Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas(OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to(1/24)° from the global model with(1/2)°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth(MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores(SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value(more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.     

Application of a proportional-integral control for the estimation of static formation temperatures in oil wells

A strategy based on proportional-integral (PI) feedback control was applied to solve an inverse heat transfer problem for estimating static formation temperatures (SFTs) from logged temperatures in oil wells. The PI control feedbacks the error between logged and simulated temperatures during the shut-in time process, existing SFT proposal. Thus, mathematically speaking an inverse heat transfer problem was solved in this way, since SFT represents the initial conditions (which are unknown) to solve the partial differential equations governing the heat transfer process in the wellbore-formation system. The mathematical model considers transient convective heat transfer due to circulation losses to the rock surrounding a well. The methodology was tested analyzing two oil wells (MB-3007 and MB-3009) from the Gulf of Mexico and results were compared against two classic methods. The method presented in this work needs only one temperature measurement for each fixed depth to estimate the SFT.     

CMPI5多模式对南海上层海洋热含量的模拟比较

Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.     

渤海中部海底恒温层温度及泥温相位随深度变化特征

利用渤海中部两点一年中４个季节泥温观测资料，近似确定两测点海底恒温层泥温分别为１１．０℃和１１．７℃。认国泥温随深度变化可视为一垂向波－泥温波，并利用这一概念分析了泥温相位随深度变化特征，８＾＃，Ａ（Ｂ）平台测点泥温波波长分别为ｌ８＝８ｍ和ｌＡ（Ｂ）＝１０ｍ。研究建议，以０．５ｍ处多年泥温平均值作为海底恒温层温度。     

Remote sensing of breaking wave phase speeds with application to non-linear depth inversions

A number of existing models for surface wave phase speeds (linear and non-linear, breaking and non-breaking waves) are reviewed and tested against phase speed data from a large-scale laboratory experiment. The results of these tests are utilized in the context of assessing the potential improvement gained by incorporating wave non-linearity in phase speed based depth inversions. The analysis is focused on the surf zone, where depth inversion accuracies are known to degrade significantly. The collected data includes very high-resolution remote sensing video and surface elevation records from fixed, in-situ wave gages. Wave phase speeds are extracted from the remote sensing data using a feature tracking technique, and local wave amplitudes are determined from the wave gage records and used for comparisons to non-linear phase speed models and for non-linear depth inversions. A series of five different regular wave conditions with a range of non-linearity and dispersion characteristics are analyzed and results show that a composite dispersion relation, which includes both non-linearity and dispersion effects, best matches the observed phase speeds across the domain and hence, improves surf zone depth estimation via depth inversions. Incorporating non-linearity into the phase speed model reduces errors to O(10%), which is a level previously found for depth inversions with small amplitude waves in intermediate water depths using linear dispersion. Considering the controlled conditions and extensive ground truth, this appears to be a practical limit for phase speed-based depth inversions. Finally, a phase speed sensitivity analysis is performed that indicates that typical nearshore sand bars should be resolvable using phase speed depth inversions. However, increasing wave steepness degrades the sensitivity of this inversion method.     

测深误差度量模型和精度指标对比分析与评价

为确保海洋测深成果质量,实现不同涉海部门海洋测深数据成果的共享和融合,系统分析了不同规范测深误差的度量模型与方法,探讨了测深数据的精度评估模型和流程,定量比对了不同规范的精度评定指标。在测深实践中,明晰所采用的误差度量模型与方法,可避免概念混淆引起的成果失真;实例表明在测深数据后处理中,应同样重视先验式精度评估可减少引入系统误差。该研究有助于为国内各标准规范更新提供理论依据,有助于数据的统一利用和综合评估,加强不同行业部门数据的共享兼容性。     

Bragg Reflection of Waves by Different Shapes of Artificial Bars

Experiments are performed in a wave flume to demonstrate the Bragg reflection of linear gravity waves by artificial bars. Three different artificial bars with rectangular, triangular and rectified cosinoidal shapes are placed discretely on the seabed for measurement of the Bragg reflection. A series of experimental conditions including the number of bars, the pe-riodic bar spacing, the water depth and various wave conditions are tested. Key parameters influencing the Bragg resonances are investigated. The experimental data are compared with the values from both theoretical and numerical models. Some key parameters have proved to be effective in describing the primary resonances. Predictive equations of the charac-teristics for the Bragg reflection are proposed in this paper.     

