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1.
前期海洋热状况异常影响2008年1月雪灾形成的初步研究   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7  
考察2008年1月雪灾发生前期全球海洋的热状况发现,强La Ni~↑na事件和北大西洋显著增暖是最明显特征。此外,北太平洋中部较常年偏暖,北极(特别是北欧海附近)海冰较常年显著偏少。利用合成分析和全球大气环流模式试验,研究了强La Ni~↑na事件的影响。结果表明,强La Ni~↑na事件能部分解释南方偏冷和降水偏多,及包括蒙古冷高压增强、青藏高原南支槽加深和西太平洋“负-正-负”的异常分布型在内的部分环流形势,但不能解释乌拉尔山阻塞的异常增强。模拟中等强度La Ni~↑na的影响并与强La Ni~↑na进行了比较,发现:只有当La Ni~↑na很强时,我国南方冬季偏冷、降水偏多的信号才显著;当La Ni~↑na强度只是中等时,这种信号将大为减弱。最后分析讨论了北大西洋异常增暖的影响,认为它对乌拉尔环流异常形成有重要贡献。因此,2008年1月雪灾的形成可能是包括强La Ni~↑na事件和北大西洋增暖等因素共同作用的结果。  相似文献   

2.
使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、中国气象局台站降水资料和GPCC降水资料,系统研究了在冬季平流层准两年振荡(Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO)调制下,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)不同阶段与中国夏季降水的可能联系。根据两者的位相和强度,可将它们的配置分为QBO西风/El Ni?o、QBO西风/La Ni?a、QBO东风/El Ni?o、QBO东风/La Ni?a。研究结果表明,在年际时间尺度上,ENSO和QBO无显著相关关系。冬季QBO西风位相时,El Ni?o发展年夏季,我国整体偏旱,而华南偏涝;衰减年夏季,华南、华东北部偏旱,东北、长江流域偏涝。La Ni?a发展年夏季,我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布;衰减年夏季,东南沿海偏涝。冬季QBO东风位相时,El Ni?o发展年夏季,长江以北偏旱;衰减年夏季,我国东部降水异常呈负-正-负的三极分布。La Ni?a发展年夏季,江淮和华南南部偏旱;衰减年夏季,我国东部沿海偏涝。ENSO是影响我国夏季降水异常的重要因子,而QBO的调制作用在ENSO衰减年夏季更为显著。相比冬季QBO东(西)风位相,QBO西(东)风位相时El Ni?o (La Ni?a)期间赤道西太平洋负(正)海温异常更强,衰减年夏季位于西太平洋的异常下沉(上升)运动和印度洋的异常上升(下沉)运动更强更深厚,西太平洋副热带高压范围更大(小),南亚高压更偏东(西)。   相似文献   

3.
使用1951年以来66 a的观测和再分析资料,通过合成分析的方法对比分析了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜(El Niño /La Niña)伴随正/负印度洋偶极子(positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole,pIOD/nIOD)发生年或独立发生年山东夏、秋季气温和降水的年际变化特征,结果表明,伴随IOD型和独立型El Niño/La Niña对山东夏、秋季气温和降水的影响在强度、范围、正负位相、空间型态上存在很大的差异。在气温方面,El Niño在pIOD的调制作用下对山东南部地区夏季气温年际变化的影响加强;El Niño与pIOD伴随发生时,山东秋季气温较常年偏高,而独立发生时气温则偏低,呈反位相变化;La Niña与nIOD伴随发生年夏季鲁西北气温较常年偏低,La Niña独立发生年夏季半岛东部气温较常年偏高,气温异常呈反位相变化;nIOD对La Niña的调制促进作用有利于山东秋季气温较常年异常偏高;850 hPa气温异常与山东表面气温异常有很强的正相关关系。在降水方面,El Niño在pIOD的调制作用下容易引起山东北部地区夏季降水偏少,但会削弱其对山东中部地区秋季降水负异常的影响;La Niña在nIOD的调制作用下山东境内降水都较常年偏多,但降水异常地域分布非常不均,鲁西北降水较常年显著偏多;独立型La Niña更易引起鲁西北西部、鲁中、鲁南大部分地区夏季降水偏少。850 hPa环流异常配合温度场异常对山东夏、秋季降水异常分布有一定的影响。  相似文献   

