广州市空气污染影响因子与预报建模

利用广州市环境监测站2007-2009年的空气污染指数(API)及同期地面气象要素(大气能见度、10 min平均风速、最大风速、气温、绝对湿度、相对湿度、露点温度、气压、24 h降水量)观测资料和空气污染物(PM10、SO2、NO2)监测数据,分析广州市空气污染指数(API)与气象要素及空气污染物之间的联系,挑选相关因子,用多元回归法和径向基神经网络进行API建模,并对2009年1--4月和9-12月进行试报,结果表明:后者预测效果比前者优异,可作为广州市空气污染预报的参考手段.     

北京空气质量预报系统奥运模拟检验与应用

采用2007年8—9月空气质量数据,对CAPPS-3空气质量预报系统进行模拟预报检验。结果表明,从污染物浓度值的模拟预报结果看,SO2的模拟效果优于NO2和PM10;从API指数检验结果看,SO2的模拟效果较好,而PM10模拟效果略差于SO2;从API指数分级检验结果看,SO2的模拟效果最好,PM10次之,而NO2预报结果最差。如果将模拟预报的结果与提前两天的观测值进行对比,预报的准确率会显著提升。总体上看,CAPPS-3空气质量预报系统运行效果良好,经订正后,该模式在奥运期间空气质量预报中得以应用,并取得了较好效果。     

海口市空气污染特征分析及预报检验

利用海南省二次开发的CAPPS2.0模式，对2006年1月1日-2007年1月1日海口市逐日PM10、SO2、NO2污染浓度监测资料进行输出分析，得出海口市空气污染的变化特征。结果表明，污染物SO2和NO2的预报效果较好，而PM10预报效果较差。因此采用多元线性回归分析方法建立污染物浓度与气象要素的预报方程，并对PM10进行优化和校正，从而提高预报准确率。     

上海地区地面风向对空气污染物浓度的影响

利用2000年6月至2002年12月上海地区空气污染物浓度和地面风向资料，统计了月平均污染物浓度随偏西风频率的分布，两者具有一致的趋势。首要污染物：PM10平均浓度风玫瑰图显示高浓度对应偏西风向的出现，各季节均表现出此特性。由于冬、夏半年主导上海地区的天气系统的不同，分冬半年和夏半年统计了各污染物浓度日变化随风向日变化的均值和标准差，当风向由非西风转为偏西风或连续受偏西风影响时，污染物浓度有所上升，不同污染物间，PM10浓度对地面风向的改变较SO2和NO2更敏感。     

南京SO2、NO2和PM10变化特征及其与气象条件的关系

利用南京市2002—2006年大气监测资料,分析了南京市大气中SO2、NO2、PM10年变化趋势及月季规律,评价了南京市空气质量状况。结果表明:5a来,SO2质量浓度呈显著上升趋势,NO2质量浓度缓慢上升,PM10质量浓度明显下降;南京市首要污染物是PM10,SO2、NO2污染较轻;3种污染物质量浓度均以夏季最低。进一步研究不同气象条件下污染物质量浓度发现,污染物质量浓度与风速反相关,且东南风时浓度最高;降水对污染物有清除作用;雾、霾天气下污染加剧;气象能见度与PM10、NO2的质量浓度反相关;污染物有明显的"周末效应",周末质量浓度值较低。     

南京SO_2、NO_2和PM_(10)变化特征及其与气象条件的关系

利用南京市2002—2006年大气监测资料,分析了南京市大气中SO2、NO2、PM10年变化趋势及月季规律,评价了南京市空气质量状况。结果表明:5a来,SO2质量浓度呈显著上升趋势,NO2质量浓度缓慢上升,PM10质量浓度明显下降;南京市首要污染物是PM10,SO2、NO2污染较轻;3种污染物质量浓度均以夏季最低。进一步研究不同气象条件下污染物质量浓度发现,污染物质量浓度与风速反相关,且东南风时浓度最高;降水对污染物有清除作用;雾、霾天气下污染加剧;气象能见度与PM10、NO2的质量浓度反相关;污染物有明显的"周末效应",周末质量浓度值较低。     