基于GF5-AHSI遥感数据的横沙浅海水深反演

高光谱遥感水深反演是一种对传统水深测量方法的补充,具有方便、快捷、经济等突出优势。本文研究区位于上海横沙,属于典型滩涂浅水区,研究数据包括GF5-AHSI高光谱遥感数据和同时期的水深数据。通过数据变换和相关分析等方法提取建模参数,利用单波段比值模型、多元线性回归模型、最优标度回归模型和BP神经网络模型实现该区域水深反演,并对4种模型反演结果的准确性进行了验证和比较。研究发现：最优标度回归模型优于其他3种模型,R2达到了0.972,RMSE为0.47 m,适用于横沙浅海水深反演。     

我国周边海域典型海洋锋特征建模研究

基于海洋锋空间位置、水平分布结构和垂直扩展特征等时空特征参数,结合海洋锋空间结构几何模型,建立了区域海洋锋温盐三维结构快速重构特征模型,对黄海西部沿岸锋和东海黑潮中段锋锋区温度场进行了仿真计算,并与实测数据进行了比较分析,实验结果表明：仿真结果与实测数据符合较好,实验结果验证了特征模型的有效性和可推广性。海洋锋区声速具有明显的水平梯度变化,对声纳的水下探测和反探测产生显著影响,因此,需要建立实时估计获取锋区水下温、盐结构的方法。海洋锋特征模型能够快速有效地重构海洋锋区温度场,为实时获取海洋锋水下结构特征提供了方法。     

Ocean temperature climate off North‐East New Zealand

The ocean temperature field off the north‐east coast of New Zealand is studied to quantify the annual cycle and reveal the intra‐ and inter‐annual variability. The data used are repeat expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections between Auckland and either Suva or Honolulu which have been collected quarterly since 1986. These sections give temperature measurements between the surface and 800 m and Auckland and 30°S from 1986 to August 1999. The mean and annual cycle are compared with those from the NOAA World Ocean Atlas (WOA98). The results are similar; however WOA98 lacks the horizontal resolution to fully discern the East Auckland Current and North Cape Eddy, while the XBT analysis lacks the temporal resolution to discern higher frequency intra‐annual signals. The temperature variability in the mixed layer is dominated by the annual cycle, which accounts for 80–90% of the variance. The amplitude of the annual cycle diminishes rapidly with depth, from 2.8°C at the surface, to c. 0.1°C at 180 m. The phase of the annual cycle is retarded with depth, with peak temperatures occurring in February at the surface and in June/July at 180 m. Removing the annual cycle from the time series reveals the more subtle inter‐ and intra‐annual variability. This variability is of the order of 1°C in the upper 50 m, decreasing to 0.3°C at 400–500 m. The surface layer was cold between 1991 and 1994 (c. 0.7°C cooler than average), and 0.7°C warmer than average in 1999. The deeper ocean shows a different signal, being up to 0.3°C cooler in 1990–92, 0.3°C warmer in 1998, and c. 0.2°C warmer than average in 1999. The inter‐annual mixed layer variability is highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and also with inter‐annual terrestrial air temperature and wind measurements from northern New Zealand. In contrast, at higher intra‐annual frequencies, the mixed layer variability is not correlated with air and wind measurements. At these higher frequencies, the air temperature is better correlated with the sea surface temperature (SST) than with the bulk mixed layer temperature.     