4.
ENSO发展和衰减阶段的陕西夏季降水异常特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
利用1961—2008年陕西78个气象站夏季 (6—8月) 降水资料、NCEP/NCAR位势高度场和风场月平均再分析资料,采用合成及相关分析方法探讨ENSO发展和衰减阶段对陕西夏季降水异常的影响,以期为陕西夏季降水的气候预测提供线索和依据。结果表明:陕西夏季降水异常对ENSO发展和衰减阶段的响应存在显著差异,El Ni?o发展阶段和La Ni?a衰减阶段,陕西夏季降水偏少; El Ni?o衰减阶段和La Ni?a发展阶段,陕西夏季降水偏多; ENSO不同阶段对陕西7月降水影响最为显著。比较而言,El Ni?o事件对陕西夏季降水的影响更加显著。在El Ni?o衰减、La Ni?a发展阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,东亚夏季风偏弱,而在El Ni?o发展、La Ni?a衰减阶段,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东,东亚夏季风偏强,El Ni?o过程对东亚夏季风强弱的影响更加显著。ENSO发展和衰减阶段通过影响大气环流变化和东亚夏季风的强弱,进而影响陕西夏季降水。  相似文献   

5.
El Ni?o(厄尔尼诺)事件对东亚和南亚次年夏季降水影响及其机理已经得到充分研究,但其对夏季青藏高原降水是否有显著影响还不清楚。本研究根据1950年后El Ni?o事件次年衰减期演变速度,对比分析衰减早型与晚型El Ni?o事件对南亚季风区与青藏高原夏季(6~9月)季节平均和月平均气候影响差异。结果显示在衰减早型次年夏季热带太平洋海温转为La Ni?a(拉尼娜)型且持续发展,引起Walker环流上升支西移,印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动加强,同时激发异常西北太平洋反气旋(NWPAC),阿拉伯海异常气旋和伊朗高原异常反气旋性环流响应,增加7~9月对流层偏南气流和印度洋水汽输送,导致南亚和高原西南侧降水偏多。衰减晚型次年6~8月热带太平洋El Ni?o型海温仍维持,印度洋暖异常海温显著,对应的印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动较弱,NWPAC西伸控制南亚季风区,阿拉伯海和中西亚分别呈现异常反气旋和气旋性环流,导致青藏高原西风加强,水汽输送减少,南亚北部和高原降水一致偏少。结果表明:(1)El Ni?o显著影响次年青藏高原西南部夏季季节和月平均降水与温度,是印度和高原西南部夏季降水显著相关的重要原因;(2)El Ni?o衰减快慢速度对南亚和青藏高原西南部夏季季节内降水的影响有着重要差异。  相似文献   

6.
太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系   总被引:77,自引:6,他引:77  
朱益民  杨修群 《气象学报》2003,61(6):641-654
利用 195 1~ 1998年的太平洋年代际振荡 (PDO)指数、全球海洋和大气分析资料及中国降水和气温站点观测资料 ,分析了太平洋年代际振荡在海洋中的特征及其与东亚大气环流和中国气候变率的联系。结果表明 ,PDO与东亚大气环流及中国气候年代际变化关系密切。对应于PDO暖位相期 (即中纬度北太平洋异常冷、热带中东太平洋异常暖 ) ,冬季 ,阿留申低压增强 ,蒙古高压也增强 (但东西伯利亚高压减弱 ) ,中国东北、华北、江淮以及长江流域大部分地区降水偏少 ,东北、华北和西北地区气温异常显著偏高 ,而西南和华南地区气温偏低 ;夏季 ,海平面气压在北太平洋的负异常较弱 ,而在东亚大陆的正异常较强 ,东亚夏季风偏弱 ,西太平洋副热带高压偏南 ,热带太平洋信风减弱 ,赤道西风增强 ,此时华北地区降水异常偏少而长江中下游、华南南部、东北和西北地区降水异常偏多 ,东北、华北及华南地区气温异常偏高 ,而西北、西南和长江中下游地区气温异常偏低。对应于PDO冷位相期 ,上述形势相反。结果还表明 ,处于不同阶段的ENSO事件对中国夏季气候异常的影响明显受到PDO的调制。在PDO冷位相期 ,当ENSO事件处于发展阶段 ,华南地区夏季降水偏少 ,东北地区夏季多低温 ,在其衰减阶段 ,华北地区和长江流域降水偏多 ,淮河地区降水偏少 ;  相似文献   

