率可达80%，基本满足海啸预警需求。以2011年日本Mw9.0地震海啸为例，评估了该系统对中国城市岸段的波幅预警能力，结论基本合理。需要注意的是，利用该系统计算对海啸源特别敏感的近场海啸波幅可能产生较大偏差。提出了若要进一步提高定量海啸波幅预警的准确率，可从以下两个方面加强研究和业务实践:一是采用多数据联合反演方法提升海啸源的精度；二是提高格林公式的适用性，或者构建高效的近岸精细化海啸数值预报系统。     

一次北印度洋海啸的数值模拟研究

对2012年4月11日(世界时)发生在北印度洋的一次地震海啸进行了模拟研究,给出了海啸模拟所需地震参数的获取途径,以及海啸波初始场的建立方法,分析了该海啸过程最大波幅分布和海啸波传播波时分布,并与测站实测值进行了对比。结果表明,海啸波的能量传播方向存在不均匀性,能量传播集中方向的波幅较大,具有更强的危害性。     

日本南海海槽地震海啸对我国东海沿岸影响

本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。     

“3.11”日本地震海啸及南海和琉球群岛假想地震海啸对福建近海影响的数值模拟

福建地处西北太平洋沿岸,在环太平洋地震带附近,是海啸灾害潜在风险区.＂3.11＂日本地震海啸,福建沿岸验潮站就监测到其海啸波.利用CTSU地震海啸数值模式,模拟了＂3.11＂日本地震海啸对福建近海的影响,模拟结果与实况较吻合.同时,利用该数值模式模拟分析了可能来自于琉球群岛和南海附近海域的地震海啸对福建近海的影响,分析表明,如果在琉球群岛海域（28.0°N,129.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4.5 h左右抵达福建北部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达2 m;如果在马尼拉海沟附近海域（17.5°N,119.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4 h左右抵达福建南部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达3 m,均会给福建沿海地区带来灾害性影响.为此,本文亦针对性提出了防范地震海啸的一些措施与建议,为福建省海洋防灾减灾提供参考.     

温州瓯江口浅滩地区越洋海啸影响评估计算

日本“3·11”地震海啸事件发生后,为了避免灾难重演,各滨海国家在加强海啸基础理论研究、改进海啸预警系统的同时,还应对沿海重大工程及重点保障目标进行地震海啸灾害风险排查及再评估工作;对在建的重大基础设施和社会经济功能区划应进行全面的地震海啸安全论证.在此背景下,该文首先概括总结了我国东南沿海的地震海啸风险及历史海啸事件时空分布,简要介绍了越洋海啸传播特征.海啸源选取基于潜在可能最大海啸,选取环太平洋地震带上的潜在地震海啸源,进行温州瓯江口地区越洋海啸影响评估计算.海啸数值计算模型采用美国康奈尔大学的COMCOT模型,利用该模型对2010年智利海啸、2011年日本海啸进行了近场、远场模拟验证,计算结果与观测数据吻合良好,模型可信.应用联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(UNESCO/IOC)太平洋海啸预警系统的海啸危险性等级标准,结合评估计算结果,对瓯江口浅滩地区海啸危险性进行等级划分,获得了该地区的海啸危险性初步评估结果.结果表明:在所选的10个潜在或历史海啸源产生的越洋海啸对研究区域的影响均小于100 cm,此规模的海啸不易对该地区造成灾害性影响.研究结果对于指导该地区的海啸灾害风险评估及风险排查具有一定的参考价值.     

渤海地震海啸发生的可能性分析

本文根据地震海啸的产生条件，通过对渤海的有关环境特征，历史资料和现代资料的分析，认为渤海无论是自身还是由外海传入，都不易产生地震海啸。     

河北省海啸灾害风险评估和区划研究

基于康奈尔多电网耦合海啸模型（COMCOT）数值模式建立研究区海啸数值模型,利用模型对6个地震海啸源情景场进行模拟计算,通过对各海啸源下数值模拟结果的综合分析,确定研究区海啸灾害危险性分布;根据土地利用类型数据资料确定研究区承灾体脆弱性分布;通过危险性、脆弱性评估成果,综合确定研究区海啸灾害风险性评估和区划成果。结果表明：河北省遭受海啸灾害风险最高等级为Ⅱ级,主要分布在唐山市和秦皇岛市沿海区域;沧州市沿海区域海啸灾害风险等级较小,为Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级。     