铜川市空气污染气象条件分析

统计分析了铜川南、北市区近10a空气污染监测资料和对应的气象资料,并进行相关分析,结果表明:铜川市空气能见度与空气污染API指数(I)对应关系较为复杂,气温、气压、湿度、风等气象条件对污染物分布具有综合性影响。北市区能见度近3a有所下降,三种污染物的API指数I(PM10)、I(SO2)、I(NO2)10a来缓慢下降,表明空气质量在好转;南市区能见度年际变化不大,I(PM10)变化幅度较大。南、北市区I(PM10)、I(SO2)、I(NO2)均为夏季最低,冬季最高,春季次之;空气污染均是PM10最大、SO2次之、NO2最小。相关分析得出,南市区I(PM10)与相对湿度反相关性最好,I(NO2)与日平均风速相关性最好,I(SO2)与相对湿度相关性最好;北市区I(PM10)仅与空气湿度反相关显著。南市区冬季风越大,能见度越好;而春、夏、秋则相反,风速越大,能见度反而降低。年平均风速较大时,大气能见度条件相应较好,较大的风速更有利于大气污染物的扩散;而当相对湿度较大时,大气能见度较差。     

CAPPS模式在铜川空气质量预报中的效果检验

通过对2003年1-12月铜川市区、新区污染物监测值与 CAPPS模式预报值的对比分析发现,CAPPS模式预报正确率存在明显的要素差异,NO2预报正确率很高,年平均正确率在90%以上,SO2次之,年平均70%左右,PM10预报正确率较低,年平均55%左右;该模式预报正确率有明显的地域差异,铜川市区的预报正确率比新区明显偏低;同时该模式预报正确率存在明显的季节差异,冬半年比夏半年预报结果差,以SO2表现最明显.该模式空漏报率NO2最低,SO2次之,PM10最高,漏报率存在明显的季节差异,空报率季节之间差异较小,但在地域上空报率差异明显.分析了产生误差的原因.     

秦皇岛市空气污染与气象要素的关系

利用多因子分析和多元回归模型,对1998—2004年秦皇岛市城区空气污染物浓度逐日监测数据及气象要素进行分析,并调查污染源,得出主要污染物与气象要素的关系,建立当地空气质量预报。结果表明：上游西北地区是对秦皇岛市空气质量影响最大的污染源地;空气质量首要污染物PM10的峰值出现在4月,SO2的峰值出现在采暖季,NO2浓度全年稳定少变; SO2和PM10的浓度受风场影响较大,NO2最小;春季“南高北低”型气压场造成PM10污染指数全年最高;大于等于1 mm的降水对空气净化作用效果较小于1 mm的降水显著;春季气旋控制下,5级以上西风可形成中度以上污染,而非气旋控制下,6级以上西风才可形成中度以上污染。     

基于BP人工神经网络的鹰潭市PM2.5和PM10浓度预测模型

利用2015—2019年鹰潭市5个大气成分监测站数据和气象站地面观测数据,运用主成分分析法,提取气象要素、气体污染物对PM2.5和PM10浓度影响的主要成分,调整BP人工神经网络的隐藏层个数和隐藏层节点数,构建基于BP人工神经网络的鹰潭市PM2.5和PM10浓度预测模型。结果表明：1） 气象要素中,共提取3个影响PM2.5、PM10浓度的主成分,分别为相对湿度、降水,气温、气压和风速,其中湿度、气温、风速与PM2.5、PM10浓度显著相关。2） 气体污染物中,共提取2个主成分,分别为SO2、NO2和O3,其中NO2、SO2与PM2.5、PM10浓度显著相关。3） 所建立的PM2.5、PM10浓度逐小时预测模型在20 h内预测性能良好,预测准确率分别为88%、86%,逐日预测模型在5 d内的预测性能良好,预测准确率分别为94%、92%,准确率较高,具有良好的预报性能。     