Growth Aspects and Magnesium Carbonate Concentrations of the Reef Building Octocoral Heliopora coerulea (Pallas) after Transplantation

Abstract. An experiment to test C have's hypothesis on temperature dependent MgCO₃ concentrations in marine calcareous skeletons was undertaken by transplanting colonies of Heliopora coerulea. The corals were transferred from a shallow lagoon with high average temperatures to the outer bottom of a fringing reef, 16 m depth, with low average temperatures. Against expectation, a statistically significant increase of average mol % concentrations from 0.48 to 0.54 % for upper growth regions and from 0.49 to 0.62% for lower growth regions was obtained. Temperature records during the experimentation period and the above data indicate that the mol% MgCO₃ concentration in the skeleton of living Heliopora colonies increases when transplanted to an environment with a lower temperature average than that of their original growth site, and with seasonal temperature fluctuations which are smaller in the experimental site than in the control site. Temperature fluctuations at the control site were up to 2.5 times greater than at the experimental site for most of the observation months. This supports the conclusion that the parameters a) minimum temperature and b) temperature stability of the environment are essential for the incorporation of Mg into the carbonate skeleton matrix of marine organisms. Within this study the results of a quantitative chemical analysis of the carbonate skeleton of H. coerulea are presented and growth data of transplanted colonies compared with those from the control site.     

渤海中部海底泥温铅直分布特征以及与水温的关系

于１９９１年８月－１９９２年５月对渤海两个测点水温和泥温进行观测，对泥温的铅直分布特征、季节变化以及与水温间的关系进行初步探讨。结果表明，泥温（指０－２ｍ）的变化是由海水热含量的变化引起的，而后者又与太阳辐射有直接关系；泥温的变化幅度和位相一民水温和水深有密切关系。泥温几乎无日变化，但有明显的季节变化，其变化幅度远小于水温，且随深度的增加迅速减小；与水温比较，泥温变化相位随深度增加依次滞后，至２ｍ     

On depth and temperature biases in bathythermograph data: Development of a new correction scheme based on analysis of a global ocean database

The World Ocean Database 2005 as of May 2009 is used to estimate temperature and sample depth biases of expendable (XBT) and mechanical (MBT) bathythermographs by comparing bathythermograph temperature profiles with more accurate bottle and conductivity/temperature/depth (CTD) data. It is shown that the application of depth corrections estimated earlier from side-by-side XBT/CTD inter-comparisons, without accounting for a pure thermal bias, leads to even larger disagreement with the CTD and bottle reference temperatures. Our calculations give evidence for a depth-variable XBT fall-rate correction with the manufacturer-derived depth being underestimated in the upper 200 m and overestimated below this depth. These results are in agreement with side-by-side inter-comparisons and direct fall-rate estimates. Correcting XBT sample depths by a multiplicative factor which is constant with depth does not allow an effective elimination of the total temperature bias throughout the whole water column. The analysis further suggests a dependence of the fall rate on the water temperature which was reported earlier in the literature. Comparison among different correction schemes implies a significant impact of systematic biases on the estimates of the global ocean heat content anomaly.     

Improvement in the Determination of the Marine Geoid by Estimating the Bathymetry from Altimetry and Depth Soundings

Abstract

The contribution of bathymetry to the estimation of gravity field related quantities is investigated in an extended test area in the Mediterranean Sea. The region is located southwest of the island of Crete, Greece, bounded between 33^? ≤ ? ≤ 35^? and 15^? ≤ λ ≤ 25^?. Gravity anomalies from the KMS99 gravity field and shipborne depth soundings are used with a priori statistical characteristics of depths in a least-squares collocation procedure to estimate a new bathymetry model. Two different global bathymetry models, namely JGP95E and Sandwell and Smith V8, are used to derive the depth a priori statistical information, while the estimated model is compared against both the global ones and the shipborne depth soundings to assess whether there is an improvement. Various marine geoid models are estimated using ERS1 and GEOSAT Geodetic Mission altimetry and shipborne gravity data. In that process, the effect of the bathymetry is computed using both the estimated and the original depths through a residual terrain modeling reduction. The TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Surface Heights, known for their high accuracy and precision, and the GEOMED solution for the geoid in the Mediterranean are used as control for the validation of the new geoid models and to assess the improvement that the estimated depths offer to geoid modeling. The results show that the newly estimated bathymetry agrees better (by about 30 to 300 m) with the shipborne depth soundings and provides smoother residual geoid heights and gravity anomalies (by about 8–20%) than those from global models. Finally, the achieved accuracy in geoid modeling ranges between 6 and 10 cm (1σ).     

