基于GIS的棉花气候适宜性区划

采用陕西1981—2010年30a的气候资料,以8月上旬平均气温、8月下旬—10月中旬降水量、5月中旬—6月上旬日照、生育期大于≥10℃的活动积温4个因子作为陕西棉花气候适宜性区划指标。利用GIS空间分析及制图功能,在实现区划指标空间化基础上,采用模糊综合评判方法,对陕西棉花气候适宜性进行区划,陕西省棉花生态气候适宜性区划图分为适宜区、较适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区。陕西棉花气候适宜区主要分布于关中中东部及沿黄河的滩地,在适宜区内,应根据秋季降水预测情况,选择棉花中早熟品种,以避免秋霖危害。     

基于GIS的精河县枸杞种植气候适应性精细化区划

摘要：研究分析精河县枸杞种植的气候适宜性，为科学规划枸杞种植布局，充分合理地利用气候资源优势具有实际意义。利用精河县及周边范围内15个气象站1981-2020年逐日平均气温和最低气温资料，采用数理统计分析和GIS空间插值技术方法，在分析枸杞种植气候生态条件的基础上，筛选出≥10 ℃积温、≥10 ℃日数和≥10 ℃期间降水量作为枸杞气候适宜性区划指标，进而对气候要素指标进行栅格化。根据区划指标等级进行重分类，将各气候要素指标图层进行等权重叠加，获得精河县枸杞种植气候适宜性区划，结果表明，精河县枸杞种植区可分为最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区4个分区，最适宜种植区分布在精河县中部海拔400～600 m的带状平原区，该区综合气候条件非常利于枸杞优质高产；适宜种植区分布在沿最适宜种植区两侧海拔250～400 m和海拔600～800 m的中部平原地带，综合气候条件稍逊于最适宜区。建议在最适宜区和适宜区内发展枸杞不但产量高而且品质好。。     

卫辉市气候变化对冬小麦播期的影响

使用卫辉市48 a的气温、降水观测资料,结合冬小麦适宜播种的气候指标,分析了9月下旬及10月上、中旬气温的变化趋势,15、18℃终日的变化趋势,冬前≥0℃积温的变化趋势,冬季负积温的变化趋势以及播期降水量的变化趋势,结果表明:9月下旬及10月上、中旬的旬气温平均每10 a分别升高0.31,0.24,0.40℃;15、1...     

甘肃省春小麦生态气候适宜度在适生种植区划中的应用

用甘肃省春麦区31个县区1970~2000年的旬平均气温、旬日照时数、旬降水量、≥0℃积温、海拔高度等建立春小麦生态气候适宜度隶属函数和综合适宜度，结果表明:春小麦对海拔高度适宜度在0.15~0.85之间，最小出现在定西和古浪，最大值在金塔和敦煌。≥0℃的积温适宜度与海拔高度适宜度趋势基本一致。旬平均气温适宜度在0.35~0.56之间，说明气温对春小麦生产较适宜。用积分回归分析春小麦在不同气候类区不同生育时段生态气候条件的贡献系数，温和平川绿洲灌区光、温、水要素的平均贡献系数最高，温暖沿沙漠绿洲灌区次之，冷凉浅山半灌溉区、温凉半干旱旱作区最小。用生态气候适应性对春小麦的影响程度和依赖度及产量，确定生态气候区划综合指标体系将春小麦划分出5级适生种植区划，并提出利用和开发生态气候资源有效途径。     

甘肃省谷子气候生态适应性分析及适生种植区划

在分析谷子气候生态适应性的基础上,建立不同气候区谷子气候产量模型。确定影响产量形成关键时段的关键气象因素是≥10℃积温、8～9月平均气温、7月降水以及海拔高度和投入产出比等适生种植区划综合指标体系,据此划分5个谷子气候生态种植区。并提出提高气候生态资源的开发利用途径。     

旺苍县核桃种植气候适宜性区划研究

利用旺苍县50个地面气象站的逐日观测资料,结合旺苍县核桃种植气候适宜性需求,选取年降水量、年平均气温、年日照时数和年≥10℃积温作为气候适宜性区划指标,建立气候因子空间模型,运用GIS技术开展旺苍县核桃种植气候适宜性区划研究.结果表明:旺苍县核桃种植气候适宜性可划分为3类,即最适宜区、适宜区和不适宜区;最适宜区主要分布...     