7.
利用1979-2015年海洋和大气再分析资料,基于夏季太平洋-日本遥相关型(PJ)指数,讨论了PJ指数在极端正负年份长江中下游降水位置和强度异常的不对称响应及其可能原因。结果表明:在PJ负位相年(对应El Niňo次年),长江中下游降水显著偏多,中心分别位于江淮流域和日本南部;而在PJ正位相年(对应La Niňa次年),长江中下游降水减少却不明显。研究发现:在PJ负位相年,中东太平洋、印度洋、南海地区海温明显偏暖,菲律宾海上空有异常反气旋响应,长江中下游地区有异常气旋响应;而在PJ正位相年则反之。在PJ负(正)位相年,菲律宾海异常反气旋(气旋)和长江中下游地区异常气旋(反气旋)明显偏强(偏弱),由此导致长江中下游降水位置和强度异常存在不对称响应。基于大气环流模式ECHAM4.8的敏感性数值试验结果表明,即使印度洋海温偏暖与偏冷程度相当,但由偏暖印度洋海温激发的菲律宾海异常反气旋也明显偏强,从而造成长江中下游地区降水偏多程度大于偏少程度。由此印证的事实是:El Niňo次年(PJ负位相年)长江中下游夏季降水偏多的预测技巧高于La Niňa次年夏季降水偏少的预测技巧。  相似文献   

8.
近百年ElNino/LaNina事件与北京气候相关性分析   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8       下载免费PDF全文
刘桂莲  张明庆 《气象》2001,27(2):3-6
通过对近百年El Nino/La Nina事件与北京气候相关性研究发现,El Nino/La Nina事件与北京夏季(6-8月)降水、平均最高气温(7月)和冬季(1月)平均最低气温之间相互关系显著。El Nino事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈负相关,与夏季平均最高气温呈正相关,造成降水减少,气温年较差较大,大陆性增强的气候特点。La Nina事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈正相关,与夏季平均最高气温呈负关,使降水增加,气温年较差减小,大陆性减弱的气候特点。  相似文献   

9.
关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究   总被引:96,自引:20,他引:76  
利用我国160个台站1951~2000年夏季(6~8月)降水和气温观测资料,以及NCEP/NCAR海温、风场和水汽的再分析资料,分析了我国夏季风降水和气温的年代际变化特征及其可能成因.分析结果表明,我国夏季降水有明显的年代际变化,在1976年前后发生了一次明显的气候跃变,从1977年到2000年夏季长江流域的降水明显增加,而华北地区和黄河流域夏季降水明显减少,出现了严重干旱.分析结果还表明,我国西北地区降水的振荡位相要超前于华北地区降水振荡位相5~8年,华北地区气候年代际时间尺度变化是从1977年起降水减少,气温上升;但西北地区从20世纪70年代开始,则温度升高,降水增多.此外,分析结果也表明我国气温同样有年代际变化,但不如降水年代际变化明显.作者还从热带太平洋SST(海面温度)的年代际变化及其对中印半岛和东亚上空水汽输送的影响,分析了上述我国气候年代际变化的可能成因.分析结果表明,热带中东太平洋的SST也有明显的年代际变化,从1976年以后热带中东太平洋海水明显增暖,出现了明显的"类似El Nino型"的SST距平分布,呈现出"年代际的El Nino现象".这种海温异常分布减弱了亚洲夏季风,从而减弱了从热带太平洋、中国南海和孟加拉湾向东亚的水汽输送,造成水汽输送在长江流域辐合,使到达华北地区的水汽大大减弱,因此引起长江流域降水明显增加,而华北地区明显减少,出现了持续性严重干旱.  相似文献   

10.
利用1979—2012年Hadley中心海表温度、中国2 474个台站逐日降水和NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,分析了不同类型ENSO事件秋冬季和次年春季中国南方地区10~30 d降水低频变率的变化特征。结果表明,中国南方地区10~30 d降水低频变率对不同类型ENSO事件的响应存在显著的季节差异。EP型El Ni1o的冬季和次年春季,低频降水变率显著增强; CP型El Ni1o秋冬季低频降水强度呈现相反的异常,秋季低频降水偏弱,而冬季则偏强; La Ni1a事件期间中国南方低频降水变率的变化较小且不稳定。进一步分析发现,ENSO对南方地区10~30 d低频降水变率的影响与西北太平洋地区季节平均大气环流背景场对ENSO的响应密切相关。相比正常年份,EP型El Ni1o冬春季菲律宾反气旋性异常环流的强度较强且范围较大,其西侧的异常西南风向中国南方地区输送了大量水汽,从而有利于低频降水的增强; CP型El Ni1o年秋季西北太平洋表现为气旋性环流异常,抑制了热带水汽向东亚大陆的输送,而冬季却产生了与EP型El Ni1o年类似的异常反气旋环流,只是强度有所减弱,因此中国南方地区低频降水强度在秋冬季呈相反异常。La Ni1a年菲律宾附近虽然存在气旋性环流异常,但强度较弱,因而我国南方地区低频降水变率的响应也较弱。  相似文献   

11.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.  相似文献   

12.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

13.
Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.  相似文献   

14.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.  相似文献   

15.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.  相似文献   

16.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.  相似文献   

17.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.  相似文献   

18.
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.  相似文献   

19.
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on  相似文献   

20.
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