几种碘化银焰剂成冰性能检测

碘化银焰剂是人工影响天气作业中重要的冷云催化剂,目前国内使用的碘化银焰剂有多种配方,有必要对它们的成冰性能进行统一评估。本研究采用1m^3等温云室,对我国人影作业中使用的7种碘化银焰剂(编号为1~7号)进行了统一检测。结果表明:7种焰剂成核率的量级按每克催化剂计算在10^(10)~10^(13)g^(-1)(-8^-18℃)之间,用指数函数拟合能较好地反映成核率随温度的变化;在低温段(≤-16℃),各焰剂成核率较高,不同焰剂之间的成核率差异相对于高温段(>-16℃)要小;在高温段,3、4、7号焰剂也具有较高的成核率,成冰性能要好于其他焰剂;7种焰剂的核化速率不同,-8℃时90%的冰核完成核化的时间在7.8~18min之间,推断该温度下的成核机制以接触核化等慢过程为主。     

三种含AgI的气溶胶在水面欠饱和条件下成冰性能的实验研究

在水面欠饱和、冰面过饱和条件下，对三种含碘化银的冰核气溶胶的成冰性能进行了研究。实验是在2 m3等温云室中进行的。在无云条件下排除了接触核化的可能性，同时把冰晶中心有无冻滴作为辨认凝结冻结核化与凝华核化的标志。从实验得到的一些定性结果表明，这三种碘化银气溶胶在成冰性能方面存在着明显的差异。     

纳米碘化银在人工影响天气的应用研究III: 表征实验研究

针对新型纳米碘化银催化剂在人工影响天气中有较大的应用前景,采用粉末化学液相沉淀法在常温常压条件下制备了与冰晶具有相近结构的纳米碘化银(AgI)粉末,采用场发射透射电子显微镜和X射线衍射谱等对碘化银粒子的结构特性、尺寸分布和比表面积等进行了与成冰性能相关的实验表征.与目前用的常规碘化银进行了表征特征对比表明,该纳米碘化银粒子的晶格常数更接近于冰,尺寸在30～90 nm之间,具有较高的吸附能力和比表面积.     

国外零讯

用溴化银进行人工降雨通常人工降雨是在云中撒播碘化银。碘化银的成冰阈温是-2.5℃左右。这是因为碘化银晶格中“细胞”的大小要比冰晶的大一些。美国纽约州立大学研究认为,如果用溴原子来代替晶体结构的碘原子,则会产生大小与冰的晶格相近的品格。在碘化银中用溴原子替换30%左右的碘原子时,则成冰阈温可提高到-1℃。     

人工冰核的核化速率实验

如同成冰总数一样,核化速率也是催化剂性能的关键参数之一,对于科学设计和指导人工影响天气试验和作业有非常重要的意义,以前很少引起人们的关注。通过借鉴DeMott等使用的化学动力学方法,利用催化剂检测实验中时间特征等资料展开核化速率研究。结果表明,对于其他实验条件相同时,不同样品核化速率不同;同一样品不同温度动态特征明显不同:对于低温段(-16℃),形成冰晶对应快过程,主要表现是凝结冻结核化、凝华核化;而较高温度(≥-12℃)时形成冰晶是慢过程(接触核化、浸入核化机制)起主要作用。建议人工影响天气外场试验和作业中选择催化剂应关注其核化速率差异,根据实验目的优选具有不同核化速率的催化剂。     