陕甘定老区仁用杏气候适全区划

采用陕甘宁老区４８个县气象站１９６０～１９９７年观测的气象资料和陕甘宁老区１０个县仁用杳物修资料及实时调查数据,对仁用杏气候生态适用性进行了分析;研究确定≤０℃终日、≥１０℃积温、年降水量为区划指标;运用ＧＩＳ地理信息系统做了陕北仁用杳气候适生区划,在此基础上,对陕甘宁区仁用杏进行了气候适生区划,结果表明：陕甘宁老区各地均可种植仁用杏,但种植目的应有差异,在经济林气候优生区,仁用杏生长发育最为适宜,可获取较高且稳定的经济效益,主要分布于陕北东部黄河沿岸;在经济林气候适生区,种植仁用杏部分年份受害,能基本保证获得较好的经济效益,主要分布在陕北中东部及西部马连河、泾河原区;在经济与生态了修过渡区,开花期和幼果期冻害发生较频繁,需要合理选择建园区,管理得当可取得生态、经济综合效益,主要在白于山区和陇西地区;在生态林气     

陕甘宁老区仁用杏气候适生区划

采用陕甘宁老区 4 8个县气象站 1 960～ 1 997年观测的气象资料和陕甘宁老区 1 0个县仁用杏物候资料及实地调查数据 ,对仁用杏气候生态适应性进行了分析 ;研究确定≤ 0℃终日、≥1 0℃积温、年降水量为区划指标 ;运用 GIS地理信息系统做了陕北仁用杏气候适生区划。在此基础上 ,对陕甘宁老区仁用杏进行了气候适生区划。结果表明 :陕甘宁老区各地均可种植仁用杏 ,但种植目的应有差异。在经济林气候优生区 ,仁用杏生长发育最为适宜 ,可获取较高且稳定的经济效益 ,主要分布于陕北东部黄河沿岸 ;在经济林气候适生区 ,种植仁用杏部分年份受害 ,能基本保证获得较好的经济效益 ,主要分布在陕北中东部及西部马连河、泾河原区 ;在经济与生态林气候过渡区 ,开花期和幼果期冻害发生较频繁 ,需要合理选择建园区 ,管理得当可取得生态、经济综合效益 ,主要在白于山区和陇西地区 ;在生态林气候适生区 ,种植仁用杏以防风固沙、绿化荒山生态防护为主要目的 ,主要分布在宁夏西部、子午岭和黄龙山区     

气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究

综合利用前人研究结果与江苏地区水稻生长所需的光、温、水特性,提出了江苏水稻气候适宜性评价指标为适宜生长期、5—10月降水量、t≥10℃活动积温、日照时数;依据现有稻麦（油）两熟的耕作制度,确立了江苏水稻气候适宜性区划因子和分级阈值。基于1961—2019年江苏省及周边共85个站（市、区）的气象数据,采用模糊综合评判法建立水稻气候适宜性评估模型,并确定综合评估指数,利用ArcGIS的自然断点法,将江苏中熟中粳、迟熟中粳、早熟晚粳、中熟晚粳种植适宜区进行区划。通过30a尺度下的年代际分析发现,由于适宜生长期延长和活动积温增加,使得四个品种特性的水稻适宜种植区域均有所调整,其中晚熟粳稻的种植范围北扩到淮河以南地区。     

焉耆盆地种植酿酒葡萄气候适宜性分析

用焉耆县气象站基本资料分析了焉耆盆种植酿酒葡萄的气候条件,结果表明：焉耆盆地≥10℃活动积温为3566℃•d、7－9月水热系数为0.21、成熟期昼夜温差为16℃、7－9月平均气温和为62.8℃、日光能系数为5.9,各项气候指标均为种植酿酒葡萄最适宜气候区划范围。同时焉耆盆地具有独特的山地小气候和水域岸边小气候优势,能够生产出富有地域特色优质葡萄酒。焉耆盆地主要气象灾害是大风与春季霜冻,大风天气主要出现在4月下旬至5月,春季终霜大部分年份出现在4月21日前,越冬期间低温冻害影响不大。进一步对比分析焉耆盆地与石河子酿酒葡萄种植的气候条件,焉耆盆地气候条件优于石河子,主要表现在冬季平均气温较高,夏季气温较低,无霜期和≥10℃活动积温较多,降水量较少。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on