Changes in physical properties of a reservoir sandstone as a function of burial depth – The Etive Formation,northern North Sea

Rock physical properties, like velocity and bulk density, change as a response to compaction processes in sedimentary basins. In this study it is shown that the velocity and density in a well defined lithology, the shallow marine Etive Formation from the northern North Sea increase with depth as a function of mechanical compaction and quartz cementation. Physical properties from well logs combined with experimental compaction and petrographic analysis of core samples shows that mechanical compaction is the dominant process at shallow depth while quartz cementation dominates as temperatures are increased during burial. At shallow depths (<2000–2500 m, 70–80 °C) the log derived velocities and densities show good agreement with results from experimental compaction of loose Etive sand indicating that effective stress control compaction at these depths/temperatures. This indicates that results from experimental compaction can be used to predict reservoir properties at burial depths corresponding to mechanical compaction. A break in the velocity/depth gradient from about 2000 m correlates with the onset of incipient quartz cementation observed from petrographic data. The gradient change is caused by a rapid grain framework stiffening due to only small amounts of quartz cement at grain contacts. At temperatures higher than 70–80 °C (2000–2500 m) the velocities show a strong correlation with quartz cement amounts. Porosity reduction continues after the onset of quartz cementation showing that sandstone diagenesis is insensitive to effective stress at temperatures higher than 70–80 °C. The quartz cement is mainly sourced from dissolution at stylolites reflected by the fact that no general decrease in intergranular volume (IGV) is observed with increasing burial depth. The IGV at the end of mechanical compaction will be important for the subsequent diagenetic development. This study demonstrates that mechanical compaction and quartz cementation is fundamentally different and this needs to be taken into consideration when analyzing a potential reservoir sandstone such as the Etive Formation.     

长江口外海域冬、春季水温变化规律研究

收集了1963—1996年长江口外海域水温的观测数据,分析了该海域冬、春季表层、10m层、20m层和30m层不同层次水温的季节和年际变化规律,以及其间水温垂向结构的变化。季节变化上,表层多年平均水温在8月最高,3月最低,底层多年平均水温9月最高,3月最低。年际变化上,冬季在1979年存在一个由冷到暖的跃迁;4月水温的年际变化较冬季复杂,表层、10m层、20m层和30m层水温分别在1979、1973、1973和1975年发生从冷到暖的跃迁。水平分布上,冬季除东南角小范围表层水温降低外,沿岸及北部海区表层水温均升高,春季北部和南部中间海域水温升高,升温幅度由表层至30m层逐渐变小。垂向结构上,冬季表底混合均匀,表层与20m层的年际变化相关系数高达0.97,春季表层与20m层的水温差存在10年左右的变化周期。本文将一些可能影响春季水温年际变化的因素与海温进行了比较并发现,在冷期,春季表层海温与长江口外海域气温相关较暖期好,相关指数为0.79;而暖期的春季表层与20m层的水温差与净热通量相关系数较高,为0.65。     