人工影响天气碘化银催化剂研究进展

碘化银（AgI）类催化剂是人工影响天气外场试验和业务作业中使用最广泛的催化剂,其核化效率和核化机制在很大程度上影响催化效果。在总结美国、中国和欧洲多个国家利用云室和风洞研究AgI类催化剂的核化机制、核化阈温及成核率的室内实验成果的基础上,梳理利用室内实验成果发展的AgI数值催化模式,旨在为下一步优选新型高效AgI类催化剂和改进数值催化模式提供借鉴。AgI类催化剂核化机制包括凝华核化、接触冻结核化、凝结冻结核化和浸没冻结核化,其核化过程受大气温湿条件、催化剂粒子大小、成分等多种因素影响,并与催化剂粒子的燃烧溶液法、燃烧焰剂法和爆炸法等发生方式有关。目前国内外使用的AgI类催化剂含有不同成分,有多种催化剂粒子产生方式,催化剂粒子的核化机制和成核率有很大差异。将来应重点基于高性能云室和风洞,分析不同催化剂配方的核化机制和成核率,优选新型高效催化剂,改进AgI数值催化模式。     

小火箭携带介乙醛弹头爆炸成冰性能的初步鉴定

一、概况多年来,国内外在人工降水和消雹工作中,广泛使用碘化银作冷云催化剂。碘化银虽然是一种优越的成冰物质,但因过于昂贵,不适于大量使用。近年来,国内对介乙醛作冷云催化剂的试验研究工作进展很快,经实验室检验和飞机作业证明,介乙醛是一种成冰活性好、阈温高、价格低的有机物质,已开始成批生产和推广使用。     

几种稀土化合物成冰性能的实验结果

在人工影响天气工作中,国内外广泛地使用着碘化银,为了克服实用播种中碘化银气溶胶的某些缺点(如阳光引起活性衰减),也有采用水溶胶形式播种的,例如,我国内蒙近年来采用碘化银水溶胶播种。然而,两者都要消耗大量白银。为了寻找新的经济而有效的成冰催化剂,多年来各国不少研究者对许多无机和有机化合物的成冰性能作了实验研究。 七十年代初期,Matsubara曾报道七种稀土元素氧化物的成冰性能,并认为它们的     

含AgI人工冰核粒子的电镜分析

为深入认识当前人工影响天气作业中广泛使用的AgI焰剂的成冰特性, 利用电子显微镜对含AgI焰剂产生的人工冰核粒子尺度特征进行分析研究。利用环境场扫描电镜对焰剂颗粒的尺度分布和形态学特征进行研究, 利用场发射高分辨透射电镜纳米区域的X射线成分分析 (EDS) 对实验样品的颗粒结构特点和主要组成成分进行研究。实验结果表明:不同配方焰剂燃烧产生的颗粒谱分布特征有明显差异, 所取5种焰剂产生的颗粒平均谱分布, 其直径在0.02~0.50 μm之间的粒子数占98.96%, 即产生粒子绝大部分都可直接参加云内的成冰核化过程, 但其谱宽、峰值直径, 分布特征都不相同。透射电镜结果表明:焰剂颗粒的主要组成是KCl, 其表面附着AgI小颗粒, 该结构特征可能更有利于焰剂颗粒的成冰核化。利用中国气象科学研究院1 m3等温冷云室对AgI焰剂阈温对比实验表明:5种焰剂的成冰阈温在-3.5~-4.4 ℃范围内, 不同焰剂配方的阈温不同, 最大相差1 ℃。焰剂成冰核化速率主要由颗粒的大小 (均立方根直径) 决定, 同时受到谱宽、主峰位置等多种分布特征量影响, 改进配方时应综合考虑。同时, 由于高于-4.4 ℃时, 焰剂产生颗粒接触过冷水滴缺少活性, 即含AgI焰剂不适于云中较暖区的催化。     

一次浙江对流云催化数值模拟试验

为了研究吸湿性催化剂、碘化银催化剂及两者的联合催化效果,利用双参数三维对流云催化模式,对浙江南部一次对流云降雨过程分别进行盐粉暖云催化、碘化银冷云催化和冷暖混合催化试验,对比研究不同催化方案对对流云降雨的可能影响。结果表明:盐粉催化导致先增雨后减雨,主要通过盐溶滴与云滴碰并增长,及雨滴碰并和霰粒子碰冻过程消耗。在上升气流区和降雨前期进行催化的增雨效果更好,30 μm粒径的盐粉催化剂量为12.5/L时,可增加降雨量17.8%。在降雨过程的不同发展阶段进行AgI催化,表现出先减雨后增雨的催化效果。盐粉和碘化银的联合催化,由于两者催化效果的不同步,使得不同吸湿性催化剂和碘化银催化剂量配置会导致不同的催化效果。当30 μm的盐粉,催化剂量12.5/L,联合碘化银100/L的冷区催化,可取得19%的增雨效果。     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Our Warmest Thanks to AAS Reviewers 2014