利用红外辐射光谱反演大气CO2浓度的理论研究

依据最新的大气分子光谱数据集（HITRAN 2004）,利用逐线积分辐射传输模式,模拟计算了大气顶射出红外辐射光谱及其对大气CO2浓度变化的灵敏度,发现：大气CO24．3μm吸收带,特别是2241-2249cm^-1、2250-2258cm^-1、2259-2267cm^-1和2382—2390cm^-1波段射出的红外辐射,随CO2浓度的增加而显著降低,且很少受其他大气成分变化干扰,因此特别适于用来遥感探测大气CO2浓度的变化。根据最优非线性反演方法,反演获得了0-15km的大气CO2廓线,结果表明,利用上述4个通道的红外辐射值,可精确反演出自由对流层的CO2浓度变化。     

Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions from a rice-wheat rotation as affected by crop residue incorporation and temperature

Field measurements were made from June 2001 to May 2002 to evaluate the effect of crop residue application and temperature on CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions within an entire rice-wheat rotation season.Rapeseed cake and wheat straw were incorporated into the soil at a rate of 2.25 t hm-2 when the rice crop was transplanted in June 2001. Compared with the control, the incorporation of rapeseed cake enhanced the emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O in the rice-growing season by 12.3%, 252.3%, and 17.5%,respectively, while no further effect was held on the emissions of CO2 and N2O in the following wheatgrowing season. The incorporation of wheat straw enhanced the emissions of CO2 and CH4 by 7.1%and 249.6%, respectively, but reduced the N2O emission by 18.8% in the rice-growing season. Significant reductions of 17.8% for the CO2 and of 12.9% for the N2O emission were observed in the following wheatgrowing season. A positive correlation existed between the emissions of N2O and CO2 (R2 = 0.445, n =73, p ＜ 0.001) from the rice-growing season when N2O was emitted. A trade-off relationship between the emissions of CH4 and N2O was found in the rice-growing season. The CH4 emission was significantly correlated with the CO2 emission for the period from rice transplantation to field drainage, but not for the entire rice-growing season. In addition, air temperature was found to regulate the CO2 emissions from the non-waterlogged period over the entire rice-wheat rotation season and the N2O emissions from the nonwaterlogged period of the rice-growing season, which can be quantitatively described by an exponential function. The temperature coefficient (Q10) was then evaluated to be 2.3±0.2 for the CO2 emission and 3.9±0.4 for the N2O emission, respectively.     

我国西部清洁大气中SO2 和NO2的观测和分析

在我国青海省瓦里关大气本底基准观象台（海拔3810 m,100°54′E,36°17′N）,利用浸渍膜法采集大气中的SO2和NO2，使用离子色谱分析其浓度。1994年8月至1995年7月的测量结果表明，SO2和NO2的平均浓度分别为0.147×10-9和0.055×10-9,SO2和NO2两者具有较好的相关性，其相关系数r=0.87,它们的平均比值为2.6左右。SO2和NO2的浓度受季节和风向的影响，偏东风时浓度较高，偏西风时浓度较低。冬季SO2和NO2的浓度水平较低，而夏季浓度较高。     

A New Carrier Gas Type for Accurate Measurement of N$_{2}$O by GC-ECD

The accurate measurement of concentration is the basis for determining emission sources and sinks of nitrous oxide (N2O). The detection of N2O showed that the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2 biased the N2O response when pure nitrogen (N2) was used as a carrier gas for gas chromatography (GC) equipped with an electron capture detector (GC-ECD). In this study, laboratory experiments were carried out to explore how the presence of CO2 interferes with the accurate determination of N2O. The aims were to address the extent of the influence to try and explain the underlying mechanism, and to uncover technical options for solving the problem. Three GC carrier gases are discussed: pure nitrogen (DN); a mixture of argon and methane (AM); and a high concentration CO2, which was introduced into the ECD cell with a low flow rate based on DN (DN-CO2). The results show that when DN was used, the existence of CO2 in the ECD cell greatly enhanced the response of N2O, which increased with CO2 content and remained constant when the content reached a limit. Comparisons between the three methods show that the DN method is defective for the accurate determination of N2O. The bias is caused by ifferent electron capture mechanisms of CO2 and N2O and depends heavily on the detector temperature. New GC carrier gas types with make-up gases that can remove the CO2-induced influence, such as the DN-CO2 and DN-CH4 methods reported in this paper, are recommended for the accurate measurement of N2O.     