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。     

Effect of the Bottom Topography on Tsunami Propagation in the East （Japan） Sea

A study of tsunami events in the East （Japan） Sea using continuous Galerkin finite element model, aiming at reproducing tsunami waves generated by underwater earthquakes in 1983 and 1993 respectively has been performed focusing on the geographic extent of a topographic feature in the East （Japan） Sea. Numerical models can be the proper tools to study the combined effects of realistic topography. Subsequently, using the FEM based two-dimensional model we have simulated the smoothed and flattened topographic effects by removal of Yamato Rise and seamounts for the cases of tthe 1983 Central region earthquake tsunami and the 1993 southwestern Hokkaido earthquake tsunami. The results have shown that there will be higher tsunamis along the eastern coasts of Korea in general except some areas, like Sokcho with removal of topographic highs, thus providing complicated bottom topography of the East （Japan） Sea as effective tsunami energy scattering.     

Tsunami hazard and mitigation analysis for bathing beaches in China based on numerical simulations

Bathing beaches are usually the first to suffer disasters when tsunamis occur, owing to their proximity to the sea. Several large seismic fault zones are located off the coast of China. The impact of each tsunami scenario on Chinese bathing beaches is different. In this study, numerical models of the worst tsunami scenarios associated with seismic fault zones were considered to assess the tsunami hazard of bathing beaches in China. Numerical results show that tsunami waves from the Pacific Ocean could affect the East China Sea coast through gaps between the Ryukyu Islands. The Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts would be threatened by a tsunami from Ryukyu Trench, and the coasts of Hainan and Guangdong provinces would be threatened by a tsunami from the Manila Trench. The tsunami hazard associated with the Philippine Trench scenario needs particular attention. Owing to China’s offshore topography, the sequential order of tsunami arrival times to coastal provinces in several tsunami scenarios is almost the same. According to the tsunami hazard analysis results, Yalongwan Beach and eight other bathing beaches are at the highest hazard level. A high-resolution numerical calculation model was established to analyze the tsunami physical characteristics for the high-risk bathing beaches. To explore mitigating effects of a tsunami disaster, this study simulated tsunami propagation with the addition of seawalls. The experimental results show that the tsunami prevention seawalls constructed in an appropriate shallow water location have some effect on reducing tsunami hazard. Seawalls separated by a certain distance work even better. The analysis results can provide a scientific reference for subsequent preventive measures such as facility construction and evacuation.     

马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对华南沿海的影响

马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计M_w 7.5、M_w 8.1和M_w 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, M_w 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; M_w 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; M_w 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构...     

渤海生态系统健康评价及对策研究

根据2014~2016年渤海各航次监测数据,选择22项因子构建表征研究区水环境、沉积环境、生态系统健康状态的评价指标体系,利用AHP层次分析方法对渤海生态系统的健康状况进行了评价。结果表明,渤海综合生态指数CEI为0.643,健康等级为中级,表明渤海生态系统整体处于亚健康的状态。生态健康较差和差的区域主要集中在莱州湾-渤海湾及其毗连地带的黄河三角洲地区;唐山-秦皇岛-葫芦岛近海及其纵深海域大体处于中级健康水准;渤海中部海区及其毗连的渤海海峡区域,海洋生态健康水平较高。根据评价结果,认为陆源输入、围填海工程是莱州湾和渤海湾的主要胁迫因子,并探讨了相应对策,以期为渤海的综合管理提供决策支持。     

深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究

以COMCOT海啸模式和TPXO7.1全球潮汐模式为基础,采用三层嵌套网格,建立了南海海啸与潮汐耦合计算模型,分析深圳海域海啸和潮汐相互作用。潮汐计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,高、低潮位平均误差小于15 cm,20 cm;在潮汐验证的基础上,以马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸源为案例,进行8.0,9.0级地震海啸与潮汐耦合情景模拟计算,计算结果表明,9级地震海啸在深圳海域外海波高为140~150 cm,如先行波为正波发生在高潮时将产生异常高潮位,负波发生在低潮时将产生异常低潮位,线性叠加计算结果偏大,在25.0 cm之内,到达时间差异小于6 min。     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.