国产抛弃式温度剖面仪(XBT)资料质量分析

国家海洋技术中心根据科研需求研发了抛弃式温度剖面仪(XBT)等一系列抛弃式产品.针对2014年8月份在西太平洋海域投放的XBT和XCTD所获取的温度数据进行对比分析,单剖面结果显示两者相关系数达到了0.95,在温跃层处出现温度差,断面标准差分析结果为200 m以上温跃层处较大而200m以下标准差较小,最大和最小标准差值分别为0.39和0.08.温度断面分析结果显示两者在同样的位置出现等值线的凹凸现象,对大洋水团特殊物理海洋现象描述基本一致.分析温跃层处两者温度存在偏差的原因有3个:不同传感器的不同响应时间引起的误差、深度测量公式的误差以及传感器本身的测量误差影响.国产XBT的数据质量较好,总体上性能能满足对环境复杂海域的快速走航观测,数据质量准确度和可靠性都较好.     

我国东海陆架地区新生代地层的热导率

对东海陆架区的浅表层柱状岩芯样品和多口钻井岩心样品的热导率数据按岩性、深度、年龄和孔隙度进行了统计分析。发现泥岩、粉砂岩和砂岩的热导率有所不同。在3000m以上，泥岩的热导率大于砂岩的热导率；而在3000m以下砂岩的热导率则大于泥岩的热导率。粉砂岩的热导率基本介于泥岩和砂岩之间。岩石的热导率和岩石样品所处的深度密切相关，随着深度的增大热导率数值增大。岩石的年龄影响岩石的热导率。在同等深度的情况下，年龄越老，热导率数值越高，但埋深浅的老地层热导率会小于埋深大的新地层的热导率。孔隙度和含水对岩石样品的热导率有很大的影响，岩石会因孔隙中含水而使热导率有非常大的变化。本文给出了饱和水热导率和干样热导率之差和孔隙度的回归方程。     

Forecasting of chlorophyll-a concentrations in South San Francisco Bay using five different models

Accurate and reliable eutrophication level forecasting models are necessary for characterizing complicated water quality processes in bays. In this study, the ability of coupled discrete wavelet transform (DWT) with artificial neural network (ANN) and multi linear regression (MLR) (WANN and WMLR), ANN, MLR and genetic algorithm-support vector regression (GA-SVR) models for chlorophyll-a level forecasting applications were considered. The data used to develop and validate the models were monthly chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data recorded from January 1994 to December 2013 were obtained from the NO.36 station located in the South San Francisco bay, USA. In the proposed WANN and WMLR models, the observed time series of Chl-a were decomposed to sub time series at different scales by DWT. Afterwards, the sub time series were used as input data to the ANN and MLR systems to predict the 1 month ahead Chl-a. Also the genetic algorithm was linked to SVR models to search for the optimal SVR parameters. The relative performance of the proposed models was compared together and the results showed that the WANN models were found to provide more accurate monthly Chl-a forecasts compared to the other models. The determination coefficient was 0.87, −0.04, 0.31, −2.36 and 0.24 for the WANN, WMLR, ANN, MLR and GA-SVR models, respectively. In addition, the WANN model predicted extreme Chl-a values precisely. The results indicate that the WANN models are a promising new method for eutrophication level forecasting in bays such as those found in South San Francisco Bay.     

Localization of autonomous underwater vehicles by floating acoustic buoys: a set-membership approach

This paper addresses localization of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) from acoustic time-of-flight measurements received by a field of surface floating buoys. It is assumed that measurements are corrupted by unknown-but-bounded errors, with known bounds. The localization problem is tackled in a set-membership framework and an algorithm is presented, which produces as output the set of admissible AUV positions in a three-dimensional (3-D) space. The algorithm is tailored for a shallow water situation (water depth less than 500 m), and accounts for realistic variations of the sound speed profile in sea water. The approach is validated by simulations in which uncertainty models have been obtained from field data at sea. Localization performance of the algorithm are shown comparable with those previously reported in the literature by other approaches who assume knowledge of the statistics of measurement uncertainties. Moreover, guaranteed uncertainty regions associated to nominal position estimates are provided. The proposed algorithms can be used as a viable alternative to more traditional approaches in realistic at-sea conditions.