乌海市空气污染浓度的时间分布特征分析

利用2005—2007年乌海市区大气中SO2、NO2、PM10浓度的实测数据,分析了乌海市大气污染物的时间分布特征,分析结果表明:乌海市首要污染物是PM10,其次是SO2;从2005—2007年日平均值看:SO2、PM10呈下降趋势,NO2略呈上升趋势。SO2、NO2、PM10的浓度都有明显的季节变化。     

Hydroperoxides in the marine troposphere over the Atlantic Ocean

Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) and organic hydroperoxides (ROOH) were measured on board of theRV Polarstern during its cruise across the Atlantic Ocean from 20 October to 12 November 1990 (54° N to 51° S latitude) by the enzyme fluorometric method. The H₂O₂ mixing ratio varied from below the detection limit of about 0.12 ppbv up to 3.89 ppbv, showing a latitudinal dependence with generally higher values around the equator and decreasing values poleward. The shape of the latitudinal H₂O₂ distribution agrees well with an analytical steady state expression for H₂O₂ using the measured H₂O and O₃ distribution and a wind dependent H₂O₂ deposition rate. The ROOH mixing ratio varied from below the detection limit of about 0.08 ppbv up to 1.25 ppbv with qualitatively the same latitudinal dependence as H₂O₂. The observed ratio ROOH/(ROOH + H₂O₂) varied between 0.17 and 0.98 showing higher values at the lowest H₂O₂ mixing ratios at high latitudes. The measured H₂O₂ mixing ratio shows a significant diurnal variation with a maximum around 14:00 local time, explicable by a superposition of the photochemical H₂O₂ production with a constant H₂O₂ deposition rate. Four independent estimations of the average effective H₂O₂ deposition rate inferred from the H₂O₂ decrease in the night, from the midday H₂O₂ production deficit (as derived from comparison with a photochemical model and from the daily ozone loss), and from the offset in the latitudinal H₂O₂ distribution, were consistent. An episode of maximum H₂O₂ concentration suggests the possibility of its formation in clouds.     

FGOALS耦合模式两个版本的海洋热吸收与气候敏感度的关系研究

海洋在气候变暖过程中的重要性通常用海洋热吸收来衡量,热吸收的大小影响全球变暖的幅度。本文利用FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2（以下分别缩写为g2、s2）两个耦合模式的CO₂浓度以每年1%速率增长（1pctCO₂）试验,评估和分析海洋热吸收与气候敏感度的关系。结果表明:进入海洋净热通量（s2模式大于g2模式）会使得s2模式的海洋热吸收总体比g2模式大;更为重要的是,由于s2模式中的海洋热吸收主要集中在上层,使得耦合模式s2中的瞬态气候响应（TCR,或称气候敏感度）比g2大。当CO₂浓度加倍时,在两个耦合模式中,海洋热吸收的空间分布呈现显著性的差异,s2模式中上层热吸收明显比深层大,上层热吸收主要位于太平洋和印度洋,而g2模式中上层和深层热吸收差别较小,深层主要位于大西洋和北冰洋。进一步研究表明,海洋热吸收分布特征与两个耦合模式海洋环流变化有关。在g2模式中北大西洋经圈翻转环流（AMOC）强度强且深度大,在CO₂浓度加倍时,AMOC减弱小,这样AMOC可将热量带到海洋的深层,增加海洋深层热吸收。而在s2模式中,平均AMOC弱且浅,在CO₂浓度加倍时,AMOC减弱明显,热量不易到达深层,主要集中在海洋上层,对气候敏感度影响更快且更强。海洋环流导致热吸收及其空间差异同时影响到气候敏感度的差异。因此,探讨海洋热吸收与气候敏感度之间的关系,利于明确气候敏感度不确定性的来源。     

Parameterization of the Absorption of the H2O Continuum, CO2, O2, and Other Trace Gases in the Fu-Liou Solar Radiation Program