正The editorial office of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS),on behalf of all AAS editors,would like to publicly acknowledge the people listed below who served as reviewers for the journal daring 1 September 2013 to 24 August 2014.We recognize that the time and work of the reviewers is the most important resource in academic publishing.The quality of our journal depends in a crucial way upon the reviewing process and therefore all reviewers'time and efforts taken to sustain the quality of the journal are greatly appreciated.     

Data selection using support vector regression

Geophysical data sets are growing at an ever-increasing rate, requiring computationally efficient data selection(thinning)methods to preserve essential information. Satellites, such as Wind Sat, provide large data sets for assessing the accuracy and computational efficiency of data selection techniques. A new data thinning technique, based on support vector regression(SVR), is developed and tested. To manage large on-line satellite data streams, observations from Wind Sat are formed into subsets by Voronoi tessellation and then each is thinned by SVR(TSVR). Three experiments are performed. The first confirms the viability of TSVR for a relatively small sample, comparing it to several commonly used data thinning methods(random selection, averaging and Barnes filtering), producing a 10% thinning rate(90% data reduction), low mean absolute errors(MAE) and large correlations with the original data. A second experiment, using a larger dataset, shows TSVR retrievals with MAE < 1 m s-1and correlations 0.98. TSVR was an order of magnitude faster than the commonly used thinning methods. A third experiment applies a two-stage pipeline to TSVR, to accommodate online data. The pipeline subsets reconstruct the wind field with the same accuracy as the second experiment, is an order of magnitude faster than the nonpipeline TSVR. Therefore, pipeline TSVR is two orders of magnitude faster than commonly used thinning methods that ingest the entire data set. This study demonstrates that TSVR pipeline thinning is an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to commonly used data selection techniques.     

Temporal vulnerability in hazardscapes: Flood memory-networks and referentiality along the North Carolina Neuse River (USA)

Social models of population vulnerability to disasters increasingly include the notion that vulnerability has a strong temporal component. While this temporality is typically conceptualized as objective (making vulnerability “dynamic,” “multiscalar,” and/or “historical”), it consistently fails to acknowledge that among stakeholders managing hazardscapes temporality is also a social process in which subjective experience of time may play a role in creating situations of population vulnerability. This paper proposes that the temporal situatedness of a population relative to past hazard events and the quality with which stakeholders engage hazard memory-chains combine to significantly influences its vulnerability to natural hazards. It is proposed that this temporal vulnerability is characterized by shared, population level potential for surprise and can be evaluated by exploration of time-series depth and temporal reference points in historical ecological narratives and documents. Based on ethnohistoric research conducted from 2002 to 2006 in flood-prone eastern North Carolina (USA), it is illustrated how temporal vulnerability was relatively higher in the Neuse River watershed located at the City of Kinston than surrounding watersheds. Due to the combination of factors including the damming of the Neuse River in the 1980s, outdated official floodplain maps, relatively unmonitored floodplain development, the stochastic timing of flood events (placing the last major flood more than a generation away), technological optimism, and turnover of floodplain officials and residents, local stakeholders were seriously misinformed about the space-time risks involved both before and after the disaster of Hurricane Floyd (1999) happened. To deal with this inconsistency, the temporal rarity of Hurricane Floyd as a “500-year event” has been motivated and embraced by many in an effort to continue life-as-is. The paper proposes that the concept of temporal vulnerability is further explored and used as key dimension in the vulnerability sciences.     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.