The absorption properties of the water vapor continuum and a number of weak bands for H2O, O2, CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, and O3 in the solar spectrum are incorporated into the Fu-Liou radiation parameterization program by using the correlated k-distribution method (CKD) for the sorting of absorption lines. The overlap absorption of the H2O lines and the H2O continuum (2500-14500 cm^-1) are treated by taking the two gases as a single-mixture gas in transmittance calculations. Furthermore, in order to optimize the computation efforts, CO2 and CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm^-1 are taken as a new singlemixture gas as well. For overlap involving other absorption lines in the Fu-Liou spectral bands, the authors adopt the multiplication rule for transmittance computations under which the absorption spectra for two gases are assumed to be uncorrelated. Compared to the line-by-line (LBL) computation, it is shown that the errors in fluxes introduced by these two approaches within the context of the CKD method are small and less than 0.48% for the H20 line and continuum in the 2500-14500 cm^-1 solar spectral region, -1% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) CO2 CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm^-1, and -1.5% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) O2 in the 7700-14500 cm^-1 spectral region. Analysis also demonstrates that the multiplication rule over a spectral interval as wide as 6800 cm^-1 can produce acceptable errors with a maximum percentage value of about 2% in reference to the LBL calculation. Addition of the preceding gases increases the absorption of solar radiation under all sky conditions. For clear sky, the increase in instantaneous solar absorption is about 9%-13% (-12 W m^-2) among which the H20 continuum produces the largest increase, while the contributions from O2 and CO2 rank second and third, respectively. In cloudy sky, the addition of absorption amounts to about 6-9 W m^-2. The new, improved program with the incorporation of the preceding gases produces a smaller solar absorption in clouds due to the reduced solar flux reaching the cloud top.     

SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION OF NO2 AND SUB-REGIONAL TRANSPORT DURING WINTER POLLUTION EVENTS IN HAIKOU, CHINA

An ensemble of satellite measurements, statistic data from government and meteorological diagnosis in regional background site (Haikou, China) has revealed the spatial and temporal characteristics of NO2 and associated synoptic transport patterns over southern China from January 2013 to February 2014. The result shows that: (1) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite products had a good correlation with observation NO2 in Haikou. The correlation coefficients between Observation NO2 and tropospheric column NO2 and ratio of TroNO2/ TotNO2(tropospheric column NO2/ total column NO2) had all passed the confidence level of 99.9% test. (2) TroNO2 over southern China has an obvious seasonal variation, which is closely coupled with regional meteorology in each season. (3) NO2 concentration in Haikou revealed three pollution periods during December 2013 and January 2014. The variation of NO2 concentration in Haikou is related to the meteorological elements closely. (4) Compared to the monthly mean meteorological fields of the pollution periods, the results indicate that NO2 pollution event in Haikou is directly related to the exogenous transportation from PRD region. An ensemble analysis of meteorological dynamic factors, wind vectors and backward trajectories during the pollution periods further verified this conclusion.     

台风期间厦门电离层变化的一次特例分析

文中利用中国气象局厦门电离层监测站的电离层频高图数据,研究了2007年登陆地点在厦门附近地区的3次台风登陆事件期间厦门电离层的变化,分析比较了台风登陆前后F2 层临界频率(foF2)的相对变化、电离层Es和扩展F出现率等,结果显示这3次台风登陆均导致电离层foF2扰动,偶发E层(Es)和扩展F的出现率在3次台风临近登陆和登陆后都有明显的增加.台风圣帕(Sepat)登陆前一天,电离层foF2出现了相对月中值达40%(约4 MHz)的增强,登陆后电离层foF2迅速降低到月中值水平;台风韦帕(Wipha)登陆后电离层foF2从登陆前的略高于月中值的水平迅速下降到月中值以下(降幅达30%)并持续4天.台风罗莎登陆前的2天内电离层foF2低于月中值,台风罗莎登陆当天电离层foF2恢复到月中值水平,随后foF2出现了1天的下降和连续3天的增强.初步分析认为由于台风登陆前后,强烈的海气、陆气相互作用可能影响到电离层高度,从而导致对电离层foF2、Es和扩展F等参量发生变化.利用Wang(2005)提出的CoP机制,可以较好地解释台风登陆导致foF2下降,但文中发现在台风临近登陆出现的foF2上升的现象,则需要进一步深入分析研究.